XNN

[bjc]

I'm afraid I might have to go against the wise words of Melf, idiotically perhaps, and ignore the short term technicals. 

$2.50 should provide good support from the long term.  I think we see a bounce soon.

This revenue growth is substantial.  Does anyone know anything about the price of the Supervision and the nighthunterII? 

[Melf Elf]

I'm afraid I might have to go against the wise words of Melf, idiotically perhaps, and ignore the short term technicals. 

$2.50 should provide good support from the long term.  I think we see a bounce soon.

bjc,

I agree that 2.45-2.50 "should be" good support, and that XXN "should" bounce here, after falling 38.3% from Tuesday's 4.05 high.

My main concern on the break of the Bearish Wolfe Wave was the amount of risk involved if the target got MADE, which was substantial (27½% loss from the break), and my concern here is "what if" 2.45-2.50 doesn't hold?

After the Bearish Wolfe Wave target MADE at #6 on this chart, XNN had little rally, then rolled over and took out Thursday's 2.61 low.

It's possible that the Bearish Wolfe Wave has morphed into a H&S Top. 

The neckline would be the 2.45 low at Wolfe Wave #1, on December 4, and the 2.61 low at the Wolfe Wave target #6.

The Right Shoulder would be the little rally off the Wolfe Wave target, at #6.

If that's what we've got, the H&S Top already has completed, and it already has broken to the downside.

If XNN can rally back above that "possible" neckline, that would put it out of Harm's Way and would put any further downside ON HOLD as long as it trades above there, but what XNN really needs to do, is to knock out the high of the "possible" Right Shoulder (the trading in the little circle, late Thursday and on Friday).   

That would give the Bulls some encouragement, and some confidence to enter the stock long on an upside takeout of that shoulder.

In the interim, XNN is at risk for "A Parabolic Rally...And A Parabolic Return."

I'll explain that, next post on the daily chart, then we'll look at how both the 34/55 RSIs and the MACD are bullishly positioned here.

[Melf Elf]

Another H&S Top possibility is that Friday's 2.49 low is the second data point for the neckline, which would make the neckline 2.45...2.49, XNN will rally here and put in a Right Shoulder at something under 3.60, then it will break the neckline and go down to the gap for a "Parabolic Return" of the 8-day 212% rally.

I'd suggest watching the quality of the next rally.  Right Shoulders usually have volume that it less than the volume was in the Left Shoulder and in the Head.  Right Shoulders also usually fail at some number below the high of the Left Shoulder, which was 3.60, on November 30.

If we see that, and then a break of 2.45-2.49 support, the Parabolic Return to the gap will be IN PLAY.

I never predict anything.  That's just what I'd watch for, and I'd also use that 2.45-2.49 for a stop loss since it would be a broken pattern, and since there isn't any "logical support" below that.  Technically, the stock would be at risk of going into freefall to the downside on a print of 2.44.

Just a suggestion.

Next, the 34/55RSI chart.

[Melf Elf]

The 34/55RSIs are beautifully positioned at Bullish Synchronicity.  The 34 RSI is 0.06 above the 55 RSI, so they're very compressed, which seems to act somewhat like Bollinger Bands, if you've ever observed a compression in the bands, prior to a rally or a breakdown.

At Bulish Synchronicity, I use the high of that day at my Buy pivot, so that's 2.88, Friday's high.  A print today of 2.89 would be a Buy Signal from this particular indicator.

We always want to look at the chart when any indicator gives us a signal.  In this particular case, we want to see XNN take out the high of that "possible" Right Shoulder in the hourly chart.

[Melf Elf]

MACD is nicely positioned to bang higher off its signal line on any rally. 

What we wouldn't want to see, is for XNN to put in a Right Shoulder then break the neckline, with MACD double-topping and going down below its signal line.

That would suggest confirmation of that sort of breakdown in the chart. 

Good luck to everyone!

[bjc]

Bought today at $2.73. 

I found the price of Supervision to be $1,100 to 1,400 depending on who the customer is, govt gets price break.  They said in their most recent quarterly report they expect to deliver 10,000 Supervisions between Jan and Aug 07, so this gives you a general revenue estimate of easily $10 mil + for these two Qs.  Before the most recent quarter, revenues had never even totaled $1 million in a quarter before. 

XNN might be the topic of a CNBC program this evening at 6:00. 

Closed at 2.61.

[tokyopua]

In at 2.48 with a tight stop below the recent 2.45 support, dont want to be in the slide that Melf predicted if that support breaks.

[Melf Elf]

In at 2.48 with a tight stop below the recent 2.45 support,  dont want to be in the slide that Melf predicted if that support breaks.

Tok,

That's a nice, low-risk entry, excluding a gap down below 2.45, of course.

I saw this morning's 2.45 low flash on my screen at 9:49AM, then XNN went right back to 2.50.  I didn't have the Time & Sales open, but that might have been only one trade at 2.45, then buyers stepped in to support the stock.   

The open and close of that 1-minute bar both were 2.50.

Good luck!  I hope that you and others who are long get a nice rally now.

[tokyopua]

In at 2.48 with a tight stop below the recent 2.45 support,  dont want to be in the slide that Melf predicted if that support breaks.

Tok,

That's a nice, low-risk entry, excluding a gap down below 2.45, of course.

I saw this morning's 2.45 low flash on my screen at 9:49AM, then XNN went right back to 2.50.  I didn't have the Time & Sales open, but that might have been only one trade at 2.45, then buyers stepped in to support the stock.   

The open and close of that 1-minute bar both were 2.50.

Good luck!  I hope that you and others who are long get a nice rally now.

Thanks Melf    I guess I was one of those buyers who stepped in to support the stock.  I had my first order in at 2.46, then raised the bid to 2.48 and got filled.  Then I was actually feeling a bit uncertain and was about to cancel the order, but it got filled and I figured I would just go with it, lol.

It could still go against me but I have to admit a bit of instant gratification there as I saw XNN shoot up to the 2.7 range there for awhile right after the trade.  And my portoflio balance was in the red, but that brought it positive.

There was another potential bottom today that I was watching but didnt bite at, I could have gotten SKNN at 2.0 and its at 2.20, up a nice 10%.  I am hoping that one touches near its recent breakout range in which case I might get back in.

Anyway, XNN back at 2.55, making a doji for the day, and the 5 minute chart shows this could be support, hopefully it stays up there for the day.

[tokyopua]

Just stopped out at 2.41, but I dont really feel bad since SYX is rocking now 

[Terliso]

XNN reacted nicely from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement

[Terliso]

-- XNN never close above 50sma in weekly chart since the IPO.
If this trendline holds then we got Ascending Triangle pattern in play....

[Melf Elf]

My main concern on the break of the Bearish Wolfe Wave was the amount of risk involved if the target got MADE, which was substantial (27½% loss from the break), and my concern here is "what if" 2.45-2.50 doesn't hold?

XNN broke 2.45-2.50 support, and today, broke more important 2.33-2.34 support.  It's now is down 42.2% from the break of the Bearish Wolfe Wave, at 3.60, that we discussed back in December.

UGH.

I'm sorry to see that for those of you still long.

"When the fundamentals and the technicals don't agree, defer to the technicals."

That isn't ALWAYS going to work.  Nothing ALWAYS works, and you might miss out on a gain.  But, consider this:

1. If you sell technical breaks of support, you're not going to get clobbered for big double-digit losses like this.

2. There are plenty of other stocks to play, that have promising fundamentals, and that don't break technical support, like XNN has.

Just a suggestion.

[REALDEALS21]

Stock down due to panic selling. Here is some good news that was released today.

Press Release   Source: Xenonics Holdings, Inc.

Xenonics Receives $1.5 Million in Follow-On Purchase Orders for Its NightHunterII Illumination Systems From the Defense Logistics Agency and U.S. Army 1st Cavalry Division
Monday January 8, 9:15 am ET

CARLSBAD, Calif., Jan. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XENONICS HOLDINGS, INC. (Amex: XNN - News), a leader in advanced illumination and low-light viewing technologies, announced today that it has received follow-on purchase orders totaling approximately $1.5 million for its NightHunterII high-intensity illumination devices from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) and the U.S. Army 1st Cavalry Division.

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The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) order for 241 NightHunterII systems valued at approximately $547,000 was shipped in December 2006. This follows a DLA order for 804 units that were shipped in September 2006.

The U.S. Army 1st Cavalry Division has ordered 400 NightHunterIIs valued at approximately $1 million, which were shipped in January 2007. This follows an initial purchase order from the 1st CAV, 4th BCT for 150 NightHunterII systems that was shipped in September 2006.

"We are pleased to continue to support the requirements of our military for our life-saving NightHunter products," said Chairman Alan Magerman. He noted that Xenonics had expected to receive and ship the 1st CAV follow-on order in December, which would have contributed to Xenonics' fiscal 2007 first quarter operating results; instead, the order will be reflected in results for the second fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2007.

[Melf Elf]

Stock down due to panic selling. Here is some good news that was released today.

REALDEALS,

Unfortunately, the response to good news looks to be very negative, doesn't it?

The Symmetrical Triangle Target of 1.96 MADE, and XNN is trading a bit below that, down 53% from the high at 4.05. 

UGH.  Horrible, to be long in a situation like this.   

Math for the Symmetrical Triangle:

2.71 - High of the pattern

2.33 - Low of the pattern

2.71 - 2.33 = 0.38 points

Break below 2.34 - 0.38 Points = Target: 1.96.

Today's low is 1.90.  The high, prior to the Parabolic Rally to 4.05, was 1.89, so XNN has made a Parabolic Return to the trading range, prior to the Parabolic Rally. 

The 200DMA was at 1.87386 yesterday, and rising, so 1.87-1.89 is DOUBLE support here, and XNN "should" at least get a bounce.

My point yesterday was please try not to hold through these awful breaks of support.  Patience is a virtue, but that applies to winners.

"Be patient with your winners, be very impatient with your losers."

All of you know that I am strongly against doubling down on a big loser like this.  Over time, it's a terrible strategy.

I hesitate even to say this, but if I had this kind of huge loss and were to "tempt the market gawds" on a double down, this is the place that I would do it, with a very firm stop at 1.86...or 1.85...

I wouldn't fool around, though, and give it very much on the downside, "hoping" that the market woud save me.  It generally doesn't.

I'm not recommending a Double Down, guys.  Just trying to help out anyone who is hurting on this one.

Good luck to everyone!