SILC

[gix330]

well...David and yukii, both of you have some good points, but i still believe David's SOF strategy would work well before the market turns to bear.

Since last correction, naz went up 10% without any good corrections, so a pull back is very reasonable like what is happening now, other wise we wont be able to see next big gain, right?

let's take a look at weekly chart:
   1st UP wave = 1045 pts (2153 – 1108),
   2nd UP wave = 628 pts (2378 – 1750),

Therefore, the 3rd UP wave must be < 628, which stops at 2012 + 628 = 2640.
Summer correction like usual? anyway, i think currently Naz unlikely to break 2640 point. very strong resistance.

So David, you think i am right? and how long do you think this correction will last?

BTW...i can not find a place to post these things on the forum like the daily thread we had before!?

[la-onda]

nice link:
http://maya.tase.co.il/bursa/report.asp?report_cd=270616&CompCd=2107

not so nice chart  :

tomorrow will be interesting imho

[yukiii]

David ,
You still don't get it.
You keep talking long term 2 years . But I bet you won't hold any of these 2 years.
In fact you have sold like 27 companies year to date. If you keep saying longterm then you sell when they go down or someone brings something up you did not notice.
Why not admit its not long term. You say hold SILC till it hits $59 in 2 years.
Now you say sell at $19.00. It would have been wiser to sell $23 or $24 and move on.
You say hold GIGM to $53, but what will you say if next quarter is bad and it goes to $12.00, sell at $11. Better to sell at $16 like many did. You do not follow your own rules.
You are up $15% YTD  you should be much more, my fund FVL is up 20%ytd.

What you are doing is setting yourself up for failure.
By what you are saying sounds like you got it from a book on trading, Its easy to pick 15 companies and say hold them for 2 years  and make alot of money. If it was that easy everyone would do that.
Most likely 8 will go up and 6 down each year.

The portfolio as it stands let say someone wants to start from fresh today.
They buy SILC,TBSI, NVTL, SNDA, ICOC don't see the others worth buying here. Now let say they go
up 30% the next 3 months.
you have 3 choices
a) sell all 5 fully valued and invest in 5 new undervalued selections.
b) sell 1/2 of each one and buy 3 new undervalued selections.
c) wait for them to correct back to 15%

Which one would you choose?
(A) Would be the best from experience. When selling when they are fully valued you are protecting
yourself from losses from the correction of 15%. When you select 5 new selections that are undervalued and the market corrects you would only lose maybe 5%.
So instead of being a 15% waiting for the market to go up, you are now at 25% waiting for your next 30% up. Dont you agreed I hope.

I am down just under 1% the last 3 days. I was short yesterday, today I bought the market might go down somemore but who cares as long as I got good values at support. from my experience they will all go back up quickly.
You say why buy today, beacuse stocks have been going down the last 3 days. Look at Goldman Sachs GS down 10% Its a good buy. look at SIMO its down 10% look at PRFT down 18% from its high, all good buys. Why buy EDAC and SIF at there Highs don't understand?

[yukiii]

Time to buy guys just hit support on the S&P 500 1495

Bounced off support, let see if it holds. To bad Bill Gross had to make a comment and bring the market down again. He is usually wrong most of the time.
Closed at the 50 ma
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75293289261

MACD Hist looks bearish...this is the most reliable indicator i use...with success..mostly on weekly basis (elder was right thanks to his book i learned a lot there)

Pimco's Gross Says He's a Bond Bull in a Bear Market (Update1)
By Deborah Finestone

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said he continues to expect a ``mild bull market'' for the next year.

``We do like bond markets from this point forward for the next six months,'' Gross said in comments posted on the Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Web site today from a meeting of firm's fund managers in early May. ``But we do suggest in 2008, 2009 and 2010 that interest rates will be moving mildly higher.''

Gross reiterated that housing would slow the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the ``latter part of 2007.'' Pimco's $103 billion Total Return fund had trailed the performance of about three-quarters of comparable funds in the past year, in part because Gross stuck to his prediction that the Fed was either close to ending its cycle of 17 straight rate increases or about to lower borrowing costs.

Yields on benchmark 10-year note yield reached 5.13 percent today, the highest since July, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Global bond yields surged today after New Zealand unexpectedly raised interest rates.

Gross wasn't available to comment today, said Mark Porterfield, an spokesman for the Newport Beach, California-based firm. Pimco, which oversees about $668 billion, is a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz AG.

Global growth may ``exert some type of upward push in terms of inflation and ultimately in terms of interest rates,'' Gross said.

Interest Rate Forecast

Gross last month raised his forecast range for 10-year U.S. Treasury yields on concern inflation may quicken in countries with weakening currencies such as the U.S. Ten-year yields will probably range from 4 percent to 6.5 percent until 2011, he said. Gross had previously said the yield would fluctuate between 4 percent and 5.5 percent.

``After 25 years of being a bull market manager to all of a sudden become a bear market manager, although mildly so in terms of higher interest rates over the next three to five years, is sort of a major shift,'' he said. ``But I think it is a well- deserved shift.''

[Stocky2000]

I expect just a summer correction like last year 1-2 months...long term bullish....but it s good david puts a stop in now he has to protect his 15% gain of the 3sof portfolio.....in case of correction i expect all stocks to retrace 10-30% (who knows). ...if he is not protecting his porfolio it will probably go down to -/+ =0% this year. Then this long term talking, writing doesn t help much.
The problem is when new members arrive they just have to buy the stocks higher in the portfolio as they were not here when 3sof entered like silc was at 12 dollar...but they buy at 21 like some did and the risk increases. Mid term holding would be better as new members get chances to get in in other stocks much earlier...so a new member is a bit lost when he enters to high then....or he waits 2-3 months for the next pick..can he do this ?....and the name of the page is still "3 stocks on fire". In 2005 in the beginning we took more risks here and took gains earlier....i think the portfolio is to fat.....i would start again with 100 000.-. The head gets fresh again. I did the same took the gains to the bank...and restarted...felt good.

But i have to say i thank david i was learning a lot here in the last 2 years...about trading...so thats very positve. The whole story 3sof is still great.

a good trading day for all

ket

[yukiii]

Filed today

FORM F-3

REGISTRATION STATEMENT
UNDER
THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933

SILICOM LTD.
(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)


Calculation of Registration Fee

Title of Each Class of
Securities to be Registered    Amount to be Registered    Proposed Maximum Aggregate
Price Per Security    Proposed Maximum
Aggregate Offering Price    Amount of
Registration Fee
Ordinary Shares, par value NIS 0.01 per share (1)    1,104,687    $23.85(2)    $26,346,784    $808.85
Total                   $808.85

(1)    Represents (i) 875,000 ordinary shares of the Registrant presently outstanding and (ii) 229,687 ordinary shares issuable upon exercise of the Registrant's Warrants. Pursuant to Rule 416 of the Securities Act of 1933, this registration statement also includes an indeterminate number of shares that may be issued to prevent dilution from stock splits, stock dividends or similar transactions that could affect the shares to be offered by selling stockholders.

(2)    Estimated solely for the purpose of calculating the registration fee pursuant to Rule 457(c) of the Securities Act of 1933 on the basis of the average of the high and low prices, as reported on the Nasdaq Capital Market on June 4, 2007.

[stocky]

David ,
You still don't get it.
You keep talking long term 2 years . But I bet you won't hold any of these 2 years.
In fact you have sold like 27 companies year to date. If you keep saying longterm then you sell when they go down or someone brings something up you did not notice.
Why not admit its not long term. You say hold SILC till it hits $59 in 2 years.
Now you say sell at $19.00. It would have been wiser to sell $23 or $24 and move on.
You say hold GIGM to $53, but what will you say if next quarter is bad and it goes to $12.00, sell at $11. Better to sell at $16 like many did. You do not follow your own rules.
You are up $15% YTD  you should be much more, my fund FVL is up 20%ytd.

What you are doing is setting yourself up for failure.
By what you are saying sounds like you got it from a book on trading, Its easy to pick 15 companies and say hold them for 2 years  and make alot of money. If it was that easy everyone would do that.
Most likely 8 will go up and 6 down each year.

The portfolio as it stands let say someone wants to start from fresh today.
They buy SILC,TBSI, NVTL, SNDA, ICOC don't see the others worth buying here. Now let say they go
up 30% the next 3 months.
you have 3 choices
a) sell all 5 fully valued and invest in 5 new undervalued selections.
b) sell 1/2 of each one and buy 3 new undervalued selections.
c) wait for them to correct back to 15%

Which one would you choose?
(A) Would be the best from experience. When selling when they are fully valued you are protecting
yourself from losses from the correction of 15%. When you select 5 new selections that are undervalued and the market corrects you would only lose maybe 5%.
So instead of being a 15% waiting for the market to go up, you are now at 25% waiting for your next 30% up. Dont you agreed I hope.

I am down just under 1% the last 3 days. I was short yesterday, today I bought the market might go down somemore but who cares as long as I got good values at support. from my experience they will all go back up quickly.
You say why buy today, beacuse stocks have been going down the last 3 days. Look at Goldman Sachs GS down 10% Its a good buy. look at SIMO its down 10% look at PRFT down 18% from its high, all good buys. Why buy EDAC and SIF at there Highs don't understand?

I think yukii has raised some very valid points. My take is that David strategy is still evolving. But let me spin another suggestion. I think it may help if we have a single portfolio of 15 equal position stocks. Of them, 3 could be swing trades [ a week to a month holding time or certain target price], 3 could be short term trades of 3 month, another 3 with holding time of about 6 month and still another 3 with holding time of 12 months and the last 3 with holding time of 2 years.

But again I have full faith in David's picks. Though I do think that we should had AAPL and MVIS [the story stocks with catalyst] about few weeks back when the catalyst was known. But I hope there will be others.

Again when the portfolio takes beating all the criticsm starts flowing strongly. Taken positively and not panickly it may be great. Applaud yukii for speaking up his mind.

[yukiii]

Stocky
Not to sure we need a time period, and maybe 15 holdings.
We need some balance, some core holdings. Like Apple, Google, Att and GS , XTO (4)
Then some sector picks
Energy  (1) 
Metals   (1)  or Country Play
Value picks  (2)
Swing picks  (2)
Momentum picks  (2)
special situations  (2)
Something like this.
The 3sof missed out on the energy, mining and utilities and reit big rally this year. So we need to make sure we on in the right sector and caps small,mid and large.

Futures are up alot right now, hope we get my rally, since I jumped all in today with both feet.
All the analyst were on tv today saying sell market will go down another 15%, then you just have to buy

[Amarens]

Yukiii,

Think you're making some valid points too, but what I miss is that you let us in on your portfolio and the buying and selling desicions before hand on your picks.

Others have given critism, and indeed always when the 3SOF portfolio takes a beating, in the past but only few let us in on their 'better' strategies...  And I can't name a single one who did that over a longer period of time, giving regular updates.

If you would do that it would give your posts maybe more value. I know it would to me  !

Amarens

[dnickers]

Yukiii - Take David up on his offer - let him set you up a portfolio here on 3SoF.  What do you have to lose? 

[yukiii]

Yukiii - Take David up on his offer - let him set you up a portfolio here on 3SoF.  What do you have to lose? 

I don't have any problem with that....

[David Randolph]

Yukiii - Take David up on his offer - let him set you up a portfolio here on 3SoF.  What do you have to lose? 

I don't have any problem with that....

Cool, I'll have to talk to Ramsburg over the weekend so that he sets everything up and will sent you a private message to discuss the details of your more committed participation in 3Stocks.

Thank you.

[buddjas1]

HOLD SILC, unless the stock is set to close below $19, if that's the case, SELL (notice the slight change).

What?!?  Your entry point is $14 or so?  You have plenty of room to have strong hands and let this one run.  Have you forgot about the recent design wins that will be reflected in the next earnings release?  The time to sell was at $25; not $19.  $19 is the time to buy.  Don't let this one get away from you that cheap.

[berloga]

I agree it is a great idea for Yukiii to have his portfolio open here. He is an active participant, although at times too passionate, he sure will have a positive input.

I'd like to comment on the strategy discussion. There is no perfect strategy. There are too many variables in the market. The long term strategy is the best, but it is also the most difficult one to realize.

What David said earlier would be helpful (I rephrase): "buy with a long-term price evolution in mind given sound fundamental and technical trends. HOLD as long as the trends persist; HOLD through SOLELY technical corrections. SELL when you sense a change in fundamental setup or after the fact right away. Investors will take the srock unjustifiably low anyway. BUY again if the fundamental story BECOMES good again and the technicals point up".

I think this is something along lines what Yukiii has been trying to say and what David indirectly said himself! They just talk 2 different languages!!!

And to Stocky's point - I've been watching the bloody APPL and AMZN after their excellent catalysts on the market were made known! And I didn't buy 'cause all my money was in here. So I agree, we shouldn't neglect what market decides for us - just follow it.

[Terliso]

The problem is when new members arrive they just have to buy the stocks higher in the portfolio as they were not here when 3sof entered like silc was at 12 dollar...but they buy at 21 like some did and the risk increases. Mid term holding would be better as new members get chances to get in in other stocks much earlier...so a new member is a bit lost when he enters to high then....or he waits 2-3 months for the next pick..can he do this ?....and the name of the page is still "3 stocks on fire". In 2005 in the beginning we took more risks here and took gains earlier....

To stop the critisim, we should bring back the name of the game "The 3 Stocks On Fire Portfolio".... keep the Main Portfolio for long-term hold and let them follow who ever wants to follow it. 

C'mon! lets get 3SOF up and running... I bet a lot of subscribers will flow in.