3SOF

Maestro · November 08, 2006, 01:02:40 PM

Quote from: Leaira on November 08, 2006, 11:45:15 AM
I have a contingency stop order to sell the contracts if the stock drops below the 5EMA, which is about 54.80.

Thank you, Leaira. Since I also bought some of the same call yesterday you now have me to help you pray that the price moves up nicely by the time the call expires in December.

Maestro

David Randolph · November 08, 2006, 04:25:20 PM

PCU successfully tested the $54.96 (or in round terms, $55) support, prior resistance, and recovered some ground. Everything is set now for the stock to resume its bullish trend.

Due to money management tactics I keep the plan of not letting a profit turn into a loss, so I'll sell PCU if it touches $54.

David Randolph · November 09, 2006, 06:23:34 PM

I'm very glad that everything is turning out fine for our fellow members that play options

But I continue to warn that the risk is extremely high there and most ventures will have a dramatic end in financial terms. The stocks game is hard enough if you ask me.

PCU did what it should do, given its sound fundamentals, which is to close at a new all time high. No doubt I'll continue letting profits run.

Leaira · November 09, 2006, 09:13:31 PM

I took a $1600 profit on my call options today. I'm looking for some bearish trades now. I think the market is about to make a move down.

Leaira

tokyopua · November 09, 2006, 09:23:44 PM

Quote from: Leaira on November 09, 2006, 09:13:31 PM
I took a $1600 profit on my call options today. I'm looking for some bearish trades now. I think the market is about to make a move down.

Leaira

Congrats and applaud on that options profit Leaira, Niiiiice!

I agree that there was a bit of a "climax top" feel to the market today, but I had that feeling a few times recently and was always surprised that the market kept going higher. If we see a few more dips that dont get met with buying, and a few more high volume distribution days, then I think the market starts to go down.

David, could we at some point get your opinion of the overall market, maybe in the market indices section?

David Randolph · November 10, 2006, 04:55:12 PM

Leaira did well on selling those calls near PCU's high yesterday. Unfortunately the announcement of a strike in Peru took my profits away from the stock. I was stopped out at $54, taking just a 0.37% gain that barely pays commissions.

I don't think this is a valid motive to dump such an attractive stock, though. I'll be looking to buy it back over the coming days/weeks. Perhaps I should have given more room for it to fluctuate, we'll find out next week.

thai626 · November 13, 2006, 10:08:25 PM

Hey David,

I bought PCU today at $52.5

I felt like I bought it a little high but we'll see. Right now it looks pretty good

Will be holding out like you said for $70...........at what value are you looking to getting back in PCU? Thanks!

Thai

thai626 · November 14, 2006, 10:13:33 AM

Can someone explain the price action with PCU? Does it concern something with dividends?

I mean, yesterday it closed at 53.xx and today it shows a netgain of 1.xx yet the price only 52.xx.

How does this stuff all work?

Melf Elf · November 14, 2006, 10:54:06 AM

Quote from: thai626 on November 14, 2006, 10:13:33 AM
Can someone explain the price action with PCU? Does it concern something with dividends?

Thai,

Yes, PCU went ex-dividend today. The "ex" means that they "take away from" today's price the amount of the dividend, which is $1.375 per share. You will be paid that amount. It will be on your statement, and also on your year-end statement. You need to report it next spring when you pay taxes.

David Randolph · November 14, 2006, 11:36:46 AM

Quote from: thai626 on November 13, 2006, 10:08:25 PM
Hey David,

I bought PCU today at $52.5

I felt like I bought it a little high but we'll see. Right now it looks pretty good

Will be holding out like you said for $70...........at what value are you looking to getting back in PCU? Thanks!

Thai

I'm thinking of jumping back in soon, still don't know at what price (will try to get it around support like the 50 day SMA). Yes, the stock is ex-dividend today, that explains the fall.

Good luck !

nullzero · November 14, 2006, 12:12:53 PM

Inflation numbers might have something to do with the sell off?

David Randolph · November 16, 2006, 03:30:59 AM

I got this quote from my initial analysis of PCU:

QuoteThe short term trend is up. PCU is poised to breakout to new highs. As support we have the $49.67 level, the 200 day SMA and an ascending trendline.

Yesterday's low was $49.64, so we hit support. As I think the long term trend will continue to be up for PCU, I should buy at support. I wasn't able to recommend buying back PCU yesterday, but I'll do it today.

6.66% of capital, as always. At or near the open, say, between $50.50 and $51.25.

David Randolph · November 16, 2006, 06:00:05 PM

PCU has 3 supports working on this area:

1) $49.67 was a previous resistance level, now it's support;
2) This is the 50% fibonacci retracement level of the last advance phase that took the stock from a low of $41.63 to a high of $58.38;
3) A short term ascending trendline, as you can see on the chart below.

I love to buy stocks at short term support areas, especially when they have rock solid fundamentals and a long term ascending trend on the share price. I'll continue holding PCU without any stop, at least for now, because I don't want to be shaken out of the position by a possible minor and secondary move.

Melf Elf · November 17, 2006, 05:40:43 AM

David,

I've been watching CUP since you selected PCU for the 3SOF portfolio, thinking that it might be a real nice percentage gainer if it could follow PCU's lead, and break out of this Falling Wedge to the upside.

Instead, CUP rallied to the top of the pattern right after you selected PCU, and was unsuccessful in its breakout attermpt at TRIPLE validated resistance (the three red arrows). It has rolled over to the downside, the 50/200DMAs made a Bearish Cross yesterday, and CUP is threatening to break the pattern to the downside.

I'll be interested to see if CUP can find support at the bottom of the pattern, then breakout above its recent high of 4.05, and rally with PCU.

The technicals look very weak, though. MACD rolled over and crossed its signal line, from below zero, along with the 50/200DMA Bearish Cross.

David Randolph · November 18, 2006, 05:31:50 PM

Hi Melf

Although their names are very similar, PCU (Southern Peru Copper) and CUP (Peru Copper) are completely different companies. PCU will have revenues of about $5.47 B in 2006. PUC will have $0 in revenues

PUC isn't mining anything yet, but it is a $389 M market cap.

So it's not surprising to see PUC's recent price action:

Coming back to PCU, the stock is still consolidating on its support area. After an intraday sell off, copper prices rebounded late in the day finishing higher on the session. PCU is way undervalued at this point and will push higher to new all time highs above $60. No stops here, holding for the long term.

News:

PCU