MPET

[bula]

I bought back in today on this break and now own considerable shares at 3.03 (current price right now).  I think crude is getting ready to make another run and MPET has consolodated long enough.  Also there is pending good news on Northern Petrolium's Isle or Wright activities - they're MPET's drilling partner - with huge reserves possible. 

Although I would have liked to see a further retracement under $2.75, it just looks like the whole sector is about to pop.  Next week should be very interesting to watch.  I expect MPET will see new highs by the close today ($3.20+) setting up a great run for next week.

Good luck,
Bula

[wezard03]

MPET finished at $3.05. It is over 10 DMA ($3.01) and 20 DMA ($2.91).
During last consolidation (June 21-Juy 1), MPET cleared both MA on July 5 ($2.67).
With 2 day rally, MPET recorded 52 week high ($4.16) on July 7.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?mpet

Could anyone evaluate MPET's chart? I have no knowledge about charting.

[wezard03]

As bula said, crude oil finished strongly at $58.65 - 1.52 up.
It may be a sign of rebound to $60+ after bearish trend
since July 13.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/95

Some data says .95 up from July 21. Some data says 1.52 up.
It was caused by August future's expiration. Now we are talkiing about
September future. Do anyone know which date is expiratation of
oil future every month? Please advise me.

[wezard03]

Someone advised me to visit the following site to evaluate MPET's TA.

http://www.stockta.com/

Enter symbol MPET.

It looks good for possible breakout with strong support at $2.93.

[wezard03]

on yahoo message board.

Re: MPET CHART
by: davey576
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 07/22/05 08:43 pm
Msg: 20560 of 20568 
Hi Tracer,

Finally, a decent post from an intelligent guy.

Here's what I see - some of this may be obvious so bear with me.

MPET trades best using the 5 and 20 dma's. MACD is still somewhat bearish, but I think it has bottomed out at these levels and should start turning positive from here. MACD needs to break out of its downtrend to make new highs. Draw a line from the MACD high in mid-June to the beginning of July, and you'll see the downtrend I'm referring to (hope this makes sense).

Volume started to pick up today and should gradually increase. Stochastics are turning up as well, which is a great sign of MPET coming out of oversold.

What I also see is a bullish flag in the formation with resistance somewhere in the $4.10 area. Once we breakout of this area of resistance, we should easily see the $6 range.

My commodities trading system also posted a strong buy signal yesterday right before the close. The system has a winning rate of 75% and has thus far returned over 110% in the past four months. Crude is signalling the start of a major uptrend, which bodes well for MPET and the rest of the O&G plays.

I also have USEY and DESC in my portfolio as new purchases today, but MPET continues to be my biggest holding.

Disclosure: I hold 20,500 of MPET at a cost average price of $3.11.

[wezard03]

Oil sector (OIX) recovered and finished on July 22 at $516.08 week high from
$500.32 week low recorded on July 18.

The following chart shows a sign of Oil sector's outperform over Bio Tech sector.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EOIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=BBH

Biotech sector (BBH) rallied strongly until July 20 from July 1 with a gain of 15%.
Moved from $168.29 July 1 closing to $194.37 July 20's high.

But it pulled back to $189.75 from $194.37 year high recorded on July 20.
It is 2.4% decline.

[wezard03]

25 July 2005
Drilling Update

Northern Petroleum Plc ("Northern") announces that it has been advised by British Drilling and Freezing Limited that it has commenced to rig-down its rig no. 28 preparatory to mobilisation of that rig to the Sandhills-2 well-site on the Isle of Wight.

The Sandhills-2 appraisal well is being drilled at a location on licence PEDL 098 about 1km. to the south of the Sandhills-1 well drilled in 1982 by British Gas which logged an oil column in the Great Oolite and from the sidewall cores taken at the time in that formation Northern recovered oil.

Following the drilling of Sandhills-2 the rig will be moved to the Bouldnor Copse-1 well site near Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight to drill a deeper and potentially larger exploration prospect in the Triassic Sherwood Sandstone on licence PEDL 089.

http://northpet.com/news/news-2005/news-25-07-05.html

MPET (Magellan Petroleum) has 22.5% of interest at the Isle of Wight.

[wezard03]

as soon as the rig arrives in the Sandhills-2 well-site on the Isle of Wight.

Here is a good comment at Yahoo message board regarding Press Release of Northern Petroleum.

Rig 28 announcement
by: pennystock1949
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy
07/25/05 10:31 am
Msg: 20859 of 20860
 
MPET is not about to post News about a rig being demobilized and being shipped to Sandhills it ISN'T NEWS. Until the rig arrives there really isn't any news to post. I mean it would be like MPET releasing PR saying they put an order in for a RIG for a drill site. I mean that is just not news that would affect the price of stock. Now once the rig gets to Sandhills and is set up and they Spud the well now that is news that needs to be release. Be patient rig doesn't get there till Thurday or Friday 2 days to set it up probably Spud early next week the 30 days to drill the 1st well. So you are talking about needing to sit on this stock for over a month before any news will come out that will cause a major move up in price

[wezard03]

The downtrend has been changed to uptrend. $60+ is soon.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/95

[bula]

Adding MPET at 2.87 and bought GEOI at 14.66.  OSX.X is near all time highs and crude has retraced nicely.  Most of these babies have also fallen back to their 13 day EMA.  Several tropical storms are brewing in the atlantic after a brief hiatus which should stir things up in the coming days. 

The time is now.  My opinion is momo will build this week and next week will see another hurricane pop in crude on its way to $70 by Sept.

Happy trading everyone,
Bula

[Melf Elf]

Thanks for your good input on these, Bula.  Applause.  Oddly, this morning, I looked at the other two, BDCO and ABLE.

I had a nice trade in BDCO and have been looking to get back in.  It's at important trendline support.  A little while ago, it was at 3.03 BID... 3.07 ASK, but volume was nothing.  Right now, only 68,000 shares traded.  It's too tough to get a decent fill on these thinly traded stocks on any kind of order in size, so I left it alone. 

It's now at 3.08 BID...3.09 ASK.

In addition to being at trendline support, MACD has come down to the signal line, and will turn up here on any rally.  That's usually a good technical confirmation.

Here's the MACD backtest of the signal line, then the chart showing trendline test:

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1122477896125?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:BDCO&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

I don't like ABLE here, Bula.  It had an outstanding rally of 984% just since February of this year, but it broke the validated trendline from that low on July 18.

[bula]

Thanks for the input Melf.  I agree with you comments on ABLE.  Hence, I am not trading that one either.  However, when the sector goes, ABLE will follow -- just not as much.  BDCO somewhat the same.  It moves but I just don't think it trades as well as MPET or GEOI - which for a trader like me, thats all I really want.  Higher probabilities.

MPET I like because it seems to get a higher beta from being a trader darling.  MPET also has pretty clean books too with no debt.  That $2.75 support has been strong as of late and several prime drilling activities are about to start.  PRs on these should be imminent.

GEOI I like for the low float and seems to have regular (and large) swing traders in it that keep the support levels more consistent.  At this level, I can easily see a swing to $20 if crude pops.

Cheers and Good luck,
Bula

[bula]

The OSX.X (Oil services Index) is flying to new all time highs today.  What a finish.  I grabbed more MPET at 2.76 and now have an avg of 2.85.   MPET intraday is very weak, but that $2.75 has been a great support level so far for 2 weeks.  If it finally busts, we may see a quick drop to the $2.5s.  If it happens i'll be all over that.  If not, it only strengthens the consolodation level further .. coiling the breakout higher.

I really feel oils are setting the table here for a real nice run.
Bula

[VikingFan]

I agree on not liking ABLE here.  In addition to the technicals, ABLE is a joke fundamentally up here.  It has something like 900%+ dilution at $3 coming with their acquisition of the truck stop company and some financings.  It has traded with oil stocks, but it really shouldn't.  Take a look at the filings and the financials and you'll see that no way is it worth anywhere near where it's trading now.  It does have lots of shorts in it because of this, which has made it spike at times, but at some point ABLE will be a lot lower.