HAUP

[rayongthai]

I apologize for sounding a bit over-excited about HAUP.

I've owned this stock for over a year and I currently own several of its products. Some of my friends in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Thailand really enjoy HAUP products as well...i understand that there are waiting lists for some of those products. HAUP has recently stepped up its efforts to gain market share in the lucrative and growing Asia region. The recent deals with Replay TV,   and other OEMs in the region will go a long way to fulfill that goal. Having one of its R&D branches in Taipei  is critical in understanding the likes and dislikes of the people in the region. If you've ever been ar a mall in Singapore and Bangkok you will understand the apetite this people have for having the latest technological guizmo no matter how much it costs.

Happy holidays to all

[kpunarc]

Great info kpunarc Smiley Can you tell me a bit more about ATI, I'm sure it isn't a stock symbol, is it the full name of a company? Is it publicly traded? Thanks !

Yea, apparently ATI Technologies got bought out by "AMD" (Advanced Micro Devices) which i'm sure you know is the biggest competitor of Intel.  ATI symbol is ATY.TO and is publicly traded on some Canadian exchange. AMD is definitely coming up in the works. I do know this that most 'computer nerds' (like myself) tend to prefer AMD over Intel because of its efficiency, speed and reliability over Intel. Intel is only able to stay as THE leader because of its significant deals with all the computer manufacturers (Dell, Gateway, HP..etc.). Very similar to how Microsoft has its edge with its 'Windows' OS even though it's reliability is not as high caliber as the Linux OS. (I'm sure Ramsburg knows more details as well about this stuff since he's the web genius behind 3SOF).  I hope this answers your question. I definitely hope to contribute more as time goes by. baby steps. =p I really appreciate you and Thanks for your response!

[Melf Elf]

I apologize for sounding a bit over-excited about HAUP.

If you just were over-excited about HAUP, we all could understand that, but that isn't the case.

You've been hyping, spamming and dealing in duplicity under countless screen names.

When you were posting under the name monzoni007 and also the name Hauppycamper, I banned Hauppycamper and gave you a warning to post under ONE screen name only.

You then posted for one day in the HAUP folder as Pornito6969.

tHEN, December 4, you showed up as rayongthai in the HAUP folder, sounding the innocent newbie, wondering where HAUP was going long-term:

This one sounds great. But am too late for this party?

I don't know T/A since I am a newbie. Can someone predict where this one could go long term?  Thank you

Then you very quickly created the "sense of urgency," as every good con artist does:

i GUESS I HAVE TO GO FOR THE ASK HERE. NO ONE SEEMS TO SELL AND THE BUY PRESSURE GETS STRONGER BY THE MINUTE

Classic "Hurry up and pay any price" to get into HAUP, you wanted to own it so badly.

Now you tell us:

I've owned this stock for over a year

Same old tricks as Wiseman, and all of your other incarnations. 

I don't understand what your game is, but you're definitely scamming us with all of these roles that you're playing in illiquid stocks (also PNS and NYER).

As I said in the HAUP folder on The Stock Picking Board, your posts aren't without merit as far as the fundamentals "appear," but looking at the chart, and at how HAUP has been pumped and summarily dumped on SIX occasions over the past six years since it crashed from $50 to 1.25 in early 2001, and reading your intraday posts, hyping the stock, I'm mighty suspicious about this current "pump" phase in the stock.

As you pointed out, Cramer mentioned the 70% run-up in HAUP in December, 2005 (it then fell 50%), so this isn't an "undiscovered" stock, and it certainly isn't undiscovered by the momo boys, given all of the pumping and dumping in it over the past six years.

David and Michael both have looked at the fundamentals, which counts for a lot with me because they both are very good and dedicated to their work, but my concern is that there's something else going on with this stock, given the very clear history in the chart below, of pumping and dumping.

As I said before, yes, this stock has big rallies, but most or all of the gains have been given back on EVERY occasion.

This is a very illiquid stock.  In the two days prior to earnings, it traded only 35,700 shares and 28,300 shares, respectively, so everyone please be aware that the price easily can be manipulated, and that it can be difficult to get out of it.

The current picture on the fundamental front could be the "real deal," and this stock could be a huge winner.  I have absolutely no idea, so please don't mistake my comments as being negative on HAUP.  I'm not at all negative on the company itself.

My concern is for the 3SOF community ONLY.  Several members were hurt last year in Wiseman "pump and dump stocks" that sounded very, very good, fundamentally.  Wiseman pumped them into earnings, then the stocks got trashed after the earnings pump.

On one occasion, Wiseman (or one of his incarnations) later posted that he sold the stock prior to the crash, but all the while, he kept pumping it.

This might be a pump and dump in which case I am the garbage can because I have just put a very generous offer in the market.

I certainly hope that isn't the case, Michael.  Thank you for you work on HAUP.

One of the lessons I have learned on 3SOF is that your credibility is of paramount importance. On most boards you can just post bullish messages every 2 minutes under different alias. That doesn't work here. We all know each other (this might sound a bit stupid as we now have more than 8000 members but stay around and you will know what I mean)!

Yes, I know what you mean.  We "have each other's backs," as Snowy says.  We don't scam each other, which is how I have felt about this situation.

Good luck, everyone.  I hope that this stock is as good as it sounds, and that it's a winner for all of you playing it.

[boatguy]

Good one Melf- thanks for watching out!!

Glad to see you are a moderator on the site, not in this one( HAUP) but I try to make it a point to read all your comments and analysis.

I hope your new duties don't impact your great posts!

[rayongthai]

I guess everytime Melf Elf sells a stock he DUMPS and everytime he buys he PUMPS. LOL

His HAUP chart is simply ridiculous. I can't believe that a seemingly intelligent person would spend hours drawing cute little pump and dump arrows on a chart everytime the stock goes up or down simply because he does not like a poster or a stock. Actually, his generalizations are in my opinion irresponsible because it undermines the DD that some people do on a stock like HAUP before they invest in it. It also downplays the hard work on hundreds of HAUP employees worldwide working hard to build a first class organization with a second to none technology.

Happy Holidays Elf

[basonista]

I guess everytime Melf Elf sells a stock he DUMPS and everytime he buys he PUMPS. LOL

His HAUP chart is simply ridiculous. I can't believe that a seemingly intelligent person would spend hours drawing cute little pump and dump arrows on a chart everytime the stock goes up or down simply because he does not like a poster or a stock. Actually, his generalizations are in my opinion irresponsible because it undermines the DD that some people do on a stock like HAUP before they invest in it. It also downplays the hard work on hundreds of HAUP employees worldwide working hard to build a first class organization with a second to none technology.

Happy Holidays Elf

I'm sorry ray, but I have to smite you for your comments.  No, wait.  I'm not sorry.  You have been a member here, under this name, for less than a month and Melf has been here almost since the first day 3sof has existed.  His analysis are always indepth and without bias and are of a quality higher than 99% of the posts on these boards.  You should be ashamed of yourself attacking him that way when he is right (already applauded).  Look at the chart and see for yourself that each of the last 2 years, HAUP has gone up right before Christmas and immediately fallen down close to previous lows.  And so far, it is following the same pattern.  This may not be a true pump and dump but let history be your guide and stop polluting these boards with your baseless accusations and trash.

For all of our sakes, I hope HAUP isn't going to crash again but thanks to Melf, I'll be more attentive to that possibility.  As which you should if you are here to be a true T2T and have an open mind.  Man, it really infuriates me to see crap posts like that, ray that don't do anything to help our cause but to hinder it. 

If you dissagree with his analysis then say that and say why with your own DD.  Just don't sit there and make it a personal attack which helps no one.  You are a paying member here so be a contributer not a degrader.

[oicpecnoc]

Actually Ray, all you need to do is say you don't post under multiple names.  Then, there is only the matter of whether or not it can be proven.  I assume it can be or Melf wouldn't be ignorant enough to make the accusation.  My guess is you won't deny it knowing that.  Nice attempt at damage control though, diverting the subject away from the point being made.

I'd like people to buy my picks, hopefully causing them to go up, but it really isn't worth deceiving people to do it.  You die with more money, but less character.  Good luck with that strategy because any success you have with it will be be paid back to you in spades.  You really do reap what you sow.

Save the "I really believe in Haup" message, because oddly enough I believe thats likely true.  No need to convince me of that.  If you haven't posted uder the names you are accused of, taking on a different identity in name and tenor, then I apologize in advance.

[ygtrdr]

Excellent post Melf Elf!

[mbaugh]

Excellent post Melf Elf, that's what makes 3stocksonfire the best trader website!  Unlike the yahoo message board which is full of nutcases, this site consists of people who truly care and look after each other!  I have been with this site since the begining, but rarely post since i poor time managment (I'm too busy reading everyone's posts! )

Anyways, in regards to HAUP, I do believe this is a good play since I believe their technology is finally begining to pay off.  Yes it ran up last year around the same time and fell afterwards, but that's because people bought before earnings thinking it was going to be good and instead they posted a loss and the stock fell.  here's a comment from the Dec. 23, 2005 Street.com article regarding HAUP's 2005 earnings:

December 23, 2005
"Shares of Hauppage Digital (HAUP:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) slid after the company said it swung to a fourth-quarter loss on a 7% year-over-year decline in revenue. The maker of television parts lost $864,371, or 9 cents a share, in the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with earnings of $119,261, or 1 cent a share, a year ago. Sales were $15.4 million in the latest quarter compared with $16.5 million a year ago. The company said its gross margin fell from 25.6% to 21.7% in the latest quarter, primarily reflecting higher sales of lower margin OEM products. Hauppage shares fell 84 cents, or 13%, to $5.56. "


This year, however, they recorded a profit even after stock expenses.  I believe the run is different this year and will continue since TV on PC is now becoming very popular.  I honest believe that one day more people will watch more TV programs from their computer since the computer is becoming a dominant factor in everyone's life.

Good Luck and Happy Holidays everyone!  With David back, I believe 2007 will be a great year for the 3stocksonfire team.

[Terliso]

TV on PC is now becoming very popular.  I honest believe that one day more people will watch more TV programs from their computer since the computer is becoming a dominant factor in everyone's life.

I am one of them....I'm watching TV on my PC & recording TV shows, sports in my Terabyte hard drive for over a year now.... I'm using the hardware HAUP product as the encoder & a software called Beyond TV... check it out for yourself

http://store.snapstream.com/btv-analog.html

[jorgegr]

rayongthai:

Your comments are way out of line. The chart speaks for itself but on top
of that you were exposed by a respectable member and all you have to do
is quit acting as you having been doing.

I've been around also for more than a year now and we all know who is who

Happy Xmas to everybody and kind regards to Melf.

[godofstock]

I am a long term investor and I have pay attention to your pick recently.  The stocks you pick are always low outstanding shares which will increase the price once volume build up.  And also you pick low market cap company which I have to say is RISKY to newbie investors. 

So if I was to stick around with your pick, I would daytrade because it too risky to hold long term while there is nothing valuable I can get for holding on.

I have not try one of their products so I don't know how good is it.  I surely like logitech products.  (LOGI)

this I dont know because I have never use it.  Maybe I will go down to best buy and buy one of their MediaMPV and try it out.  If its good, then I will buy the stock.  If it suck dick, I will return it and won't invest.  Hows that sound. 

[fous]

im gonna be honest ive had a couple drinks tonight so im not gonna go into detail about anything cuz i would probably say something i would regret.................... 

But melf....... as always..... Applauds on your post. you clearly stated the truth from a TA point of view on this stock. Every time it has rallied it moved up 100% or more and quickly drops back to where it started from. So even though dave and mike hold a fundamental bullish opinion, which i fully respect, I even more so i respect the movement of a chart and history tends to repeat itself so if it were me i would be cautious if this stock has a technical breakdown again. And as mike said, we all know each other here and were all friends. We state our opinions and of course  there is a little bias in all of us. But we say what we think not to try and convince somebody to do otherwise, but to make a truthful point and possibly help one another out.

To ray and godofstock,
you guys are both new here and this is a great message board and i hope that you treat the people here with the respect that they deserve for the amount of time and effort and knowledge they provide. Im not gonna smite either of you because theres just too much negative around this subject in the first place. Instead im going to give each of you an applaud and encourage you guys to get to know the neighborhood here and fit in so we can all benefit from our experience here. To godofstock if your wondering why i mentioned you. I didn't think you post was all that bad until i read

If it suck dick, I will return it and won't invest.  Hows that sound. 

I mean hey if we knew you a little better than sure, it might be a "little" humerous. But for posting 8 times and saying something like that it just seems a little immature.

Anyways i guess i went into a little more detail than i thought. But i wish you guys and everyone else here the best as we head on into 07. Lets hope for a great year. 06 was pretty rough for a while there...............

Merry Xmas! or i guess i should say Happy holidays lol, im not even religious 

[David Randolph]

This thread was going a bit out of hand because rayongthai and godofstock are new to the 3 Stocks on Fire Premium service so they didn't know this message board was different.

This particular board exists for me to initiate the threads that justify the recommendations of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio and the following daily updates. Premium Members can post questions or comments and I'll address them with great joy.

But of course this has always been, and will always continue to be, made with great mutual respect.

rayongthai and godofstock weren't paying subscribers yet, they were just making a 14 days free trial. But the free trial works both ways. People experience and judge the service but I also judge if they can be Premium subscribers. In this case the 3 SOF team decided it would be better to take these two out of the Premium Service, even though their free trial had some more days to run.

I know Melf Elf's comments on rayongthai are the truth, but I think he could be recovered (the man looks like he has two personalities ). Perhaps a few weeks later I'll give him another chance (if he chooses to pay for the service, of course).

I'll do the daily update for HAUP on the following post, we don't want to mix these issues with the analysis.

[David Randolph]

It's nice to have Michael on board:

That is why I honestly was surprised when I saw the real value in HAUP. As some of you know I were 95% in cash up to this point. Not anymore! I see the same potential in Hauppauge that I saw in XING, GIGM and KOMG. A company with a very healthy balance sheet, strong growth, increasing earnings and close to ridiculous valuation.  But these companies have one more thing in common. They are all benefiting from the new trend of sharing experiences online.

Whereas the last couple of years have been about sharing experiences via text messaging and voice the coming years will be devoted to pictures and Video.

Interesting note: SKNN - I showed my wife who is Japanese the Skins website
http://www.skinsfootwear.com/ and she really thought it was a great concept and long term investment.

She seems to know style trends well, and she is also big on Coach, Burberry, PacSun, and American Eagle Outfitters.  So we will see if SKNN has some potential. To bad I can't dress...all I need is shorts to play Handball. LOL

Thanks for your wife's view on SKNN, HANDBALLJIM But I would be somewhat cautious with that stock, you know not always a great concept or idea is a great stock to buy. Particularly I see dilution coming on SKNN (their balance sheet tells me so). You can read my full take on SKNN here: SKNN analysis (I can be wrong, good luck)

Now I would like to address some of Melf Elf's concerns about HAUP being a recurrent pump and dump story.



Of course, phase 1 was due to the technology speculative bubble of late 1999 and early 2000. Phase 2 was due to the explosion of that bubble.



Phase 3 can be explained by the company's revenue increases in Q4 2003 and Q1 2004. Q4 2003 was the best quarter in the company's history until that date, with $0.11 EPS, so people thought the business model was starting to get traction. But no, revenues declined again and EPS went from $0.11 in a quarter to an average of $0.015 the following quarters. Shares went down on phase 4 (but never below the previous lows).

Phase 5 was again due to a revenue and profit recovery, this time to $0.13 EPS on Q4 2004. Unfortunately revenues went down again and the company reported a loss of ($0.09) per share in Q3 2005 (that explains phase 6).

Phase 7 was mostly due to news of new products. It was made with just a few strong up days. Technically the rise wasn't sustainable. The stock went down on phase 8, but again, to a higher low when compared to phase 6.

Now we're on phase 9, and this time the rise looks much more sustainable from a technical point of view.

Fundamentals also look more promising than the last time the stock was around current levels. One thing is certain: if this is a pump and dump stock it's not the company's fault, because there wasn't any dilution since 1997. That means, the company didn't have any interest in pumping their shares.

kpunarc, mbaugh and Terliso's comments tell me HAUP's products have quality. I believe we're in a turning point for this industry of peripherals that enable TV on PC's and other mobile equipments. Fundamentals will probably continue to improve and the stock will follow.

Merry Christmas