Dear Diary ...

[catrader]

High current IV:
NUVO – Dec IV is 60, Jan IV is 95, Jan09 IV is 50

Ok - Taking NUVO off my watch list. It fell 80+% this morning when it's Phase III trial failed.
-Samantha

since nuvo fell so much, anyone see value in the stock.  I guess for options, no leaps for 2.50 or 5 strike price yet.

[Samantha Stephens]

Hi Catrader -
That's a good question. Biotech confuses me, so when I look at the company I don't know how to evaluate their pipeline and their current financials.
http://nuvelo.com/ is their home page. I'd have to spend a couple days looking it all over if I was to even consider the stock. The only thing I'm positive of is that it's certainly cheaper than it was on Friday... ... though I'm not conviced that it's done getting cheep.

I'm not considering it until it has options that are close to the money ... I'm assuming that they will post with December expiration. When they post those, we might be able to divine a consensus on it's direction.
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

All righty - Here's my progress report - by Samantha Stephens

OK - tomorrow I start my new job. If anything ... this job thing has kept me from getting distracted with the shiny bright object stocks. And ... to my list, I need to add a plan for trading AM to AM ... that doesn't require constant vigilance during the day ... or maybe something ... with a longer horizon. I should probably focus on the leap strategy ... or something like that. All of this should make Randolph happy ... 

QQQQ - I like my criteria, have been watching it for the last week and I don't see how the indicators can get any better. The only thing I wonder about is the time frames. Not sure if it's something that can be done in one day ... much less the first 1/2 hour when I'm looking at the 5min chart. There's just not a lot of 5 min increments in a day ... I like how I don't get a lot of false signals ... maybe there's a compromise in there some place.

STRANGE SKEW STOCKS -
NEW WATCH LIST:
VRTX - Lots has been said in the news about new drugs with Merk and it was added to the Nasdaq 100. If the options don't start evening out, it's probably something else.
COGN - Not a huge skew ... so just watching
DPTR - Caught a downgrade from AGE. Not a huge skew ... so if the downgrade is the issue, it should even out.
PACR - No news - IV in Jan07 is 50 ... IV in Jan09 is only 15... curious....

WATCH LIST STOCKS REMOVED:
ALD – I think my trading platform just makes the options on this one look goofy but not actionable. CPRT & WIND – The options have gotten back in line after the volume spikes day on 12/6. There may be something bigger in store, but the options are no longer showing a skew for either stock

OPEN/still waiting for move:
NFLD - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7227.0
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0

CLOSED:
ONXX - fell 30% (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7426.0 )
NUVO – fell 80+% ... never got around to making it a separate post.

Ok ... that's all I have... I'll miss you all tomorrow while I'm slaving away at my new 9-5. Dang it...
-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

Ok ... love the new job ... not as much as all of you ... but it will do.
No time to watch the QQQQs or figure out an AM to AM strategy... Being on the west coast, I'm still trying to deal with the time change of going back to work 9-5... and not getting a nappy nap at 1. hahahaHAHAHAHAHA

If anyone has any good ideas for an hands off strategy ... I'll listen.

But here is an update on the skew stocks I like to track:

SKEW STOCKS
REMOVED:
NFLD - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7227.0
OK ... NFLD fell out of bed in after hours trading when it was announced that 46 of their patients died compared to 35 on the "standard treatment".They are saying it's preliminary ... not significant...but this just breaks my heart.

OPEN/still waiting for move:
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0

NEW WATCH LIST:
ALD - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching
KTC - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching

WATCH LIST REMOVED
VRTX - no longer has options that are skewed - course the stock has dropped 13%
COGN - The skew has gone
DPTR - The skew has gone
PACR - The Jan09 options have been removed

OK ... I guess that's all for now.
-Sam

[Samantha Stephens]

OK - think I'll pass on doing the "Samantha Skew Report" today. With no trading on Monday, I'm not sure I'll be able to find anything interesting. I've cleared out my watch list and removed one of my skew stocks. That only leaves me with one stock still waiting to move... AGIX. Keep an eye on this one. I can't get a feel for the timing of the move, but everyone is expecting the move to be really big ... up or down.

SKEW STOCKS
REMOVED:
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0 - fell over 70% when their cancer drug dissappointed.

OPEN/still waiting for move:
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0

WATCH LIST REMOVED:
Both of these just never got interesting. The IVs were skewed at such a low level, that I think it's not worth tracking them.
ALD - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching
KTC - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching

-Samantha

[Samantha Stephens]

OK ... so with the holidays and short weeks and all ... I haven't run the Samantha Skew Report in a couple weeks. I ran it tonight and there's nothing new to report.

I know you all hang on that report for brilliant ideas ... hahahah ... OK ... maybe not.

So, the only stock I had left was - AGIX. I'm not convinced the moves are done, but the options are no longer skewed, so I'm taking if off the list. I now have no stocks to watch ... until I find some new ones!

SKEW STOCKS
REMOVED:
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0

So ... what have I learned this week? Working with people who refuse to join the technological revolution ... and automate their processes ... are frustrating. Neighbors that can afford to pitch in on locking mailboxes but won't ... are infuriating. And confronting littering neighbors ... takes balls that I now know I have ... and it's a great adrenalin rush! Boy I miss trading the market ... I'm sure everyone around me wishes I would lock myself in my office and just leave them all alone!!!!! hahahahahHAHAHAHAHAHA

I pray for snow so I can play with you all in the market.

I'll post revelations as I get them...

Over and out!
-Samantha

[wrangler]

  It's been a while since you've been here. Are you still trading or taking a breather?
   

[Samantha Stephens]

I think you could call my absence a required breather. I got a job, my computer crashed ... ok ... so it was 10 years old ... only had a 16 gig hard drive. hahahahaha

The new computer came with Vista and that isn't compatable with my trading software. My online broker warned me ... but I just figured that was a friendly ... if you load it ... it will probably run ... but don't count on us helping you if you have issues. Turns out, it really doesn't run. So I need to figure out how to get that resolved.

So I can't really track on the market as much as I want to ... and without my trading software, I can't come up with any fun option ideas.

I think it's the gods way of telling me to take a break ... hahahahHAHAHAHAHA

But don't you worry ... I'll be back ... I just need to make you all miss me a bit.
-Samantha

[Terliso]

You should not use Vista yet, it is a new operating system..let it sit at least for a year before buying it - lots of bugs and incompatibility with hardwares and softwares out there.

[Quasi]

Hi Samantha

Sorry to hear about your computer problems, been there done that, so I know how you feel.  I agree with Terliso that I would not switch to Vista for at least a year or so until most of the bugs are ironed out.

Assume maybe you had Windows XP with SP2 on the old computer, you might consider putting that operating system on your new computer.  (unless the 10 yr old system  had something like Windows 95, then forget it).  Of course Bill G / Mr. Softy, does not like you to move the operating system from one machine to another and will make you jump thru a few hoops to do it, but it usually is possible, might need to get a computer geek to help you thru it.  Also can be a few extra hoops if you have an XP upgrade disk rather than a virgin OEM install disk, but still possible.

At this point I would also recommend adding a second hard disk, they are relatively inexpensive these days and give you a lot of benefits.

Years ago I got tired of occasionally deleting something I later wanted, or had a problem that corrupted some data that I later wanted to retrieve, or a hard disk crash.  I started this system in DOS way back when running Windows 95, I'm sure there are lots of systems that you can buy now that will do similar things, but this still works well for me.

My system is about 3 yrs old, running XP SP2, and I have two separate hard disks.  I partition each hard disk with separate drives for the;  1- operating system,  2- data,  3- temp files and 4- backup data.  I run a batch file automatically every night (3:00 AM) that copies my data over to the secondary hard disk backup section, and I bump these files back for 7 days, then bump back 4 weekly copies which then bump into 4 monthly copies. So I can also go back a fair ways if I need to find some old data that hasn't been corrupted by some recent event.

I also clone an image file of my operating system into the operating system area of  the backup disk  (manually every couple of months).  That way if I have a hard disk crash I can just change the boot system to start-up in the other disk and I'm back up and running in about 3 minutes.

Just some ideas you might want to consider.

Happy Investing / Trading
Quasi

[Terliso]

I agree with Quasi...you have to partition your primary hard drive, if your primary hard drive has 80gig capacity, partition it to 4, 20gig each. Install 4 operating systems; 1 each/partition this is called "Quadruple Boot" 2 for XP & 2 for Vista. and buy a secondary hard drive specifically for storing data or for back-up use. Don't forget to install anti-virus program for each operating system, It's time consuming but worth it.

I did this in my computer, if one of my operating system will crash while the market is open, all I have to do is re-start my system and switch to the other OS and continue the stocks trading and deal with the computer problem later.

I still have Local Disk(G) & (H) available and these are reserved for Vista, a very sleek OS it's very similar to Mac OS X but I'll buy Vista after a year or so, I'll let others use it first and let them deal with the Microsoft bugs.

[Quasi]

Hi all,

Yes I agree with Terliso, re anitvirus on for each operating system.

However I also add the following for security.

1- Do not connect directly to the internet, go thru a hardware router, this will block alot of unwanted unsolicited traffic / hackers.  I run a 3 computer network that is hardwired off my router, if you use a wireless one make sure the connections are securely passworded.   And avoid using the cheaper hubs to split you internet to multiple computers as they don't care, they pass thru all requests in both directions.

2- Run a fire wall on all computers, I use ZoneAlarm the free version.  Works great and is quite configurable and blocks unauthorized outgoing traffic also.  Don't rely on Windows fire wall as it is not very configurable and does not block any outgoing traffic from trojans that are trying to "call home", ie little programs that get on your system, gather info, then connect to the internet and forward that info to who knows where without your permission.

http://www.zonelabs.com/store/content/company/products/znalm/freeDownload.jsp


3- Anti virus, used pay for Norton, now I just run the free version of AVG from Grisoft.  No bells and whistles but works fine.

http://free.grisoft.com/freeweb.php/doc/2/

4 - Go to Gibson Research and check out your system security, one of the best sites on the web for checking your system against hackers, plus lots of other security info.  To check your system security just follow the link below and go down to the section on "Shields Up", you will then be guided on how to check your systems port security.   My system is set up to operate in full stealth mode, ie even if someone gets my IP address and trys to hack me it appears as if there is no physical machine currently at that address.

http://www.grc.com/default.htm


Just  a few more ideas to look into.

Quasi

[Samantha Stephens]

Ya... I know.

Usually I'm a late adopter. But ... just this once, I thought I'd go for it! hahahahah....

D'oh!

I'll get it figured out... somehow...
But... I think you're all missing me ... and that was in fact part of my evil plan!

-Sam

[Samantha Stephens]

OK - Thought I'd give you all an update.

I talked to schwab and they got my trading software to work!!!! And ... I figured out the easiest way to get my contacts/calendar/tasks from old computer to new was just to email them to myself. Not very hightech ... but what do you expect from someone who just got rid of her 16 gig computer. So ... now I'm feeling pretty spunky about Vista ... now if I could just figure out where they hid everything in Office 2007 ... I'll be set!!!!!!

Ok ... I'll post interesting stuff as soon as I find something!
-Sam

[wrangler]

Welcome back and remember you can always ask for help even if it doesn't concern stocks.
Even if you don't know anyboby on this site look at the response you got about you're computer and vista.
It's a community and that's what makes this site special.