NFLD - Options

[yworkcb]

    If you are going to trade NFLD options or stock at this point in time I would suggest visiting the NFLD board at http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1666&pt=m before your trading day starts .At this point in time with news expected soon major forces are trying to manipulate the price of the options and stock.The so called analyst that filed the downgrade the other day was actually filing his first report for a company that pimps the reports for hedge funds ...sorry if I violated any protocols  but this is my first post here .....I like the charts that you and Scottish Trader post and look forward to seeing them updated ..... You should never drink and trade because you might spill your drink !

[Samantha Stephens]

Thanks for the link. Someone sent that to us the other day ... but maybe I was having a blond moment and couldn't figure out how to navigate the site. hahahahaha

Is this the downgrade your talking about? Or is there another?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061128/northfield_labs_mover.html?.v=1

I don't know what to make of the comments - seems that if the trial had failed ... we would have heard that the trial had been prematurely ended ... and I haven't heard anything like that ... yet? I'm not in the stock either way ... but I'm hopeful for the trial. It just seems really necessary.

Here are the pertinent reminders - for those tracking on the stock / options....

I found an earnings date on clearstation ... but nothing official - January 8, 2007

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=91374&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=936711&highlight=
Northfield Laboratories Presentation at the BMO Focus on Healthcare 2006 Conference to Be Webcast Live
EVANSTON, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 29, 2006--Northfield Laboratories Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLD) announced today that Steven A. Gould, M.D., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the BMO Focus on Healthcare 2006 Conference on Wednesday, December 6, 2006, at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Interested investors may access the live webcast of the presentation at www.northfieldlabs.com. A replay of the presentation will be available for two weeks.

-Samantha

[yworkcb]

      The NFLD board on http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1666&pt=m is the best location for info on NFLD . The upcoming meeting that is being web cast ( BMO Focus on Healthcare 2006  ) that you linked to is an institutional investors broadcast which usually come with a slide show presentation by the CEO an sometimes a Q and A . The trial ended last summer and all we are waiting on are the top line results due before the end of this month .The options trading is huge in volume and volatility for Dec and Jan and the stock has a 7M short position .This short position is 25 % of the float .This is a link http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1666&mn=21060&pt=msg&mid=930581   to post 210260 which has a pertinent post on NFLD options and tactics .well I am of to the open !

[Samantha Stephens]

Interesting ... is there a downside option strategy post? Looks like they're suggesting a bull call spread where you buy the Jan 20s and sell the 25s ... so your risk is ~1 and your reward is 5?
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

OK ... NFLD fell out of bed in after hours trading when it was announced that 46 of their patients died compared to 35 on the "standard treatment".

They are saying it's preliminary ... not significant...but this just breaks my heart.

I've never been long or short the stock or the options ... because I could never get a good feel from the buying of either to determine the direction of the stock. I've only said that there will be A direction ... soon. If you're not a dreamer ... read no further ... hit the back button now!!!

Maybe because I'm blond and overly optimistic/hopeful for our world ... BUT we really need this kind of treatment... now here I go Samanthasizing/monologuing... Think of all the possibilities. What if you had (in addition to the sheer number of traumas we have... just in the US) ... Aids or hepatitis etc...? If you could go in and have them replace your blood rapidly ... wouldn't that give your body the fighting chance to recognize the infection and attack it? The reason I suck SO BAD at trading stocks is because I get too wrapped up in the story/dream ... and perhaps not the reality. And I can't make g*d dam* heads or tails of what these options are trying to tell me ... tell all of us!!

3SOF - Please help!! Is this a buy now or is the company going down? Please help. 

-Samantha

[ScottishTrader]

HI Samantha,

Haven't been around much but I couldn't resist chiming in....  I almost made my first options purchase yesterday (but chickened out at the last minute... why???)  When NFLD cratered I looked to short it, but couldn't so was looking to buy the Jan07 12.5 puts.  They were trading around 4.00, which seemed expensive, but the market signal was so clear yesterday - NFLD is going DOWN!!!  Now they would be worth a fair penny more I think!! (Oh well???)

But as we discussed earlier, there was a strong chance, which ever way NFLD went of it moving way beyond the range of the options spread you were thinking about.  To me, NFLD looks like it will be a hot potato today.  Heavy volume, possible heavy swings.  It could rally hard at the open, possibly as much as a couple bucks, and then fall off, or it could also crash another dollar or more before a gradual recovery later in the day.  Have a look at Calvens Exhausted Selling Model, for the kind of idea that I'm talking about.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3555.0

It is rallying some in the PM right now, which suggests it could have a short term upside surge first thing, but I would be VERY careful as it will be highly volatile, and if you trade it, set an immediate stop at your max pain level (if it is rallying hard, my stop would be at my buy point, once it is cleared by 5-10%).  Hope that helps.  ST

[Samantha Stephens]

Scottie...
I have to tell you that I really appreciate you on SO many levels.

First - You are one of the few who just might not think I'm losing my mind. I was reading back on the thread and I had a good chuckle at our discussion of just how far this stock could move. You had the sensible take ... I took the blond dreamer sailing tack ... and I have to tell you ... The blond risk analysis/best or worst case scenario - -won. I think you owe me a virtual bottle of wine on that one.

Second - I've learned so much from you ... in such a short amount of time. When I don't see you on line, I hope constantly that my goofy ideas haven't put you out of the game. I always read your personal log to get great ideas. And, I know you were playing this one, and when I saw the devastation (after I got home from my new 9-5) I only thought of you and hoped that you were OK if you were in it. I think you're awesome ... in fact...you should probably keep that virtual bottle of wine.

I know this probably isn't the best forum for stock options. But it's the best site I've ever seen. And you have to admit ... that when these skewed option stocks move ... the stocks really are on fire. The brilliant minds on this alias do an incredible job of charting to predict the future. BUT ... these skewed option stocks defy charting reason. AND even if options are not the primary source of great ideas ... I really think they need to be considered if only to avoid any wildly unexpected move.

Luv you!
Be/Trade safe....
-Sam