ALDN

[David Randolph]

I have nothing to add to yesterday's update. I'll keep holding ALDN.

[David Randolph]

ALDN came off to touch the 50 days SMA ascending support:



Over the previous ALDN's advance phase, there were 9 of these touches and all presented great buying opportunities:



I'll keep holding ALDN.

[yukiii]

Below support, looks like its will go to $19.25 new support.

[David Randolph]

Below support, looks like its will go to $19.25 new support.

Yes, because of that CIBC downgrade, saying the Indian deal isn't all that significant, investors look at the chart and think: "this stock should go down to where it came from".

Of course, I disagree with that view, since I see the Indian deal as making annual revenues grow 30% instead of the historical 10% average, and given that my valuation model says the stock will be at $80 in late 2009.

I'll keep holding ALDN despite the short term weakness.

[David Randolph]

ALDN's chart doesn't look good, at least not for a short term trader. But I'm a strong believer in this company's products and fundamental trends, so I'll keep holding ALDN whatever happens.

[David Randolph]

Today was a very small day for ALDN, both in terms of price and volume. I'll keep holding the stock.

[yukiii]

support is $19.43 or so

[David Randolph]

support is $19.43 or so

10 cents below today's low, almost bullseye yukiii

Positive news out for ALDN today:

• India's Leading MSSP Selects Aladdin eSafe to Protect Against New Breed of Internet Threats
PR Newswire (Wed 11:30am)

The news is about the following product: eSafe SecureSurfing™ Services for Internet Service Providers

No specific details were disclosed.

ALDN is back above $20.41, which is a short term positive technical development. I'll continue holding ALDN.

[David Randolph]

ALDN has been playing around with the technical guys, making both a bullish and a bearish false technical signal. The stock is back into the trading channel.

Now we need fundamentals, primarily clarification on the Indian deal, for the stock to have another strong push up, in my view. The Indian deal details can be out any minute now.

I'll keep holding ALDN.

[David Randolph]

From the guidance ALDN gave in Q1 earnings release:



You see that the future is dependent on the financial details of the following press release:

• Aladdin Wins Deal to Supply Up to 3.8 Million Indian IT Students with eToken Authentication Keys
PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 4)

la-onda brought us this opinion from CIBC:

«Sources inform "Globes" that the CIITE contract is worth $38-57 million, assuming a price of $10-15 per student. Eyal says that India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy".
Eyal says, "We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by CIITE or passed on to the students, which we think may end up impacting on the adoption rate."»

Say the contract is worth something in the middle, like $47.5 M. Over three years, this means $15.8 M a year.

ALDN revenues are growing about 10% a year, that is, roughly $10 M. With $15.8 M more, they'll grow about 25% per year. What I have on my estimates is 30%.

Let me reduce my revenue CAGR estimate from 1.3 to 1.25 and see what happens:



The optimal selling price declined from $51.29 to $45.59.

I'll continue holding ALDN.

[David Randolph]

ALDN traded just 15,600 shares today. It was the lowest volume of the past three months. So there's nothing new from a technical standpoint. Also, no news out. I'll keep holding.

[David Randolph]

ALDN keeps working to fight software piracy, the following press release was just out:

• Aladdin Expands its Market-Leading Software DRM Solution to Support Embedded Systems
PR Newswire (Tue 6:30am)

[David Randolph]

ALDN keeps working to fight software piracy, the following press release was just out:

• Aladdin Expands its Market-Leading Software DRM Solution to Support Embedded Systems
PR Newswire (Tue 6:30am)

Yesterday's news had a bit of a positive effect on ALDN, as the stock keeps building a base for what I expect to be an advance phase. The really important news pending are the financial details of the Indian deal. I'll keep holding ALDN.

[Garoh]

6/20/2007 6:33:10 AM *Aladdin North America Appoints David Collins As VP Of Sales For Enterprise Security Solutions [ALDN]

News Just got out  . Who's David Collins ? 

[David Randolph]

6/20/2007 6:33:10 AM *Aladdin North America Appoints David Collins As VP Of Sales For Enterprise Security Solutions [ALDN]

News Just got out  . Who's David Collins ? 

hahaha, great question Garoh