Dear Diary ...

[Samantha Stephens]

Maxi - Every time you post ... I learn WAY too much! 
Thank you for all your help! Though ... those candles you use are cool BUT just a bit creepy!! They're totally able to flip a down tick into an up tick... that's wild!

I'll scope out that site ... looks like I need to spend some time there ... and I need to play with the Finch retracement concept. I never knew which direction it went. And it looks like there's a retracement and a fan ... are none of these indicators "easy"?? We need to come up with the ... "Hey bozo ... BUY RIGHT NOW .... AND... SELL RIGHT NOW" indicator. Do you know how much we could make???
-Sammy

[rickjust]

Maxi - Every time you post ... I learn WAY too much! 
Thank you for all your help! Though ... those candles you use are cool BUT just a bit creepy!! They're totally able to flip a down tick into an up tick... that's wild!

I'll scope out that site ... looks like I need to spend some time there ... and I need to play with the Finch retracement concept. I never knew which direction it went. And it looks like there's a retracement and a fan ... are none of these indicators "easy"?? We need to come up with the ... "Hey bozo ... BUY RIGHT NOW .... AND... SELL RIGHT NOW" indicator. Do you know how much we could make???
-Sammy

hi ,
yes they flip the candle but the beauty of them is they are following the trend, they take the
" noise"  out of the chart. ( but they can't take the noise out of my head!)
yes so many indicators. so little time. simplify.
Q. why is the stock going down damn it?
A. People are selling and visa versa
maxi

[Samantha Stephens]

OK ... RealDeals21 - applaud for the trading bootcamp today. You really are the "real... deal". I'll do better tomorrow. I PROMISE!!!!!

Might have a lead on a job ... that's progress!

I'm still playing with the criteria on my QQQQ chart. My biggest problem is that hind site is 20/20 ... and looking back at it after the market closes, I can say boy this really pegged the reversals ... but when you drill in ... there are other indicators that would have given an obvious sell signal. Still looking for that brown nosing system ...you know ... the one where all the indicators line up in support of the boss!! hahahah

I'll post is as soon as it's not so colorful... and if it stays colorful ... just want to make sure it's not laughable!!!!

The options I should have watched ... had I not been at camp all day :
     Jan07 43 call – range from $1.75 to $2.05
     Jan07 45 put – range from $1.31 to $1.65 ... or probably....
     Jan07 46 put - range from 1.95 - 2.30

Of the stocks I found on my Tuesday screens, there's only one that still has a volatility skew: 

TELK - IV Dec IV is 136, JAN07 is almost 200 ... IV Jan09 is only 60s. This one has been showing up on my screen with less extreme IVs ... It's getting to the point where it can't be ignored.

This is the Stock Picking TELK thread:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=765.msg73891#msg73891

I've started the following Options thread ... so as not to bore anyone with a good WOO HOO!!! High IV Option indicator! sorry ... :
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0
-Samantha

[ScottishTrader]

hey samantha,

I've been a bit quiet here on3sof this week (taking a little break after a walloping on monday and tuesday - need to re-collect my wits )  But I thought I would chime in with yet another breakout indicator.  I think Leaira mentioned this somewhere else, but it can be good...  Using the bolinger bands to spot breakouts intraday and longer term.  Look for when the BBs narrow and then start to widen - the key is when price action is above the centre line and the lower band starts to move down.  Thats your breakout.  Same thing goes for sell-side signals on breakdowns (see end of day sell signal on the VPHM chart).  This is something I am just starting to experiment with, and it doesn't work all the time, but might be worth a look in terms of spotting when momo is building and fading.

Good stuff here though.... you're definitely getting folks chirped up with your crazy ideas! (you might even get some of us into options!!!)

[Samantha Stephens]

ST - I pulled up your profile yesterday to make sure you were posting and hadn't slit your wrists. I miss it when you post a lot ... I learn so much from you.

OK ... I've added Bollinger bands to all my graphs. And as I watch the market fall out of bed ... again this morning ... those bands are working nicely. Thanks for the suggestion.
-Sam

[Samantha Stephens]

QQQQ Strategy - OK ... so ... I've pulled in 20 indicators and grouped them into 5 study windows. Sounds like something only a brunet COULD do ... or that a blond WOULD do. hahahaHAHAHAHAH

The one window I'm really confused about ... well... relatively speaking...  is the set of indicators that have a 75 / 25 scale ... StochRSI14, %R, %D, %DS, %K ... In fact, I only see 4 lines and when I narrow it down %K & %R seem to be graphically identical. When I read the descriptions ... they pretty much ALL sound the same to me. I can see that some move faster than others, some are more choppy or smooth – the smoother they are they later they are to give signal and the choppier they are the more whip saw signals they give ... so ... does anybody know which one is best for prompting entry/exits?
-Sam

[rickjust]

hi,
don't know about those indicators but here is a chart of the qqqq's i am wondering now that it has broken the 10ma  will it pull back to the 50ma.?

[Samantha Stephens]

Hey Maxi!!!
That's the burning question. Well ... other than wondering what your doing in your picture ... are you eating, playing the guitar or flipping off the photographer?? hahahahahHAHAHAHA Inquiring minds what to know!!!

Overbought/sold indicators perplex me. I know I should be using them, but don't know how. They all sound like they are supposed to tell the same story. But they show slightly different trend/timing. So I feel compelled to pull them in, if only to add a little color and then ignore them. I've pulled in CCI with Volume, like you suggested. And I really like that one. I just wish it wasn't so squished up on my chart. But I like that combo. SO ... if I have CCI ... do I need all the rest. CCI was an easy keep - it has a -100/0/+100 range ... no other indicator uses that one!

What moving averages do you use? I kinda like the concept of the 6 EMA with the 13EMA ... I like that they give me weighted to the present current information rather than using simple moving averages. Though, when it comes to the 50 ... that's a wellknown simple moving average support level. Well ... and then I pull in the famous "magic lines" ... but what sane person doesn't?  Have you found 10 to be significant support? I've never looked at it, because 6 seemed to work for me and compared to 10 crosses, the lines were too close to see any explosion.

I'm no technical chartist but when I drew the resistance and support lines for the Qs... the low tick on Friday PERFECTLY touched my line and then it bounced up. These last couple days have given me the creeps. My common sense says that if you can't get a tickle me Elmo for under a million bucks ... or a weed whacker (hint hint Santa)...  the next best thing is something in the tech world. There are still a couple people without an Ipod, myself included. So I think the holidays should be good for tech ... but boy that chart has got my "Samantha sense" working overtime.  I'd really like to have my plan in place so I can get a good signal and mindlessly hop on! As soon as I have it all put together, I'm going to run through 80 days to back test and see how it does ... then I'm going for it. See the chart below ... no laughing ... I mean it ... it's not even the one I'm "working on". 

Maxi - - You're such a sweetie for always helping me out!!!! Applaud 

And ... on a random holiday related side note.  I think I speak for all of us on the 3SOF site ... that it sure would be nice if Santa would keep Traderdog and Co. from creating new threads for Setravis to merge all the time. I almost forgot that Setravis used to have the time to actually contribute incredible stock picks/revelations/charts etc. Does anyone remember when his greatest contribution was not a constant string of, "Stock ABCD has been merged, please use the search functionality before starting a new thread." And, I guess, if we can't have that ... I'll just settle for world peace.
-Samantha

[rickjust]

Hey Maxi!!!
That's the burning question. Well ... other than wondering what your doing in your picture ... are you eating, playing the guitar or flipping off the photographer?? hahahahahHAHAHAHA Inquiring minds what to know!!

hi samantha,
i am in paris eating creme brule'. i took my daughter for her 16th birthday this year. I cut her out of the pic,
as for the ma's . i like 5day 9 day 10 and 13,. and a bounce off the 50 day if it is to continue bullish.
but here is the hardest thing. if in doubt ,leave it out. i have been wondering myself about all these technical indicators and mostly you can't read too much in them as they are lagging indicators . exept the cci. so you are basically left with a puzzle that you try to piece together to find what the picture is . the problem is once you have done that you may still be wrong about that picture.
what you can do is decide which way it is heading and wait for confirmation, ( i have failed the waiting game many times!)
rock on,
maxi

[Samantha Stephens]

Option Skews - Interesting day. ONXX failed in their Phase 3 trials and the stock fell 30%. I "knew" it was going to move because I've been tracking the volatility in the current month options. And, it moved more than I assumed it possibly could. So ... where does that get me? How do you take advantage of that? The options were too expensive to really consider. And with a 30% swing in either direction, taking a stock position, long or short ... could have really done some damage if you didn't pick the right direction. There might have been a good calendar spread in there. Anyway - I need to figure out a plan for dealing with these stocks ... otherwise they're just going to frustrate the crap out of me.

QQQQ - I took Maxi's advice and cut out all of the 75/25 indicators. They're taking up realestate on my screen and I just can't seem to figure out how they add value.

Attached would be a textbook example of a buy and sell signal ... even though it spans 2 days. The BUY/SELL in the attached chart is generated everytime the 6EMA and 13EMA cross. I was able to overlay the DOW onto my QQQQ chart, so I don't have to keep flicking between them. The DOW ticks are the grey sticks. I think I like the indicators I've chosen. Let me know if you see any glaring issues.
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

QQQQ - This was pretty flat today, so I didn't get any major buying/selling signals. Maxi - I read up on the CCI and I'm totally bought in now. The documentation from that site you gave me is a real snoozer ... not quite sure what the heck they're talking about through most of it. But what I did understand, I really liked.

These are the new skewed stocks I'm keeping an eye on. Not sure any of them merit a post in the option folder just yet. A couple of them, the option prices are really close. Not sure if the stocks just never move, if it's a misprint, offer pending or what. But it seems like if you can get close to a free calendar spread, there should be no harm no foul... right? OK ... here's my new list.

High current IV:
CPRT – Dec 25 calls are 180 IV, the Jan 25 calls have 92IV and the Jan09s are at 50IV.
WIND – Dec IV is 200,  Jan07 IV is 100 & Jan 09 IV is 60.
NUVO – Dec IV is 60, Jan IV is 95, Jan09 IV is 50
Disregard MCDT – Dec options have IV 100s, Jan07 IV is 68, Jan09 IV is 54. Maybe a calendar spread? - there is an arbitrage in process

All options are about the same price:
ALD
Wait - Disregard these - the reason the options are close is because of the arbitrageAPCC CZN ... figured it had to be something

OPEN/still waiting for move:
NFLD - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7227.0
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0

CLOSED:
ONXX - fell 30% (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7426.0 )

OK ... Must get to bed ... have interview tomorrow. Dang it! 
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

Too busy brushing up for my INTERVIEW ... couldn't really trade. QQQQs were flat but doable had I paid attention. New skew stocks have been updated in the post below. A number of the stocks where the options were too close to be believable do have arbitrage activity ... so I've noted that they should be disregarded.

OK ... tomorrow I'm playing with Heelys. No matter what it's ticker is! I figure if I declare it now, it's not like an impulse purchase of a shiny bright object stock tomorrow. hahahahHAHAHAHA
-Samantha

[gmarc66]

Sam..u kill me ...and i'm exhausted after reading ur posts...ur such a whirlwind

Hey...what interview? i thought u were going to be a trader rather then partake in the in a 9-5er normal job? ..with all this time ur spending learning about trading ...and calling and putting things over there and then calling them back over here and stuff..why the job interview now...huh? 'splain please.

julia

[Samantha Stephens]

Julia - Stocky made me get a job...

Yes sounds interesting. I do want to share one important life changing advice I had from David here at 3SoF ------->

"Have a real job b/c it extremely stressful to pay bills doing trading".

Thanks I took that one. Trading as source of wealth creation is a different ball game then making a living. I wish you goodluck.

Don't worry though ... it's only a temp job ... so I can still contribute all of my goofy option ideas and such. And the best part is that it's only a temp job, so unless they want to pay me a TON of money for overtime ... it will only be 40 hours a week. I just probably need an after hours plan ... add that to the list! ... unless I can actually sneak away to do a little market time.

I've been trying to trading for almost 3 years ... I'm completely gutless ... just ask RealDeals21. I just wish I would have found this site 3 years ago when I was in my formative trading years. I know I would be better/stronger/faster by now. I've learned so much from everyone on this site. And, Julia - your my penny trading hero!!!! No job can keep me from posting!!!!!! hahahahahaha
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

High current IV:
NUVO – Dec IV is 60, Jan IV is 95, Jan09 IV is 50

Ok - Taking NUVO off my watch list. It fell 80+% this morning when it's Phase III trial failed.
-Samantha