Session of 03/08/2007

[eggman11]

I followed you on JADE David, sold my QID and bought JADE at 10.35$! Good luck to us!

I think david should of held QID and waited a little longer for enter JADE. JADE may move lower with the market which is showing some topping action.

That would be nice because those puts are falling so much they're killing the Fire Portfolio. Damn it, I'll never touch options or any other leveraged product again.

David I hope you don't swear off options totally, beacuse of this one bad experience. They could be a great way to increase the portfolio return as long as set certain rules in advance.

For Example:
Use no more than 10% of the portfolio
Buy with at least 2 months left until expiration.
Sell at least one month before expiration
No more than 2 open option positions at one time.

[nullzero]

Tempting to reshort FRPT. I covered yesterday at 15.00 but it looks like a good re entry maybe today or tomorrow.

[David Randolph]

Ok, let me calm down now. I'm in no hurry to make any more trades today. Have you ever heard that no man is big to people that are close to him? Ok, since I disclose all my strategy, thoughts and trades, you get to see some of my successes but also failures, some of them nasty mistakes like those put options entry.

I'm just a man learning this game the hard way as everybody else here (of course).

I see you have some analysis requests, but as I walked for a coffee a couple of hours ago, I began to think of all the books I read, trades I made and bull and bear markets I've gone through.

I thought that we should really start working as a team to find great long term picks, because the money is made in the big swings, not it trading for short term fluctuations. Of course, you might think you have the ability to outsmart the market making several in and out trades, but my take is the very short term, unless it is based on a fundamental market inefficiency, is unpredictable.

As I think of my way of covering stocks, that is, making a technical analysis looking for the trend direction of the share price, and a few fundamental tests using the financials of the company, are good ways of eliminating stocks, but not the best way to pick them. I should concentrate on investing based on the business perspective.

So, don't bring me stocks. Bring me business descriptions. I'll tell you if I believe that business has a great future or not. Anyway, keep posting the way you please as we search for inspiration from all sides.

Good luck on your trades

[WallStreetnBio]

I covered all my shorts. The dollar yen carry over is stronger and the asian markets will like that as well as our markets up. I followed dave on JADE and SILC. I also own SLV, CHL, EEM. I'm hurting with those puts so hopefully we can find some stocks on fire  

[Jim897]

David,

What do you think of SIMC, BPG, and ESST?

Jim

[nullzero]

Ok, let me calm down now. I'm in no hurry to make any more trades today. Have you ever heard that no man is big to people that are close to him? Ok, since I disclose all my strategy, thoughts and trades, you get to see some of my successes but also failures, some of them nasty mistakes like those put options entry.

I'm just a man learning this game the hard way as everybody else here (of course).

I see you have some analysis requests, but as I walked for a coffee a couple of hours ago, I began to think of all the books I read, trades I made and bull and bear markets I've gone through.

I thought that we should really start working as a team to find great long term picks, because the money is made in the big swings, not it trading for short term fluctuations. Of course, you might think you have the ability to outsmart the market making several in and out trades, but my take is the very short term, unless it is based on a fundamental market inefficiency, is unpredictable.

As I think of my way of covering stocks, that is, making a technical analysis looking for the trend direction of the share price, and a few fundamental tests using the financials of the company, are good ways of eliminating stocks, but not the best way to pick them. I should concentrate on investing based on the business perspective.

So, don't bring me stocks. Bring me business descriptions. I'll tell you if I believe that business has a great future or not. Anyway, keep posting the way you please as we search for inspiration from all sides.

Good luck on your trades

Hehe David go have fun with your wife  , you seem to be stressed out from the options. I believe we will continue the bear trend the last 3 days have been a teaser to suck in more longs. With the trend you should stick with your bearish outlook or give it more of a chance David (usually our first choice is always right, I cant count how many times I second doubted my first choice because of short term movement and lost in the bigger moves ). It seems this whipsaw market is teasing people on both sides of the trade.

[eggman11]

Ok, let me calm down now. I'm in no hurry to make any more trades today. Have you ever heard that no man is big to people that are close to him? Ok, since I disclose all my strategy, thoughts and trades, you get to see some of my successes but also failures, some of them nasty mistakes like those put options entry.

I'm just a man learning this game the hard way as everybody else here (of course).

I see you have some analysis requests, but as I walked for a coffee a couple of hours ago, I began to think of all the books I read, trades I made and bull and bear markets I've gone through.

I thought that we should really start working as a team to find great long term picks, because the money is made in the big swings, not it trading for short term fluctuations. Of course, you might think you have the ability to outsmart the market making several in and out trades, but my take is the very short term, unless it is based on a fundamental market inefficiency, is unpredictable.

As I think of my way of covering stocks, that is, making a technical analysis looking for the trend direction of the share price, and a few fundamental tests using the financials of the company, are good ways of eliminating stocks, but not the best way to pick them. I should concentrate on investing based on the business perspective.

So, don't bring me stocks. Bring me business descriptions. I'll tell you if I believe that business has a great future or not. Anyway, keep posting the way you please as we search for inspiration from all sides.

Good luck on your trades

I guess that means we are holding the puts until the end of session today.
GOOG has still not broken through yesterdays high and has another gap up today.
I think GOOG will at least retest the 450 market before breaking out, but I don't if it will be before next week.

[nullzero]

Im suprised to see how many people are now changing their minds and flip flopping on their outlook on the market from Bear to Bull in a matter of just 3 days of weak volume buying. Becareful those switching back and forth before you know it you will have missed all the big moves. Its interesting seeing the psychology of fellow traders and how easily they will change with the movements in the market. I am sticking with the bearish outlook because of the techincal and fundamental outlook. I have a on the ground view of how things are going down here in Southern California with the economy. I have many friends and family members in debt upto their ears and see first hand of the toll the slowing housing market has on the California economy.

[David Randolph]

Well nullzero, indeed, the market can go down, there are strong reasons for it (although I got suspicious when I saw too many people joining the bear camp too easily - usually reasons aren't that apparent when a Bear Market is coming).

I sold stocks short and bought puts and didn't like the feeling of it, even if it is a bear market. Why? Because market timing doesn't seem like a successful long term strategy to me. Livermore was a market timer, and he couldn't keep his money (even though he was a genius).

With the world being so big now, I wonder if there won't always be great growth companies to invest in, regardless of the business cycles. For example, here in Portugal, we've had and we're still in an economic depression. Yet, some stocks are at all time highs because of their unique business characteristics.

[nullzero]

The VIX turned bullish on my intraday chart I believe we are going to sink much lower heading into the close today.

[David Randolph]

I guess that means we are holding the puts until the end of session today.
GOOG has still not broken through yesterdays high and has another gap up today.
I think GOOG will at least retest the 450 market before breaking out, but I don't if it will be before next week.

No, those puts now are just 7.4% of the Fire Portfolio. I'm not going to sell them now, as both, GOOG and FMCN, can turn south on a dime. I'm still bearish on those two. I'll see if I get lucky. It would be one of the first times, since I'm not a lucky guy.

I'll keep holding those puts, the upside potential is now higher than the risk. But I won't forget the lesson, even if I'm lucky and get out with a not so ugly loss.

[ygtrdr]

Agreed nullzero. I'm not buying this rally for the time being. We may end up going higher from here but I would like to see how the day closes first. I'm content to sit in cash with SKK being my only short position for now.

[nullzero]

Well nullzero, indeed, the market can go down, there are strong reasons for it (although I got suspicious when I saw too many people joining the bear camp too easily - usually reasons aren't that apparent when a Bear Market is coming).

I sold stocks short and bought puts and didn't like the feeling of it, even if it is a bear market. Why? Because market timing doesn't seem like a successful long term strategy to me. Livermore was a market timer, and he couldn't keep his money (even though he was a genius).

With the world being so big now, I wonder if there won't always be great growing companies to invest in, regardless of the business cycles. For example, here in Portugal, we've had and we're still an economic depression. Yet, some stocks are at all time highs because of their unique business characteristics.

David I agree we must find the best of the bunch strong long term companies. However we should try to take full advantage of short to medium term trends if the supporting data is very strong for our position and we are confident that we are on the winning side.

[KCScott]

The VIX turned bullish on my intraday chart I believe we are going to sink much lower heading into the close today.

You are correct



I'll be adding to my QID

[Stocky2000]

i just shorted MA  at 102.00...technicals are bearish...MA50 broken now resistence...