Session of 02/23/2007

[nullzero]

David,  I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios.  Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more.  Just my humble opinion.  

CPNE is in the main as well. But when you sell out in the 3stocks it kind of contradicts and confuses those holding for the main plan. I think david doesnt want another situation like CPNE... smaller cap stocks that the main holds can be effected by selling in the 3stocksonfire portfolio at least in the short term.

[David Randolph]

David,  I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios.  Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more.  Just my humble opinion.   

The thing is I believe fundamental analysis can be used for short term trading too. For better short term trading. For example, a stock shots up due to some news. The chart looks great, but through a fast fundamental analysis you see the news isn't as significant, or not significant at all to the company (or else, very, very significant, in that case, you should buy it).

If I were to just run with the chart, jumping around from one to another, I would probably end up making many, many trades and not making money at all (I've been there, done that). My hands would be weak.

As for MSI, I own a good portion of it at the Main, which is a much larger portfolio than the Fire. Currently the Main owns 12 stocks and it has room for 15. The Fire only has room for 3 stocks.

People pay to access the Main Portfolio and the daily updates I write everyday. I don't want to mess with that sound, responsible and high quality service by confusing people, selling shares that I believe are attractive long term fundamental holdings just because they're not on fire anymore.

With 11,000 stocks out there, I shouldn't play with the Main's holdings.

I think people were a bit confused when I sold CPNE at the Fire, but held it at the Main. Some of them didn't know what to do, sell or hold?

I don't want that to happen anymore.

This is just an experiment, I'm showing what I would do if I had just $15,000 as starting capital.

Thanks for your post and curiosity

[kslifka]

ACY getting ready to rumble

[nica33]

David,  I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios.  Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more.  Just my humble opinion.   

The thing is I believe fundamental analysis can be used for short term trading too. For better short term trading. For example, a stock shots up due to some news. The chart looks great, but through a fast fundamental analysis you see the news isn't as significant, or not significant at all to the company (or else, very, very significant, in that case, you should buy it).

If I were to just run with the chart, jumping around from one to another, I would probably end up making many, many trades and not making money at all (I've been there, done that). My hands would be weak.

As for MSI, I own a good portion of it at the Main, which is a much larger portfolio than the Fire. Currently the Main owns 12 stocks and it has room for 15. The Fire only has room for 3 stocks.

People pay to access the Main Portfolio and the daily updates I write everyday. I don't want to mess with that sound, responsible and high quality service by confusing people, selling shares that I believe are attractive long term fundamental holdings just because they're not on fire anymore.

With 11,000 stocks out there, I shouldn't play with the Main's holdings.

I think people were a bit confused when I sold CPNE at the Fire, but held it at the Main. Some of them didn't know what to do, sell or hold?

I don't want that to happen anymore.

This is just an experiment, I'm showing what I would do if I had just $15,000 as starting capital.

Thanks for your post and curiosity

Thanks David for such explanation.  Those are the things that add more and more value to the 3SOF website.   

[nica33]

David, if you have time I would appreciate if you take a look to UCTT.  It's on fire today!

[David Randolph]

I wrote in both, but I changed several times the username. Don t worry if you don t remembers me. Normally we never forget the Gurus, but the opposite isn t true.

Yes, please. Despite the Daily average is around the 35.000, it seems to me the Fundamentals are good: Results are improving strong in the last years; good balance,

Ok Guloso, let's check out MFI 

The chart looks awesome, nice catch, for a Portuguese lol, I'm hurting myself.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $78 M. A specialized commercial finance company that leases and rents 'microticket' equipment and provides other financing services. The Company operates primarily through its wholly owned subsidiary, Leasecomm Corporation.
• No significant dilution for the past 4 years, I like that.
• This is a financial company, weird balance sheet
• Revenues are going down every year, but, this is interesting, the company is getting profitable
• $0.28 EPS in 2006 puts the trailing earnings multiple at 20, which seems a bit high

Why is the stock moving up lately? The following news was the catalyst:

• MicroFinancial Incorporated Announces Fourth Quarter and Year End 2006 Results
Business Wire (Wed, Feb 7)

Yep, looks nice, but trading at 20 times 2006 EPS now, it looks at about fair value. Why do you think it is worth a lot more than this? (just somewhat more is not enough for me to buy it).

Obrigado e aparece mais vezes

[nullzero]

MFI popped up on my stock screener filter as well yesterday.

[nullzero]

David I was curious why PRS was so cheap fundamentally? I know its market cap is 540mill  , but it looks like an interesting stock.

[tokyopua]

David,  I'm a little confused because I''m not understanding the difference between the main and the fire portfolios.  Which is the essence of both? Since the fire portfolio is short term (that's what I think), it shouldn't be approached more technical than fundamental? for example you say you have MSI in the main, but you could make some money today on that one buying for the Fire portfolio and selling as soon is not on fire any more.  Just my humble opinion.   

The thing is I believe fundamental analysis can be used for short term trading too. For better short term trading. For example, a stock shots up due to some news. The chart looks great, but through a fast fundamental analysis you see the news isn't as significant, or not significant at all to the company (or else, very, very significant, in that case, you should buy it).

If I were to just run with the chart, jumping around from one to another, I would probably end up making many, many trades and not making money at all (I've been there, done that). My hands would be weak.

David, you are really cutting down the risk, and that is an amazing thing.  I am reading Stock Market Wizards, and while there were traders in it that made over 3 figure percentage returns, it seemed the author was most impressed by the trader who was making an average of 40% but with almost no risk.  And that makes sense, which is better, a few years of 100% plus returns that risk losing it all back in a bad year, or consistent 40% returns with almost no risk?

Great stuff you are teaching us here and in your premium updates, I love it!

[David Randolph]

David, if you have time I would appreciate if you take a look to UCTT.  It's on fire today!

I was just about to buy it quickly, but then saw those historical share count numbers and didn't like it. I think it might run further, but my hands would be week holding it, due to that factor.

But revenue, EPS numbers and 07 estimates look quite attractive (still, not as attractive as AMKR or IMOS in the semiconductor space - although different companies).

Also, the factor moving UCTT is a JP Morgan recommendation ... I don't like to buy when those big power houses tell me to.

[OneStockMind]

I have a question that might sound silly but it's just my observation..
So, general markets are down today and my portfolio is 99% green. My portfolio has mostly stocks under $1 so it seems when big board stocks suffer my stocks bloom and vice versa. Is that just a coincidence or there's a corelation?

[kslifka]

WWAT.ob is breaking out.

[David Randolph]

I have a question that might sound silly but it's just my observation..
So, general markets are down today and my portfolio is 99% green. My portfolio has mostly stocks under $1 so it seems when big board stocks suffer my stocks bloom and vice versa. Is that just a coincidence or there's a corelation?

Coincidence, you just own the right stocks for today, the majority of stocks is down on the session, big and small.

[OneStockMind]

Really tempted to buy MSI but hate to buy on spikes like this so I'll pass.

[kslifka]

ACY...nice move.