Daytrading with Consensus

[Ares]

I decided to look at UYG from a different perspective.

Using Stockcharts, this is what I see:

The weekly chart still showing price below the 8 ema and a resistance (swing) of 14.01.

The daily chart:
(See side notes on the chart)

[Ares]

Wolfewave on the 1 day/ 1 minute chart of UYG in the making?

[Ares]

ybme,

Thanks for your comment.

Here's Daneric40's comment that goes in line with what I think:

"

Yes that is what I am saying. Up Monday to whatever peak we make it to, then massive correction likely thru Tuesday, then Wednesday we are up big.

So I will be looking to maybe go long Monday, sell at peak Monday and short. Hold through correction to a bottom on Tuesday, then go long again end of day or at the bottom for a Wednesday pop back up big time.

Thats my thinking for now anyways. The tape will tell the story of course.

I also think the MM's will run this to peak Monday, squeezing shorts who had a "sure thing" of down on Monday (and up Tuesday), get everyone thinking long for Tuesday and drop it hard on Tuesday catching everyone on the wrong side of the trade and then once they all get short again to on late on Tuesday, they get squeezed on Wednesday.

Enough to make someone throw up unless you have a heads up that this "ending diagonal" (hopefully thats what it is) is due to break hard down regardless of what the MM's do. TA is accurate.

All rising wedges (ending diagonals) collapse....
"

Remember me talking about stock trading is like playing chess?

How would I play it if I were a market maker?

Btw, the posters that are giving me 1 star may be market makers that doesn't want their plan exposed.

Just a thought.

I may be wrong - I just want the average investor - especially newbies - to be playing at hopefully a more level playing field.

However, newbies against market makers? (can't be even close.)

I just hope newbies can stay long enough in the game without being shaken out (of their money) completely.

Happy trading and good luck.

[Ares]

Here's my post directed to Daneric40 on the SKF board:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=164405&mid=164405&tof=1&frt=1#164405

"

I like the chart you used at Stocktock Social titled : Ending Diagonal (November 1, 2008).

It looks similar to the TOS chart I'm using(wink).

Looking at your labels:

It looks like you are waiting for an Elliot wave #5 up move.

That is what I see too.

Not sure if you have looked into Wolfewaves.

This is what I see on your chart:

Your pink #3 is my WW #1

Your pink #4 is my WW #2

Your pink #5 is my WW#3

Your next set of pink #2 is my WW#4

The low of the chart to WW #1 is the lead in.

WW #4 went below WW#1 but still above #2.

There also seems to be a nice time symmetry between the waves.

I'm waiting for a WW#5 (also Elliot wave #5) with Fakeout volume (Capitulation on the upside).

Then, it may tank towards the WW#6 for the "shakeout".

"

Here's the link to his annotation:

http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A3773

Attached is my annotation of the SPX on the 30 minute chart:

Looks like a Wolfewave set up to me.

It's going to be a big shakeout if it is.

Let's see what the market decides to do on Monday.

[wrangler]

Hey Ares 
How's it been going. It's been a crazy year in the market. I've been staying out of the game for a while and decided to check in here and seen you're still posting.
Have a good one

[Ares]

Hi Wrangler,

It's so nice to see you post again.

I've been busy with UYG and SKF lately.

I've been watching the Futures too lately.

Attached is a possible Wolfewave set-up on the 30 minute chart of the /ES.

It would be nice if you, Melf, Calven, or anyone else into Wolfevaves can confirm.

[Ares]

UYG took out the 10.17 (wave 1) high I was watching.

I mentioned earlier that if that is taken out, UYG may go for the 3rd wave (which some Ellit wavers view as the largest move, some view it is the 5th wave that is the largest).

Looking at Futures:

My anticipated 985 resistance area has been taken out!

Will price go for the Wolfewave target #5 on the 30 minute chart?

Note: Watch out for the Wolfewave #5 fakeout if it does.

I may not post as much today (since it may be quite volatile).

If it does get quite volatile - know that I will be here

Happy trading and good luck.

[Ares]

I re-annotated the UYG daily chart.

I'm hoping for a double bottom around the 7.00 area (78.6% extentsion) and NOT a 100% extention to the 2.05 area for an inverse head and shoulders.

[Ares]

I'm hoping that UYG's recent upswing will carry it through towards the 14.08 resistance and maintain the current green uptrend line before pulling back.

Here's UYG's "building" from yesterday's candle:

14.68
13.90
13.12
12.34
11.56
11.08  High
10.77  Pivot
10.60
10.30  Low
9.82
9.04
8.26
7.48
6.70

[Ares]

Will SKF hold the most recent (green) uptrend line on the daily chart?

So far, it closed below the 50 and 200 sma's.

[Ares]

This is my recent posting at the UYG message board:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=tm&bn=57417&tid=38355&mid=38355&tof=1&frt=2

SPX Futures:

Watching the

1180 to 1173 area ( "meeting" area)

1067 (swing high)

1050 (what some traders seem to be watching).

992.75 (previous swing high resistance).

----------------------------------------------------- -------

I re-annotated the UYG daily chart.

I'm hoping for a double bottom around the 7.00 area (78.6% extentsion) and NOT a 100% extention to the 2.05 area for an inverse head and shoulders.

I'm hoping that UYG's recent upswing will carry it through towards the 14.08 resistance and maintain the current green uptrend line before pulling back.

Here's UYG's "building" from yesterday's candle:

14.68
13.90
13.12
12.34
11.56
11.08 High
10.77 Pivot
10.60
10.30 Low
9.82
9.04
8.26
7.48
6.70

----------------------------------------------------- -------

Will SKF hold the most recent (green) uptrend line on the daily chart?

So far, it closed below the 50 and 200 sma's.

Jeff,

Good work on the 11.10 target on UYG yesterday (high was 11.08 - 2 cents away from your target). (thumbs up).

I was looking at the 10.89 swing high as resistance (and missed the 11.15 swing high resistance.

----------------------------------------------------- -------

Will the 11.15 resistance get taken out today?

If it does, how high will UYG go?

----------------------------------------------------- -------

Will it create a higher low?

----------------------------------------------------- -------

Will it create a lower low?

If it does, how low will it go?

[Ares]

Here's a wide zoom of SKF's daily chart:

The yellow lines are eyeballed support/resistances (some were combined with the fibonacci levels based on the previous day's candle.

[Ares]

This is what I see when I Zoomed in to SKF's daily chart:

Price broke out of the peach (3rd descending trendline) and went back up and closed above the 200 and 50 sma's.

Will this up move continue towards the left trend line of the pink triangle?

OR

Did it just validate the pink right trendline (previous support as resistance?

When will it break below the green uptrending trendline it bounce off from?

[Ares]

UYG's daily chart has more yellow lines than SKF! lol. 

I added extra yellow lines (fibonacci levels) below the all time low of 7.00 - just in case it creates a new low (for the potential inverse head).

UYG created a lower high and a lower low yesterday.

Is that the signal to mark the start of wave 4 (blue from previous annotation) down move?

Will UYG create a double bottom or an inverse head and shoulders?

If UYG does create a new all time low, will that be accompanied with large volume (the capitulation volume that a lot of traders are waiting for?

[Ares]

Here's UYG's daily chart with blue #4 down move marked.