AUY

[laker2000]

auy is a talked about stock up north here...it has a major discovery and the analysts that hold it in canada have a $50 can. target.....other junior plays that will have increasing production are eldorado..eld....iamgold..img..and kinross...k.......there are many juniors that are in production but there runs will lag....kinross in particular should follow the pog........I hold them all except auy...and thats only because I missed that big run and have a hard time paying that much..but it is a well liked stock and will follow gold

[laker2000]

sorry...auy in the states is yahmana gold...diff stock here.....okay...yahama...again a well liked stock expected to grow by aquisition...widely held here in canada....targets are 15-18 can..currently...again will go up with gold ...and down with gold.......stock did get away abit and if pog goes to $580 which is somewhat expected it will correct along with it....the others I mentioned...the symbols are canadian so you will have to look up if ther trade on a us exc....I know kinross is kgc...anyhow sorry about the mis recognition of thesymbol... I forget I'm on a us bb....

[Holygrale]

Nice run-up today.........Glad its on the NYSE now, can't stand the AMEX..........

POG was up big today, hope we get some nice follow thru next week....

[Melf Elf]

Melf, nice job on selling on strength, I will wait for POG to settle down a bit.  AUY has been getting some good Publicity/short covering() lately hence the run up today butttttttt will be a solid Producer in 07'...............

Looking to get back in, appreciate all your guidance (TA)...........   

Holygrale,

Thanks, and you're welcome. 

I knew that AUY was going to have to "rally ugly," based on the technicals, so I was happy to have the opportunity to sell the rally to the bottom of six-week resistance, even though it's still bullish on the chart, especially with that successful re-test the W-bottom, at 11.38 (the January 5 low was 11.32).

Here's what I mean by "rally ugly:"

I sold my remaining 40% of AUY at 12.16 late this afternoon, at 12.16-12.18 resitance.  Gain: 8.9%

Gain on the trade: 12.2%

Given that AUY rallied today right to the bottom of six weeks worth of resistance, and that my 34/55RSIs probably are going to be a Bearish Synchronicity on the rally, I decided to sell into strength, and close out the rest of the trade.

Thanks again, Holygrale. 

Here's the 34/55RSI chart.  This particular indicator "got well" on October 27 (the first green arrow) when the 34/55RSIs came into Bullish Synchronicity, then bounced higher.  That day, AUY re-tested the first Bullish Inverse H&S breakout, then went on to break out of another Bullish Inverse H&S on November 3!

You will remember how much I liked your chart in November! 

Thoughout the rally in late 2006, the 34/55RSIs behaved very well.  Each time that the 34RSI came back and meet its "shadow," the 55RSI (which I call synchronicity) the 34 RSI banged higher, indicating, "Okay, I've had a rest, and now I'm ready to do some more work on the upside."

In the first session of 2007, however, when AUY made a intraday high of 13.35, then closed at 12.35, we had a possible problem: the 34/55RSIs were at Bullish Synchronicity, but the neckline of the H&S Top had broken.

Technically, at least from this indicator, we can see why, when AUY didn't find support at the 12.07-12.15, gap we were at 11.32 very rapidly (the next session).

At Friday's close, the 34/55RSIs now are at BEARISH Synchronicity, below the neckline of the H&S Top, and below the 34/55EMAs, which have rolled over to the downside.

MACD also put in a H&S Top at the same time as the 34/55RSIs.

The price chart of AUY, itself, still is bullish, but it's going to have to "rally ugly" against the technicals, if you see what I mean.

That's why I decided to "sell into strength."   I'd rather take the money than try to battle the technicals.

Nice re-entry, BTW.  Applause.  Good luck!









[/quote]

[Melf Elf]

Holygrale,

Here's the H&S Top in the MACD, the second one since last July.

This one had a rather sharp downward slope to it, the validity of which some analysts question, but I always feel "the proof is in the puddin'."

AUY tanked 15.2%, from 13.35 to 11.32, in a matter of 3-days.  For a stock that is this bullish to sell off that much, the pattern certainly was valid, in my opinion.

On Friday's rally, MACD ticked higher, from just below the zero line (hard to see on this chart).  In a bullish stock, a bounce higher from anywhere near that zero line often is good for a rally.

But, again, you can see what I mean about "rally ugly," because the MACD will have to rally into its signal line, which is coming down hard. 

AUY certainly still can rally some more, but if it does, it "could" run into a bit of trouble on a back kiss of its signal line.  If MACD ticks down from that back kiss, more often than not, it isn't good.

On the last failed back kiss in September, AUY dropped (from the rally high in the MACD) 19.5%, from 9.71 to final low of 7.82 on October 4.

At that October 4 low, BTW, we can see that there was a DOUBLE positive divergence in the Histogram (Green #1 though #3). 

As AUY went lower, at Green #2, the histogram said, "I'm not confirming that low," and at the final low, at Green #3, the histogram said, "I'm not only not confirming that new low, I'm getting much stronger."

After we get that kind of bullish information, a buy of the stock when MACD crosses above its signal line often is a very nice buy.  In this case, that signal came on October 13, with AUY at 9.05.

[Melf Elf]

At the Halloween close of 9.91, AUY was sitting at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), and also at the top of a DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S, champing at the bit for a breakout.

In addition to this blockbuster bullish formation, AUY also subsequently had a breakout of a BIG W-Bottom, above 11.38, which I've shown a number of times.

T2T, when I look at charts like this, I wonder why I ever make "marginal" plays, and why I don't wait and only play something like that looks this good.

Maybe everyone at 3SOF could pick ONE stock, and follow it closely.  Don't even mention the stock until it looks something like this chart.  Then, on October 31, 2006, post, "Hey, anybody want to play this breakout of a DOUBLE Inverse H&S Bottom?"

Wouldn't that be fun?!   

Anyway...

After that beautiful breakout, we can see that AUY had clear sailing above the Kumo (Cloud) and above the DOUBLE breakout.  Both targets MADE handily, with no problem.

Since the 13.81 high, we can see where AUY ran into a spot of trouble.  It found support at the 22-day (red), but when it rallied off there, we got a Bearish Cross of the 8-day (Green) and the 22-day (red).

From there, AUY sold off back into the Kumo (Cloud), and successfully re-tested the W-Bottom breakout, at 11.38.

On Friday's, AUY managed stuck the close ju-ust above the Kumo (Cloud), which I like to see.

12.64 - Close

12.59 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)

12.49 - The 22-day

12.335 - The 8-day

The 8-day and 22-day still are bearishly positioned (they're inverted), but that  soon can be rectified is AUY can continue to "rally ugly" against the technicals.  Bullish stocks are able to do that.

This is a "Feet, don't fail me now!" situation. 

AUY committed to "rally ugly" here, and if it doesn't follow-thru to the upside, "the force" (the technicals) isn't with it now, as it was during the rally out of the multiple breakout in the autumn.

Very much price weakness, for example, would have the MACD turning back down at/near zero, which usually isn't good.

If ya gotta "rally ugly," then ya gotta...but, RALLY!   





 

[Holygrale]

Melf, once again excellent analysis.......... Here's to a "Rally Ugly MONKEY"...........LOL     

I will keep a close eye on this new position in the event she begins to show weakness............

Maybe everyone at 3SOF could pick ONE stock, and follow it closely.  Don't even mention the stock until it looks something like this chart.  Then, on October 31, 2006, post, "Hey, anybody want to play this breakout of a DOUBLE Inverse H&S Bottom?"

Wouldn't that be fun?!   

I think your onto something here, all my years of experience says that "Timing is everything", and the fact is:

Chartists + 1000's of stocks + TA (particular set-ups what your suggesting) + FA + right place right time= MASSIVE Opportunity


With this you get hundreds of eyes looking or the same strong set up ............I like it.

[Melf Elf]

Melf, once again excellent analysis.......... Here's to a "Rally Ugly MONKEY"...........LOL     

Holygrale,

LOL.  I like that.   

And, when charts have been this bullish, they sure can "Rally Ugly MONKEY."

I will keep a close eye on this new position in the event she begins to show weakness............

I will, too.

My feeling on the rally off 11.32 is that the fundamentals are trumping the technicals, because AUY is "rallying ugly" against what the technicals are indicating.

Strong stocks can do that.

I think your onto something here, all my years of experience says that "Timing is everything", and the fact is:

Chartists + 1000's of stocks + TA (particular set-ups what your suggesting) + FA + right place right time= MASSIVE Opportunity


With this you get hundreds of eyes looking or the same strong set up ............I like it.

Exactly.

As much as I would like to read every folder, I doubt that I've gotten through even 10% of them, and often when I do, like in this folder, and in the ONT folder, I'm way-y too late to the trade (I was fine on the pullback entry in AUY, though). 

But, the 1.35 target in ONT already had MADE before I got there.

If we had someone specifically in charge of watching ONT, and an "alert" folder, we could sign on, and find posts like:

"December 13 - ONT had a channel breakout today at $0.94, after coming off a successful tag of the 50DMA, after a Bullish Cross of the 50/200DMAs, at $0.78. 

It closed today at $0.93.  $1.35 is IN PLAY if ONT rallies, for a gain of 45.2% from today's close, if the target gets MADE."

Oh-h-h, buddy!     

Speaking of buddies, good luck to you and our buddy, nullz, in AUY! 

14.94 still is IN PLAY from the W-Bottom breakout in early November.

[nullzero]

Thanks melf im going to see if I can ride the tide up on AUY. Seeing all the good news (NYSE switch, good production numbers, etc., and the possibility for a rise continued rise in the POG.)

[setravis]

NEW YORK, Jan 12, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Today, NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX, Trade), welcomed Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY, Trade), a transfer from the American Stock Exchange and a global leader in the production and exploration of gold and copper-gold development properties, to the world's leading equity market.

Yamana Gold Inc.'s listing positions the company among NYSE-listed leaders in the gold mining industry: Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX, Trade), Goldcorp Inc. (GG, Trade), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU, Trade), Gold Fields Limited (GFI, Trade) and Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY, Trade).

"We are proud to welcome Yamana Gold Inc. to our family of listed companies," said NYSE Group, Inc. President & co-COO Catherine R. Kinney. "Yamana Gold is an outstanding addition to the 83 leading Canadian companies listed on the NYSE. We look forward to our partnership with the company and to providing them with the superior market quality and unsurpassed brand visibility that issuers from around the world have come to expect from listing on the New York Stock Exchange."

"We are very pleased to be listed on the NYSE, the pre-eminent stock exchange in the world," said Yamana Gold Inc. President & CEO Peter Marrone. "Yamana has experienced tremendous growth over the last few years and for us to qualify for listing on this premier exchange further validates how we have grown into the leading intermediate gold producer."

Yamana Gold Inc. marks the first non-U.S. listing and transfer to NYSE Group, Inc. year-to-date.

To celebrate this special occasion, Yamana Gold Inc. President & CEO Peter Marrone rang today's Opening Bell.

About Yamana Gold Inc.

Yamana is a Canadian gold producer with significant gold and copper-gold production, gold development stage properties, exploration properties, and land positions in Brazil, Argentina and Central America. Yamana expects to produce gold at intermediate company production levels in 2007 in addition to significant copper production. Company management plans to continue to build on this base through the advancement of its exploration properties and by targeting other gold consolidation opportunities in Brazil, Argentina and elsewhere in Latin America.

About NYSE Group, Inc

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX, Trade) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange LLC (the "NYSE") and NYSE Arca, Inc. (formerly known as the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. In 2006, on an average trading day, 2.3 billion shares, valued at $86.8 billion, were traded on the exchanges of the NYSE Group.

The NYSE is the world's largest and most liquid cash equities exchange. The NYSE provides a reliable, orderly, liquid and efficient marketplace where investors buy and sell listed companies' common stock and other securities. On December 31, 2006, the operating companies listed on the NYSE represented a total global market capitalization of $25.0 trillion.

NYSE Arca, Inc. operates the former ArcaEx(R), the first open, all-electronic stock exchange in the United States, which has a leading position in trading exchange-traded funds and exchange-listed securities. NYSE Arca, Inc. is also an exchange for trading equity options. NYSE Arca, Inc.'s trading platforms provide customers with fast electronic execution and open, direct and anonymous market access.

NYSE Regulation, an independent not-for-profit subsidiary, regulates member organizations through the enforcement of marketplace rules and federal securities laws. NYSE Regulation also ensures that companies listed on the NYSE and NYSE Arca meet their financial and corporate governance listing standards.

For more information on NYSE Group, go to: www.nyse.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on NYSE Group's current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NYSE Group's actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the statements. There can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause NYSE Group's results to differ materially from current expectations include, but are not limited to: NYSE Group's ability to implement its strategic initiatives, economic, political and market conditions and fluctuations, government and industry regulation, interest rate risk and U.S. and global competition, and other factors detailed in NYSE Group's Annual Report on Form 10-K and other periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, these statements are based on a number of assumptions that are subject to change. Accordingly, actual results may be materially higher or lower than those projected. The inclusion of such projections herein should not be regarded as a representation by NYSE Group that the projections will prove to be correct. NYSE Group undertakes no obligation to release any revisions to any forward-looking statements.

SOURCE: NYSE Group, Inc.


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Copyright Business Wire 2007 ********************************************************************** As of Monday, 01-08-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 09-28-2006 for ABX @ $31.19. As of Monday, 01-08-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on 01-05-2007 for AU @ $44.20. As of Monday, 01-08-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 11-27-2006 for GFI @ $17.61. For more information on Comtex SmarTrend? Alert, contact your market data provider or go to www.CSTADirect.com SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc. Copyright ? 2004-2007 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.

[nullzero]

AUY trading in the high 11s I think today is a good time to buy a position. The short term pullback I cant see lasting more then today or tomorrow.

[Holygrale]

After jumping out yesterday at $12.52  I decided to jump back in today at $11.82 near the close.

I'm sticking to my day trade scenario as long as it stays volatile like this.

Stop losses/limit orders work when you need them to!

[nullzero]

Very curious to see where we trade tomorrow. The options the reason for this volatility one would assume.

[Melf Elf]

The 8-day and 22-day still are bearishly positioned (they're inverted), but that  soon can be rectified is AUY can continue to "rally ugly" against the technicals.  Bullish stocks are able to do that.

This is a "Feet, don't fail me now!" situation. 

AUY committed to "rally ugly" here, and if it doesn't follow-thru to the upside, "the force" (the technicals) isn't with it now, as it was during the rally out of the multiple breakout in the autumn.

Updated price chart.

[Melf Elf]

At Friday's close, the 34/55RSIs now are at BEARISH Synchronicity, below the neckline of the H&S Top, and below the 34/55EMAs, which have rolled over to the downside.

Updated 34/55 RSIs.