Daytrading with Consensus

[Ares]

With SKF closing below the neckline of 119.27 (of the 5 minute chart), there's a possible target around 108's.

However, there seems to be support around 115.03 yesterday (where the daily pink upsloping trendline was).

I sent a buy order at 115.03, cancelled it, re-sent it again, and cancelled a few times.

I wanted to capture the possible bounce off the pink upsloping daily trendline, however, if it breaks below that - it could run down fast ( considering the possible daily head and shoulder pattern).


I am debating whether to try and capture that possible bounce or just wait for it to bounce up and "short it" (by buying UYG) on its way up.

With the weekly bullish divergence signal on UYG though, I don't feel too comfortable getting in on SKF - who knows - my sentiment may change on monday.

Looking forward to your opinions.

[Ares]

Looking at SKF's weekly chart:

it looks like a spinning top that is below the 8ema and above the 50 sma.

Slow stochastics still above 20 (from a cross down above 80) with a negative macd cross.

On the daily chart:

it closed as a doji below the 8 ema and still above the 200sma.

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 21.53, open



SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 121.47

I was looking at this UYG chart below yesterday and  decided to buy SKF if it breaks down.
I ended up buying SKF yesterday at 121.47.

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 21.53, open
#21 at 19.12, open



SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 121.47, sold at 129.52

Sold SKF too soon again - at least at a profit

Bought UYG too soon at 19.12 (19.15 buy typo on the chart).

I had my lower buy target at 18.90 if it broke below 19.60 but ended up getting it at 19.12 because it seemed to have bounced at the head and shoulder target in the 19.08s

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=11651&mid=11651&tof=53&frt=2#11651

[Ares]

I wonder how SKF will react to LEH's recent good news.

I'm hoping to get some volatility today.

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 21.53, open
#21 at 19.12, Sold at 20.13



SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 126.12, open


I sold my UYG too early and bought SKF!

So far it feels like a wrong move - but anything can happen.

I was looking at this SKF hourly chart:

It looks like it was forming a head and shoulder.

I anticipated a bounce ont the rtl of the wedge (which it did) and was anticipating lower volume on the touch of the possible right shoulder.

[Ares]

The low volume happened showed up on the anticpated right shoulder of the SKF hourly chart.

[Ares]

I was anticipating a break of the wedge's rtl on volume.

When it looked like it was bouncing again on the rtl - I bought at 126.12 (looks like a mistake).
I should have followed through on what I saw earlier.

This is how the current SKF hourly chart looks like:

[Ares]

I recently started a thread on the SKF and UYG yahoo board titled "August 23, 2008"

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=77357&mid=77357&tof=6&frt=2#77357

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=12489&mid=12489&tof=1&frt=2#12489

Here was my opening:

" A market maker plays both sides of the trade.
How will it protect itself in a major rally/sell-off?

Lets incorporate a little bit of chess strategies in the stock market.

Looking at what most people see - the daily chart.

How would a market maker react:

1) just based on the daily chart (technical)
2) good news (fundamental)
3) bad news (fundamental)

This is the stage where we anticipate at least two moves ahead. "

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm hoping to get some consensus - maybe some responses from 3SOF'ers too?

Attached is a daily chart of SKF:

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 21.53, open
#21 at 19.64, open



SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 126.12, open

What are the odds of SKF going  above 136.78 today?

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 21.53, open
#21 at 19.64, open



SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 126.12, sold at 134.48

I left for work with an automatic sell order on SKF for 134.48.

When I got back from work, I was glad to see that my order got filled - just 2 cents below the high of day ( which was 134.50). 

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=12827&mid=12827&tof=10&frt=2#12827

So far, the hourly chart looks like it is using the green uptrending line (the possible neckline that I posted before).

Instead of a head and shoulder pattern, it's looking more like a double top right now.

Who knows what it will look like tommorow. 

[Ares]

Here's SKF's daily chart:

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 21.53, open
#21 at 19.64, sold at 20.80



SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open


Sold UYG too early again.

SKF broke below my perceived neckline.

I'm contemplating whether or not I should go long SKF for a potential bounce on its 200sma.

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 21.53, Sold at 22.70 
#20 at 22.46, open (new)
#21 at 21.63, open




SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 109.71, sold at 113.48 


Bought SKF at 109.71 for a quick flip and sold at 113.48.
It looked oversold so i bought it but did not feel too comfortable with the hourly dead cross.
In retrospect, I should have held it longer.

Soon after, I sold UYG at 22.70, from 21.53

[Ares]

When I sold UYG at 22.70, from 21.53, I initially planned to buy it back when it goes down to the  21s.

I ended up getting it at 22.46 when the 1 minute chart looked like it was forming a head and shoulder pattern.

The pattern failed.

I should have sticked with the initial plan.