CPNE.OB

HANDBALLJIM · February 27, 2007, 10:02:45 AM

onlinesupplier.com
Avg. Review for onlinesupplier.com:
Traffic Rank for onlinesupplier.com: 9,179

That traffic rank is still great....in the top 10,000 out of over a Billion websites.

jmccar2 · February 27, 2007, 10:53:14 AM

My understanding, though, is that traffic has dropped in February compared to January..Can anyone substantiate?

tokyopua · February 27, 2007, 11:08:32 AM

Quote from: jmccar2 on February 27, 2007, 10:53:14 AM
My understanding, though, is that traffic has dropped in February compared to January..Can anyone substantiate?

It did drop compared to Januaury. But it was up compared to July through October.

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=www.onlinesupplier.com

You need to check the correct timeframes just as in stocks.

Its traffic rank is not all that impressive, I know of a 2 person company that had a 9000 rank at one point, and there are 1 man operations out there with better traffic. What was impressive however was their ability to monetize traffic, as per what we saw in all the models in this thread.

I sold CPNE for a small loss at 2.29. Not because of Alexa data, just that I dont know what to think about this stock anymore, and because it dropped below my carefully constructed trendline. Also the H&S scenario Melf pointed out was something I totally didnt look at (applaud Melf)...

jmccar2 · February 28, 2007, 01:07:36 AM

Thoughts from a newbie:

While the traffic to onlinesupplier looks like it dropped significantly in the latter half of Feb. (which could be due to the somewhat seasonal nature of this market) and the churn rate is probably pretty high and rapid, it looks as though investinginsuccess could be coming online nicely to boost profits. The web traffic seems to have picked up with this latter site and my bet is that the churn rate and frequency with this foreclosure/property acquisition site is lower. The profit margin could be higher as well.

I have confidence in this management group to keep finding lucrative niches and longer lasting customers. I think eventually they will hit their stride with several profitable markets that have staying power.

Baptism by fire: I'm heavily invested in CPNE (at 2.90!) despite my better sense and David's warnings to evenly distribute among all stocks in portfolio (next time I'll listen better

). Needless to say, I've been walking on pins and needles for the last couple days, but I faced my inner demons and my view is that I'm going to stay long. It's not because I have to lock in a loss if I sell or that I don't believe that some of the projected earnings calculations may have extrapolated too much on what may be perhaps a seasonal and ephemeral growth trend, but because I have confidence in this company.

jmccar2 · February 28, 2007, 01:12:32 AM

Now if there's anymore 144's filed I may reconsider this

David Randolph · February 28, 2007, 06:55:40 AM

With CPNE.OB I've learned that strong revenue and profit growth is important, that a fat net profit margin is important, but that's not all.

For the market to attach a high valuation to a stock of this type on a sustainable basis the company also needs a long term sustainable business model, not something based on a greater fool type of thing.

As realcoolhead warned, maybe in this fast information age, consumers get educated must faster and there aren't as many fools around anymore as I thought (perhaps I was defending a mental position given by my position in the market).

Anyway, I recommended this stock at $2.08 on the Fire Portfolio, sold at $3.2, and recommended it for the Main at $2.30, so I'm losing just 3% on this trade. I feel sorry for all that bought higher and have a loss, but you know, the stock market is a risky game, there never are certainties, unfortunately

I'll keep the stock under radar. I'm interested in seeing for how long they can keep www.onlinesupplier.com selling the way it has been selling. I'm also interested in seeing management's ability to create new revenue streams.

I'll try to sell it on a rally towards $2.30 today, I feel there will be one after the open, perhaps a strong one, as the stock touched the 50 days SMA support. But I'll make sure that I'll sell it on the first hour of trading.

buddjas1 · February 28, 2007, 09:27:42 AM

David. You are selling some of your best picks at bargain prices. I know that yesteday's sell-off was bad, but the sell-off had nothing to do with valuation. Most people attribute the sell-off to "rumors" that the Chinese government was going to impose capital gains taxes as a way to minimize "speculation." Turns out that the rumor was false. The markets are poised to recover. There's still time to cancel your sell orders.

raspi · February 28, 2007, 01:39:30 PM

I must agree with budjas.. David has been emphasizing patience and cool head in stocks holding for past 6 moths and than after one day of major decline he decides to close all his positions no matter how much he liked the fundamentals.... If 3SOF members did not sell their positions in CPNE this morning we could have been at $3.. But I still very much enjoy this rebound

nullzero · February 28, 2007, 02:35:09 PM

For David to be this reactive and fearful of the market makes me think something is going to go down... I am out today on all long positions on the market. We are now trading only up +50 dow and +8 on nasd... If this was a true strong rebound we should of seen trading over 150 and a close above +100 but its not looking like thats going to play out.

JKN · February 28, 2007, 03:39:18 PM

Time will tell if David is right...My experience here is that he is quick to make these decisons...right or wrong. As he often says, the market will tell him if he made the right choice.

Me? I sold all my long positions except SYX, WCG, and CPNE. I'm on a hair trigger with them though... I also have a couple of pennies that I've had for awhile. ..small positions. Only reason I didn't sell CPNE was that it bounced early.

After five years of investing, the one thing that I have learned is protection of capital is paramount. You can't go wrong in cash, you won't get rich but you d*** sure won't lose your $$.

berloga · February 28, 2007, 06:21:43 PM

SYX and CPNE were the one's I planned on keeping as well with a stop, but before I knew it, my low sell orders executed... CPNE went while I was upgrading the order! Well, I gave in all my profits between May and August 2006, so no I'd rather stay out until an opportune moment shows up.

jmccar2 · February 28, 2007, 07:51:56 PM

OUCH...52k worth of CPNE sold at 9:31 AM for 41k. Now, in after hours trading, it's worth 46.5k

kslifka · February 28, 2007, 08:44:02 PM

Quote from: jmccar2 on February 28, 2007, 07:51:56 PM
OUCH...52k worth of CPNE sold at 9:31 AM for 41k. Now, in after hours trading, it's worth 46.5k

Well I sold mine this this afternoon....and I'm glad I'm out for now.

CPNE has a lot of overhang above; it probably will not go above the 9ema anytime soon. I also belive the market will have another pretty good plunge soon.

jmccar2 · February 28, 2007, 09:56:19 PM

Thanks for that. I'm glad you watched the market a bit and were able to maximize your exit. As I watched the market seem to stabilize and perform in some cases

, I decided to leave my money in OFI-- I thought a safer bet, but now there seems to be a new rash of insider selling here...It's clear to me that Estes is liquidating his entire stock and the more I look, the safer (even) CPNE looks to me now. I am getting a crash course in the value of diversification

Se7en · March 01, 2007, 05:24:07 PM

Form 10KSB for COMMERCE PLANET

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070301/cpne.ob10ksb.html

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CPNE.OB