Session of 03/07/2007

[David Randolph]

I am sure there is some level of attempted manipulation by goverments of stock markets, but they cant stop the real forces of the market.  Otherwise wouldnt Bush have stopped the bear market that started in his early years as president?  Wouldnt all presidents simply manipulate the market up?  I dont know, I find that hard to swallow.  I doubt this market can be pinned up till election day 2008.  Better for them to let it drop till 2008 and have it roar back in 2008, assuming they had the power to do that.

I agree with Tokyopua, the market is just too BIIGGG for anyone to try to manipulate it, even for the President. Just the NYSE total market cap is $26 trillion dollars. The US economy is about half of that. No government can move it one way or another for more than a few days.

David, If you were to persue one or two bull case stocks based on an in depth study of the business model and industry, it would be a great deal of work, even over whelming for you. Could you assign a few volunteers from this group to each do a portion of the initial screening process? One idea would be to assign different aspects of the initial in depth fact gathering process, such as Industry, sub-industry, dilution and key ratios ,  insider activity or however you thought would be helpful.  If this were possible, you could then do a much quicker yes or no to doing further research.

We would all benefit from the learning experience and maybe even find that one in a million stock opportunity.

Yep, that could be a cool exercise, leveraging the power of the Community. I'll think about a way, a few tests you could make to find those outstanding winners. CPNE.OB looked like one of those ... but unfortunately it isn't, at least not with the current business model, since it is based on consumer's ignorance. 

[David Randolph]

I would avoid ZROS.OB for now, don't like companies selling $0 delivering great promises, even more so when they have just 1 employee

they have more than one employee

http://www.zerosones.com/company/team/default.aspx

Thanks for the information ket1390, my fundamental service wasn't updated. Good luck on that one, but beware with the negative book value.

Are you a beta tester of their software? It would be nice to have one review.

[gjramayya]

David,
I am a newbie ...and am learning a great deal looking at each of your analysis.

Just was wondering what it would take to reach with current rate of gains to go from 15K to 150K.

SOF has a gain > 50% in the past 2 months. If similar gains can be sustained than for a 10X gain, 47% gain every 2 months for a year would be 10.09.
1.47*1.47*1.47*1.47*1.47*.1.47=10.09

As a newbie, even if it can be done over the next 5 to 10 years is a GREAT GOAL !!!

But with David, SOF is on fast track.. that makes it very very exciting !!!

George

[Stocky2000]

Thanks for the information ket1390, my fundamental service wasn't updated. Good luck on that one, but beware with the negative book value.

Are you a beta tester of their software? It would be nice to have one review.

thanks david for the analyse...the big speculation here is expected to happen  at the end of march....i didnt test the software yet...maybe:)

The beta software module made available today is RocketStream Station, a Windows-compatible Peer-to-Peer module of the RocketStream software suite that enables accelerated point-to-point file transfers without the need for an interim server. The product will be commercially available near the end of the current quarter (Q1 2007), along with the release of two additional products: RocketStream Uplink -- a client-only version -- and RocketStream Server -- a multi-threaded server capable of handling many simultaneous transfers.

ket

[David Randolph]

David,
I am a newbie ...and am learning a great deal looking at each of your analysis.

Thanks, I'm learning a good deal too.

Just was wondering what it would take to reach with current rate of gains to go from 15K to 150K.

SOF has a gain > 50% in the past 2 months. If similar gains can be sustained than for a 10X gain, 47% gain every 2 months for a year would be 10.09.
1.47*1.47*1.47*1.47*1.47*.1.47=10.09

Actually it would be less than a year. The math you need to do to make that calculus is:

Current capital = $22,710
2 months rate of increase = 51%
Final goal = $150,000

$22,710*(1.51^X) = $150,000 <=> 1.51^X = 6.6 <=> .... hmmm, I stumbled here, can't quite remember how to solve this equation, any math expert in the house?

As a newbie, even if it can be done over the next 5 to 10 years is a GREAT GOAL !!!

But with David, SOF is on fast track.. that makes it very very exciting !!!

George

Well, thanks, but the thing will be very hard to pull out. It can't be done shorting stocks, because the maximum potential is 100% if the share price goes to zero, and it never does, or it takes a whole lot of time. Options could be a way, but the risk is so high it wouldn't be a long term sustainable strategy.

Maybe the finding of those outstanding, bear market proof stocks is the way. We'll keep working on that, keeping the dream alive

[buddjas1]

I heard Cramer try and explain it as though someone added an "extra zero" and instead of selling a million shares, they sold a billion.
It's the most absurd story I think I've ever heard.

Yah, especially when they would need to add three extra zeros (not just one) to get from a million to a billion.  Cramer knows that he will not have much of a show in a bear market.

[David Randolph]

The beta software module made available today is RocketStream Station, a Windows-compatible Peer-to-Peer module of the RocketStream software suite that enables accelerated point-to-point file transfers without the need for an interim server. The product will be commercially available near the end of the current quarter (Q1 2007), along with the release of two additional products: RocketStream Uplink -- a client-only version -- and RocketStream Server -- a multi-threaded server capable of handling many simultaneous transfers.

ket

Yes Ket, the problem is the market cap of $85 M already reflects all that. Moreover, the balance sheet shows liquidity is almost zero, and if the company has 6 or 7 employees, someone has to pay their salaries, guess who's going to be? People buying shares.

Anyway, I love software companies, and that software seems like a powerful tool. But is it worth $85 M before selling 1 copy? Hard to know, but I wouldn't bet on that.

[phabrux]

Dave

for this analyse, thanks for your "HEPH"

About shorting GOOG, I love the idea, just find the timing a bit early.
Your position is just a few days early to see the stock coming back to the 50ema level.

From watching different bearish charts, I notice that stocks have this tendencies to come back to the 5OEma level before falling back to news lows.

So I expect GOOG to do the same.
About derivatives, I am just wetting my feed,  so have to go gentle with it

Wish me good luck.

[dnickers]

$22,710*(1.51^X) = $150,000 <=> 1.51^X = 6.6 <=> .... hmmm, I stumbled here, can't quite remember how to solve this equation, any math expert in the house?

Take the natural log of both sides of the equation (ln):

ln(1.51^X)=ln(6.6)
x(ln1.51)=(ln6.6)
x=ln6.6/ln1.51
x=1.89/.41
x=4.6

So 2 months times 4.6 = 9.2 months.

(I think this is right...)

[AKgirl]

looking forward ..... uranium stocks ...  slx.au    jnn.v   txm.to    uuu.v  pxp.v

[David Randolph]

Dave

for this analyse, thanks for your "HEPH"

About shorting GOOG, I love the idea, just find the timing a bit early.
Your position is just a few days early to see the stock coming back to the 50ema level.

From watching different bearish charts, I notice that stocks have this tendencies to come back to the 5OEma level before falling back to news lows.

So I expect GOOG to do the same.
About derivatives, I am just wetting my feed,  so have to go gentle with it

Wish me good luck.

Good luck phabrux

You're right, I was early on my GOOG short. But you know I'm also short the stock, and there I don't have such timing problems as with put options (at least my put options). GOOG is just 2.2% above my short sale of 100 shares, so I don't have a problem with these short term fluctuations. Of course, I'm a fan of the company, but not a fan of the stock trading at 14 times revenues, since I expect revenues to go down or at least don't grow by much in 2007.

[tokyopua]

Looks like the bears snuck in during these last 20 minutes to attempt to take the market down to red numbers.  As I posted in the correction/bear market thread, I expected a basically flat day today.  Actually it would have been better for the bear case I think if the market was just up slightly on today and tomorrow, as the jobs number will likely create a distribution day on Friday.  As always, just have to wait and see.

[gjramayya]

Actually it would be less than a year. The math you need to do to make that calculus is:

Current capital = $22,710
2 months rate of increase = 51%
Final goal = $150,000

$22,710*(1.51^X) = $150,000 <=> 1.51^X = 6.6 <=> .... hmmm, I stumbled here, can't quite remember how to solve this equation, any math expert in the house?


Hello David,
The 47% gain was the minimum % gain required every 2 months
And assumption is a constant 2 month period over 1 year.

Using the actuals which is higher by 4%, the new calculation would be
1.51*1.46*1.46*1.46*46*1.46*1.46=10.02

Its interesting the ways we can look at numbers ...two different ways here are :
Either we can assume the same % growth to decrease the number of months to reach the goal in which case as you had mentioned it will be sooner. 9.2months from now it will be reached.
The second case would be to keep the number of months the same and change the future gains required based on actual performance. So in this case the minimum gain required is lower by 1% because of the SOF performance of 51% in the  first two months.

Again the key aspect w.r.t. these numbers is DAVID and SUSTAINED GROWTH !!


George

[David Randolph]

History repeated itself on HEPH, but this time it didn't caught me, I feel good

[Guloso]

Thanks for your feedback, David.

It is possible to short TUTR.  I have a short position. I am using IB.