SMSI

[la-onda]

link to the CC:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth8/smsi/
based on the information given during the CC I am expecting better Q3 results as expected by the analysis

updated chart!

[sebfr]

Hi,

i Apllaud you for having animate this stock and commentary.

Well when i see the chart i believe a sell strategy is possible...I know feeling about SMSI is bullish but for me, in short term strategy, we can sell this stock...If I am wrong, it is life !

Close at 13.63
target at 11.26
Stop loss at 14.20

Reward/Risk ratio of 21 / 4.18 = 5...

[sebfr]

hI,

Yesterday a Doji was formed. This shows indecision about the direction of the market and it represents a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish (Doji) Star Pattern . This is a bearish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend.

Gap of breakaway has been tested and it not filled...Today is a decisive day ! Buyers or sellers ? It is a game

[vic666]

well...i did short the stock today at $12.85 today afternoon. it broke thru 20 MA..and closed below it.

1.) seems to be heading to 50MA of 12.48 (1st target)

2.) also, the trendline joining the highs from the recent past (see chart), i.e 16.70 and 15.34, should offer a support level right about where it closed today...$12.75 ish...but I think it will be broken on monday, atleast thats where I'm placing my bets on...and it;s no blind bet, coz I see my 2 fav. indicators, the MACD and stochastics, poinitng to a short term downtrend...

3.) also, volume has increased today compared to the last few days...pointing to a build up of gradual selling pressure. also, the market was up today, but SMSI was pretty much in RED all day long. it's time for a breather IMO.

3.) break of the 50 MA at $12.48 should make this retest $11.40 (recent low formed on Aug 24th)..so that's my next target.

4.) if it breaks $11.40, next targte is the 200 MA...should offer strong support at $11.00

ok...my trade has been executed...it's time to stop asking the "WHY" questions, and start lookin at "WHAT" happens with the stock.

no questions once u enter the battlefield. i'll just wait and see WHAT the stock does. 

[la-onda]

a Hammer has formed yesterday 

[1reilly]

I haven't posted anything for some time but do stop by to see how all you folks are doing. IMHO this stock should be a long only bias. The fundamentals will drive this stock much higher in the next 12 months. I added to my original position 4 times in august and believe that although shorts can make money those trades will cloud what should be a buy on dips discipline. I bought this stock in the 5's and added twice. Ended up with a three bagger and lost half my position on 14 stop. Hated my self until I had the opportunity to add in Aug again. My point is that had I had a trading mentality with this one I would have not been adding again in the 9's. Yesterday this stock shook off news that has buried some of 3sof stocks. Why? I think it's the fundamentals. Think about how you can get long this for the long term there are 1000's of other great stocks to short. Food for thought. Good trading to you all.

[la-onda]

another upgrade

Smith Micro Software "buy"

Wednesday, September 20, 2006 2:26:12 AM ET
Lazard Capital Markets

NEW YORK, September 20 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on Smith Micro Software Inc (ticker: SMSI). The target price is set to $24.

In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that QuickLink Mobile is expected to contribute to the company's revenues in 3Q. Smith Micro Software is expected to generate robust revenue growth and healthy gross margins going forward on account of the beginning of a renewal cycle for the Allume consume software products, the analysts say. The company has filed a shelf offering with the SEC, which would enable it to raise capital more quickly in the future, Lazard Capital adds.

[la-onda]

just FYI (from MyVillage)

Subject:   Nollenberger Capital Partners analyst comments     
Sentiment:

We believe that Smith Micro Software offers investors one of the best opportunities to capitalize on the accelerating demand for multimedia mobile data applications. Its software products enable next-generation mobile carriers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and subscribers to leverage the full capabilities of the widening gamut of multimedia communications services.


Key Points

* Despite some volatility in Smith Micro Software's share price over the past
few months, checks with a variety of our industry sources suggest that,
with a little over a week remaining in the quarter, the September quarter
may be tracking somewhat ahead of our original expectations.
* Again, it appears that the business gained momentum across the gamut of the
company's product portfolio throughout 3Q06. With an intra-quarter upgrade
in technology from several of the company's partners, we expect that the
core QuickLink Mobile business has regained its more sustainable growth
path.
* Several of our sources indicate that demand for the company's music
products has been particularly strong during the quarter. We feel that the
catalyst for accelerating demand may be due to several factors, including:
1) a wider array of handset partners with music-capable phones available
for shipment, 2) increased customer marketing of Smith Micro's music
products, and 3) expanding customer and end-user awareness of the value
proposition of leveraging the power of the company's music-focused
software.
* With last week's announced availability of QuickLink Music in conjunction
with CTIA Wireless IT & Entertainment 2006, we expect the company to
experience improving gross margins over the next several quarters as the
music product mix increasingly shifts to include a larger percentage of
QuickLink Music.
* Our checks further suggest that the demand for QuickLink Mobile Enterprise
continues to accelerate. With an already solid base, we expect management
to add new meaningful enterprise customers over the next few quarters. We
believe that sales of the Enterprise product may provide increased
visibility while expanding the global presence of Smith Micro's business.
* Over the next several quarters, we expect to see additional product
enhancements, especially in Smith Micro's compression portfolio. We also
expect that the company may add additional partners to further accelerate
sales of its music products. Earlier this week, management reiterated their
expectation to have multiple music customers by the end of FY06.
* With significant upside opportunities and shares trading at 25x and 18x our
FY06 and FY07 estimates, we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 per share
price target on Smith Micro.


Valuation Our price target of $20 per share is approximately 36x our FY06 EPS estimate. In deriving our price target, we have conservatively used a formula of our FY06 EPS estimate of $0.54 multiplied by approximately 1.0x our somewhat slower 37% earnings growth rate estimate for 2007. Risks to Valuation


* One of the primary risks to the company's growth is the non-linear pattern
sometimes experienced with the deployment of new communications services.
Although we expect there could be some changes in growth rate during the
deployment cycles of some customers, continued customer and product
diversification may mitigate this risk.
* A second potential risk is that the company has maintained significant, but
improving, customer concentration over the past two years. During 2004 and
2005, sales to Verizon Wireless accounted for approximately 68.4% and
57.1%, respectively. We expect that as several of the company's other
customers accelerate their deployments and as new customers are announced
throughout the next 12"18 months, we will see this concentration steadily
decline.
* A final concern that investors may share is the viability of demand for
mobile data applications. We feel that the deployment of high-margin mobile
enhanced services is a necessity for all wireless carriers seeking
profitable growth; consequently, the market's growth will likely continue
to be supported for these carriers' "need to exceed beyond speeds and
feeds."

[la-onda]

nice day on no news for SMSI 

[la-onda]

Zacks update:
Special Situations Rated Strong Buys
With Ian T. Gilson
Oct 02, 2006
As the market appears to reach the top of its current cycle, we went looking for stocks we still felt had room to move up from current levels. In our recent discussion with senior analyst Ian Gilson, Ph.D, CFA, we found two such companies within his "special situation" coverage.

We wanted to speak directly about a couple of Buy-recommended small-cap stocks on which you've recently published reports.

Yes, Amerco (UHAL) and Smith Micro Software (SMSI). These are both "special situation" companies that I cover. I have a good relationship with both companies, and do indeed feel they are good Buy prospects.

......
What are your thoughts on your other company, Smith Micro?
Smith Micro has a long history, going back to the early days of personal computers. It provided to companies – particularly Apple Computer (AAPL) – fax software that allowed you to send faxes from your PC. This software, called QuickLink, reached universal status: it was included in every version of U.S. Robotics' modem and every Apple.
The main issue for Smith Micro over the years was that it always had good research, but unfortunately its products were too early for the market up until a year, year and a half ago. What the company's main product does is allows a cell phone to be used as a modem with a laptop and connect to the Internet or any other service where you get cell phone reception. As the technology in the market has improved, the speed goes up. In the past the market was too slow and expensive, but now there are major self-service providers offering high-speed data service.
Smith Micro has a unique and good relationship with Verizon Wireless, which is 53% owned by Verizon Communications (VZ). Smith Micro supplies a PC phone card – basically just a regular cell phone without a keypad or screen – that plugs into a laptop. Its relationship with Verizon expanded once Verizon offered customers music downloads to cell phones, which is now very popular.
As a result, Smith Micro now has two services to offer clients and potential clients, buttressed by two acquisitions. The first acquisition is quite important: Stuffit, which supplies a compression algorithm. Without getting too technical, basically what a compression algorithm does is take a picture, a JPEG – or an MPEG if it is a movie, normally a huge file if it is not compressed – that can be software loaded or embedded in a cell phone. The Stuffit technology is also 30% more efficient than JPEG compression, so what normally would take 10 minutes to download now only takes seven minutes. Basically, this product makes it realistic to use cell phone linkage to download very large files.

Is this offered just through Verizon, or does the company have many partners?

There are a number of relationships Smith Micro has established, not just with Verizon. One other notable company is Dobson Communications (DCEL), the fourth-largest cellular company, which has a very strong presence in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. Smith Micro has also struck a deal with the largest independent distributor of Sprint (S) – which has its own product, but it's not that good – so Smith Micro has found a way to attack Sprint's large market through its top independent distributor. So from the use of regular files using QuickLink software, the company has now added music downloads, and through compression algorithms it will now be able to add other products with large files in 2007 and beyond.

Why is this company considered a "special situation"?

Because there is no company similar to it. None of the companies that compete in that space have products as good, and all are parts of larger companies. Smith Micro is unique in that it stands by itself, the only independent in this group. Our Buy recommendation comes with a six-month price target of $18.

In summation, then, what should investors look for from these companies going forward?

In Smith Micro's case, look for new products which will add to revenue growth going forward. Existing products have been fantastic, with growth in excess of 100% in early quarters. Music is very important and will only become more so; I see continuation of 35-40% growth year-over-year in a market that is still growing. I expect at least a five-year growth phase.

.....

Ian Gilson, CFA is a senior analyst covering special situation companies as well as the display technology industry.

[la-onda]

SMSI is back on track 

cheers
Oliver

[la-onda]

update:
Smith Micro Software "buy," estimates raised

Thursday, October 05, 2006 3:33:07 AM ET
Lazard Capital Markets

NEW YORK, October 5 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on Smith Micro Software Inc (ticker: SMSI), while raising their estimates for the company.
The target price is set to $24.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company's line-up includes Nokia's 63215i and Motorola's KRZR. Smith Micro Systems' Music Essential Kit revenues continue to be driven by bundling, promotions and increased level of VCAST music-enabled phones, the analysts say. The EPS estimate for 3Q has been raised from $0.15 to $0.16.

[la-onda]

steady climbing to the analyst target 

regards
Oliver

[setravis]

Oliver, Outstanding steady work since you beamed in on this
one with you post on September 06,2006
Applaud.....

[la-onda]

Smith Micro Software "outperform"

Tuesday, October 10, 2006 8:00:33 AM ET
Miller Johnson Steichen Kin.

NEW YORK, October 10 (newratings.com) - Analyst Chad Bennett of Miller Johnson Steichen Kinnard maintains his "outperform" rating on Smith Micro Software Inc (ticker: SMSI). The target price is set to $17.50.

In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company is expected to report robust results for the previous quarter due to the impressive demand for its Music Essential Kits (MEK). Smith Micro Software is poised to secure two carrier customers for its QuickLink Music by the end of the year, the analyst says. The company's $100 million shelf filing is aimed at undertaking a large acquisition, Miller Johnson Steichen Kinnard adds.