HAUP

[rayongthai]

Hey Setravis. I am impressed, your Spanish is admirable.... and you even have a great sense of humor....

Gracias amigo. Cambie de mayusculas a minusculas come sugeriste.

[setravis]

Hey Setravis. I am impressed, your Spanish is admirable.... and you even have a great sense of humor....

Gracias amigo. Cambie de mayusculas a minusculas come sugeriste.

Gracias amigo, for the change from uppercase to lowercase. Bueno !
Yes I do have a, Sentido del humor......
But I don't know about my Spanish, it leaves a lot to be desired....


Today's closing chart.....

[rayongthai]

Setravis,

Thank you for the chart.

[rayongthai]

HAUP will rally at the end of the day and into tomorrow IMO.  With CES show in Vegas next week, HAUP could be a big gainer next week and beyond. Remember, record 1Q 2007 earnings are expected 6 weeks from now.

Right now HAUP is undervalued  trading at 0.6 P/S and growing at 20%/year. Net income in 2007 could reach 50c/share for the first time in company's history with all the big OEM deals that HAUP recently inked.

[rayongthai]

 

[rayongthai]

Let's see what HAUP brings to the CES show in Las Vegas. I expect an announcement in the next two days.

[la-onda]

nice news:
Hauppauge Launches New WinTV Products for Windows Vista
Monday January 8, 9:01 am ET
Four New Vista Compatible Products for Analog and Digital TV Reception Introduced at CES

LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Hauppauge Digital, Inc., the world's leading developer and manufacturer of analog and digital video, TV, and data broadcast receiver products for personal computers, has launched a line of four new TV tuner products specifically designed to support Microsoft's Vista Media Center and to take full advantage of Vista's exciting TV features.

After five years in development, the Windows Vista launch is finally at hand and eager PC users will want to make the switch as quickly as possible. When they do, Hauppauge is ready to support Vista Media Center with its new line of TV tuners for PCs and laptops, to ensure a seamless transition to the most advanced home entertainment system. The comprehensive new selection of four tuners will allow Vista users to watch, record, and play back analog NTSC, European DVB-T digital TV and North American high definition digital ATSC TV, combining WinTV's well-known quality and convenience with the cutting-edge Vista Media Center application.

The new WinTV products for Vista Media Center are:

    * WinTV-NOVA-TD-500--For the European and Asian markets, WinTV-NOVA-TD-500 is a dual tuner digital DVB-T TV tuner board that can be used in either a dual tuner or diversity configuration. Diversity uses two tuners to give better digital TV reception on a single DVB-T digital channel, while the dual tuner mode enables you to watch one digital TV channel while recording another digital channel.
    * WinTV-HVR-1800--For the North American market where the ATSC digital TV transition continues, WinTV-HVR-1800 is a PCI Express TV tuner for receiving analog cable and high definition ATSC digital TV. In a half-height PCIe board, WinTV-HVR-1800 has separate tuners for analog NTSC and ATSC digital TV. With Vista's Media Center application, you can watch a cable TV channel while recording high definition digital TV from another channel.
    * WinTV-HVR-1600--This is an analog cable TV and high definition digital ATSC PCI TV tuner for Vista PCs. On a single full-height PCI board, WinTV-HVR-1600 has separate tuners for analog NTSC and ATSC digital TV. With Vista's Media Center, you can watch an analog TV channel while recording high definition digital TV from another channel.
    * WinTV-HVR-1500--A dual format hybrid analog and high definition digital 54 mm ExpressCard TV tuner, WinTV-HVR-1400 brings NTSC analog and high definition ATSC digital TV to laptop computers running Vista's Media Center in North America. Watch and record either analog or high definition digital TV on your Vista Media Center PC.

Hauppauge's new Vista compatible TV tuners join WinTV-HVR-1100, WinTV-PVR-150, WinTV-PVR-500 and WinTV-PVR-USB2 as Vista Premium certified products, giving Hauppauge the most complete line up of Vista Premium TV receivers in the world.

Price and availability:

All of the products announced for Vista will be available starting this month. Pricing will range from $99 through $149.

rayongthai,whats up with AEHR 

cheers
O.

[rayongthai]

TODAY"S CES NEWS......VISTA>>>VISTA>>>VISTA

Hauppauge Launches New WinTV Products for Windows Vista

Monday January 8, 9:01 am ET

Four New Vista Compatible Products for Analog and Digital TV Reception Introduced at CES


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108005838.html?.v=1


CES IS ICING ON CAKE...REAL REASONS WHY HAUP WILL BE $15 IN 2007

$98M in Revenues...25c/share net income...Growing at 20%/year....$1/share cash...No debt.....$67M market cap....4.5M share float.

.....and HAUP's P/S ratio is less than 0.7!!!....comparables are trading between 1.5 and 4.5

When HAUP reports 1Q 2007 earnings during the 3rd week of February it will likely report revenues in excess of $30 for the first time. 1Q net income will likely exceed the total fiscal 2006 net income of 25c/share.


Here is 2006 record/surprise earnings report summary (reported on December 26):


** Sales increase of 24% leads to record fiscal year sales of $97.7 million (compared to $78.5M in 2005).

** Net income increases by 74% for fiscal 2006 (25c/share vs. 15c/share in 2005).

** Cash increased from $7.9M in 2005 to $9M in 2006 or $1/share

** ZERO long-term debt


RECENT OEM AGREEMENTS THAT WILL FUEL HAUP'S FUTURE GROWTH

HAUP and Orb Networks have a strong partnership. Orb is now bundled with Hauppauge's WinTV products in the U.S. as well as in the UK.

Orb provides the technology base to let you watch your home media content wherever you happen to be. Music, video and pictures from your home can be available to you whether you are waiting at the airport, sitting in your car, or stuck late at the office.

The potential seems virtually unlimited, and if Orb continues to catch on. So far, over 1.5 million hours of media have been streamed by Orb customers

Replay TV and HAUP are now teaming to go after TIVO and others in the sector. Replay TV provides the software and Hauppauge provides the hardware and additional software. Together they provide more flexibility and power than TIVO, including the use of mobile devices, and a fraction of the TIVO's cost.

Replay TV is owned by multi-billion dollar entertaiment/consumer electronics' giant D&M Holdings. D&M owns industry flagships such as Denon, Marantz, McIntosh, Boston Acoustics, Snell Acoustics, Escient, and Replay TV. D&M Holdings acquired Denon and Marantz in 2002; McIntosh in 2003; Replay TV in 2004; Boston Acosutics and Snell in 2005.

COMMENTS FROM CEO PLOTKIN REGARDING HAUP'S MOSR RECENT FINANCIAL RESULTS:

"We believe that our sales increase for the year was due primarily to the growing acceptance of TV as part of the PC multimedia experience, a market we serve with our WinTV-PVR, WinTV-NOVA and WinTV-HVR products.

Helping the sales increase in the quarter was growth in sales of our digital TV tuner receivers for PCs and notebooks plus sales growth of TV receivers for Media Center PCs. In addition, we saw a turnaround in European sales when compared to the previous year's fourth quarter.

During the quarter, we started shipping the WinTV-HVR-950 "stick", our hybrid dual format TV tuner for North America plus the new quad format WinTV-HVR-4000 designed for the European market. The WinTV-HVR-950 stick is a pocket sized, external TV receiver which allows for the viewing of ATSC high definition TV plus NTSC cable TV on your PC or laptop. The WinTV-HVR-4000 is Hauppauge's first product with high-definition satellite TV reception.

For the fiscal year, strong sales of our TV receivers for Media Center PCs plus sales of newly introduced digital TV receivers contributed to a 24% annual sales growth. By keeping corporate expenses under control while we increased our R&D budget, we were able to see a 74% increase in net income and also introduced a record number of new products."

Do your DD....

[Melf Elf]

As those of you who read this folder and the 3SOF Picks portolio know, I didn't like the "Pump and Dump" history in this stock, and I also don't play stocks that are this thinly traded.

But, since David and Michael looked into the fundamentals, and since David selected it for a 3SOF Pick, I took a look at it this weekend and was glad to see that it's doing well.

Two observations:

1. Head & Shoulders Top

I mentioned Friday morning in the ONT folder about the takeout of the Right Shoulder of the H&S Top in HLIT, which David also has selected for the 3SOF Portfilio.


It turns out that there's an excellent example of that in the HAUP chart, only its a DOUBLE H&S Top!  See the two necklines?

When the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top is taken out to the upside, that can very nice because, for one big reason, it presents a problem for anyone who shorted the pattern, thinking that it was bearish, which it often is.

In the case of HAUP, we can see that when the second neckline got put in at 4.68, the pattern was looking pretty ugly, and that anyone short was understandly licking his chops, in anticipation of the breakdown.

When the 5.47 high of the Right Shoulder got taken out to the upside...

Uh-oh-h....Shorts Beware... 

When the 6.10 high of the Head got taken out to the upside...

Uh-oh-h...Shorts are forced to "Buy To Cover" because who knows how high its going when resistance is taken out.

   

To measure the pattern target, you take the 6.10 high, substract where the lower neckline was when that high was made, the ADD that to 6.10, rather than subtract it, if the pattern had broken down.

The print of 6.11, a penny above the 6.10 high, put 7.65 IN PLAY, which MADE on January 8.

2. Bearish Wolfe Wave

A Bearish Wolfe has "Lead-In" Rally to Data Point #1 (blue). 

It has an upward bias, making "higher highs and higher lows," which typically is bullish, but in this case it isn't.  It's very much like a Rising Wedge, and it's also "terminal," like a Rising Wedge, if it gets broken to the downside, meaning that the rally is over for the short-term, and possibly longer.

One of the "tells" in a Wolfe Wave pattern is that the stock has a false breakout of some kind to the upside at Wave 5.  It might even close above the top of the pattern, but then it comes back inside it, and then breaks below the pattern.

In this pattern in HAUP, there are FOUR tags of the top of the pattern, so the stock is responding to it.   

Since there was a bullish outcome to what appeared to be a very Bearish H&S Top, there's good reason to suspect that HAUP might put on the booster rockets, and take off to the upside out of what appears to be a Bearish Wolfe Wave.

If, however, there's an upside fakeout here, at Wave #5, and HAUP then breaks below the pattern, that suggests a bearish outcome.

In that event, the downside target at Wave #6 is derived by connecting the high of Wave #1 and the low of Wave #4.

Just something to watch, for anyone interested.

I'll post the MACD chart next.

[Melf Elf]

At the 6.10 high of the H&S Top in October, there was a Negative Divergence in the MACD Histogram which resulted in a 23.3% decline in HAUP before it recovered, and took out the 6.10 high to the upside.

During the current Bearish Wolfe Wave formation there is a DOUBLE negative divergence here at the top of the pattern, at Friday's 7.90 close, which is another indication to be watchful for a false breakout here, at Wave 5, or no breakout at all.

A strong "turn on the booster rockets" white candle or two to the upside here would be nice.

[rickjust]

hi melf,
nice analysis.
can you explain the macd divergance? the straight line hasn't crossed the dotted line yet on your chart  so how do you see that  as a divergance? or are you just considering the histogram tick down ,
thanks,
maxi

[ScottishTrader]

Hmm...  Intersting, Melf.  I am not totally convined by the WW formation, mainly because as you have drawn it on the daily chart, the support and resistance lines are not converging, which I thought was an important part of the wolfewave pattern.  Also, I'm not convinced we have seen the point 5 upside fake-out yet (maybe that was your point, to watch out for it).  Anyway, I think that having a look at the 30 minute chart for HAUP is also quite informative.  I'll  put in 2 charts that show slightly different timescales, and also have slightly different trendlines, which give slightly different interpretations to the current situation.  Despite being relatively thinly traded, HAUP has been responding well to support and resistance, as can be seen below.  

In the first chart, which is a 30 minute chart dating back to the beginning of December (for some reason my 60 min chart just comes up with points, and looks a mess) I have drawn in an ascending channel with parallel support and resistance, that HAUP has been traversing.  I think the point to note here is that HAUP has been spiking outside the top of this channel lately, which could be suggestive of a point 5 WW fakeout.  I put the target of this "channel WolfeWave" around 6.20 right now (will have to go and have another look, but I'm not sure whether WWs can form in parallel channels). However, if the price breaks down, it could also find support at the base of the channel, forgoing the WW target.  I also currently see horizontal support kicking in at 7.65, 7.25 and 6.50.  The second point to note is the steeper ascending support line formed after the early Jan 6.50 reversal, which I'll discuss below (and can be seen more clearly on the second chart).

The second chart is also a 30 minute chart but over a slightly shorter timespan.  We can clearly see a clear rising wedge formation, with 3 (possibly more) hits on each rail.   The main difference between the charts is that the rising wedge resistance line is a bit different to the channel resistance line in slope and connection points, but to me it looks valid.  Right at the end of trading on Friday, HAUP tagged the support rail, and bounced off it again.  Both the daily and intraday charts show $8 as clear resistance, and it seems obvious that if HAUP were to break above $8 this week, it would probably run another 5-10%, if not more.  A breakdown from the rising wedge could send HAUP down to test $6.50 support.

Also on the 30 minute chart, a pair of smaller ascending triangles can be seen over recent trading, again with clear $8 resistance.  The smaller one gives a technical target of 8.34, the larger one gives a technical target of 8.77.  It remains to be seen whether these short term patterns will resolve themselves to the upside with a break of $8 this week (probably Tuesday) or the rising wedge formation will take control, sending HAUP back down to test the base of the channel.  

However, as I see it, the chains have been set.  A break above $8 should send HAUP to new highs.  A break below 7.75 will more than likely lead to a drop of 10% or more.  I intend to set my trading plan accordingly, with a stop just below this level.  I like HAUP, and I do think we could see new highs, but I have already been swung out of it twice, because of its volatility (and setting my stops too tightly).  My current entry price is 7.60, and I don't intend to come out of this trade with a loss.  Any other comments are, as always, appreciated.

[Se7en]

hi melf,
nice analysis.
can you explain the macd divergance? the straight line hasn't crossed the dotted line yet on your chart  so how do you see that  as a divergance? or are you just considering the histogram tick down ,
thanks,
maxi

Here you can find more info about positive and negative divergence, it's doesn't necessarily has to be about a crossing of the 2 lines but it's about lower highs, ... :

http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_MACD1.html

A negative divergence forms when the security advances or moves sideways and MACD declines. The negative divergence in MACD can take the form of either a lower high or a straight decline. Negative divergences are probably the least common of the three signals, but are usually the most reliable and can warn of an impending peak.

[rickjust]

thanks

[Melf Elf]

can you explain the macd divergance? the straight line hasn't crossed the dotted line yet on your chart  so how do you see that  as a divergance? or are you just considering the histogram tick down ,
thanks,
maxi

Maxi,

Yes, I'm referring to the histogram, that it was weaker at Wave #3 than it was at Wave #1, and that on this push higher in the MACD itself to Wave #5, the histogram Double Topped just below where it was at Wave #3, and then ticked down on Friday.

[ it's doesn't necessarily has to be about a crossing of the 2 lines but it's about lower highs, ... :

Negative divergences are probably the least common of the three signals, but are usually the most reliable and can warn of an impending peak.

Se7en,

Thanks for that.  Applause.

Yes, MACD often acts as a lead indicator, in this case, warning of impending weakness as it did at the 6.10 top last autumn, but PRICE has to confirm that weakness.

Hmm...  Intersting, Melf.  I am not totally convined by the WW formation, mainly because as you have drawn it on the daily chart, the support and resistance lines are not converging, which I thought was an important part of the wolfewave pattern.

Scotsman,

You've got me there.  I don't think that they have to converge, but we won't worry about it because Wolfe Wave targets, lke anything else, don't always get MADE.

The important thing is to watch how the stock responds to the support and resistance that you've mentioned, particularly to anything that looks like a Wave 5 fakeout, with the MACD warning of the possibility of impending weakness.

Also, I'm not convinced we have seen the point 5 upside fake-out yet (maybe that was your point, to watch out for it).

Exactly my point.  Watch out for it. 

The set-up for a Wave 5 fakeout on technical weakness is there, but HAUP just as easily could put on the booster rockets, and accelerate to the upside, as I said.

Very nice job on your analysis, Scotsman.  Applause.