Session of 03/08/2007

[nullzero]

I found a very interesting company with a very unique chart...

SYGR

"Synagro Technologies, Inc. engages in recycling biosolids and other organic residuals in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residuals Management Operations, Rail Transportation, and EFD. Residuals Management Operations segment offers residuals management services. Rail Transportation segment engages in the transfer and rail haul of materials in various states where the material is typically either land applied or landfill disposed. EFD segment engages in the construction management and start up operations of new processing facilities, as well as the marketing and sale of pellets and compost fertilizers. As of December 31, 2005, the company operated 6 heat-drying and pelletization facilities, 5 composting facilities, 3 incineration facilities, and 32 permanent and 40 mobile dewatering units. As of the same date, it served approximately 600 municipal and industrial water, and wastewater treatment accounts in the United States and the District of Columbia. Synagro Technologies was incorporated in 1986 as BMP Marketing, Inc. and changed its name to Synagro Technologies, Inc. in 1994. The company is based in Houston, Texas"

SYGR was immuned to the market downtrend and the chart shows huge buying volume back in January. Bullish looking chart, Not to mention it has a 7% yield divy! Looks like a good bearish market proof stock.

[nullzero]

I dont know why the market hasnt reacted bearishly to this.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070308/retail_sales.html?.v=11

"As merchants reported monthly sales results early Thursday, those with disappointing results included Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp. and plenty of apparel stores like Abercrombie & Fitch Co. High-end stores like Nordstrom Inc. continued their winning streak, underscoring that well-heeled consumers don't buy on need."

When Walmart is showing disappointing results that is not a good sign for consumer spending.

[Quasi]

SYGR was immuned to the market downtrend and the chart shows huge buying volume back in January. Bullish looking chart, Not to mention it has a 7% yield divy! Looks like a good bearish market proof stock.

Synagro Tech to be bought by Carlyle Group for $5.76 a share

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b67AD05D9-0839-4844-BAE6-01468DF82A1C%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Quasi

[eggman11]

David,

I have some concerns about Jade:
According to Yahoo
High amount of debt 43M vs. 10M in cash

Dilution

Shares outstanding Diluted
                    2005             2004             2003             2002
Basic          13,439           11,119           8,757           8,551                        
Diluted       14,322           12,107           9,706            8,551

And they already announced that there was more dilution in 2006. In their press release previewing the fourth quarter The did not file 2006 numbers

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4927676&Type=HTML

Also Jade is foreign company that does not report a 10K on a quartely basis. They will trade at lower valuation than their peers.

A little concern about SILC
SILC is also a foreign comapny that does not report a 10K on a quarterly basis.
SILC dilution is a lot better, but not great.
2001- 2005 the share count has been pretty stable, but
in 2006 (Basic not Diluted) it jumps almost 22% from 4,276 to 5,198 based on their 6K.

I know foreign companies will always look cheaper and a better value than their 10K filing peers, but they will always remain cheaper until or if they are fully reporting.  Do you take that into count in your analysis.

Thanks

[Quasi]

David,

You need to relax, step back a little and look at the big picture and that's what you're very good at.

I agree with your overall take on the market, maybe timing a little off, maybe not.  I started having the same feelings last fall and scaled back my exposure to about 50%  cash, now sitting at about 60%.  I'm not a daytrader so my views are more in the weeks and months range, like you have said before make money in the middle of the trend.  Don't try to catch bottoms or sell the absolute tops.

When I look at the major index's there was a critical event which caused major technical damage to the charts. (daily and weekly charts).  This will take some time to correct, we all expected a retrace after last Tuesday and that is whats happening, like you said "line in the sand" is the mid point of the first big red candle.  Well the last couple of days we stalled at the FIB  23.6% level, today the high so far is stalling right around the  38.2% level.  In order to just get up to the mid point of the big red candle we will need to get into the 50% to 62.8% retrace range.  There is a lot of overhead resistance and I think huge resistance to set new highs on the major index's  for quite some time.  For me last Tuesday really showed how fragile this house of cards really is, at this point.

In just a few days we seem to have all gone from Bulls to Bears to Not Sure to Bulls to Not Sure to HELP !!.  Well several weeks ago most of us watched the daily and weekly charts, now all of a sudden we seem to be making decisions base on the day to day 10 and 60 min charts and are becoming day traders, playing the momentum game.  Now that's OK if that's your game and you generally don't hold overnight (in this current market).  The market is in major whipsaw mode, not a good time and I will just sit it out, and I won't try to make long term trend predictions based on whats happening on the 10-60 minute chart, I'll leave that to the guys on CNBC.

For me there is no real overall trend right now and I'm waiting for the dust to settle, (but heavily leaning bear or at least more correction to come).  It's really had to make money all the time, (ie 10% every week, week after week), there are dry spells, I learned a long time ago that I should NOT try to push the markets during those dry spells as the risk is very elevated.  I always remember something that goes sort of like this, "When there is nothing to do, the best thing is to do nothing...",  might have been Buffet I think.

Bottom line David step back, re-focus and look at the bigger picture.  Not always a bad thing to wait for entries rather than trying to force them.

JMHO and subject to change without notice.

Hey Nullzero, agree with your great posts on the overall outlook, my feelings also.

Quasi

[eggman11]

David I hope you don't swear off options totally, beacuse of this one bad experience. They could be a great way to increase the portfolio return as long as set certain rules in advance.

For Example:
Use no more than 10% of the portfolio
Buy with at least 2 months left until expiration.
Sell at least one month before expiration
No more than 2 open option positions at one time.

Rules 1, 2 & 3 are mine too .. but why #4?  Why only 2 positions?  As a Gemini, I need several positions for each personality  
Seriously .. what is your reason for that limitation?  Thanks.

The only reason to just keep 2 positions open is strictly for the 3 stocks one fire portfolio and I believe by having only 2 positions (equal to 20% of the portfolio) in options is something David would be comfortable with. Maybe if his comfort level rises it could change.

[Quasi]

.....
BTW, free applaud to anyone who can give me that online realtime volume source for $spx, $dji, $ndx etc.  Even Yahoo didnt have it. 

Every thing is OK now, gotta like those pump and dumpers over at CNBC.

As for real time volume on index's, would be nice to have, I've also looked for it without any luck.  Also I don't really believe the numbers on Stockcharts even though the index price is real time I think the volume quoted is much further behind. 

The data feeders can track and calculate the price rather quickly but I don't think they are doing it accurately on the volume side, just too many underlying stocks in the index to keep track of, trading on so many different exchanges.

But if you find one be sure to inbox me with the details.

thanks
Quasi

[TraderStar]

Anyone like the looks of OVEN?  Moving nicely today on good volume.

[10001110101]

VII moved alot today. Iv been watching since Mrchina said something back on 8-2-07 last month and my!  It was on fire... 6.8 then up to 9 now today. Its been a day trading machine the past month up and down.. It could be over, what do you guys think. Way too late now...    Funny google shows the news that made the increase today but yahoo and MSN have yet to show it? could go up more but who knows, it already moved so much. Should have jumped in on 2-9 when it was at 7.65 but i bought GSS rather for a nice return when someone mentioned it (but it had to large of a cap for this fire section) Thanks KCScott   

This forum is great.. i think ill have to sign up sooner or later. Great suggestions and honest thoughts. Im a young mug learning the ropes. Thanks guys.

edit- news not new.. ha

[David Randolph]

David,

I have some concerns about Jade:
According to Yahoo
High amount of debt 43M vs. 10M in cash

Dilution

Shares outstanding Diluted
                     2005             2004             2003             2002
Basic          13,439           11,119           8,757           8,551                       
Diluted       14,322           12,107           9,706            8,551

And they already announced that there was more dilution in 2006. In their press release previewing the fourth quarter The did not file 2006 numbers

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4927676&Type=HTML

Also Jade is foreign company that does not report a 10K on a quartely basis. They will trade at lower valuation than their peers.

I share your concerns on JADE and wrote about them a few days ago. But I'm starting to wonder eggman11, if those two tests, that is, the evolution of the number of shares outstanding and the file/no file of 10 - Q forms are a sound tool to predict the long term movement of a stock.

I mean, if they grow from 40 to 100 and then to 1,000 or 10,000 stores, who cares about the past share count evolution or the file or no file of the form 10-Q?

What was the share count evolution of MSFT in 1991?

Trying to enter a deeper level here, questioning the strategy, learning more.

[nullzero]

SYGR was immuned to the market downtrend and the chart shows huge buying volume back in January. Bullish looking chart, Not to mention it has a 7% yield divy! Looks like a good bearish market proof stock.

Synagro Tech to be bought by Carlyle Group for $5.76 a share

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b67AD05D9-0839-4844-BAE6-01468DF82A1C%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Quasi

ah didnt see that in the news articles

[buddjas1]

Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

These are the questions we should be trying to answer, not if the market goes up or down today. I know, partially my fault, as I look for direction.

You could assign selected posters an industry or two to "cover".  There is no way any single one of us could analyze every stock on our own.  Combined, we may be able to do so.

Here is nice list of industries and the stocks associated with them:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

Say for example, I will cover the "Agricultural Chemicals" industry.

There are 30 or so stocks that are in that industry:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/112_cl_all.html

Over a weekend, I could analyze all 30 of those and find the 1 or 2 potential 10-baggers that perhaps deserve further scrutiny.

In fact, I'll do just that this weekend.

[eggman11]

David,

I have some concerns about Jade:
According to Yahoo
High amount of debt 43M vs. 10M in cash

Dilution

Shares outstanding Diluted
                     2005             2004             2003             2002
Basic          13,439           11,119           8,757           8,551                       
Diluted       14,322           12,107           9,706            8,551

And they already announced that there was more dilution in 2006. In their press release previewing the fourth quarter The did not file 2006 numbers

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4927676&Type=HTML

Also Jade is foreign company that does not report a 10K on a quartely basis. They will trade at lower valuation than their peers.

I share your concerns on JADE and wrote about them a few days ago. But I'm starting to wonder eggman11, if those two tests, that is, the evolution of the number of shares outstanding and the file/no file of 10 - Q forms are a sound tool to predict the long term movement of a stock.

I mean, if they grow from 40 to 100 and then to 1,000 or 10,000 stores, who cares about the past share count evolution or the file or no file of the form 10-Q?

What was the share count evolution of MSFT in 1991?

Trying to enter a deeper level here, questioning the strategy, learning more.

David

The past share count evolution is a sign the management won't hesitate to issue more shares they already announced that more shares were issues, we won't know how many until the file their 20-F. There also have negative operating cash flow. (I am guessing these shares we issued to fund their expansion) any insight into this would be appreciated.

About SILC,

As I mentioned before the share count was stable from 2001-2005 and then jumped up 22% this year. Do you know anything about this? I was think they made an acquistion or something, but I didn't see any news about this.

Thanks

[Quasi]

ah didnt see that in the news articles

Yes I pick up lots of charts like that one in some of my scans.  And I find that chart pattern almost always (98%) means a buyout.  So I just look at the date of the spike and check the news around that time.

Now if its a cash buyout the chart will be very flat and if stock buyout there will be some movement which follows the buyers stock price, but still usually with pretty low volatility.

Like your posts and agree with your longer term take on the market.  Not well right now and waiting for new trend to be confirmed.

Quasi

[David Randolph]

As for shorting from a strategic point, there are long term limitations to that game:

1) The maximum long term return expectancy is 99.99%, unless

2) One uses leverage.

Thinking of 1, that is a low long term rate of return. I mean, would you buy a stock you think it will give you 100% over a number of years in the best case scenario?

Thinking of 2, and buying puts is always a leveraged position (if it isn't leveraged it is the same of shorting the stock but with additional problems), leverage doesn't increase the long term return, because risk jumps a lot when one is using leverage (not to mention the way one's hands weaken).

Just trying to think about the big picture as Quasi recommended