BFLY

[David Randolph]

BFLY came down to touch the 50 days moving average as you can see on the chart below. I wonder if it will rally from this important technical support, and I'm feeling a bit of pain for not having sold when those weaker than expected December sales came out.

Anyway, my hands on BFLY are as strong as they can be. Like George Soros funds, I consider BFLY a long term investment. The minute I sell it, it may rally for a double.

I see sales rising year after year, through what I expect to be a very profitable sales channel. Amazon was a losing money proposition too, remember that?

I'll continue holding BFLY.

[nutsterrt]

You're in good shape my friend    The day is looking up for Bluefly...finally 

[Se7en]

Yep, good day for BFLY, back above the 9MA on good volume!
I just saw 127000 shares at the bid 1.21$! 

[Terliso]

BFLY has touched & bouncing from 50sma & trendline

[David Randolph]

Yes, nice bounce from the 50 days SMA support

I must say that even I was surprised to see the stock rally, despite loving it so much. It even closed back above the $1.20 previous support, now resistance level. Let's see if it can hold above that level.

There weren't any news out ... let's check our business again: www.bluefly.com.

I'm expecting the new billing methods to be implemented in 2007 to drive up sales even more than 30%, since in 2006 they sold just 3% internationally, which doesn't make any sense to me. It should be about 50/50 between the US and the rest of the world.

I'll keep holding BFLY.

[nutsterrt]

Looking good again today. Currently up 5.8% to 1.28...

[David Randolph]

Looking good again today. Currently up 5.8% to 1.28...

Yep, it closed at $1.25. I don't know if it will be able to sustain or rise from current levels, but as you know I see it rising 30% a year for the next 10 years, on a sustainable basis, so I'll keep holding BFLY.

Let me check my business today: www.bluefly.com.

Selling aggressively as usual. Nice.

[David Randolph]

BFLY has a strong balance sheet. Working capital is $36 M, current ratio is 3.57.

Cash in the bank is $17 M and there's no long term debt. Also no convertible debentures, not anymore.

Revenue growth is strong, at 30% a year for 6 years now. The only problem is the company isn't profitable yet. But it could be, if they didn't invest so much in future growth through advertising.

I believe management is doing the right thing, even though results aren't immediate.

I'll keep holding BFLY, the Amazon of fashion goods.

[David Randolph]

Of the 129,248,990 shares outstanding, 113,409,161 are held by 17 institutions that are strong hands. So, the public float is just 12.26% of the number of outstanding of BFLY.

This is good and bad. It reduces risk but it can also reduce potential, because probably no new institutional investor will be willing to push the price upwards.

Peter Lynch says on his book, "One up on Wall Street" that one should look for small and undiscovered companies, with not a lot of institutional ownership.

Anyway, the way I see it, the fundamental value always prevails, and I expect that to rise a lot in the future for BFLY, as you can acknowledge from reading this thread.

I'll keep holding BFLY as it keeps moving up and down around the $1.20 level.

[Se7en]

David, what's the importance of this 8-k, anything of interest? Tia!

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070125/bfly8-k.html

[David Randolph]

David, what's the importance of this 8-k, anything of interest? Tia!

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070125/bfly8-k.html

Nothing special, they're exchanging a few convertible warrants that were still outstanding for restricted common shares.

BFLY continues to play around the once significant $1.20 technical level. Let's check our business today: www.bluefly.com

I'll keep holding BFLY the way George Soros does (of course, I wouldn't mind owning his 50.19 million shares )

[David Randolph]

Nothing new on BFLY today, back above $1.20. Let's check the store front today ... www.bluefly.com ... hmmm, it looks like they're changing something on the website just now, since all I see is a blank picture. Probably when you read this update everything will be allright.

I'll continue holding BFLY.

[Terliso]

Breaking out, David!

[David Randolph]

Breaking out, David!

Yes Terliso, this is great

There was an SEC filing yesterday that explains the interest and volume on BFLY. It said the following:

«On January 27,  2007,  Alan Kane  resigned as a member of the Board of Directors (the "Board"), the Audit Committee and the Nominating Committee of Bluefly, Inc. (the  "Company").  Mr.  Kane also  served as the  non-executive  Chairman of the Board. Mr Kane served as a Board member since August 2002 and became Chairman in August 2004.  Mr Kane  advised the Company that he was  resigning as a result of his  appointment  to the  American  Eagle  Outfitters  (NASDAQ:  AEOS)  Board of Directors on January 25, 2007.

The Company will name a new Chairman at its regularly scheduled Board meeting on February 23, 2007.»

This is the market's recognition that BFLY's management is doing a good job, because Alan Kane is leaving for a much larger company, AEOS which is a $7.22 B market cap.

Investors always had doubts about management's skills, because they have been selling more and more but still were unable to show a profit. So this was kind of a relief rally. Let's see if the technical breakout brings in more and more buyers.

I don't think BFLY is undervalued, but it is a business that I love (www.bluefly.com) and want to hold for years to come.

[David Randolph]

Blue Sale at www.bluefly.com ends today at 6:30 AM ET, that's in about two and a half hours. Then they'll probably change the front window.

The stock fell back 2.34% yesterday, on low volume. It looks like a retest to a broken short term descending trendline, and the bullish trend will resume next.

We'll see, but you know, I won't sell this business whatever happens to the share price.