IVAN - Sector: Energy---Industry: Oil & Gas Operations

[Melf Elf]

IVAN is dropping like a rock.  Any opinions?

brandyjoco,

IVAN printed 2.73, the bottom of the channel that I discussed this morning, tried to hang on, but all of those bars below 2.73 on the chart below were an indication that key support didn't hiold.

The bottom of the channel comes in today, March 9, at 2.733.  That trendline has been validated by a third tag, so I'd look for the exits if it looks like it's going to tank below it, or close below it.

After breaking 2.73 support, IVAN "dropped like a rock," as you say, on volume, because the validated channel support was broken.

[REALDEALS21]

Earnings report will come out after the bell, anyone in this ??

[Holygrale]

This appears to be gaining some momentum............Might take a position in the morning.

[REALDEALS21]

IVAN UPGRADED !!

Jefferies upgrades IVAN to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $4 from $1.65 based on its Heavy-To-Light (HTL) Heavy Oil upgrading technology. They believe IVAN will leverage this proprietary process into Joint Ventures with operators with significant proven heavy oil properties, which could ultimately represent $14.67 per share of Present Value. The firm notes in order to prove commerciality of the HTL process, Ivanhoe built a 1,000 Bopd test facility in Aera Energy's Belridge Heavy Oil field, located near Bakersfield, California. After performing a successful test run on California Crude, the firm says Ivanhoe is now focused on performing longer test runs for potential partners utilizing both Heavy California crude and Athabasca Heavy crude (Bitumen). The firm says implementation of the H.T.L process can increase the present value of a standard 30,000 bopd heavy oil project by $860 mln. They believe Ivanhoe can leverage its proprietary H.T.L process into gaining ownership of between 25% and 35% of a new Heavy Oil project -representing between $342-$479 mln of present value net to Ivanhoe for each project. Based on the assumption that crude oil averages $65 and IVAN enters into five agreements, the firm says this could represent $3.5 bln of present value to IVAN, or $14.67 per share.

[joet]

I believe that it is time to give IVAN some attention again.  I see a double bottom forming and a good entry here in 1.40's with a tight stop at 1.24 if the reversal does not pan out.  But the entire energy sector is turning around from its beating and the shoulder season for lower energy demand is ending.  I am a bag holder here but will look to average down monday but stop these shares at 1.24.
It was just listed on the toronto exchange, good news for a solid company.
thoughts on IVAN??
cheers Joe

[Terliso]

I'd suggest wait for the price to come back above 9sma at least in the weekly chart for safer play

[joet]

Thank you Terliso, I see that 9ma about 1.60, we may hit that soon if we get some VOL, I will be watching monday and decide when i see if Ivan gets any buyers.  thanx  joe

PS are you still holding some CTDC target 9?  thoughts on DVAX, i am thinking we will see 8 before we see 6.. hmm will see  Nice call on FLE, are you still holding for 8.3 or sell?  I like EGHT and GNBT as well

[Terliso]

I'm still holding CTDC & sold FLE below below my target price.... about DVAX i'm concern about the RSI in the weekly chart it's so narrow as you can see it's now pointing down, I think DVAX will go down & possibly fill the gap... IMHO

[ScottishTrader]

Hey guys, glad to see IVAN is getting a bit of attention.  Just had a look at it while looking for possible bullish reversal candle patterns...  we have had 2 morning stars (the last one of an inverted hammer) in the last couple of weeks, suggesting that it wants to reject a further downward move, at least in the short term....

Longer term, IVAN has been in an extended downtrend after the huge rally at the begining of the year.  To me it looks like an extended falling wedge that is starting to narrow, and may be ready to reverse - signals include a bullish positive divergence between the share price and both MACD and RSI in the last 6 weeks.  Also i like those recent candles.  The 13 EMA has been constraining most of this downward move and now sits right at 1.40, which is obvious short term resistance.  If IVAN gets a break of this resistance, it could test the top of the pattern around 1.48 and a breakout from this level (aqnd the pattern may set up a move to next obvious resistance at 1.87.

Good luck joet, I know you are in this one, I will keep it on my radar...

[ScottishTrader]

Well,  I knew I shoulda bought IVAN yesterday, as everything looked ripe for a reversal, but I got caught up in a few other things and it slipped past me (must havebeen the lack oif early action).  It closed well at 1.48, and I rectified my mistake this morning.

Already IVAN is acting well this morning - volume coming in and price above 1.50... smells like a breakout to me!!!  Targets... 1.68 and 1.82

[joet]

Howdie Scotts and company
I did jump in at 1.41 yesterday... with a tight stop, and it is working out so far.  (yet i am also bag holder, so averaged down.  I like your targets at resistance points, would you call this a "falling Wedge breakout"?  I am poling folks on their Strategy, Do you sell as a rule when a target is Made?
I liked that it held a gained a small amount today in a poor day for the overall market.  Any idea what the Float is on IVAN?  It is one of the few on a primary Exchange that i have noticed that does not list its Key Statisics on the Yahoo site!

I believe Energy sector will see some new life now that the shoulder season is ending (although i got stopped out on my VLO position that i was playing a W pattern...

OMNI sure is doing well, hope ou are in that one
Cheers Joe

[ScottishTrader]

Hey Joet,

I still can't believe that I sold OMNI last week around 8.30, when it broke down from the 8.60s, only to reverse immediately after hourse, making a big gap up and continuing to rip.  That was a fakeout that well and truly trapped me, and when I realised I was wrong, I didn't jump back in and chase it!! Aaarrggghhh!!!!!

As for IVAN, I really liked the volume yesterday morning, and things looked all good with the rest of the market selling off, but it did pull back some during the rest of the day.  I would call it a falling wedge (almost) breakout -- I put descending resistance at 1.50 for yesterday, and the high of the day just peeked above the upper bollinger band.  For this play I am looking for a short term gain - max 1 week, and depending how things pan out will aim to sell at first resistance/50MA which comes in the 1.65-1.68 range.  I am using the 13 ema to support this move, as this sems to have held down the price during the previous downtrend, so a close below the 13 ema will be my signal to sell.  As I mentioned before, the positive divergence between MACD, RSI and price in the last 2 months suggests to me the price wants to move higher,  and a target around 1.80 should (hopefully) get made. 

But saying that its early days yet and we still don't have a breakout confirmation, just a nice reversal candlestick pattern (something like a ladder bottom http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs85.asp)

As far as the float goes, Quote.com states it at 183.7M, with 241.17M total outstanding. 

Anyway, that's my trading plan on this one, quite often I don't have such a specific trading plan, but I need to work more on this, as it leads me to being excessively reactive (hence the sell on OMNI, despite having an ideal trading plan there that I didn't follow  ).  And after all, trading plans can always be revised/modified as the action evloves...

Good trading joe!!

[ScottishTrader]

Hey Joe,

Well I certainly didn't expect IVAN to hit my first target quite THAT fast!!!

Big volume day yesterday with a clear break out of the descending channel, but no news to be found, although it is possible that the move was associated with huge news for Ivanhoe Mining (IVN) which announced $1.5bln investment yesterday - even though they are completely unrelated companies!!!

Given yesterday's strength, I held on to my shares as I expect we sould see some continuation, however, I wasn't too keen on the weakness at the close yesterday.  I want to see IVAN move solidly into the 1.60s, showing continuation strength today.  if it starts to look like its languishing, I will probably close out my position, take the small gain and move on.  Only interested in short term holds right now.

Good luck though!!

[Melf Elf]

For this play I am looking for a short term gain - max 1 week, and depending how things pan out will aim to sell at first resistance/50MA which comes in the 1.65-1.68 range.

Scotsman,

Nice call.  Applaud.

Sorry that I'm late reading this folder, and that I missed this nice trade.

IVAN had a Bull Flag breakout, printing above 1.4212 on Monday.  The first target was the top of the Bull Flag, your 1.68, which made yesterday, for a 17.5% gain from the breakout print of 1.43.  Nice!

The next target is 1.85 IN PLAY from the measured move off the breakout:

Math:

1.68 - High of the Bull Flag
1.25 - Low of the Bull Flag

1.68 - 1.25 = 0.43 points added to the breakout above 1.42 + 0.43 = 1.85 IN PLAY

If IVAN rallies to that level, the low of the last Bearish Symmetrical Triangle was 1.82, so that could provide resistance.  In a situation like that, I often will sell 1.80..1.81, figuring that the target might not get MADE.  Depends on how trading is going at the time, but I'll get out near there.

You could be right about the rally having to do with some confusion with Ivanhoe Mining, but it certainly was warranted, technically, based on the Bull Flag breakout, and the breakout the same day above the down trendline (blue) off the June high.   There were five hits to that trendline, so it had some significance when it finally got taken out, coincident with the Bull Flag breakout.

often I don't have such a specific trading plan, but I need to work more on this, as it leads me to being excessively reactive (hence the sell on OMNI, despite having an ideal trading plan there that I didn't follow  ).  And after all, trading plans can always be revised/modified as the action evloves...

That's very well said, Scotsman.  It's so easy to fall victim to our emotions in trading, that it helps a great deal to have a trading plan, as you say.  Enter here.  Stop loss there.  Take profits when targets get MADE.  Done.

And, as you say, we can re-evaulate as the trade evolves.  Example: Did some trendline get violated, or am I just reacting to the "noise?"

Good luck to you and Joe with IVAN.   

[setravis]

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