NVTL

[buddjas1]

IEAM CEO is well known and respected guy. Long since $5.80

Really?  What do you know about him?

[David Randolph]

IEAM CEO is well known and respected guy. Long since $5.80

Really?  What do you know about him?

Hi buddjas1. I'm also curious about yukiii's response to this. Today I read some more stuff about IEAM. Don't judge me wrong, I want to buy the stock. Tell me one thing if you please, the CEO said Q2 or Q3 for the non cash charges to be gone?

There's some concern about internal controls that were expressed by auditors. Isn't it strange that they account convertible debentures as interest expense? That's what they're doing right? Yes, perhaps I'm starting to understand, for as long as they have convertible warrants & debentures outstanding they're accounting them as interest expense, so when all warrants are converted (just 2 million or so to go, right?) the EBITDA will almost all be net income, am I'm right?

Ooops, too many questions, sorry.

[nexta]

Hi David,

probably I don´t understand again.
By EU standards for financial reporting (IFRS):

EBITDA = operating profit/loss before tax + depreciations of fixed assets
Net Income = operating profit/loss + financial profit/loss - income tax
Interests expenses/incomes are in financial profit already, not in operating, and so interests incomes or losses don´t impact to EBITDA never.

Are US standards US GAAP another?

I think, it is right to book interest expenses into financial profit/loss. They should have importance to cash flow and net income, not for EBITDA.

May be, you was writting about something other and I could make chaos, please watch out my notes.

[buddjas1]

Tell me one thing if you please, the CEO said Q2 or Q3 for the non cash charges to be gone?

The CEO said that non-cash charges will be gone by June 30, 2007.  IEAM's fiscal year 2008 starts July 1.  So, today (May 3, 2007), IEAM is in Q4FY07.  I assume, therefore, that Q1 of FY08, which ends Sept. 30, 2007, will not have the non-cash charges.  November 15, 2007, may be the day that IEAM starts to run.

[David Randolph]

Interests expenses/incomes are in financial profit already, not in operating, and so interests incomes or losses don´t impact to EBITDA never.

Are US standards US GAAP another?

I think, it is right to book interest expenses into financial profit/loss. They should have importance to cash flow and net income, not for EBITDA.

Yes, interest income/expense doesn't impact EBITDA. What I wrote was:

so when all warrants are converted (just 2 million or so to go, right?) the EBITDA will almost all be net income, am I'm right?

What I meant to say was: "since interest expense will start being close to zero (the company says it is just about $200 K per quarter), Net Income will be similar to EBITDA"

The CEO said that non-cash charges will be gone by June 30, 2007.  IEAM's fiscal year 2008 starts July 1.  So, today (May 3, 2007), IEAM is in Q4FY07.  I assume, therefore, that Q1 of FY08, which ends Sept. 30, 2007, will not have the non-cash charges.  November 15, 2007, may be the day that IEAM starts to run.

Thanks buddjas1, it can be a somewhat long wait, that's why I talked about the "future catalyst" issue. You know how I've been burned before because of buying way before a future catalyst, like it happened in DIET for example. But IEAM is definitely worth keeping a close eye on. Good luck

[buddjas1]

Thanks buddjas1, it can be a somewhat long wait, that's why I talked about the "future catalyst" issue. You know how I've been burned before because of buying way before a future catalyst, like it happened in DIET for example. But IEAM is definitely worth keeping a close eye on. Good luck

I understand, but you run the risk that the market discovers IEAM (like Pike Capital did) before you buy.  I bet that we'll see a significant jump when IEAM posts $25 million in revenue for Q3 on May 15.

[yukiii]

IEAM CEO is well known and respected guy. Long since $5.80

Really?  What do you know about him?

John Mazzuto CEO of ILNP came from humble beginnings. He was born in Newark and grew up in East Orange, N.J., to an Italian immigrant mother and father born of Italian immigrants. Both were teachers, and Mazzuto attended Tabor Academy prep school on a scholarship, as well as Yale University, where he graduated in 1970 with a B.A. in history. Mazzuto also was an athlete, playing varsity baseball at Yale.
He's still close with his best friend on the team, Steve Greenberg, who went on to be president of Major League Baseball. His coach, Kenneth McKenzie, instantly remembers coaching "Jody" Mazzuto. "He was a shortstop, bats right, throws right," said McKenzie, one of the original New York Mets. "I remember one play when he fielded a ball and threw wide to first base. He hit the umpire right in the rear. That kept it from being a two base error."

"I had an erratic arm," Mazzuto explained.

If Mazzuto's aim wasn't always sharp, his head for finance has been. Chemical Bank hired Mazzuto straight out of Yale in 1971, and promoted him to Vice President by 1980. He became manager of a Chemical Bank business unit overseeing energy customers in 1981, and was managing director of corporate finance from 1985 to 1989.

In that role, he oversaw billion-dollar financing deals with corporate giants like Kaiser Aluminum. He also helped other Chemical clients with major debt restructuring deals. Mazzuto did quite well for himself as an investment banker at Chemical because of commissions on the deals he worked. So well in fact, rumor has it that he left because it became politically incorrect for an employee to make more than the chairman.

Mazzuto laughs at the story, saying it's more accurate that he left Chemical because "I was offered a contract I couldn't refuse by Asian Oceanic Group, a merchant banking firm . I was making a lot of money at Chemical - more than I ever dreamed and Asian Oceanic doubled the ante for a two-year deal". He headed the New York corporate finance operation and later became president of the New York subsidiary.

After leaving Asian Oceanic, Mazzuto became a legendary entrepreneur who made his fortune owning companies in the fields of insurance, textiles and computer software to name a few.

[nexta]

IEAM
aha ,OK, , thanks David

and 200K just now only?

Income Statement on yahoo.com

PERIOD ENDING      31-Dec-06   30-Sep-06   30-Jun-06   31-Mar-06

Interest Expense   4,096             1,830        1,742           2,242                        thousands
Net Income             (2,042)              986            216           (7,267)

May be, he has meant really callendar Q2 or Q3 2007.

[rickjust]

[keeping a close eye on. Good luck

I understand, but you run the risk that the market discovers IEAM (like Pike Capital did) before you buy.  I bet that we'll see a significant jump when IEAM posts $25 million in revenue for Q3 on May 15.
[/quote]


hi,
there can be no risk in not buying . that is just fear of missing out talking. you can never miss out .
there is always another opportunity in the market . always.
maxi

[la-onda]

ok guys let´s do our IEAM analysis on the IEAM board; I am a IEAM long term investor so don´t misunderstand me :
IEAM thread:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5889.150


Back to NVTL:
some insider selling:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1022652.htm
news update:
SkyCross Supplies Antenna for the Samsung BlackJack Smartphone
Thursday , May 03, 2007 14:28ET
SkyCross, a global wireless company providing antenna-centric RF solutions, announced that the Samsung BlackJack smartphone contains a SkyCross antenna.
SkyCross said that the BlackJack is one of many devices to use a SkyCross antenna to support next-generation services. Additional devices include the Novatel Wireless cards offered by Sprint and Verizon Wireless, as well as several Samsung and Pantech handsets marketed in Korea. "Customers recognize when a device offers the best in style and performance," said Dr. Chris Morton, CEO of SkyCross. "SkyCross works closely with device manufacturers to ensure that the overall RF system, including signal reception and battery life, is optimized all while offering an attractive exterior. We are happy to be part of another successful Samsung project."

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the information la-onda. That 15,000 shares sale by Slim Souissi isn't significant in my view.

I expect NVTL to raise or beat its internal guidance going forward. I'll keep holding NVTL, still cheap.

[David Randolph]

Ah NVTL, such a sure thing in my view. The company gave a "no growth" guidance and still the stock is attractive, look how it is being held up so high. This is because they previously gave this type of guidance and then they had to revise it upwards, two times in a row for the first quarter alone.

Do you have mobile internet in your computer? Do you want it, so you can take your computer from house to house, town to town, always with internet? I'm sure everybody wants mobile internet, but just 5% or so already have it. In fact, people want it so much that laptop manufacturers are starting to provide the cards needed to have mobile connectivity (pay attention because it is different from wireless) embedded with their computers.

NVTL is beating SWIR on their competitive battle. This is obvious from sales volumes and profit margins.

I'm not saying that NVTL will never be below $19 or $18 again. In fact, it would be perfectly natural for it to have a correction to the 50 days SMA, currently at $16. But it may also just continue to move up towards $30. In my view, the latter is the highest probability scenario, because the technical trend is bullish and there's only upside to the fundamental background.

I'll keep holding NVTL.

[David Randolph]

NVTL closed above $20 for the first time since late 2004, but fundamentals are much more attractive now than what they were back then. In 2004 revenues were $103 M which compares to $385 M expected for 2007. EPS was $0.48 in 2004 and for 2007 we'll most likely get at least $1 EPS. So, if NVTL were to be valued the same way it was valued in 2004, the stock would now be north of $40.

On my valuation model I have just 50% revenue CAGR expected for the next three years, but revenue growth in 2007 is expected to be at least 77%. Anyway, probably the growth rate will slow down in 2008 (analysts are expecting just 15% growth in 2008).

Unexpectedly for some people, NVTL continues to rise and I'll continue holding the stock. 

[David Randolph]

NVTL will participate in a Piper Jaffray conference tomorrow:

• Novatel Wireless to Present at the Piper Jaffray Semiconductor and Communications Conference
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

I'm not sure I'll be near a computer at 10:10, so if one or more of you could listen to the conference and post a few highlights here it would be great. I wish there will be a replay available, but there's no indication of it.

The CFO sold some shares yesterday, but we already learned we shouldn't give much weight to insider's selling, since almost all of the times the selling is not linked to the company's financial performance, but much more linked to the insider's personal needs or desires.

Technically the stock continues to consolidate recent gains. I'll keep on holding NVTL.

[David Randolph]

I'm not sure I'll be near a computer at 10:10, so if one or more of you could listen to the conference and post a few highlights here it would be great. I wish there will be a replay available, but there's no indication of it.

It seems nobody was able to post the highlights, but I found a link to the archived webcast.

It's a pity I couldn't find the slides, perhaps La-onda has them, he always gets those

Well, they didn't say anything new, here are the notes I took from the conference:

- Express cards accounted for $50 M of Q1 revenue, compared to $24 M in the previous quarter;
- They have 30 patents and 20 patents pending;
- 46% of revenue in Q1 was non PC products;
- They have cash of $3 per share ($91 M) and $61 M of top rated receivables, because their main clients are Sprint, Verizon, Dell, Sony, Vodafone, etc;
- They recently issued their first full year guidance because they have much better visibility now;
- In terms of "modems" going with the PC's (I believe they mean a peripheral that allows for mobile internet), in 2006 there were 6.2 million, a few months ago they were looking at 8.3 million in 2007 but now they see 9 million "modems" embedded with new PC sales (PC sales worldwide are expected to be 65 million units in 2007);
- As clients they have 11 carriers ( the main are Sprint, Verizon, Vodafone, T-Mobile, Telefonica), 9 OEMs (here they have Dell, Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, etc) and they currently sell in 38 countries;
- They have WiMax on their roadmap;
- "Modems" embedded with PC's are growing at a 492% CAGR. In 2007 9 million of 65 million new PC's are expected to have a mobile internet solution embedded. They're very excited about growth in this embedded market, as well as sales for existing PC's (for example, I bought one of their products for my old laptop);
- They have 50% of the US market;
- They're also excited about their new "Ovation" product, which is a Fixed/Mobile convergence product. Basically it works like this: you get one of those "Ovation" products, get into a room and get all computers connected between themselves and the internet, fixed or mobile. Not sure if I understood it right, but it seems like a true innovation;

This is what I got. I have nothing to change to the estimates I have on my valuation model for now, but I'm pretty sure they'll raise guidance or beat their own internal estimates by a wide margin. I'll continue holding NVTL.