IMMR

[David Randolph]

David

Is this right that Sony will not use IMMR technology in the next playstations?

Best,
Vova

Sony already paid $150 M or so to IMMR for a perpetual license, it doesn't matter if Sony uses IMMR technology in the future or not, they already paid for it ... there won't be any revenues coming from Sony in the future.

In a patent filed to the United States Patent and Trademark Office last June, the new BlackBerry device will have a keyboard that retracts into the device in order to create more room on the screen, Mr. Sharma says. It will also have what is called tactile response mechanism akin to Nintendo's Wii controller that vibrates based on input from the user.

I'm sure IMMR will fight for its rights in the court of law and it will win. IMMR was into tactile feedback 10 years before RIMM even thought about it and has 600 plus patents covering all aspects of the technology.

Anyway, even if BlackBerry uses tactile feedback and doesn't pay a cent to IMMR, that doesn't change my investment case in IMMR shares:

300 million mobile phones using IMMR technology sold annually*$1 per unit = $300 M in revenues => $150 M in net income => $3 B market cap => 7 to 8 bags of profits for the Main Portfolio.

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

[notbeln]

FYI

http://reseller.co.nz/reseller.nsf/opin/0E10A30A80FCF1C1CC2573C80074B7F2

Vova

[David Randolph]

FYI

http://reseller.co.nz/reseller.nsf/opin/0E10A30A80FCF1C1CC2573C80074B7F2

Vova

Thanks for this link Vova

«9. The year of haptic feedback
When playing console video games, your handheld game controller shakes and rumbles to coincide with on-screen explosions, crashes, gunshots and grenade detonations. Motion conveys subtle information to the user. That "force feedback" is called haptics.

Haptics will show up with shocking frequency this year in cell phones and other mobile devices. In some cases, haptics will help compensate for the disappearance of buttons in cell phones. A little vibration will tell your fingers when you've successfully pressed an on-screen button as a substitute for the tactile feedback from a real button that actually moves. But haptics will also return to its roots by improving game play on cell phones.

At the start of this year, there were only two cell phones with haptics available from major U.S. carriers -- the Motorola RAZR2 V8 and the LG Voyager. By the end of the year, there will be dozens. The feature may even show up in a new iPhone this year. (Apple patents indicate a great deal of interest in haptics by the company.)

One way or the other, haptics will shake up the gadget industry in 2008.»

Despite IMMR's awesome technology, patents, business model and licensing agreements with 3 of the top 5 mobile phone manufacturers, the stock still turned bearish on the chart, falling 8.8% in today's session alone.

I was early when buying this stock and that translates into a 47% loss for the Main Portfolio holding IMMR. Fundamentally I understand what's happening:



The two analysts covering the stock still have their 2008 EPS estimates at $0.07, so investors look at this and figure the forward p/e is 151. But I think the $0.07 EPS estimate is a complete nonsense, since IMMR will go from zero mobile phones sold using its technology in Q3 2007 to potentially hundreds of millions in 2008. If not hundreds of millions in 2008, certainly in 2009.

I'm positive that 2009 EPS will be in the neighborhood of $5. This is $150 M net income divided by 30 million shares outstanding.

So, $5 EPS in 2009 plus the current $4.6 in net cash per share gives me a liquidation value of $9.6 per share in 2009. If the business ceased to exist in late 2009 it would still be worth $9.6 a share, in my view. So investors now are paying just about $1 per share, or $30 M, for the next 15 to 20 years of profitability, because I believe haptics will be with us, starting in 2008, for many years to come.

In other terms, IMMR is trading at just 2 times forward earnings, and it should be trading at least at 15 times forward earnings. But if you just look at the analysts estimates, then you would think IMMR trades at 150 times forward earnings, and then you would consider it expensive and not buy/sell.

Only time can bring the truth into the surface and justice to the stock price.

My lesson here is, as Peter Lynch would say "wait for the earnings, there's no point in buying too soon".

Despite the bearish chart, I continue to believe I was wrong on timing, but not on the long term outlook for this company/stock, therefore I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

[notbeln]

Alternative from AAPL:

http://www.intomobile.com/2007/10/25/apple-patent-filed-for-tactile-touchscreen-raised-indented-keys.html

[David Randolph]

Alternative from AAPL:

http://www.intomobile.com/2007/10/25/apple-patent-filed-for-tactile-touchscreen-raised-indented-keys.html

This doesn't change IMMR's investment story because Nokia will never buy a license from Apple, right? And Nokia sells 400 million plus mobile phones a year.

Probably IMMR is preparing a lawsuit against AAPL, like it did with Sony. Anyway, on this Apple issue, IMMR management says it is very different to apply for a patent (anyone can do that, even you or me) and to have an approved patent.

Thanks for the info

[notbeln]

Here we go!

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS176704+07-Jan-2008+PRN20080107

<Another product solution is Visteon's Integrated Center Panel, featured as
part of the sensory category, which ties together many of the vehicle's
technologies. It is the place where climate, audio and multimedia controls are
stylishly packaged for easy user interaction. This ultra-thin, twisted helix-
shaped touch panel uses field-effect switches to enable a clean, "dead-front"
look in situations when the center panel buttons do not need to be visible.
When a user's hand nears the panel, the vehicle senses it and the buttons
automatically illuminate to show an extremely user-friendly human-machine
interface (HMI). When a user pushes one of the buttons to select a function,
the switch is actuated and gives haptic feedback -- a tactile vibration like a
pulse -- to lend a more natural button feel and let the user know his or her
command is being processed. >


Best,
Vova

[notbeln]

How many will be in the market in 2008?!

http://www.vibetonz.com/

[notbeln]

Why author so pessimistic?
It's good news from Motorola!

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=238&mn=35371&pt=msg&mid=3835784

[notbeln]

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22545567

[notbeln]

Am I boring?

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.aspx?aID=102231.93798.114374

[David Randolph]

Am I boring?

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.aspx?aID=102231.93798.114374

Absolutely not notbeln, you're doing a great job here in IMMR's thread, thanks a lot

I've written too many times that IMMR can be a 7 bagger or so (10 bagger from today's close, to a $3 B market cap). Today I'll tell you about the risks to my prediction:

1) I estimate that IMMR will receive about 1%, or $1, for each mobile phone sold using its VibeTonz technology, but my estimate can be far away from the real number. It is possible that IMMR will receive not $1, but just, say, 10 cents per mobile phone and that would reduce my revenue projections to 1/10.

I thought 1% because SONY was convicted to pay 1.67% of the revenues it had on products using patented IMMR technology. Now IMMR can be signing licensing deals at 0.1% or even 2% or 3%, I'm not sure and there's no public information on this issue.

2) Instead of hundreds of millions of mobile phones, perhaps there will be just, say, 50 million phones sold using the VibeTonz. Using my 1% fee on $100 phones (on average), IMMR would get just $50 M in annual revenue, not $300 M which is my central case.

3) The third risk is that I've underestimated the costs of helping Nokia, LG and Samsung to install and produce the phones with the VibeTonz. I've always considered that IMMR's net profit margin will be really high, at 50%, since the company is just licensing an already developed technology. IMMR probably won't have meaningful production or marketing costs, but I'm not sure. Also, since the tax rate can be something like 40%, maybe 50% net profit margin will be unattainable. 

So, the variables of analysis in 2008, but especially in 2009, will be:

1) How much IMMR revenue in each phone?
2) How many phones?
3) At what cost?

I remain confident that IMMR's long term value will be much higher than the $300 M at today's close.

[Rmagos]

Hi Everybody
I was in holydays in the southdern  hemisfere (actualy in Salvador Bahia) about in one month and even my portfolio isn`t the MAIN in it all, it is very confortable to see all my picks (CIMT SDTH CHME IMMR ASTI) beeing  about 10%more than they was one month ago... surpassing all the rollover coast and gloom/doom the market has recently been
This is just to give thumbs up to David (or do I say AVE CESAR) for the long term scope investment he gave us...
By the way IMMR was upgraded today by Thomas Weisel to market weight from Underweight

[David Randolph]

Hi Everybody
I was in holydays in the southdern  hemisfere (actualy in Salvador Bahia) about in one month ...

That's a great idea Rmagos, spending the winter season in Brazil instead of Portugal ... my wife also has that desire, spend December, Christmas and New Year in the Southern hemisphere ... maybe next year

ven my portfolio isn`t the MAIN in it all, it is very confortable to see all my picks (CIMT SDTH CHME IMMR ASTI) beeing  about 10%more than they was one month ago... surpassing all the rollover coast and gloom/doom the market has recently been. This is just to give thumbs up to David (or do I say AVE CESAR) for the long term scope investment he gave us...

This is great for you Rmagos, but of course I'll remain accountable for the whole Main, which has been underperforming the SPY. But thanks for your kind words

By the way IMMR was upgraded today by Thomas Weisel to market weight from Underweight

IMMR is almost down to where it was before it won $150 M from Sony and 44% below the price it was when the terrific Nokia news was released, this is insane!!!

Just because the cash still isn't in the company's pockets it is clear that it will be ... in this case the market is obsessed with the multiple valuation and incapable of discounting the future.

I'll hold IMMR.

[la-onda]

fyi:
IMMR: Thomas Weisel Ups to Market Weight from Underweight; Analyst Notes
Monday , January 14, 2008 07:52ET
Issuer: Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR)
Analyst Firm:  Thomas Weisel Partners
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Market Weight (from Underweight)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their upgrade.

[David Randolph]

fyi:
IMMR: Thomas Weisel Ups to Market Weight from Underweight; Analyst Notes
Monday , January 14, 2008 07:52ET
Issuer: Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR)
Analyst Firm:  Thomas Weisel Partners
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Market Weight (from Underweight)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their upgrade.

Thanks for the information la-onda

Indeed, valuation makes sense. IMMR has about $140 M in cash and it is already profitable. The market cap is just $268 M, so the future earnings are valued at just $128 M. I say IMMR will profit more than that per year, starting in 2009

Anyway, IMMR is a good example of what "early" may mean when talking about small caps ... if the Bear wakes up people just look at the facts and disregard the future. And the current fact is that IMMR trades at about 100 times earnings ... of course, the company still didn't receive anything (well, almost anything), because the mobile phones equipped with its VibeTonz technology are just now reaching the marketplace. IMMR collects a fee for each unit sold.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term, despite the horrible chart.