SILC

[bourbonstreet_crawdaddy]

Thank You for your reassurance David.

I guess that I am just having a difficult time adjusting to our new strategy, and that I need to learn to have the discipline that is required to profit from it.

I am thankful that you have "strong hands", and continue to reiterate to all of the board members that what we are doing is the right thing, and that we will reap the rewards that we are seeking. Patience is the key - but is not easy to demonstrate from day to day, and week to week.

Have a terrific week David

Bourbon 

[Garoh]

I hope I'm wrong but this is what I see from a technical view :

I think this decline will end when we reach 17.70 to 17.90   
I could be wrong but I,ve seen  it in other stocks before ...
There's someone keep selling all the way down .....Who ? 

I still have the same point of view :

I sold half of my position after I've seen the news about selling 130,000 shares and when it broke 22.88 and I still see the price I mentioned which is 17.70 to 17.90 maybe this week ..

that would be my entry price of not I will wait until It close above 21.50 and buy back ....

This is a great stock .. I Invest and in the same time I daytrading  do I don't recommend to sell this stock as long as it a short time change ...

I still wish I'm wrong in my thoughts

We are very close to the target .....
The stock is oversold now and it should finish this drop at that price (17.70 to 17.90 ) 
I'm repeating this again and again and still wish it rebounds from these levels 

David keep the good work

[yukiii]

Why $17.80, I show next support at $16.87

[nicknite20]

Weekly MACD Bearish Cross, SILC is going for the support area possibly @ $16 or at $12 area.

-- price is now below 9sma weekly chart

Based on David's original decision to sell his position at 18.92, the action of the last week, your technical analysis, overall market correcting, and my gut feeling, I have decided to cut my losses in this stock an  I am out at $18.76.  I am a newbie in the stock market and I don't have the stomach to watch this drop anyone.   Like others I believe in this company and will look to re-enter at a lower price.  Good luck to everyone who decides to hold this  (I wish I could).

Im adding here..call me crazy..but now is the time to buy, not sell.

[eggman11]

Weekly MACD Bearish Cross, SILC is going for the support area possibly @ $16 or at $12 area.

-- price is now below 9sma weekly chart

Based on David's original decision to sell his position at 18.92, the action of the last week, your technical analysis, overall market correcting, and my gut feeling, I have decided to cut my losses in this stock an  I am out at $18.76.  I am a newbie in the stock market and I don't have the stomach to watch this drop anyone.   Like others I believe in this company and will look to re-enter at a lower price.  Good luck to everyone who decides to hold this  (I wish I could).

Im adding here..call me crazy..but now is the time to buy, not sell.

I am adding here as well. awaiting announcement of the next design win and/or earnings run-up. If SILC had the same PE as RVBD we would be over 50.

[Garoh]

Why $17.80, I show next support at $16.87

support and we probably close above 18.90 today ... If it closes above 18.90 today then 18.39 is the bottom if not then we'er going to my price 90%

No panic just wait for the rebound daytraders won't miss it 

[yukiii]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p44425796901

[David Randolph]

I am adding here as well. awaiting announcement of the next design win and/or earnings run-up. If SILC had the same PE as RVBD we would be over 50.

I agree with you eggman11, SILC's earnings multiple should expand some more, the growth rate and fat net profit margin should allow it. Technically the stock broke down below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, opening a small gap at the open, between $19.15 and $19.30.

I still see 2% dilution, 84% revenue CAGR, 25% net profit margin and 26.37 EPS multiple, and this will lead to a much higher share price over the long term. So, no reason to sell around current levels.

I'll keep holding SILC.

[Terliso]

SILC trendline 2, stands tomorrow @ $17.72, hopefully it holds so we can all buy.

[Garoh]

I hope I'm wrong but this is what I see from a technical view :

I think this decline will end when we reach 17.70 to 17.90   
I could be wrong but I,ve seen  it in other stocks before ...
There's someone keep selling all the way down .....Who ? 

I still have the same point of view :

I sold half of my position after I've seen the news about selling 130,000 shares and when it broke 22.88 and I still see the price I mentioned which is 17.70 to 17.90 maybe this week ..

that would be my entry price of not I will wait until It close above 21.50 and buy back ....

This is a great stock .. I Invest and in the same time I daytrading  do I don't recommend to sell this stock as long as it a short time change ...

I still wish I'm wrong in my thoughts

We are very close to the target .....
The stock is oversold now and it should finish this drop at that price (17.70 to 17.90 ) 
I'm repeating this again and again and still wish it rebounds from these levels 

David keep the good work

Thanks Terliso

This is the support which I've  talking about since  a week 

[David Randolph]

We got a bit of a relief bounce in SILC, closing a small gap that was left open yesterday.

Technically the stock is still short term bearish, it would have to close back above $19.40 or so to become short term bullish.

Fundamentally SILC had $0.22 EPS in Q1 2007. I believe it is reasonable to expect at least $1 EPS in full year 2007, so the stock is trading at roughly 19 times forward earnings. Other stocks in the same space (WAN optimization market) trade at 76 times estimated 2007 earnings, like RVBD.

SILC should enjoy a multiple expansion and breakout to new all time highs.

I'll keep holding SILC for the long term.

[Garoh]

It's showing some strenght even though a low volume .

[David Randolph]

It's showing some strenght even though a low volume .

Yes, the relief bounce continues.

I wrote the following comment over the previous update:

Technically the stock is still short term bearish, it would have to close back above $19.40 or so to become short term bullish.

SILC did it, albeit just barely, closing at $19.55. I'm curious to know if the short term (and perhaps long term) low was made, that would be a valuable experience, because I had a trailing stop at a close below $18.9 (would have been stopped at $18.65), but instead I've opted to hold, despite the technical breakdown.

Fundamentally nothing changed, I'll keep holding SILC. 

[David Randolph]

SILC's bounce continues, and the stock is now $1 above my original stop price. From the declining volume it doesn't look like the low was made, but that's really a poor way to forecast stock's movements.

One thing comes to my mind, the recent sell off from $24.3 to a low of $18.39 happened because an insider sold 130,000 of his 700,000 plus shares, and because an investment firm sold its entire position of 663,000 shares.

But Bjurman Barry & Associates, the firm that sold 663,000 of SILC's shares above $20, is no insider and also doesn't look like a long term investor in companies, take a look at their website:

http://www.bjurmanbarry.com/

They originally bought the position in December, 2006:



Awesome trade . But SILC was probably the best trade they made this year, because their microcap fund is underperforming the Russel 2000 Growth Index:



... and certainly underperforming the Main Portfolio, which is currently up 17.2% year to date, compared to 4.5% for the Bjurman, Barry Micro-Cap Growth Fund.

So, should I sell just because they sell? Just because they manage more money they know more than I do? Obviously not.

I'll keep holding SILC.

[nicknite20]

Hi David,
Have a general question, not specific to SILC.

I dont see a sectoral split / allocation in ur portflio. Do you also try to identify certain sectors which will be expected to perform well in the next 3-6 months?

For example, if you expect energy will be hot over the next 3-6 months, do you try to allocate say 30% of your portfolio towards that sector?
Nick