Daytrading with Consensus

[mdszj]

jeg

I currently have 2 open positions of uyg - bought at 21.15 and 22.18.  Got them on 9/12.  I will try to make $1 on each batch.  Do you have any idea if uyg will go up to the 23 range in next few days?

[Ares]

jeg

I currently have 2 open positions of uyg - bought at 21.15 and 22.18.  Got them on 9/12.  I will try to make $1 on each batch.  Do you have any idea if uyg will go up to the 23 range in next few days?

mdszj,

Good luck on your open positions.

I'm trying not to forecast to far anymore.

I'm having enough trouble forecasting the very short term already.

So far, the goal of making at least $100/day has been met again.

Let's see how the experiment goes until the end of this week.

My TD active trader status is going to be activated in a few minutes.

This should increase my trading activity.

I may not be able to update this journal as often anymore since I will be busier.

[Ares]

Question: Which is more risky?
Ultrashort proshares  5 (45.5%)
Shorting  6 (54.5%)
Total Voters: 11


Thank you for your votes.

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Looks like it's time to take a new poll.

I thought market orders will get us out quicker than a limit order.

One of my odd lot orders that I sold using a market order didn't get a fill until after at least 10 minutes!

I was looking at the time and sales when I sold SKF on September 11, 2008 with a market order.

Time and sales showed prints at 123.50s.

My sell order was held for at least 10 minutes and later got a fill for 122.67   

The representative told me that the trading desk needs to match my order with another order that is an odd lot.

Odd lot or not, why do I get a quicker fill (and at times with a better price ) when I place a limit order then?

I thought a market sell order means:

Get me out at the current best bid - NOW!

Looking forward for clarifications.

[Ares]

Unloaded quite a bit of UYG pre-market.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=18080&mid=18080&tof=13&frt=2#18080

Exited all previous SKF "inventory" at a profit and started new round again.

I wonder if SKF will still head towards the Wolfewave target #6.

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http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?bn=57417&tid=18167&mid=18167

Thanks everyone for putting up with my posts.

It has been a great week.

It feels like my trading journey has moved up to second gear.

I will be concentrating more on trading now and will be posting way less.

It's been fun communicating with you.

[mdszj]

jeg

A couple comments/questions:

1) Since I saw yours and brenda's yahoo messages, things seemed to start clicking: I have completed 13 uyg/skf trades for an average of 7.3% per trade, with no losing trades.  Im sure that is just mainly luck but a good start is better than a bad start for sure.  I have been using sma's and point and figure charts to help in picking entry/exit points.  Seems to be working out well so far.

2) Was wondering on average how many trades you do per day ?  I have run into the 3 day rule at TOS so I will need to reduce the number of day trades I do.

3) What is a wolfewave?  I saw you mentioned it above.

GL mdszj

[Ares]

mdszj,

1) I'm glad that the strategy is working out for you too.

2) Lately, around 5 a day. Yesterday, I think I did about 18 trades and looking forward to increase that.

My broker may want to give me better service soon, otherwise...
my business will go to the highest bidder (broker). 

3) Here's a link to the Wolfewave:

http://www.voodootrader.com/wolfewave.htm

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3732.0

I will be annotating the daily SKF chart and will be posting it soon.

[Ares]

The SKF Wolfewave target #6 that I've been posting, was a shortcut of what's been going on in my head.

Here is a more detailed annotation:

[Ares]

Trading plan for monday:

I would like to "hold" UYG at 24.

If market is strong, I'll try to hold it down at 27 and then maybe at 29, etc.

While UYG is held, I'll be going in and out of SKF.

UYG is still within a 1 year/daily linear regression channel AND below the 200sma.

If price hits the ltl (left trend line), it may either fbo (fail to break out) or bo (break out) of it.

If it does break out of it, normally it should go sideways first before looking for a reasonable angle of attack for it's new uptrend.

Looking forward to your thoughts.

[Ares]

I decided to annotate the 20 year/daily chart of UYG.

This may be the frame of UYG's painting.

While looking at a shorter timeframe, UYG looks like it still has to break a descending channel ( the 1 year/daily linear regression line).

If we stay back from the "painting" and look at the bigger picture, this is what I see:

A break out from a falling wedge ( the third steeper descending trendline [peach]).

[Ares]

Here's a closer look at UYG''s daily chart:

1) Still within the pink descending channel.
2) Broke out of the peach descending trendline (falling wedge).
3) New green uptrend channel. ( Connected the 14.08 low to the 14.50 higher low)

ps. made a note and circled the overlapping trendlines ( the descending peach trendline and the green uptrending trendline).

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1)
I wonder when the pink ltl will be tested.
Once price reaches the ltl and if it fbo's, tanking down towards the rtl seems unreasonable.

2)
Normally, the descencending trendline (in this case - the peach trendline)gets tested.
We'll have to wait and see what the market decides to do.

3)
Price is near the ltl of the new green uptrend channel.
Will we see price touching the rtl before it touches the linear regression ltl?

p.s.

After a break out from a descending channel, price normally goes on a sideways movement first before establishing a sustainable angle of attack for the new uptrend - Will this theory hold?

If it does, what would be the range of the sideway movement?

[Ares]

Interesting yellow lines when I set the daily chart on 20year daily for SKF.


Price closed above yesterday's doji.

Is this an indication that SKF will go higher?

Here's the "building"  for tommorow based on today's candle:

5.618   130.690
4.618   125.560
3.618   120.430
2.618   115.300
1.618   110.170
HIGH   107.000
PIVOT   104.84
0.618   103.82966
LOW   101.87
1.618   98.69966
2.618   93.56966
3.618   88.43966
4.618   83.30966
5.618   78.17966

[Ares]

UYG daily chart:

Price closed below the doji and below the peach descending trendline.

So far, there looks to be downward pressure for tommorow- but anything could happen.

Will price go towrds the green uptrending rtl?

Will we have more volatility tommorow?

Let's wait and see how the market reacts.

Here's UYG's building based on today's candle:

5.618   27.731
4.618   26.031
3.618   24.331
2.618   22.631
1.618   20.931
HIGH   19.880
PIVOT   18.94
0.618   18.8294
LOW   18.18
1.618   17.1294
2.618   15.4294
3.618   13.7294
4.618   12.0294
5.618   10.3294

[mdszj]

jeg

I have been holding off with SKF - seems to not be reacting to market price swings like it should, especially with its very high volatility (avg true range of 13.14).  Today I closed out an experimental trade using EEV (em mkt 2x inverse).  It is slightly less volatile (atr = 9.15).  Worked out good - got ~ 8% overnight.  I may use EEV until SKF is working again.

On the other hand, SKF looks like it is at the bottom of its current PnF chart level (approx suppport?) of ~ 96.  Unless it breaks down further I would expect it to go up sooner or later.  The way I read the PnF chart, if it breaks down more I would expect to see another support of ~90 (I think). 

Like I said I could be wrong so Dont quote me on the above!! Could be mis-reading on my part.  Any thoughts appreciated.

mdszj

[Ares]

jeg

I have been holding off with SKF - seems to not be reacting to market price swings like it should, especially with its very high volatility (avg true range of 13.14).  Today I closed out an experimental trade using EEV (em mkt 2x inverse).  It is slightly less volatile (atr = 9.15).  Worked out good - got ~ 8% overnight.  I may use EEV until SKF is working again.

On the other hand, SKF looks like it is at the bottom of its current PnF chart level (approx suppport?) of ~ 96.  Unless it breaks down further I would expect it to go up sooner or later.  The way I read the PnF chart, if it breaks down more I would expect to see another support of ~90 (I think). 

Like I said I could be wrong so Dont quote me on the above!! Could be mis-reading on my part.  Any thoughts appreciated.

mdszj

mdszj,

I've been looking forward to your posts. 

I'm glad you EEV trade worked out well.
gl in your future "journey with it. 

Thanx for sharing your perspective using point and figure ( I still have to learn more about that).

Your 96 support level was pretty close to the post market low (at 95.90) (thumbs up).

Looking forward to more comments from you.

So far, I think SKF will go lower (because of the dead cross on the hourly chart).

I may be wrong too.

gl

btw, I want UYG to be at least $27 by October 2, 2008

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=21069&mid=21069&tof=1&frt=2#21069

[Ares]

SKF daily chart.

Price getting closer to my perceived Wolfewave target line?