NFLD - Options

[Samantha Stephens]

Hey - after the close ... or when you get a chance, can you check out my other posts in the options folder. I think I might have found a couple others that may turn out to be just like this. I'd REALLY appreciate your masterful comment.
-Samantha

[ScottishTrader]

OK, but I haven't got any more money to spend!! I'm margined up to the hilt as it is (oh dear....)

As far as NFLD goes, you're absolutely right, it did tag the upper channel line, I really didn't expect it to do so so quickly! But if you ask me, it just made a break through major resistance at 15, and has some serious bull power.  I'm hanging onto this one for now, as if the news is good (which this buying frenzy suggests it might be) then it could gap or break right out of the channel - who knows, but for now, I like this action 

[Samantha Stephens]

SWEET! You have time to check them out. The options crystal ball isn't foretelling a move on them until January...

[Leaira]

Boy this charting stuff really works! My daily upper resistance line is at $16.36 ... and that's where it hit and fell.

What do you do now??
-Samantha

How did you calculate that?  Please explain.

Thanks!
Leaira

[Samantha Stephens]

I didn't calculate it, I took it off of my daily chart upper resistance line . I started drawing my line from 4/20/06, with a touch on 7/11/06 ... 10/6, 10/9, 10/10 and a touch today.

[Samantha Stephens]

Check out the picture at the very bottom of this string. I'm not a chartist, so I gave it a shot. My current support is at $12.15 and resistance is at $16.36.

There might be other patterns in there. I'm just not sure about pattern charting yet ... I'll brush up this weekend.
-Samantha

[ScottishTrader]

i think you forgot to attatch the chart, unless I have to pull the string from here....

[Samantha Stephens]

It's WAY at the bottom of the string ... like my first post at the bottom. If you can't see it, let me know and I'll repost.

[ScottishTrader]

oh RIGHT!! you mean at the TOP of the string (sorry got confused with the tops and bottoms).  I think they are all good for NFLD, and look pretty similar to what I was thinking (posted in the NFLD stock picking thread).  The only thing is that the channel on the weekly chart didn't break to the downside on that last test - not quit sure why yours looks like it did.  Using a semi-log scale on the weekly chart should be appropriate, but normally I try both, just to see what "fits" better - somwtimes you see completely different things depending on what scale you use, which gives you an idea as to what scale "the market" is using when respecting trendlines.  My best advice is to just start charting EVERYTHING  look for tredlines/support/resistnace everywhere, and you start to get used to it and patterns pop out more easily. 

Just an options related question - I was having a look at the SPWR Jan07 35 calls - they look pretty good value right now at 5.45 - only a 45c premium on yesterdays closing price (and better value than the Jan07 40 calls).  My analysis suggests we sould see $42 very shortly, if not higher, and their revs should expand substantially over 2007.  But i don't know what the implied volatility or delta statistics suggest.  Can you give me any help there?

Oh and by the way, I haven't had time to look at your other posts in the options folder yet (it ain't thanksgiving here, but still pretty busy), but I will get to them as soon as I can.  Have a happy thanksgiving and don't eat too much turkey

[Samantha Stephens]

Do you have a catalyst for SPWR? You need it to move quickly and without a catalyst, I don't usually consider options. On the monthly chart, it looks like the chart has double bottomed ... but it's all time high is only $45. I think a better time to have bought options would have been when the stock surpassed the peak of the bottom at $34.25 to catch the recent run up. Not so sure I'd do it here ... It may be interesting as it gets closer to the highs? Nothing in the options is telling me big move soon.   

On all the stocks I've mentioned, I don't always know what the catalyst is ... but I know there's something lurking out there. 

Leaira may be a better resource...
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

Sorry - I posted and then deleted ... cause I thought I put it on the wrong thread. This still stands:

NFLD is hanging in there ... and on a really bad day in the market...on no news and the option IVs are still really high in Dec/Jan, etc. Keep an eye on this one. Something is coming ... good or bad... not sure when. Not very helpful ... am I??
-Samantha

[ScottishTrader]

Hmmm... I got absolutely killed today.  Stopped out of 6 stocks including NFLD.  Not sure if I want to re-enter yet despite it acting strong later in the day.  I think I need soem time to lick my wounds.  ouch today hurt

[Samantha Stephens]

Buddy...
I saw the dip at the open, so I checked the other thread and it said your stop was at 14.46 ... so I figured you were safe with the dip to 14.91. Did you cancel your stop and bail or did you raise it? I still think this is going to be choppy until we hear what the news is. I'm totally bummed now. This was a really bad day for everyone that wasn't short. I'm always astounded when the DOW is down 150 points ... and nobody cares that the NASDAQ is down 50 ... if the NASDAQ was at the same level as the Dow ... it would be the equivalent of being down like 250 points. That's a hard day to be long in anything...
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

Another rough opening for NFLD and it caught a downgrade to sell. I don't think this is the big news, but it should make it hard hold for a while...
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

I've updated the title to include Options, so everyone is clear that this is a post in the options folder.
-Samantha