Session of 03/02/2007

[David Randolph]

Good morning

Since today is Friday I guess a random talk on the general market, strategies and individual stocks is warranted.

There are news out on FRPT that is moving the stock higher, but the news isn't really "new", they're just announcing they're meeting the production targets for orders that were previously disclosed.

Those orders are insufficient to justify the $1.1 B market cap, and nobody knows what the net profit margin of those sales is. I guess today's press release is another opportunity for the company to dilute shareholder's value some more.

So I'll continue holding FRPT short, as SIGM short and QID long.

Have a nice day

[rickjust]

hi
dell short?
amkr short? failure again at the 12dollar resistance
maxi

[tokyopua]

News on SIGM seems to have given it a slight boost, but like FRPT its not really specicfically new I think:

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


  Sigma Designs Inc. (SIGM) said Thursday that the Nasdaq Listing and Hearing
Review Council decided to review and stay a previous decision to allow the
company continued listing under certain conditions.

  According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the
listing council has also determined to stay any future decisions by the Nasdaq
Listing Qualifications Panel to suspend the company's shares from trading,
pending further review by the listing council.

  Sigma Design's continued listing on the exchange was based on the condition
that it submit additional information regarding its internal stock option
review by Jan. 24, and file delayed quarterly reports by March 14.

  The Milpitas, Calif., maker of silicon-based media processors said it has
until May 4, to submit any additional information it wants the listing council
to consider in its review.

  -Yogita Patel, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-1343; [email protected]


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  03-01-07 0843ET

  Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

08:43 030107

[David Randolph]

hi
dell short?
amkr short? failure again at the 12dollar resistance
maxi

DELL is too big to move a lot and the market will always have some hope/expectation that Michael Dell will be able to turn things around now that he's back. I don't think that is the best idea, but hey, I'm not having good ideas lately.

AMKR is one of the cheapest semiconductor stocks outthere, I wouldn't short that one.

Good luck

[David Randolph]

Yep, that negative news on SIGM was already out yesterday before the market open. Since it isn't new it had no material impact on the stock.

But thanks.

[David Randolph]

I wonder why INSM has been up lately and today, anybody knows?

Thanks

[2bun]

gm David,could you please have a look at MPET for me.It's an oil co. that's been strong through this mayhem

[soxguy]

David,I believe there has been another continuance for the up coming court proceedings, leading to speculation that a settlement is near. I guess this is good for insm.

[stock]

court date posponed on insm

[David Randolph]

By the way, for people that were not able to read it, I'm no longer a bull on gold or silver, at least not yet, as those metals continue to trade as commodities instead of alternative financial assets.

Since they're perceived as commodities they'll go down with the rest of the market as the global economy slows.

[David Randolph]

David,I believe there has been another continuance for the up coming court proceedings, leading to speculation that a settlement is near. I guess this is good for insm.

Hmm, ok, not a good enough reason for me. It may make the stock rise some more on a buy the rumor, sell the news type of trade, but fundamentals are weak and the company has been and will continue to dilute shareholder's value, as one can see here:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=insm&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr

(at Diluted Weighted Average Shares)

[stocky]

David, I am interested in your take on Real Estate. Here on West Coast everyone says its a bubble and prices will come down. But then it reminds me when everyone is on one side, markets usually proves them wrong. Quite frustrating if you want to buy your first house

[automountus]

Hi david, any thoughts about ANGN.

[2bun]

MPET at 6 month highs,MOVEING NOW @1.53 HOD

[David Randolph]

gm David,could you please have a look at MPET for me.It's an oil co. that's been strong through this mayhem

Sure 2 bun

You know I'm bearish on oil due to my forecast of a worldwide recession in late 2007 or 2008, but let me take a look at the specific elements of that company.

There's no long term trend as the stock traded sideways since inception in 1988. Over the short term there's some rebound from very oversold levels, I'm not sure if this is a bull trend or just a correction to the steep sell off that occurred in April/May 2006.

I like to buy the winners, and if MPET was a looser even with high oil prices, I'm afraid it will lose even more if $oil goes down to $40 or so. But maybe there's something intrinsically changing at the company, lets see.

- The market cap is just $61 M. The Company is engaged in the sale of oil and gas and the exploration for and development of oil and gas reserves.
- There has been dilution over the latest quarters, as the share count rose from 25.78 million in fiscal Q3 2006 to 41.5 million now. 
- The balance sheet is strong, with a current ratio of 7.7 and $29.4 M in cash
- Revenue has been rising a bit and the latest quarter was the strongest ever in revenue terms
- But the company lost a bit of money in calendar Q4 2006, more precisely, net income was, well, just ($8 K).

Maybe the explanation for the current rise is on the recent news, let's see:

• Magellan Announces Second Quarter Earnings

Yes, good news. I believe the market especially liked this part:

«The Company had $29.4 million of cash and marketable securities at December 31, 2006, compared to $22.4 million at December 31, 2005 and no long-term debt.»

The problem is, where did this money come from? From dilution !

It is a close call, but since the company is engaged in oil exploration and doesn't seem to have a meaningful net profit margin, since I believe oil will go down going forward, I'm afraid I'm bearish on the stock.

But I can be wrong, good luck