CPNE.OB

[webby67]

tokyopua
As I understand it, the full-fledged earnings are NOT being released tomorrow. The company is presenting at an Institutional Investor Conference, which will be webcast as David posted the link, and at that presentation the chairman will provide some GUIDANCE on 4th quarter results.

It is essentially a "pre-announcement" of most likely Q4 revenues and maybe even eps or some ebitda type number. At least that is how I read the PR from a week or so ago... GUIDANCE for last qtrs results, not an EARNINGS RELEASE.

My understanding is that the full-bore earnings are to be sometime next week. But who knows, maybe they WILL release a full income statement....

And I imagine much or most of the presentation tmw will be about the company, what it does, what its strategies are, how it plans to grow, etc etc to whet the appetites of the small cap invitation-only investors.

[tokyopua]

tokyopua
As I understand it, the full-fledged earnings are NOT being released tomorrow. The company is presenting at an Institutional Investor Conference, which will be webcast as David posted the link, and at that presentation the chairman will provide some GUIDANCE on 4th quarter results.

It is essentially a "pre-announcement" of most likely Q4 revenues and maybe even eps or some ebitda type number. At least that is how I read the PR from a week or so ago... GUIDANCE for last qtrs results, not an EARNINGS RELEASE.

My understanding is that the full-bore earnings are to be sometime next week. But who knows, maybe they WILL release a full income statement....

And I imagine much or most of the presentation tmw will be about the company, what it does, what its strategies are, how it plans to grow, etc etc to whet the appetites of the small cap invitation-only investors.

Yes, you are right, I should have said "before guidance is released" or something like that, its not official earnings as far as I can tell either.  It really isnt clear *exactly* what is happening tomorrow in their presentation, but there should be some clues as to earnings, here is to hoping they are good!

[jmccar2]

Hmmm...I knew JFL rang a bell...I recall the below article that 1st appeared in the WSJ about a year and a half ago...Seems to indicate that JLF may dump short term?

Is this the same JFL-- again, please forgive my newbieness



"Lifting the curtains on hedge-fund window dressing
Wednesday, September 07, 2005

By Jesse Eisinger, The Wall Street Journal



There are several names for it but the most common are Painting the Tape or Portfolio Window-Dressing.

That's when a fund manager buys lots of shares in a specific company they already own, helping push the share price higher and thereby helping to dress up performance figures. Such practices have historically focused on the last day or days of the quarter, since mutual-fund managers focus intently on quarterly performance figures.

The practice was never widespread, but was too common for comfort. Regulators have rarely done much about the curious movements of certain stocks in the final days of a quarter or a month.

But now it appears as if strange movements are appearing at the end of the month. Why? It may be because of the proliferation of hedge funds. Many hedge-fund investors get monthly updates. A down month sets off red flags for hot-money investors and can cause an unwanted exodus of cash.

"Hedge-fund investors have been typically much more short-term-oriented and driven more by monthly returns. It's a short-sighted way of looking at it," says Barry Colvin, the president of Tremont Capital, a "fund of funds" that also tracks hedge-fund data.

The practice of tape-painting usually takes place in stocks with small market values that don't trade a lot of shares. The low volume of trading means a big buyer can move the share price more easily. In the old days, when portfolio managers actually talked to live traders, they might instruct them to "buy it sloppy" -- to disregard price for the purchase.

Often -- but not always -- the share prices recede in the days following the quarter or month. A fund manager investing in a smaller stock can hang on to the stock, rather than sell right after the quarter. Also, a spurt of buying can lure followers. But eventually, the big holder in the smallish stock has to sell, and the exit isn't so pretty. So why do it? Usually investors like to buy low and sell high, but on the last day of the month, the rule becomes buy high and sell wherever or whenever. The reason is that every little bit helps to make a portfolio's monthly record as good as it can be.

One reason that such practices aren't more widespread is that when a big fund plays around with a small stock, it probably won't have a huge impact on its overall performance. Therefore, such practices are usually the purview of smaller funds, where a big move in a smallish stock can have an impact on overall monthly or quarterly performance.

Last Wednesday was the last day of trading in August. It had its share of striking stock charts that look like the letter L lying on its side. In other words, the stocks were trading flattish until the last hour of trading or so and then shot up on heavy volume.

Among them:


Medical Properties Trust, a health-care real-estate investment trust with a market value of about $430 million, was up 50 cents, or 4.8 percent.


True Religion, a $340 million market cap maker of one of those brands of jeans that women actually pay 240 bucks for, was up 46 cents, or 3.1 percent.


Golf Galaxy, an owner golf-supply stores with just over $200 million in market value, was up $1.25, or 6.8 percent.


Nano Proprietary, a nanotechnology company with just over $250 million in market cap that is traded on the bulletin board, was up 19 cents, or 8.4 percent.


Pico Holdings, which runs a water company and owns land in Nevada, and has a market cap of just over $400 million, was up $1.20, or 4.1 percent.


Those were big one-day jumps, especially since all of these stocks beat the performance of the small-stock tracking index, the Russell 2000, which was up just under 2 percent that day. All but Medical Properties have moved higher since Aug. 31.

It's impossible for outsiders without access to the trading records to know what happened for sure. But there is one common thread: They are all stocks that were owned recently by JLF Asset Management, a roughly $500 million hedge fund run by Jeff Feinberg, according to recent Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

As of an Aug. 31 proxy filing with the SEC, JLF owned 6 percent of Medical Properties Trust.

As of a July 22 SEC filing, Mr. Feinberg was listed as a 5.4 percent holder of True Religion.

As of an Aug. 11 SEC filing, Mr. Feinberg owned 6.2 percent of Golf Galaxy.

JLF owned 6.2 million shares, or about 6.2 percent, of Nano Proprietary as of the latest SEC filing.

JLF had 404,000 shares, or 2.5 percent, of Pico Holdings as of June 30. JLF was listed as a selling shareholder in a July 14 offering document.

I sent Mr. Feinberg an email detailing the movements in these five and 10 other companies that his funds were listed as owning as of the latest filings that had noteworthy, but less significant, moves on the last day of August. When he called me back, he told me he wouldn't comment on specific positions and trades.

But he told me: "There's no incentive for me to do anything like you are insinuating," adding, "Almost half the companies I don't own and the vast majority we have not transacted in recently."

I asked him about the five stocks listed above and one other, and he repeated the line above. He then ended the phone call.

Mr. Feinberg started his hedge fund in 1999 and developed a reputation as an active trader and griller of managements. He says he has compounded annual returns since then of 22 percent. He says that after having taken a sabbatical for several months in 2002 to spend time with his three children, he reopened at the beginning of 2003. He was up 15 percent in 2003 and up more than 18 percent in 2004, he says. Since he was down in 2002, when he reopened, he honorably declined to take a performance fee until he got back to even, a common industry practice for an ongoing fund.

Year-to-date, he says he is up more than 5 percent. In July, he was up 9 percent, he said. But in August things didn't go so well: His fund lost 2 percent, he says. It's not hard to see one reason that might be: Abercrombie & Fitch, of which JLF owned 437,100 shares as of June 30, was down 29 percent in the August after having issued a disappointing forecast.

August might have been even tougher if his other positions hadn't rallied on the last day."

[tokyopua]

jmcarr2,

Looks like in the article they refer to JLF Asset Management, but in the CPNE agreement its JLF Partners I, L.P., and JLP Partners II, L.P., so its not 100% clear that it is the same group.

But even if it is, there is a difference between buying on the open market in last few days of the quarter to window dress vs. entering into an agreement well in advance of a mid quarter purchase at a fixed price that is not on the open market, and thus wont move the stock (asside from the lemmings who bailed while screaming dillution, lol).. 

In fact, if it is the same group that adds to the bullish case here as the article you posted cites that JLF is known "for grilling managment" or something like that, which means he really pushes management and asks lots of questions.
So that would indicate that the purchase was made after really doing lots of DD and also that they will pressure them to perform after the purchase as well.

[jmccar2]

Hi tokyopua,

Yes...The foolish lemmings were helpful in boosting the portfolio .

Assuming that it is the same (sole) small San Diego hedge fund referred to, at least we can garner that the end of month seems to be the selling time if their other assets don't do well. When will JLF be able to sell these shares?

It probably won't have a worse effect than a collective group of short profit driven daytraders owning the same number of shares. It's just kind of a large number of shares to be in the same hands with such small CPNE daily volume. Maybe we can assertain how well the hedgefund is doing month to month to make an educated guess as to whether or not JLF will "dump" 

Well, like Michael said, there will be lots of ups and downs along the road-- it should be a real good learning experience for me to keep a "realcoolhead".

Best Regards

[jmccar2]

Oooops

Sorry tokyopua, I meant "ascertain"...I just saw a very gnarly definition of "assertain" on urbandictionary.com...

[realcoolhead]

Hey, this newly designed site of CPNE is way cool!

http://www.consumerloyalty.com/

[tokyopua]

Hi tokyopua,

Yes...The foolish lemmings were helpful in boosting the portfolio .

Assuming that it is the same (sole) small San Diego hedge fund referred to, at least we can garner that the end of month seems to be the selling time if their other assets don't do well. When will JLF be able to sell these shares?

It probably won't have a worse effect than a collective group of short profit driven daytraders owning the same number of shares. It's just kind of a large number of shares to be in the same hands with such small CPNE daily volume. Maybe we can assertain how well the hedgefund is doing month to month to make an educated guess as to whether or not JLF will "dump" 

Well, like Michael said, there will be lots of ups and downs along the road-- it should be a real good learning experience for me to keep a "realcoolhead".

Best Regards

Hmm, I guess that would be good info if someone could sleuth that, i.e. how soon they can sell.    I suppose that a mass sell by them would be equivalent of the dillution scenario we calculated in terms of a short term price drop, though probably not as bad since obviously they wouldnt be selling at $1.9.   However, hedge funds are smart, they want the most they can get for their shares, so I would think they would unload gradually anyway so as not to depress the market for their own shares.

[nullzero]

Hey, this newly designed site of CPNE is way cool!

http://www.consumerloyalty.com/

Nice face lift, good to see they are improving the website.

[tokyopua]

Hey, this newly designed site of CPNE is way cool!

http://www.consumerloyalty.com/

Nice face lift, good to see they are improving the website.

This is not the main website, it appears to be a new subsidiary or something.

[webby67]

A glimpse of the future, perhaps???

I just went to that new Consumer Loyalty Group website, very spiffy.

Anyway, I clicked under Membership Programs and five topic headings came up. They described the current membership offerings under "Income and Investment" -- online supplier and the investing for success real estate programs are here; and under Shopping/Discounts tag which has buydiscount and some other shopping related programs.

But there are 3 topic tabs that all say "COMING SOON"

-- Education

-- Career

-- Finance

are we getting a sneak peek of where the membership programs are heading to in the near future???  Verrrry interesting......

[David Randolph]

As you know, this news was out:

• COMMERCE PLANET Files SEC form 8-K, Amendments to Articles of Inc. or Bylaws; Change in Fiscal Year, Other Events, Fi
EDGAR Online (Wed 5:13pm)

It is a non-event. Basically it is saying JLF Parties can't sell those unregistered shares (which are included in the number of outstanding shares) without CPNE's prior registration of those shares. If CPNE doesn't register the shares, JLF Parties can't sell them, so CPNE agreed to some penalties if that's the case.

I don't think it matters all that much who owns the shares, or if they will sell sooner or later. What matters is the fundamental value of each share. If JLF Parties decides to sell, someone else will be glad to buy, what's the problem? A short term dip? That's not a problem.

But there are 3 topic tabs that all say "COMING SOON"

-- Education

-- Career

-- Finance

are we getting a sneak peek of where the membership programs are heading to in the near future???  Verrrry interesting...... 

Yes webby67, no doubt the company will continue to explore and expand its successful business model into other areas. www.investinginsuccess.com is another website that I think may attract many subscriptions.

Basically, what CPNE.OB is all about is creating and selling high margin subscription services over the internet. www.3stocksonfire.org could be one of their subsidiaries (the only difference is 3 Stocks churn rate is almost zero, and CPNE's is probably about 50% a month - another big difference is they have well over 100,000 subscribers and 3 Stocks has only 151 (but I love them all )). We'll probably get more clues about the actual churn rate today.

Now, the big deal today is the guidance that we'll get on 4th quarter numbers, at 11:30 ET. Between me and Michael, we expect revenues at about $11.5 M and EPS of $0.09 for the quarter.

If, instead of $0.09, they report, say $0.10 EPS, I think CPNE.OB shares would be at $6 in no later than April 2007. But we'll just see about that.

I'm not planning to sell the shares held on the Main Portfolio whatever happens today, since I don't make intraday decisions on this Portfolio and I see outstanding long term value.

[la-onda]

news out !
Commerce Planet, Inc. Provides Pre-Filing Guidance for 2006 Results
Thursday February 22, 7:00 am ET

GOLETA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Commerce Planet, Inc. (OTCBB:CPNE - News), an online media company, and its wholly owned subsidiaries expect to report $8.6 million in profit for fiscal 2006. The 2006 profit represents a complete turn around from fiscal 2005's net loss of ($6.3) million. Commerce Planet expects to report 2006 consolidated revenue of $27.4 million and combined revenue including inter-segment transactions of $34.7 million, which represents year-over-year growth of 275% versus 2005 consolidated revenues of $7.3 million. Earnings for the year ending December 31, 2006 are expected to be $0.18 per weighted average share versus ($0.17) per weighted average share for fiscal 2005. These expectations are based on preliminary financial data and are subject to the final closing of the Company's books and records for the fiscal year.

Michael Hill, CEO, stated, "As our numbers represent, the Company is extremely healthy with strong future growth potential. We intend on leveraging the infrastructure we have built to keep our upward momentum for 2007. I am extremely proud of our management team for their continued commitment to excellence and seamless execution of our strategic initiatives. Their passion and dedication to Commerce Planet has lead to our current level of success."

[webby67]

As I do the math on the guidance, the numbers for Q4 are OK, but not really great, and they are well below what Michael and David were looking for.

Revs about 8.8 mil and eps of about 8 cents for Q4. I know that Q1 is really gonna be the breakout qtr, but these Q4 numbers are  not all THAT great and I dont know why Mr. Hill was in such a hurry to get them out at this Roth Conf with all the advance hoopla and week-ahead PR announcing it ..... 

I hope I have made an error somewhere, but this smells like "selloff" to me....

[David Randolph]

Thanks la-onda

- 4th quarter EPS came in bang in line with what myself and Michael were expecting, that is $0.09 (the $0.18 reported for the full year minus the $0.09 the company already had over the first 3 quarters).

- On revenues, I have doubts about considering the $27.4 M or the $34.7 M number, and that's a big difference. For the first 3 quarters they had revenues of $18.645 M, but I couldn't find out under revenue recognition policies if this is consolidated revenue or "combined revenue including inter-segment transactions".

On that it depends if they had Q4 revenues of $8.755 M (not all that much growth) or Q4 revenues of $16 M, which would represent incredible quarter on quarter revenue growth.

We need to check this out ...

It would be better if they reported the numbers on a quarterly basis, because that way everybody would see the $0.09 EPS, multiply by 4 quarters and get $0.36, apply an average 16 times earnings multiple and push the stock towards $5.76.

This way they may see, instead, $0.18 EPS, means trailing earnings multiple at $3.32/$0.18 = 18.4, not so cool.

But the truth is: the company met our projections on EPS terms (I wonder about revenue), so it's on track. But I wonder about revenue growth ... let me check some more things.