Session of 02/23/2007

[tokyopua]

CNLG on fire on orders of 19 systems.  If only I could figure out how much those systems cost...

[David Randolph]

AOI

Avg Vol (3m):   774,948
Market Cap:   805.51M

BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Alliance One International, Inc. engages in the purchase, process, store, and sale of leaf tobacco in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. It primarily offers flue-cured, burley, and oriental tobaccos that are used in international branded cigarettes. The company offers its products to the manufacturers of cigarettes and other consumer tobacco products. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Morrisville, North Carolina.

This board's limit in market cap terms is $500 M.

[Guloso]

Hi David,

Hope you are fine. Long time without to talk with you (previously we talked in our native language).  I feel stupid in write to you in English!!!  First of all, congratulations to you and to PM for all the good work.  Keep on that!

What do you think about MFI?  The Average Daily Volume is lower than the 50.000 (around 35.000) but the chart and fundamentals are good. 



Hi David,

Could you check MFI today?  It seems it is preparing a new strong movement. Thanks.

[nullzero]

MSI making new highs still! 30% day it is looking like.

[David Randolph]

Hi David, could you please take a look at NICH?good earnings .
thanks

Technically NICH has no trend, as it is moving sideways and between the 50 and 200 days SMAs.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $32 M. The Company engages in the wholesale importation and distribution of clothing and housewares manufactured to its specifications and distributed in the United States under Company brand labels and retailer-owned private labels.
• The company has been diluting shareholder's value lately On November 30, 2006, the number of shares outstanding was 5,253,507, on August 2006 it was 4.7 M and 3.5 million a year earlier
• Balance sheet is weak, current ratio is just 1.18 and zero cash balance
• Revenue trend is positive and the August - November quarter has very strong numbers in terms of revenues and profits. Revenue for the quarter alone was $35 M and EPS was $0.26, hence the big jump the stock had on January 23rd.

I see that receivables grew a lot over this latest quarter ... this is an interesting situation, but since I see dilution and a weak balance sheet, I guess the company will take any rally as an opportunity to issue and sell some more shares. Longer term in can be interesting, because if those sales and profits are for real and continue, they will improve the balance sheet, and therefore probably stop those dilutive practices.

For now I'm neutral on NICH, good luck

[David Randolph]

"LTS"

Avg Vol (3m):   828,397
Market Cap:   501.41M
Diluted EPS (ttm):   0.03

I guess LTS is down a lot today, so no longer a $500 M plus market cap.

I already covered this stock as one can see on the Stocks Covered List.

I could never understand the reason why it was up so much. In fact, I lost quite a bull run on this stock. Let the take a fresh new look at it.

Technically the trend is bullish, but the stock has been pulling back strongly over the last couple of days. Is this a buying opportunity or else the high of a parabolic rise was made and the stock just turned bearish?

Let's see what a brief fundamental analysis has to say:

• Market cap is $455 M. It is engaged in retail and institutional securities brokerage, investment banking services and investment activities.
• Ok, this an heavy "diluter", check the share count rise over the years
• Balance sheet is weird, but book value is just $23.71 M
• Revenues are declining by a lot over the years
• The company doesn't have many operations, hence not losing as much money as it used to do

Now I see what propelled such a huge rally. These guys really know the market and how it works. There were several insider buying SEC files published over the last couple of months, and everybody followed that lead. But, insiders can be buying shares with the company's money (which they get as a bonus or other), and at the same time the company dilutes shareholder's value. I have no doubt that is happening as I write.

This is a classic pump & dilute operation (EVCC style). This stock will probably be a penny stock in 6 months time. I will never touch it.

It goes to show that stocks can rise a lot due to the most various reasons, not all of them fundamentally sound, but those that have a strong fundamental background usually go up to new highs after a correction.

[TraderStar]

Before I give you any advice on those 3 stocks, I need to know which ones are they? Probably the best course of action would be to just let go of those losers, it would be a valuable lesson. But, one never knows ... let me learn from your mistake on those stocks, what went wrong?

And if by any chance these stocks are good, just experiencing bad times, then the rest of us might want to get in while they are on sale 

[David Randolph]

Damn, I just saw that TRMM failed to breakout. Sold for a small loss at $3.19.

This is the second time I lose a bit of money on TRMM, I say forget it, will erase it from my watch list, good luck to anyone that will continue holding.

Fundamental value seems superior, but I don't know, perhaps the company's assets value will be eroded by operating losses.

Ever since the stock started coming off from the opening level that this fall was inevitable, because the stock opened at a crucial technical point, as you can see on the chart below. My hands have been weak and would remain weak on TRMM.

I need to find a better stock, one that I trust completely. Thanks for your suggestions

[kslifka]

David,

Wondering If you were able to take a closer look at ACY last night.

I bought some yesterday(along with VII) and was looking for some deeper fundamental analysis.
Thanks.

[tokyopua]

I just picked up some NEOL at 2.05.  No need for analysis, just a heads up, its another failed biotech like COR, but running suddenly on no news...

[nica33]

USEG.  UP 11 % WITH BIG VOL.

[WallStreetnBio]

Damn, I just saw that TRMM failed to breakout. Sold for a small loss at $3.19.

This is the second time I lose a bit of money on TRMM, I say forget it, will erase it from my watch list, good luck to anyone that will continue holding.

Fundamental value seems superior, but I don't know, perhaps the company's assets value will be eroded by operating losses.

Ever since the stock started coming off from the opening level that this fall was inevitable, because the stock opened at a crucial technical point, as you can see on the chart below. My hands have been weak and would remain weak on TRMM.

I need to find a better stock, one that I trust completely. Thanks for your suggestions

What do you mean failed to break out? What resistance was this breakout supposed to overcome? You held the stock for one day. It looks like there is going to be a golden cross coming soon. Im sad to see TRMM go 

[David Randolph]

Good morning David.  I would like to know your opinion for JADE.  they finish 2006 with 45 stores and by december 2007 their plans are to open 100 more.  The last year earnings were 34 cents.  How much could be with those new stores?

Thanks

JADE, here's a magic stock! I should have taken your advice to buy it on that dip ... it was at about $6.5 back then

Well, a simple math calculus would say that if with 45 stores they earned 34 cents per share, with 100 they would earn (100/45)*$0.34 = $0.76

We wish stocks were that simple ... but I tell you, maybe that is what's really going on with JADE. If $0.76 were a fair 2007 EPS estimate, the stock would then be trading at 15 times forward earnings, which is about the market average.

But of course, there's more to it, let me make a new brief fundamental analysis on JADE, to see if I see something more to it.

• Market cap is $214 M. A vertically integrated company that designs, brands, markets and distributes a complete range of fine jewelry. Specializes in semi-precious jewelry.
• They like to dilute. The share count on September the 30th was 18.94 million, but just 15.5 million in 05, 12.3 million in 04 and so on.
• Balance sheet is ok.
• Revenues are growing nicely since 02. They're expected at $123 M in 06. Price to sales ratio is 1.74
• Due to dilution, despite having net income growth in 2005 compared to 2004, EPS was lower. The company gave 2006 EPS guidance of $0.34, with $0.16 coming from the 4th quarter alone. From 05, net income rose 76%, but EPS growth was somewhat lower, at 62%, due to 22% dilution

I have doubts that the current rally will continue to much higher levels. I'm afraid the company will use the rally to increase the share count a good 20 or 30% more, because that has been their practice.

If I held it I would take profits. I think the move has run its course. Can be wrong though. Good luck and congrats on this spectacular trade nica33

[tokyopua]

Damn, I just saw that TRMM failed to breakout. Sold for a small loss at $3.19.

This is the second time I lose a bit of money on TRMM, I say forget it, will erase it from my watch list, good luck to anyone that will continue holding.

Fundamental value seems superior, but I don't know, perhaps the company's assets value will be eroded by operating losses.

Ever since the stock started coming off from the opening level that this fall was inevitable, because the stock opened at a crucial technical point, as you can see on the chart below. My hands have been weak and would remain weak on TRMM.

I need to find a better stock, one that I trust completely. Thanks for your suggestions

What do you mean failed to break out? What resistance was this breakout supposed to overcome? You held the stock for one day. It looks like there is going to be a golden cross coming soon. Im sad to see TRMM go 

There was a symetrical triangle breakout in play.  On my chart it hasnt totally failed, but has dropped right down to the start point of the breakout.  But the chart today does look pretty bearish, before David sold I was scouring the net looking for some bad news the decline was so steep.

[2bun]

Hi David,check out EDAC.ob.Same sector as KRSL,just broke 52 week high.I believe earnings are in a couple weeks. 4.68 now. Thanks