JASO

[David Randolph]

I made the following video analysis for JASO and found it is a very attractive stock:

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If we compare the two model estimates for TSL and JASO, we can see that JASO, being a very similar company to TSL, is even more attractive, as stocky said the other day (and I would already be ahead 20% or so had I analyzed the stock and bought it immediately ):

TSL model:



JASO model:



Three of my estimates are equal for both companies, both have a dilution factor of 3%, an estimated net profit margin of 10% for 2009 and the same EPS multiple of 35.

The only difference is the revenue CAGR, since I have 2 for TSL (it means 100% annual growth) and 2.2 for JASO. Here's the explanation for this difference:



TSL is expected to grow 141% in 2007 and JASO is expected to grow 220% over the same period, to a higher final revenue number of $285 M. This according to both companies internal estimates.

Now, TSL is a $1.39 B market cap company, and JASO has a market cap of just $645 M. JASO should more than double just to catch up with TSL.

The model results give me an expected share price CAGR of 67.7% and an optimal selling price of $73.12 for JASO, so I have no doubts I want this stock.

The trading plan is:

Buy JASO, 6.66% of capital as always.

[Garoh]

Great pick David 

I was going to buy this one last week 

We can get it cheaper this week I guess

David I think we should look at the coal industry >>> cool activities are going on these days. It's growing !!  look at KALG

[soxguy]

Garoh,why do you think we can get this at a better price? It's up premarket.

[soxguy]

I guess that's the dillema. It's been running the last 2 days. DO you wait for the pull back or hold your nose and jump in?

[David Randolph]

I guess that's the dillema. It's been running the last 2 days. DO you wait for the pull back or hold your nose and jump in?

I'll jump in, because there's no scientific way to know if the stock will pullback or just keep on moving higher after the open. I focus on the main movement and ignore the short term fluctuations.

Fundamental anaysis says JASO is worth $73.12, considering current fundamental trends. Will you risk losing almost a $50 move to try to get in $1 below the current market price?

No way if you ask me. But good luck if you try it, I hope the stock pullsback a bit after the open so everybody gets in, as it doesn't get much closer to a sure thing than the situation we have on JASO.

[soxguy]

Looking at it that way,it's immaterial whether $25 OR $23 is the entry price. GLTA.

[Garoh]

I guess that's the dillema. It's been running the last 2 days. DO you wait for the pull back or hold your nose and jump in?

I'll jump in, because there's no scientific way to know if the stock will pullback or just keep on moving higher after the open. I focus on the main movement and ignore the short term fluctuations.

Fundamental anaysis says JASO is worth $73.12, considering current fundamental trends. Will you risk losing almost a $50 move to try to get in $1 below the current market price?

No way if you ask me. But good luck if you try it, I hope the stock pullsback a bit after the open so everybody gets in, as it doesn't get much closer to a sure thing than the situation we have on JASO.

David you'er right , It couldbe not possible to pullback and will miss the profits ...

It just works sometimes 

[David Randolph]

The problem with trying to predict a pullback to have a better entry price is if it actually happens. If it happens a few times in a row you'll get convinced that you can predict short term fluctuations and you'll become a short term trader, looking at quotes all the time, and ... years go by and as a short term trader you end up not making money at all, because you're gambling based on instincts, not investing in sound economic principles.

Just a thought ... anyway, JASO will perhaps pullback after the open, it may even go down 5 or 10% after I buy it, but that won't change my expectation of a 67.7% share price CAGR going forward.

Good luck

[Garoh]

The problem with trying to predict a pullback to have a better entry price is if it actually happens. If it happens a few times in a row you'll get convinced that you can predict short term fluctuations and you'll become a short term trader, looking at quotes all the time, and ... years go by and as a short term trader you end up not making money at all, because you're gambling based on instincts, not investing in sound economic principles.

Just a thought ... anyway, JASO will perhaps pullback after the open, it may even go down 5 or 10% after I buy it, but that won't change my expectation of a 67.7% share price CAGR going forward.

Good luck

Acually I'm not doing it for daytrading I'm just trying to get it cheaper If I could 

[David Randolph]

Acually I'm not doing it for daytrading I'm just trying to get it cheaper If I could   

Yes Garoh, but what makes you think you can do it, other than thinking that you can predict short term fluctuations?

I got in at $25.05, up 3.5% from yesterday's close, and I'm happy with it. I'll be happy even if JASO closes negative today, because I've opted to ignore short term fluctuations, so I can focus on what makes stocks move over the long term.

[DragonAMG]

Man I love this community... looks like another winner David!!!  I was fortunate enough to get all my shares pre-market (which I usually hate doing) pre $25

David - please don't forget to look at ASY

Keep up the good work my friend! 

[Garoh]

Acually I'm not doing it for daytrading I'm just trying to get it cheaper If I could   

Yes Garoh, but what makes you think you can do it, other than thinking that you can predict short term fluctuations?

I got in at $25.05, up 3.5% from yesterday's close, and I'm happy with it. I'll be happy even if JASO closes negative today, because I've opted to ignore short term fluctuations, so I can focus on what makes stocks move over the long term.

Good gain for both TSL and JASO  today ...

David I'm in at 27.10 

didn't want to miss move profits as these stocks moving up sharply ..

Also look at KALG  the one I mentioned today on TSL thread  it's up 8%
we should have one of the Coal related industry   

[la-onda]

awesome pick, awesome chart, applauds David 
(of course I have missed the entry )

[David Randolph]

Man I love this community... looks like another winner David!!!  I was fortunate enough to get all my shares pre-market (which I usually hate doing) pre $25

David - please don't forget to look at ASY

Keep up the good work my friend! 

Thanks dragonamg, I have ASY on my list for today.

Good gain for both TSL and JASO  today ...

David I'm in at 27.10

didn't want to miss move profits as these stocks moving up sharply ..

Also look at KALG  the one I mentioned today on TSL thread  it's up 8%
we should have one of the Coal related industry

See, you ended up getting in 8.2% above my entry price (which appeared to be really high at the time). My take is if you want to buy, buy! Do not pay attention to the possibility of a short term dip after you buy if you're doing it for sound long term reasons.

Of course, there will be times where a pullback will indeed occur and you could have bought the stock lower, but those times are more than compensated by the times where the stock just keeps on pushing higher, because, after all, that's the trend (or it should be, since you're buying).

Another issue on this is that many times, because you're looking to buy it cheaper and the stock denies you that possibility, you just opt to wait or not to look at it anymore, and the stock keeps on moving higher, leaving you outside of a huge bull run!

The time and effort lost looking for a few extra ticks is not worth it, it will even probably be prejudicial (I'm not talking to Garoh specifically, but in general).

awesome pick, awesome chart, applauds David 
(of course I have missed the entry )

Thanks la-onda, it's a pity you're not in, but, according to my valuation model, JASO is still a very attractive stock, and I would buy it again today without hesitation:



The model says JASO should only be sold above $73, and with the discount the stock is trading against TSL, I see it going for $50 in what, a couple of weeks?

Well, of course I'm not sure about this "couple of weeks" time frame, but one thing I'm certain: I'll keep holding JASO, long and strong!

[Se7en]

On the declining side, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. fell in the early session after CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst Jeff Osborne cut his rating on both stocks to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer."

"Both stocks are currently trading above our previous price targets at valuations that we do not see as defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers," wrote Osborne, who removed his target prices.

The analyst said he prefers shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. in the solar sector, and advised investors to lock in profits following a recent share price increase for Solarfun and JA Solar.

Shares of Suntech advanced 3 cents to their close at $36.25 on the NYSE in the premarket session. Solarfun Power gave up 82 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $16.86, after closing at $17.68 Monday on the Nasdaq. JA Solar Holdings dropped $1.35, or 4.8 percent, to $26.85 in the premarket session after winding up at $28.20 a day earlier on the Nasdaq.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2