Daytrading with Consensus

[Ares]

I wanna read up more on Elliot Waves from this link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

Here's my yahoo posts so far: 

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=35461&mid=35461&tof=3&frt=1

[Ares]

I'm still trying to learn how to count (the Elliott Waves), lol.

Not sure if I should label UYG's intraday high as :

Wave #1 - expecting a retrace near 0.618 (in green)

Wave #3 - expecting a retrace near 0.382 (in blue)

[Ares]

Here's UYG's daily chart (I gotta erase all these scribbles soon and start fresh again):

UYG closed as a green candle
Went (breakout) above  the 4th descending trendline (in gold)
I will be labeling the 7 dollar low as #3 now (since the daily candle created a higher high).

If this wave 4 swings up above 9.75 (low of wave 1), that would violate the wave count - wouldn't it?

Let's see how this turns out tommorrow.

[Ares]

UYG's "building"

19.13
16.98
14.83
12.68
10.53
9.20   High
8.38   Pivot
7.87
7.05   Low
5.72
3.57
1.42
-0.73
-2.88

Attached is  "cleaned up" UYG daily chart (set at 20 year/daily) with volume and the 50 and 200 sma's:

[Ares]

UYG's "building"

15.11
13.96
12.81
11.66
10.51
9.80   High
9.08   Pivot
9.09
8.65   Low
7.94
6.79
5.64
4.49
3.34


Inspite of UYG creating a red candle, it created a higher high yesterday.

I drew an uptrending trendline (outside the gold descending trendline it broke out of).

Before UYG turns around (into an uptrend), I'm anticipating it to go sideways first.

Looking at the "building":

1) If UYG does create a lower low:
a) the -1.618 will still be above the all time low.
b) the -2.618 may "kiss" the gold descending trendline it borke out of.

2) If UYG creates another  higher high:
a) the +1.618 is still below the 10.89 swing high (which may be the consolidation area).
b) the +2.618 would surpass Wave 2 (in blue) - which would invalidate the 5 wave down move structure.
b) the +3.618 would be just below the swing high (labeled a)
c) the +4.618 is just below the overhead supply (resistance) of 14.08.

Let's see how the market unfolds.

[Ares]

230.48
211.97
193.46
174.95
156.44
145.00 High
138.80 Pivot
133.56
126.49 Low
115.05
96.54
78.03
59.52
41.01




The 1 star rater seemsto be winning lately over the 5 star raters.

I may stop posting soon, lol.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=36815&mid=36815&tof=3&frt=1

[Ares]

Here's a 5 day/ 5 minute chart of SKF:

I wonder what this will do next.

Breakout (new green #3)

OR

Breakdown (new red #3) ?

[Ares]

Here's a "cleaned up" version of SKF's 5 day/5 minute chart:

What pattern do we see?

[Ares]

SKF's "building"

194.18
183.13
172.08
161.03
149.98
143.15  High
137.49  Pivot
136.32
132.10  Low
125.27
114.22
103.17
92.12
81.07

Attached is SKF's daily chart.

Will price break below the pink uptrending trendline or go up towards the pink descending trendline?

Will SKF trade inside the pink triangle?

[Ares]

UYG's "building"

12.85
12.12
11.39
10.66
9.93
9.48  High
9.12  Pivot
9.03
8.75  Low
8.30
7.57
6.84
6.11
5.38

UYG created a lower high and a higher low.

I'll probably wait for a lower high and a lower low before I label #4 (blue).

The recent high of 9.80 went above the 9.75 low of swing #1(blue).

Is this a validation of support that became resistance?

OR

Did wave 1 get violated?

[Ares]

Possible bull flag on UYG's 5 day/5 minute chart?

(Click blue text dated October 29, 2008 to see annotation of the UYG 1 day/1 minute chart.)

I'm still trying to learn how to count (the Elliott Waves), lol.

Not sure if I should label UYG's intraday high as :

Wave #1 - expecting a retrace near 0.618 (in green)

Wave #3 - expecting a retrace near 0.382 (in blue)

[Ares]

Watching if Futures break above the descending trendline (200sma) on the 1 minute chart.

[Ares]

November 1, 2008 (UYG yahoo message board thread):

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=37603&mid=37603&tof=1&frt=2#37603

UYG's "building"

15.13
14.02
12.91
11.80
10.69
10.00  High
9.61    Pivot
9.31
8.89    Low
8.20
7.09
5.98
4.87
3.76


Attached is the daily, 5 minute, and 1 minute charts:

[Ares]

Here is what I saw in the Futures (when I decided to go long UYG at 8.98):

[Ares]

Yes, I went long on both UYG and SKF - sort of a straddle.

I think UYG still has some room up - maybe towards the 10.89 resistance on the daily chart.

If it breaks above that, it may test the 13.00 resistance.

It may even go for the 14.08 resistance (which I think has a lot of overhead suppy).

Went long SKF because I think UYG may go on a sideways movement first before creating an uptrend.

With US elections coming up, UYG may pull back for a double bottom (hopefully not an inverse head and shoulder).

After the election, it may cross above the mid W.

Who knows - that is just my speculation.

The gold descending channel is the 4th descending channel I've drawn ( which price recently broke out of).

From observations, usually price breaks out of the 3rd descending channel.

The steeper the channel gets, the cheaper it becomes.

The more bearish it looks, the more bullish it becomes.

There's always the exceptions.

I won't be surprised if UYG tests the 14.08 resistance before the blue #4 is marked.

It may even head towards the peach (3rd descending trendline), which would make UYG look like it has a bear flag.

Let's see what the market decides to do.