AKS - Sector: Basic Materials --- Industry: Iron & Steel

[Melf Elf]

CNBC just mentioned AKS as one of the five stocks that had big  increases in short interest in June.  Possible fuel for a nice rally at some point, eh?  Especially on a symmetrical triangle breakout above 7.70.  AKS bounced off the bottom of that triangle yesterday, BTW, and formed a bullish-looking doji star hammer.

The other four stocks mentioned with large increases in short interest in June: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Target (TGT).  Since those all are NYSE stocks, it probably doesn't include NASDAQ traded stocks.

[Tirebldr]

Dont Care about the drop -$ 8 next week
by: mrkt_edge_god
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    06/21/05 08:22 am
Msg: 63823 of 63830

Steel stocks are all trading above DMA 50 right
now except AKS and SCHN, well see a low @$6.50
and then it will go up to $8,9,10,17 again and 20 in six months.
Easy, just follow the trend.
And the trend is UP.

From Yahoo msg bd
http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search/messages?tag_M=aks&fname_M=txt_comment

Thanks for those encouraging words of market analysis. I was starting to loose hope for a bit. This is what I like about 3SF. Solid analysis help is good for us novice's 

[Tirebldr]

AKS up on hi vol today

[darkzx]

AKS when over $8 even after a merill downgrade, I am staying put, anybody think i should sell? thanks.

[TRUNK]

nice short squeeze there..

[setravis]

Falling Wedge.Stock soars. May be back in play,breakout to the upside.


News Link 2 Articles today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=AKS

[setravis]

Rebound

[setravis]

Quietly doing it's thing.
Looks to be consolidating after last run.
I would expect a new uptrend soon.IMHO


  AK Steel Enters Ferrous Scrap Purchase Agreement With...  by PR Newswire  Aug 2 2005 5:11PM

Steel shares rise after Morgan Stanley upgrade  by Reuters  Aug 2 2005 11:47AM

[setravis]

NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Shares of steel companies climbed on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley raised its outlook for the sector, saying it believes that steel market fundamentals recently hit bottom and metal prices are primed for a rise.

The Wall Street firm upgraded its steel industry view to "in-line" from "cautious."

"Due to industry discipline, we believe excess steel inventory has been worked off (and) production is likely to rise in the mid-to-late fourth quarter," Morgan Stanley analyst Wayne Atwell said in a research note.

Atwell said steel prices seemed already to have hit a low and were likely to climb again in the fourth quarter.

He raised price targets on shares of major steel makers to reflect an estimated drop in spot steel margins by an average of only $30 a ton next year, versus the previous estimate of $50 a ton. The change also reflects flat contract pricing, instead of a previous forecast of an 8 percent decline.

On the New York Stock Exchange shortly after midday, Nucor Corp. (NUE,Trade) advanced $2.67, or 4.8 percent, to $58.34; US Steel Corp (X,Trade) rose $1.62, or 3.79 percent, to $44.35; and AK Steel (AKS,Trade) gained 43 cents, or 4.68 percent, to $9.62.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD,Trade) rose $1.68, or 5.25 percent, to $33.71 on Nasdaq.

The S&P Steel Index ((.GSPSTEEL)) climbed 4.22 percent.

[setravis]

MIDDLETOWN, Ohio, Aug 02, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- AK Steel (AKS, Trade) said today it has entered into an agency agreement with Tube City, LLC for the purchase of ferrous scrap for all of AK Steel's steelmaking facilities. As part of the agreement, Tube City will be responsible for negotiating the majority of carbon scrap and pig iron purchases for AK Steel plants in Ashland, Kentucky; Butler, Pennsylvania; and Mansfield and Middletown, Ohio. Additionally, Tube City will be responsible for scheduling, logistics and quality assurance related to ferrous scrap for the AK Steel plants.

"This agreement with Tube City continues AK Steel's efforts to develop long-term agreements with suppliers of key raw materials," said James L. Wainscott, president and CEO of AK Steel. "We look forward to working with Tube City as a strategic partner to help us improve costs, quality and reliability as related to our scrap requirements."

Tube City is a long-time supplier of scrap and related services to AK Steel. In November 2004, AK Steel presented one of its first annual Supplier of the Year awards to Tube City for outstanding service, value and strategic support of AK Steel's business plan.

Headquartered in Glassport, Pennsylvania, Tube City, LLC, a subsidiary of Tube City IMS Corporation, is a leading provider of outsource purchasing, scrap management, including scrap optimization, and slag processing and material recovery services to integrated steel mills, mini-mills and foundries. Tube City IMS has operations at 64 mill site facilities throughout the U.S., Canada and Europe.

Headquartered in Middletown, Ohio, AK Steel produces flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steel products, as well as carbon and stainless tubular steel products, for automotive, appliance, construction and manufacturing markets.

SOURCE AK Steel


Media, Alan H. McCoy, Vice President, Government and Public Relations, 
+1-513-425-2826; or Investors, Albert E. Ferrara, Jr., Vice President, Finance & 
CFO, +1-513-425-2888, both of AK Steel 

http://www.prnewswire.com 

Copyright (C) 2005 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. ********************************************************************** As of Friday, 07-29-2005 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 07-13-2005 for AKS @ $8.01. (C) 2005 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.

[TRUNK]

This is the stock that let me discover 3StocksonFire so its good to see it finally climbed through that resistance in the $7.60's and is doing really well now..

I owe sort of an allegiance to the Stock for bringing me here.. someone had posted a link on Yahoo message boards with David's recommendation while I was holding AKS and thats all she wrote

[setravis]

Double Bottom (reversal) in the making.
Support @ $7.77...7.28...7.00
Resistance @ $8.65...8.85...9.23

Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
MACD is Bullish

Last Price Quote is:
9.13%above 13-day EMA
9.38%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 76 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $867.48 
P/E Ratio: 8.10 
PEG Ratio: 0.62 
Next Earnings: 01/24/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

Double Bottom (Reversal)
The double bottom is a major reversal pattern that forms after an extended downtrend. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in between.

Although there can be variations, the classic double bottom usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential double bottoms can form along the way down, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed.

It is important to remember that the double bottom is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that will not form in a few days. Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 weeks between lows. Bottoms usually take longer than tops to form and patience can often be a virtue. Give the pattern time to develop and look for the proper clues. The advance off of the first trough should be 10-20%. The second trough should form a low within 3% of the previous low and volume on the ensuing advance should increase. Volume indicators such as Chaikin Money Flow, OBV and Accumulation/Distribution can be used to look for signs of buying pressure. Just as with the double top, it is paramount to wait for the resistance breakout. The formation is not complete until the previous reaction high is taken out.

[setravis]

UPDATE 1-U.S. Steel stock surges on J.P.Morgan note
J.P. Morgan put the steelmaker's stock on its focus list, saying it was undervalued.

Support @ $8.65...8.40...8.15
Resistance @ $8.85...9.23...9.70

Volume: 3,218,200
Avg Volume (3m): 2,791,230

Technicals
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is Bullish
Last Price Quote is:
8.42%above 13-day EMA
13.03%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 78 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $955.32 
P/E Ratio: 8.10 
PEG Ratio: 0.685 
Next Earnings: 01/24/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

News Headlines Link:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=AKS

[Melf Elf]

AKS has two bullish upside targets IN PLAY.

Target #1; 9.22 is IN PLAY from the Ascending Triangle breakout on November 23.

AKS rallied only to 9.00, then sold off back into the pattern on December 19 and 20..  The target goes ON HOLD when that occurs until the stock gets back above the breakout.  AKS is back above the 7.75 breakout, so the 9.22 target is back IN PLAY.

Target #2: 8.52-8.55 is IN PLAY from the "mini" Ascending Triangle (horizontal blue line) breakout yesterday, January 3, above 8.04-8.05.  This pattern is a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of the original Ascending Triangle breakout.

Comments:

1. At the November 24 upside Breakaway Gap, the 50/200DMAs (dotted green line ... dotted red line) were inverted.  The stock was "ahead of itself," trying to rally to the 9.22 target with those MAs badly positioned.  Often, rallies like that will fall short of the target, as this one did.  The MAs still are inverted, but they now aren't as far apart.

2. We never like to see stocks come back below a pattern breakout, but if there is a good reason to do it, and if the stock regains the breakout, it at least is understandable why the stock is doing that:

a. At the December low, AKS came back below the breakout, but it held at its 50DMA, then it regained the breakout.

b. On December 30, AKS dipped below the breakout, but it tagged the uptrend line almost exactly, validating it as support with the "third hit," then it regained the breakout and closed near the high of the day.

3. Yesterday was another Ascending Triangle breakout, after a validation of the uptrend line off the Ocober low.  I like that.  The up trendline comes in today, January 4, at 7.742.

[Melf Elf]

Bought AKS at 8.05, the top of yesterday's Ascending Triangle breakout. 

Stop is the validated rising up trendline off the October low, currently at 7.742 and rising 0.0248 per day.  Risk: a loss of about 4%.