Daytrading with Consensus

[Ares]

I've read a disturbing thread on the UYG message board and decided to offer some help:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=39041&mid=39041&tof=1&frt=1

Bubacoco,

Talk like this is not a nice joke (if it is):

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks...

However, if you are serious - please get some help and talk to a counsellor.

We have to remind ourselves that we're only supposed to put money we can afford to lose in the stock market and not our whole life savings.

When I started in the stock market, I looked at it as paying a yearly tuition fee for university.

If I lost that amount alloted for the year, that was my tuition fee for learning.


Imagine going to university to become a doctor and after graduating, you decided you actually wanted to become a lawyer.

OR

If you became a lawyer - and got disbarred.

OR

If you actually liked the industry you graduated from - but no jobs available for the profession you picked.

Life may be viewed as a big gamble.

Take marriage for example.

What is your guarantee that you end up with the perfect spouse?

Anyway, as pp38h said:

"
dude... you have money! UYG is not worthless. You say you have 7K shares and the current price is $8.00 that means that you have $56,000 !!! You have a job!!! that job pays $70,000 per year. So you have the means to make more money...

think about what might have happened if you had bought a house, the value would have risen, you might have taken out a HELOC and gambled that in the market!!! then you would be out the money and be facing foreclosure !!! never look at the path not taken... you didn't take it so you don't know where it might have led...

HECK, if you want a house so bad... you could take that $56,000 and use it as a down payment on a house today!!!

COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS
"

I like what most of what jason_resey posted.

Here's one of them"

"
Please, I urge you to not talk like this. In the dot com bubble I lost well over $500,000 and just this past month alone, I have lost another $250,000. And before you think I must be rich, truth is I now have barely enough to pay the bills in my bank account.

I am feeling a lot of pain right now. I have a good friend that has offered me a shoulder, which helps a lot. You should talk to someone. I will never give up. I urge you to do the same. God has gave you a gift outside of the crock markets, pursue that. As for me, I have lost so much I am going to continue to hold. Throw my UYG into a cupboard for a few years and forget about it. For the sake of my sanity.

I know the saying it's just money might not help right now. But realize this. Let's take a hypothetical billionaire that has been diagnosed with late-stage cancer and has been diagnosed with only days to live. The billionaire offers the doctor $1B billion to cure him. All the money in the world, will not be able to help him.

Moral of the story. It really is just money, take care of yoruself because you are far more valuable than any amount of money. And, if you are serious in what you said. Please talk to someone and get some help. Nothing at all to be ashamed of. Here's a national number. 1-800-273-8255

Take good care.
"

----------------------------------------------------- -------
This qoute came to mind when I read your thread:

" What will it profit a man if he gained the whole world, but lost his own soul? "

Possible solutions:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks...

from timberticles:

"
i dont understand..why arnt you guys hedging with skf,,fxp,,eev or some of the good ultra shorts and with those profits buy uyg at these low prices...this is a traders market now and they are making great money
"

from mc4:

"
Try this, it could help

With 7K shares, sell out the money calls each month, you might be able to get $0.50 to $1 per share each month and bring your cost basis down. Be prepared that your stock might get called, but if it is, it is at a higher price, at least you are up, if not you continue the next month and sell another call.

It might take several months, but it can get you back to a decent position.

Take care
"

----------------------------------------------------- --------
Bubacoco,

I don't know the incements that you bought on UYG and how many shares alloted per increment.

If I had 7,000 shares of UYG:


Assuming I can sell 1,000 shares at $8.00

1,000 shares* $8.00/share = $8,000

That would be $8,000 to work with!

I will use this money to hedge UYG with SKF and write out of the money covered calls short term (on some of the shares left - part of the 6,000 shares left in the "inventory").

That is what I would do, however, you are in control.

gl

Assuming you have $8,000 to work with.

Buy SKF in increments - don't go all in!

10 shares * $150/share = $1,500
10 shares * $130/share = $1,300
10 shares * $110/share = $1,100
10 shares * $90/share = $900
10 shares * $70/share = $700
10 shares * $50/share = $500
10 shares * $30/share = $300
10 shares * $10/share = $100
10 shares * $1/share = $10

----------------------------------------------------- --------
1500+1300 = 2800
2800+1100 = 3900
3900+900 = 4800
4800+700 = 5500
5500+500 = 6000
6000+300 = 6300
6300+100 = 6400
6400+10 = 6410

You would only use $6400 (from the $8000 you're working with)

8000-6410=1590

You would have $1590 for extras (commissions,etc.)

Scale in and out of positions.

Example:

Buy #1 = 10 shares at $150/share
Buy #2 = 10 shares at $130/share
Buy #3 = 10 shares at $110/share

Let's suppose buy #1 was wrong and it starts going down:

1) use a stop loss
2) write a covered call (if shares were at least 100)
3) hold as "inventory"

Go to buy #2 (10 shares at $130/share)

Let's suppose buy #2 was a good entry:

1) If it goes up to $135/share:

10 shares * $5/share = $50

2) If it goes to $140:

10 shares * $10/share = $100

3) If it goes to $150:

10 shares * $20/share = $200

If the buy #2 is not profitable, go to buy #3 and repeat process.

If buy #3 is still not profitable, you may want to start liquidating some UYG at a profit. (wink)

[Ares]

SKF "building" and daily chart

229.24
211.26
193.28
175.30
157.32
146.21  High
139.59  Pivot
135.10
128.23  Low
117.12
99.14
81.16
63.18
45.20

How will the job numbers affect trading today?

[Ares]

UYG "building" and daily chart

15.14
13.87
12.60
11.33
10.06
9.28    High
8.50
8.43    Pivot
8.01    Low
7.23
5.96
4.69
3.42
2.15

[Ares]

I like this thread started by kaptain_krispy_kreme at the UYG message board:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=39086&mid=39086&tof=2&frt=1

[Ares]

Vector,

Yes, I am holding 2 SKF positions.

I placed an order at 8.42 to test if UYG is strong enough to break the 8.43 pivot the second time - it did!

I hope it continues its upward movement.

However, I was concerned of the possibility that it may be just short covering for the weekend.

Looking at the SPX:

The recent swing high of 1008.50 is the nearest swing to the 23.6% from the high of 1527 and low of 825.


897 may be a possible swing low (still waiting for a higher high and a lower low for confirmation on this).

897 is near the 61.8% retracement from the high of 1008.50 and low of 825.

I also drew descending trendlines.

1st descending trendline (red):

Connected the highs of 1527 (Dec 11, 2007) to 1426 ( May 21, 2008).

2nd descending trendline (pink):

Connected the highs of 1426 (May 21, 2008) to 1291.25 ( September 19, 2008).

3rd descending trendline (peach):

Connected the highs of 1291.25 (September 19, 2008) to 1221.25 (September 29, 2008).

Price recently went above the 3rd descending trendline (peach) to become the 1008.50 swing high.

That's all I've done for my weekend anottation so far.

I will be posting the chart on my journal and hopefully work on the UYG and SKF charts too.

p.s.

In chess, there is something known as sacrificing.

I placed 2 SKF long positions for the weekend (pawns) just in case the plan is breached.

[Ares]

SKF's high yesterday at 148.35 is near the 50% retracement from an upmove of 85.22 low to the 211.75 high.

The swing low at 87 (based on the 211.75 high and 85.22 low) went below 78.6%.

I plotted another upmove retracement from the 87 low to the 205.35 high.

The swing low at 105.66 was below the 78.6% retracement too.

The high yesterday just went above a little bit on the 50% retracement and closed below it.

[Ares]

I plotted another up move retracement on SKF from 105.66 to 185.46.

The swing low of 110.23 is below the 78.6% retracement again.

It went up above the 50% retracement but closed below it.


It looks like it used th 61.8% as support.

[Ares]

When I plotted the down move from 211.75 high to the 87 low, the retracement went above the 78.6% retracement.

The second down move from the 205.35 high to the 105.66 low, retraced just above the 78.% retracement too.

Will the 3rd down move from the 185.46 high to the 110.23 low retrace near the 78.6% too?

[Ares]

Added trendlines with different angles of attack to the SKF daily chart.

1st descending trendline = red

2nd descending trendline = pink

3rd descending trendline = erased the peach descending trendline it broke out of in the previous annotation.

Currently waiting for a lower high and a lower low to draw the peach trend line.

Will price travel towards the pink ltl (lefr descending trend line) ?

If it does, will it be a

pink triangle

or will a

pink (ltl)/green (rtl) triangle

be more logical?

[Ares]

5 day/ 5 minute chart of the /ES showing a break above of the peach (3rd descending trendline of the daily chart).

Will this continue tommorrow?

Will the SPX follow the same pattern?

[Ares]

Re-annotated UYG.

Started with a 20 year/day chart.

I see a signficant support/resistance area near the 61.8% and the 23.6% from the 74.09 high to the 7.00 low.

Drew descending trendlines:

Red = 1st descending trend line

Pink 1 = 2nd descending trendline from 72.96 high (May 31, 2007) and connected to  the 69.80 high (August 17, 20007 candle)

Pink 2 = 2nd descending trendline from 72.96 high (May 31, 2007) and  connected to  the 62.69 high (October 11, 2007 candle)

Peach 1 = 3rd descending trendline from 69.90 high connected to 62.69 high and 37.22 high

Peach 2 = 3rd descending trendline from 62.69 high connected to 24.88 high

To identify Pink 1 from pink 2; and peach 1 from peach 2, I thickened the pink 1 and peach 1 descending trendlines.

Gold 1 (thick) = 4th descending trendline from 25.03 high connected to 24.88 high (fanned out)

Note on Gold 1: went above Peach 1 (thick peach descending trendline) but did not touch peach 2.

Gold 2 =  4th descending trendline from 24.88 high 18.61 high (fanned out)


Drew a horizontal line from the 14.08 low

Drew horizontal lines from the 11.08 recent swing high

Drew horizontal lines showing the current all time high of 74.09 and current all time low of 7.00

[Ares]

Here's UYG's 1 year/daily chart with 1 year/daily linear regression values:

The most recent candle looks like it's "sitting" at the blue linear regression line.

[Ares]

UYG daily chart with fanned out (thin) gold descending trendlines.

[Ares]

Bearish wolfewave on the VIX?

I'm watching for a possible head and shoulder pattern on the hourly chart.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=197180&mid=197180&tof=8&frt=2

[Ares]

Looking more and more like a gap up on friday for the SPX.

Breaking away from the descending trend line of the daily chart?