Session of 03/08/2007

[David Randolph]

David, Sorry to jump all over this, but while I don't think OMNI will be a 10-bagger from here, it could easily be a double.  From this PR just released:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90

They are estimating earnings in excess of $40M from over $175M in revenue for 2007.

Their current OS shares are 17.5M plus 2.9M convertible:

OMNI currently has outstanding approximately 17,500,000 shares of common stock, with approximately an additional 2,950,000 to be issued upon conversion of OMNI's 9% Series C Convertible Preferred Stock.

Which means they have a forward P/E of 5!!!  I would find it very hard to believe that this stoock will not be trading above $15 in 6 months time.  Please have a look, I think this company represents some serious value.

You're not reading the news well ScottishTrader, the news says Net Income of $17 M, not $40 M (that's EBITDA). With 20,450,000 shares outstanding, the market cap is 20,450,000*$10.05 = $205,522,500, so the forward earnings multiple is $205,522,500/$17,000,000 = 12.1, not all that low when considering the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry average of 16 (trailing here).

I see the balance sheet is very weak and there has been dilution. I don't like it when small companies issue this type of speculative guidance, it looks like they're after our money.

Perhaps it will run to the upper end of the technical channel at $11.47, good luck

[nullzero]

Uranium plays are a great area to be in. I think thats what the main portfolio is missing. The higher oil prices go the more attractive uranium gets, energy will always be needed to power our cities and electronics. Not to mention electric cars and more massive eletric subways and transit systems will put huge demands on more electricty. No matter what the market does everyone will need electricity.

Here are some Uranium plays to look at

CCJ
USU
URZ
FRG

Also EXC and D if you want to be on the nuclear power side of the trade.

[nullzero]

NEW tanking again after the rebound into the 5s. Looks like they are indeed going bankrupt.

[ScottishTrader]

Fair enough. And thanks for having a look at it.  Maybe their estimates are not quite as exciting as I thought.  However, I still think OMNI will see a good run here, and should perform very well in 2007.  I see it as one of my long term holdings.

[tokyopua]

VIX getting jiggy with it... big white candles, things could get interesting here.  I actually want a strong close for the bear case IBD style yo, but the VIX might be saying otherwise...

[David Randolph]

anyone still interested in ACY? if you look at 30 minutes chart, it is bouncing from a support. This stock doesn't trade with market, a good one to play. I have just reentered the trade. It has a possibility to run back to $24.

I guess anything can happen since ACY is just a $33 M market cap, but the daily chart looks like it is making a top.

Why do you like it, just the chart? I would like to hear about its long term prospects, because being such a small cap with no dilution history, I mean, anything can happen.

[dnickers]

Does anybody else think GOOG is looking a little toppy here? I still think it can pull back to the 450 area, or hopefully at least to the 453 area its 10-day moving average.

I agree - plus, with that spike today GOOG closes the gap it left a week or two ago.  I think by mid next week GOOG will be back down to $440 or lower.

[WallStreetnBio]

I think we should look at the growing demand for broadband such as LVLT for example. I'm sure there are some small cap companies that are going to grow exponetially. You can now download movies on XBOX. Apple is coming out with a movie download box. Everything around us tells us there will be a bandwidth shortage but what will be the best play? I'm certaintly not an expert but I think its the right industry for a 10 bagger. I think SILC is a good start.

[nullzero]

VIX is running up fast time to short. The DOW intraday support is being tested. I think last hour and a half is going to be brutal. The bear is coming back  .

[tokyopua]

VIX getting jiggy with it... big white candles, things could get interesting here.  I actually want a strong close for the bear case IBD style yo, but the VIX might be saying otherwise...

[David Randolph]

In the case of a rapidly growing company, isn't it possible that the company could make a strategic decision to fund all or part of their growth through dilution? If they chose to do it that way,  conceivably it could result in less risk to investors, rather than more. The expansion has to be funded somehow, and by using dilution rather than borrowing, they avoid the problems of debt service and fluctuating interest rates. It would be different if the company is just funding operations with dilution.

Yes, that is possible. If they use the money from selling shares to grow revenues and profits at a higher rate than if they just kept growing using cash flow, shareholder's benefit from dilution. Some people don't call that dilution.

I say that everytime the share count rises (with the exception of a stock split) there's dilution, because the value of each share you hold declines, your shares represent less of the company. Now, if "less of the company" is worth more than "more of the company" because of the way the money is used, that's fine. We could call that "benign dilution"

[David Randolph]

Does anybody else think GOOG is looking a little toppy here? I still think it can pull back to the 450 area, or hopefully at least to the 453 area its 10-day moving average.

David,

With your new strategy, I hope you consider the including some options in the mix.
Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

P.S. Someone else asked this, but I did not see a response. Are you reseraching SILC as a potential 10-bagger and considering it for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio?

Thanks

GOOG closed the gap on the chart below and it sure looks weak. It has another gap opened between $445.5 and $447.38. IT may go down to close that gap over the next couple of days, that would be great.

Longer term, as you know, I believe the company will disappoint investors throughout 2007, because their business of online advertising is losing momentum, at best.

[Quasi]

...Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

Careful Eggman, I'm Canadian and might take that as an insult, LOL

Yes if you're looking at the Canadian Ventures Exchange pennies they are very much like OTC BB and Pink sheets in the USA, more lax standards.  However like I've said before I usually avoid those unless I do alot or reseach and then take the risk accordingly.

However with respect to the big board TSE, I totally disagree, their standards are just as high as the NYSE.

As always JMHO and subject  to change upon receiving new data at any time.

Here's my current watch list in the sector, most are on the TSE big board, couple on the Ventures and 3 on the NYSE.

AXU.TO CCO.TO FRG LAM.TO MGA.TO PDN.TO PNP.TO SXR.TO TEL.V UEX.TO UPC.V URZ USU

And yes for the most part many of the charts look very similar as most track the uranium price and spike up and down on any news of new shortages, like Cameco's mine flood and then again yesterday on the ERA mine flood &  declaring "force majeure" on their current sales contracts .  Haven't been able to find if ERA trades in the US.   Nullzero you know

Quasi

[makingmoney]

David, on ACY, here is my bull case:

1) in its most recent qtr, it made 35cents. there is no reason to believe they will make less in next 4 qtrs. because aircraft leases are long term and the income is stable. so at minimum, on a 15PE, it is a $21 stock. on 20PE, it is $28.

2) this is likely a good holding in a slow economy because the leases are long term.

[David Randolph]

David,

With your new strategy, I hope you consider the including some options in the mix.
Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

P.S. Someone else asked this, but I did not see a response. Are you reseraching SILC as a potential 10-bagger and considering it for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio?

Thanks

I forgot to reply this part. Options in the mix? I'm not sure, they're too risky, even using just a small part of capital. I'll think more about it, but I want to get away from leverage.

SILC for the Fire Portfolio? That could be interesting ... I still didn't have time to dig more about it, you're writing too many posts

But I'll do it now, don't expect posts from me for the next hour, see ya