WCG

[David Randolph]

I'm recommending buying WCG for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of capital as always.

Initially I made this 3 minute video on elliemae's request (she works in a similar company as WCG, so she knows the sector very well):

WCG 3 minute view:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=224744204231640346&hl=en

And now I made a bit more in depth analysis of WCG:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1271359871314072297&hl=en

I think the following can be huge, going forward:

«Medicare Private Fee-For-Service. We have received approval from CMS to offer private fee-for-service ("PFFS") plans to Medicare beneficiaries in 700 counties in 38 states and Washington, D.C. beginning in 2007. PFFS plans are open-access plans that allow members to be seen by any Medicare-eligible physician or facility that participates in the program. In connection with this initiative, we have developed a national distribution network of licensed insurance agents to educate potential members on our open-access PFFS plans. Enrollment for all 2007 PFFS plans will begin November 15, 2006.»

Trading Plan:

Buy 6.66% of capital in WCG shares

[elliemae]

David,

Thank you for your thorough analysis on WCG.  I have been a believer in WCG since I bought it back in 2005.  If you can block out the market noise, WCG will be a huge winner in the future.  If the govt. cuts medicaid and medicare in the future, WCG still wins, because the govt. utilizes companies like WCG to help cut/control costs.  If memory serves me correctly, WCG has only been utilized in 8 states to date and has huge growth potential.   
Thanks Again, Ellen

[David Randolph]

WCG has been a great holding for your elliemae I guess it will be good for me too when I have the chance to buy it.

I'm sorry, but being a foreigner I wasn't aware that today is a national holiday in the USA, in memory of Martin Luther King Jr.

I guess I'll go to the jacuzzi, sauna and take a walk ... I really wasn't expecting some time off now, great

[Dracull]

HEHEHEHE, Me too David, I was so eager to get into WCG that I didn't noticed that today is bank holiday at USA....I got so hurried with my streamer frozen that I tough that is was my job's firewall doing some of his tricks instead of even thinking that it was holiday   

[nutsterrt]

HEHEHEHE, Me too David, I was so eager to get into WCG that I didn't noticed that today is bank holiday at USA....I got so hurried with my streamer frozen that I tough that is was my job's firewall doing some of his tricks instead of even thinking that it was holiday   

Heh, neither of you should feel bad. Every day in January thus far seems to be a holiday. In fact, of the 11 potential sessions we have had to date, three of them have been closed. One might say the market is closed 27% of the time!

[guitarman]

This is just great!
I remember reading a "buy my research report" on something like this.
They were touting a health care company that was buying up Federally Funded Psychiatric beds (worth over $100K/yr each). Huge revenue growth was projected.
I forget the exact numbers and can't find the article. Doing my web search, I thought it was MGLN? (I'll keep looking).

Elliemae
Could it be WCG instead that is acquiring these Psychiatric Beds?

Thanks and Best
GMan

[elliemae]

It is a holiday today, however, I am working and will try to update some info. on WCG later tonight when I have time.  Have a great day!

[Leaira]

For now, I think I'm gonna wait till it retraces to the 5EMA, like about $73.  The bollinger band squeeze play is over cuz it already made a red candle and failed to make a new high on Friday.  There's plenty of time till earnings (Feb. 12), so I would buy the Feb 70 call options after a 5 or 10EMA retracement and bounce.

Usually, a stock like this may be a good LEAPS or stock-split candidate, too, but the open interest in the leaps is not high enough, and there aren't many strike prices far out of the money.

Leaira

[elliemae]

Elliemae
Could it be WCG instead that is acquiring these Psychiatric Beds?

Not to my knowledge

For now, I think I'm gonna wait till it retraces to the 5EMA, like about $73.  The bollinger band squeeze play is over cuz it already made a red candle and failed to make a new high on Friday.  There's plenty of time till earnings (Feb. 12), so I would buy the Feb 70 call options after a 5 or 10EMA retracement and bounce.

Leaira is probably right, this stock has pulled back 3-10% on profit taking, etc.. just to resume back up, however, in the long term picture, timing an entry point could be futile.

I first became aware of WCG when my 21 year old son was in his junior year of college and had gone to a job fair in Nov. 2005 and had met a rep. from WCG.  My son was very impressed and told me to investigate the co. for investing (he graduates this spring with a B.B.A. in Actuarial Science and took a job with Property and Casualty instead of Health and Life, like WCG)  Anyways, I researched WCG and took a position in Nov.2005.  Well, I live in Atlanta, Georgia and I am a Physical Therapist that provides services to patients on Medicare, Medicaid, and private ins.  Beginning June of 2006, Georgia Medicaid required CMO's and 3 managed care co. were contracted (Amerigroup, Peachstate, and Wellcare/WCG)  Georgia Medicaid program has been financially strapped in the last 5 years and personally, an hour visit for a P.T. had gone from $107.00 in 2000 to $85.00 an hour in 2005.  Well, every sector of healthcare provided to Medicaid recipients had been cut as well.  In 2005, the state of Georgia had to come up with a plan to control/cut cost for their Medicaid members, and in all reality, no more cuts could be made to providers, for the payout was already at it's minimal amount that would support healthcare providers and still make a profit (in some cases break even for doctors/hospitals)  So Georgia Medicaid has implemented the managed healthcare cos. (which WCG is across the state of Georgia, not just in selected regions like Amerigroup and Peachstate)  This is saving Georgia's Medicaid system millions of dollars per year.  It helps prevent hospital visits and keeps providers accountable for services provided.  Prior to this implementation, Medicaid providers were virtually unsupervised.  If 2 one hour therapy sessions a week were allowed for a child, an unethical provider could provide services to a disabled child for years, as long as they kept a doctors prescription on file every 6 months.  Now with the CMO's in place, each provider has to get authorized for a limit # of visits and then provide documentation to support future visits that are medically necessary .  This is just one area of healthcare given as an example here, but it applies across the board to all Medicaid providers.  Now, If WCG is only in 8 states and has the potential to expand across the country as other states try to curb their healthcare cost, and now put Medicare into the mix (and you know as the baby boomers age Medicare becomes more strained)  I believe WCG will be utilized for Medicare exponentially in the future (because again, you can only cut payment to healthcare providers so much, and then you have to look for new ways to save money)  I know this was long, but I hope I opened some eyes as to the powder keg WCG is becoming.  Take a look at  WLP and I believe the market cap of WCG could be 68 billion in 7-8 years easily

[guitarman]

Volume down a bit today
93% ownde by institutions....
I am assuming this is a good thing.  
Although, I've read it is good to get into a stock before the institutions drive the price up.  Davids analysis really helps to see if there is more upside from here.
Best
GMan

[elliemae]

Volume down a bit today
93% ownde by institutions....
I am assuming this is a good thing.  Cool
Although, I've read it is good to get into a stock before the institutions drive the price up.  Davids analysis really helps to see if there is more upside from here.
Best
GMan

I believe the institutions understand the potential growth of this company versus the average retail investor

[David Randolph]

Unfortunately I'm left with little time to update WCG today. Its chart is so bullish that is scary ... wait a minute, so bullish it is scary? That doesn't make any sense, being bullish is great, the more, the better !

This stock could/should move up to $100 over the short term. It would still be very cheap.

Not much thinking to do here, just buy and hold through the ups and downs, elliemae nailed it right and all you have to do is let the stock reward your investment and patience.

[David Randolph]

Just considering 2007 estimates and not a longer term picture, the revenue estimate for WCG is $4.73 B.

The current market cap is $3.06 B. If the stock trades at a revenue multiple of 1 in 2007, it will then be a $4.73 B market cap company. To achieve that the share price must rise 54% to $116 a share.

Over the short term there might be a pullback because it seems kind of overextended, but a 54% medium term profit is very attractive and I think it justifies not paying much attention to short term developments.

Longer terms the growth rate may continue and WCG looks like a stock to own for the very long term.

[guitarman]

Thanks Leaira
I played your pull back and got in at $73.5.
Applause
Now I'm in margin debt big time! LOL

Maybe MGLN is worth looking at too?

Best
GMan

[elliemae]

WCG always retraces some when healthcare cuts are in the media, however, WCG is not like the UNH's and WLP's that supply individuals bare bones healthcare to self payors that want minimum coverage, WCG has relationships/contracts with State funded and federal programs like Medicaid and Medicare.  WCG is growing!!  Don't listen to the noise, buy low and buy lower if you have to, because this will be a monster company in the long run.