Session of 02/01/2007

[2bun]

Bought some goam @8.38,also mdii here on news

[nica33]

HGR on fire again !!!

[phabrux]

Hi David,

I like to know your opinion about    MEOH
which had a nice steady rise for the last 3 years

WYY my old pick? I don't think so phabrux, at least, I don't remember it. Perhaps it was of the beers I had over lunch , so please refresh my memory with a link.

So David, as a beer fan like me, why don't you have a look at this site before your next order?       www.bierebel.com  

About   WDPT.ob  -----now-->  WYY
You are right, it  was a  Previous 3SOF Pick managed by Michel or ElitG.  I still have it in my portfolio, so with the spring approching I wish to do a bit of cleaning up!  
Here is the link:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5092.45

Happy trading!
phabrux

[dwest718]

Hey David,

Would you suggest buying into CPNE today even after the jump?  Still a good prospect for more of a run?

Also what do you think of SWIR?  Announced earnings last night and beat estimates by a few cents and then guided about 30% higher next quarter.  In a growing industry (wireless communications).  Dropped today some after opening up more than 10%.  I know it's a good long term play but any short term potential?

Thanks

[David Randolph]

Hey David,

Would you suggest buying into CPNE today even after the jump?  Still a good prospect for more of a run?

You should subscribe to the 3 Stocks Premium service dwest718.

There I made a complete long term fundamental analysis of CPNE.OB. I can't share it with you, or else subscribers would be paying for nothing.

SWIR?

I'm sorry, I've covered 14 stocks so far today, I still have 7 more here, and probably I won't get to that today ... I will also miss some of the recent requests made today, so there's no use in posting more requests for this session.

You can ask for the ones I missed today right at tomorrow's open, because my daily limit is about 20 stocks.

Thanks for your participation

[David Randolph]

HOTJ looks interesting- picking up some volume

3 minute look for HOTJ:

This stupid google video is starting to annoy me. "Upload error" again. Let's keep going in writing.

HOTJ's chart is very bullish (although volume in absolute terms is light, just 243,000 shares traded today), but fundamentally I think it's full of air.

Market cap is $145 M, for expected $30 M in revenues for full year 2006, so revenue multiple is about 5. The company sold $12 M in Q3, but it lost $3 M anyway.

I didn't have time to check that convertible debenture issue, but they didn't show up on Q3 balance sheet. They have 2,000,000,000 shares authorized, I don't like that, it looks like they're preparing to dilute shareholder's value by a lot, turning HOTJ a penny stock.

If that's their plan, they will probably make it rise first with volume to create a market, and then they will sell on the way down toward pennies.

So, it can go up due to manipulation, I think, but buying it is a bit of a gamble.

I would avoid HOTJ shares, even though they can rise a lot over the short term, because liquidity is low, long term risk is high.

[nica33]

I know that you have no time for more stocks, but did you review OPBL.ob so far, if yes which is the link?

[David Randolph]

David, CHBD.OB ($1.04, up 18%) looks interesting. It just broke out a 1 year top. up with latest qtr making 3 cents

Well, this is a very low volume stock flyingstocks. Its chart looks like a comb.

Fundamentally:

- $36 M market cap. Engaged in sportswear;
- Balance sheet is acceptable;
- No growth over the years. The price to sales ratio is just about 0.23;
- EPS of 6 cents in fiscal 2006. Trailing earnings multiple is about 17.

Not cheap, not expensive. Extremely low liquidity.

Overall I think it is a boring stock that can move higher, but it can also drop dead around the $1 level.

[David Randolph]

PGIC.  I know it isn't in fire today, but chart looks interesting.

Thanks

Yep, it has been making higher highs and higher lows since August. There was also a golden cross recently.

Brief fundamental analysis:

- Market cap = $320 M. Develops, acquires and distributes innovative table and slot game content as well as software products to meet the needs of gaming operators worldwide (I like the sector);
- Balance sheet is OK, but $59 M in long term debt;
- Revenues went down every year since 2001. Just $75 M expected for 2006. $100 M average estimate for 2007, so analysts are expecting some growth (still, below 2001 levels)
- Estimated EPS loss of ($0.85) in 2006 and ($0.01) for 07.

Overall I don't consider it interesting. But it can rise anyway

[dnickers]

Boy oh boy - SYX is definitely on fire! 

[marlene]

...................i don´t no..................................., but i think.................... "PLRO" ...................is on fire today.........

anyway................... nice trdes with you dave.......

[David Randolph]

I dont know if I was reading that right but a PE in the 5s!? for ROCM thats a steal.

Let me start by the chart ... awesome At a new all time high today.

Brief fundamental analysis:

- MK = $182 M. Develops, manufactures and markets a line of innovative, technologically enhanced PVC-free and latex-free urinary continence and urine drainage care products for the extended care and acute care markets.
- BS extremely strong. $42 M in cash (they gained $38.6 M in a lawsuit settlement this quarter). Current Ratio = 4.62.
- Revenues up consecutively for the past seven quarters.
- Considering $9 M revenue average for 2007 four quarters, I get $36 M in revenues, so, according to this estimate, revenue multiple is 5. The industry average is 3.
- Without this huge one time gain, actually fiscal Q1 2007 (calendar Q4 2006) were somewhat worse than calendar Q3 2006. Revenues rose, but EBITDA declined.
- Considering net profit margin on a normal quarter, say calendar Q2 2006, of 13.3% and my 2007 revenue projection of $36 M, I see EPS of $0.43 for the full calendar 2007.
- So, the forward earnings multiple is $16.7/$0.43 = 39. The industry average is 26.

I think the stock is fully valued at current levels.

[David Randolph]

Boy oh boy - SYX is definitely on fire! 

And taking the Main Portfolio to new all time highs with it

With the press release out today people finally found out that SYX isn't just www.tigerdirect.com, it also is a PC maker probably taking market share from DELL

[David Randolph]

REFR! on fire

Yep, on fire, but incipient revenues of $175 k for a $124 M market cap. Hitachi deal won't fix this.

Not worth it. Good luck though

[BigSully1]

Looks to be a nice close for ITWO, near HOD.