SLP

[David Randolph]

I made a video analysis on SLP, here it is:

SLP is quite an interesting company with an healthy balance sheet, but it seems overvalued to me, trading at 13 times 2007 expected revenue and 75 times 2007 EPS.

It was a great buy at $5 - $7, but I believe it will have a serious correction now. Can be wrong though.

[la-onda]

Simulations Plus Director Sells Shares
Tuesday April 17, 2:20 pm ET
Simulations Plus Director Sells 75,400 Shares

NEW YORK (AP) -- A director and secretary-treasurer of drug development software maker Simulations Plus sold 75,400 shares of common stock, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. In three Form 4s filed with the SEC Monday, Virginia E. Woltosz reported she sold the shares between Thursday and Sunday for $15.10 to $15.64 apiece.
Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.
Simulations Plus is based in Lancaster, Calif.

she sold 75400 shares and she is still owning 3.9 million shares 
overreaction in my opinion 

[la-onda]

nice recovery

Simulations Plus Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2007 Earnings Conference Call
Monday April 23, 3:09 pm ET
Conference Call to be on Wednesday, April 25, at 4:15 PM EDT

LANCASTER, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Simulations Plus, Inc. (AMEX:SLP - News), a leading provider of ADMET absorption simulation and structure-to-property prediction software for pharmaceutical discovery and development, will hold a conference call to discuss its second quarter fiscal year 2007 (ended February 28, 2007) results on Wednesday, April 25, at 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time (1:15 p.m. Pacific Time).

Shareholders and interested parties may join the conference call by dialing toll-free (800) 867-4593, and referencing either 'Simulations Plus Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2007 Results' or confirmation code 5588914. The conference call may also be accessed from outside the United States by dialing (785) 830-7984. Please dial-in five to ten minutes prior to the scheduled start time. Playback should be available on our web site within 72 hours.

[la-onda]

just fyi another insider selling:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1023459.htm

[la-onda]

updated SEC file !!

link:
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001222527%2D07%2D000012%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2007%5C04%5C24%5C&CoName=SIMULATIONS+PLUS+INC&FormType=4%2FA&RcvdDate=4%2F24%2F2007&pdf=

[la-onda]

all the answers regarding the insider sales:

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000101968707001191/simulations_8k-ex9\
901.htm

cheers
Oliver

[la-onda]

please check updated SLP TaglichBrothers report:

http://www.taglichbrothers.com/equityuniverse/companies/simplus/simplus-04262007.pdf

Key Investment Considerations:

We are downgrading our rating from Speculative Buy to Neutral on Simulations Plus, Inc. (AMEX: SLP), pending updated Management guidance. This is expected to occur upon SLP's third quarter 2007 earnings release during early July 2007. Between January 3, 2007 and April 25, 2007, in excess of three times the float or 11.170 million shares have traded. The heavy volume coincided with upward share price momentum. During the same time period (January 3, 2007 and April 25, 2007), SLP share price was as low as $5.05 and as high as $16.48. We believe price consolidation is likely over the next quarter or so. On April 10, 2007, the Company announced that second quarter fiscal 2007 net sales increased by 71% to $2.534 million versus $1.482 million in the same period last year. Net income increased to $0.668 million or $0.07 per diluted share versus $0.248 million or $0.03 per diluted share in the second quarter of fiscal 2006. Based on results for the first half of fiscal 2007, we are adjusting our net sales and net income forecasts to $8.505 million and $1.844 million or $0.21 per diluted share, respectively. Our prior forecasts called for net sales and net income of $7.846 million and $1.571 million or $0.18 per diluted share, respectively.
We are adjusting our estimates for fiscal 2008. Given current licensing trends, renewals, and potential for new customers, our revised net sales and net income forecasts are $10.545 million and $2.750 million or $0.30 per diluted share. Our prior forecasts called for net sales and net income of $9.695 million and $2.405 million or $0.28 per diluted share.

[la-onda]

quotation:
Key Investment Considerations:
We are downgrading our rating from Speculative Buy to Neutral on Simulations Plus, Inc. (AMEX: SLP), pending updated Management guidance. This is expected to occur upon SLP's third quarter 2007 earnings release during early July 2007. Between January 3, 2007 and April 25, 2007, in excess of three times the float or 11.170 million shares have traded. The heavy volume coincided with upward share price momentum. During the same time period
(January 3, 2007 and April 25, 2007), SLP share price was as low as $5.05 and as high as $16.48. We believe price consolidation is likely over the next quarter or so.
On April 10, 2007, the Company announced that second quarter fiscal 2007 net sales increased by 71% to $2.534 million versus $1.482 million in the same period last year. Net income increased to $0.668 million or $0.07 per diluted share versus $0.248 million or $0.03 per diluted share in the second quarter of fiscal 2006. Based on results for the first half of fiscal 2007, we are adjusting our net sales and net income forecasts to $8.505 million and $1.844 million or $0.21 per diluted share, respectively. Our prior forecasts called for net
sales and net income of $7.846 million and $1.571 million or $0.18 per diluted share, respectively.
We are adjusting our estimates for fiscal 2008. Given current licensing trends, renewals, and potential for new customers, our revised net sales and net income forecasts are $10.545 million and $2.750 million or $0.30 per diluted share. Our prior forecasts called for net sales and net income of $9.695 million and $2.405 million or $0.28 per diluted share.

please check attached report!
nice entry point imho

[la-onda]

nice rebound 

[la-onda]

updated chart, Q3 will be communicated around end of May (will be significant higher!)

[la-onda]

fyi:
SLP Has Been Removed From Naked Short List Today   (Not rated)       30-May-07 03:07 am   
Simulations Plus Inc (AMEX: SLP) develops and produces software for use in pharmaceutical research and education, and provides contract research services to the pharmaceutical industry. Its software products include ADMET Predictor that enables pharmaceutical researchers to estimate absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity properties of new chemical entities from their molecular structure; ADMET Modeler, which is used to generate the predictive models used in ADMET Predictor; ClassPharmer, an intuitive software for screening data analysis, hit-to-lead development, lead optimization, and predictive toxicology; DDDPlus, a software for formulation scientists that simulates the in vitro disintegration and dissolution of dosage forms in laboratory experiments; and GastroPlus, a software program that simulates the dissolution and absorption of a drug in the human gastrointestinal tract. The company also provides contract research services to the pharmaceutical industry in the area of gastrointestinal absorption, pharmacokinetics, structure-property model building, and related technologies. In addition, it offers interactive, educational software programs that simulate science experiments conducted in middle school, high school, and junior college science classes. Further, the company, through its subsidiary, Words+, Inc., produces computer software, augmentative communication devices, and computer access products for disabled persons, as well as offers Abbreviate!, a software product for the commercial market. The company markets its augmentative and alternative communication products to speech pathologists, occupational therapists, rehabilitation engineers, special education teachers, and disabled persons through sales representatives, independent dealers, and resellers. Simulations Plus operates primarily in North and South Americas, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Lancaster, California. With 7.72 million shares outstanding and 58,700 shares declared short as of April 2007, there is no longer a failure to deliver in shares of SLP.

chart:

[la-onda]

everybody is waiting for Q3 results (should be significantly better)

...In fiscal 2007, year-over-year revenue is expected to increase by at least $1.0 million, due to an increase in the Company's customer base. During the first quarter earnings press release, the Company's CFO stated that it appears at this time (half way through the fiscal second quarter of 2007) that a year-over-year increase of $1.0 million will be achieved before the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2007
.....
Projections
Based on updated public guidance (February 26, 2007) from Management for fiscal 2007 and current licensing trends and renewals, we are adjusting our net sales forecast for fiscal 2007 to $7.846 million versus our prior estimate of $7.241 million. Our estimate incorporates the continued renewal of software licenses (i.e., F. Hoffmann-LaRoche renewal) and expansion of existing customers through new product offerings, as well as enhancements to existing products, and the hiring of additional professionals in its Life Sciences department. We anticipate net sales growth for simulations software products in fiscal 2007 of approximately 61.4% to $5.142 million. Our net sales expectation for the Words+ subsidiary for fiscal 2007 is $2.704 million, which is approximately a 1.3% increase versus fiscal 2006.
We are adjusting our net sales forecast for net sales forecast to $9.695 million versus our prior estimate of $8.950 million. Our revised forecast would be a 23.6% increase versus our fiscal 2007 forecast. Our estimate is based on current licensing trends, renewals, and potential for new customers, as well as expansion of licenses with existing customers for additional sites and/or new products. We anticipate net sales growth for simulations software products in fiscal 2008 of approximately 33.3% to $6.856 million. Our net sales expectation for the Words+ subsidiary for fiscal 2007 is $2.839 million, which is approximately a 5.0% increase versus fiscal 2006...

http://www.taglichbrothers.com/equityuniverse/companies/simplus/simplus-03262007.pdf

[la-onda]

oversold imho
Q3 results should be out soon

[la-onda]

yahoo MB quotation:
First of all there is no requirement for a company to provide any discussion associated with a Q release. The only legal requirement is that they file the financial results with the SEC by the required date. I think that's no later than 45 days after the end of the financial reporting period. If the end date falls on a week end or holiday the requirement is the next business day.

A form 8k is not required. Form 8k's are filed when there is relevant information that needs to be made available to stock holders. This is the formal way to communicate that a material event has or is expected to take place. The reason you see 8k's associated with earnings is because companies usually announce their earnings via a press release. Press releases are not considered formal announcements so an 8k is filled with reference to the press release. Press releases are not required so if there is no press release than the 8k is not required either. In other words, the 10Q which is the financial paperwork describing the results is the only requirement. Walt is a nice guy so he usually gives us a press release so that we have stuff in plain English on how things are going.

On guidance. At the last conference call Walt said that he is EXPECTING to provide revised guidance AFTER the end of the Q ending in May.

Two very meaningful points here... EXPECTING... This means that he hopes and plans to do so. He did not provide a guaranteed statement saying that it is for certain that he would.

Second: He said that this EXPECTATION should be AFTER the end of the Q3 ( At the end of May ). So... He did not say he would provide guidance at the end of May... He said he EXPECTS to provide guidance AFTER the end of May. That should be interpreted as follows: Maybe sometime after the Q is over.

Here is the text that he read during the CC:
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000101968707001191/slide6.jpg

Now the good part... It will be a great Q with a fantastic future. No one else is doing what they are doing. The drug industry realizes that they have to quit using the brute force method for inventing new drug molecules and SLP has the stuff that will put them light years ahead. If you are in the drug discovery business and you find out that the FDA has purchased SLP software what brand software are you going to go out and buy??? It's gonna be OK... Hold your shares.

[la-onda]

SLP: Q3 EPS 9c vs 5c Beats 7c Est
Monday , July 02, 2007 14:58ET

QUARTER RESULTS
Simulations Plus Inc (SLP) reported Q3 results ended May 2007. Q3 Revenues were $2.63M; +46.93% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +14.85%. Q3 EPS was 9c; +80.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +28.57%.

Q3 RESULTS      Reported      Year-Ago     Y/Y Chg      Estimate    SURPRISE
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------
Revenues:         $2.63M        $1.79M     +46.93%        $2.29M     +14.85%
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------
EPS:                  9c            5c     +80.00%            7c     +28.57%