JASO

[David Randolph]

On the declining side, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. fell in the early session after CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst Jeff Osborne cut his rating on both stocks to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer."

"Both stocks are currently trading above our previous price targets at valuations that we do not see as defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers," wrote Osborne, who removed his target prices.

The analyst said he prefers shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. in the solar sector, and advised investors to lock in profits following a recent share price increase for Solarfun and JA Solar.

Shares of Suntech advanced 3 cents to their close at $36.25 on the NYSE in the premarket session. Solarfun Power gave up 82 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $16.86, after closing at $17.68 Monday on the Nasdaq. JA Solar Holdings dropped $1.35, or 4.8 percent, to $26.85 in the premarket session after winding up at $28.20 a day earlier on the Nasdaq.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2

Ridiculous. Both JASO and SOLF are much more attractive than SPWR, especially JASO

Great buying opportunity if you ask me.

[tokyopua]

Just got some JASO at 25.75, glad I got a chance to buy at least some.  I will keep adding if it goes lower into the gap 

[Garoh]

On the declining side, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. fell in the early session after CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst Jeff Osborne cut his rating on both stocks to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer."

"Both stocks are currently trading above our previous price targets at valuations that we do not see as defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers," wrote Osborne, who removed his target prices.

The analyst said he prefers shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. in the solar sector, and advised investors to lock in profits following a recent share price increase for Solarfun and JA Solar.

Shares of Suntech advanced 3 cents to their close at $36.25 on the NYSE in the premarket session. Solarfun Power gave up 82 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $16.86, after closing at $17.68 Monday on the Nasdaq. JA Solar Holdings dropped $1.35, or 4.8 percent, to $26.85 in the premarket session after winding up at $28.20 a day earlier on the Nasdaq.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2

Ridiculous. Both JASO and SOLF are much more attractive than SPWR, especially JASO

Great buying opportunity if you ask me.

I added more at 25.65 today 

[David Randolph]

Instead of pulling back after yesterday's open, JASO did it today. It will probably close the gap at $24.2 and I couldn't care less, since my reasonably estimated valuation model tells me the stock is worth a lot more than  the current levels:



Today's hard sell off came on the wheels of an analyst downgrade (also the stock was up what, 47% in three days ):

• Sector Snap: Solar Cell Makers
AP (Tue 2:16pm)

It's funny how an analyst downgrade gets more traction if he has been bullish on the stock before and the stock had a nice run up. People accept the "lock in profits" recommendation way too easily, they welcome it, not knowing they're making a long term strategic mistake.

And the fundamental reasoning of the analyst can only make me laugh. So, solar photovoltaic cells are commodities, so one should sell their producers? I believe this is ridiculous. Even commodity producers, like copper mining stocks and oil stocks, for example, can be of great value and go up 10 fold, why shouldn't a solar PV cell producer go up 10 fold if its revenues and earnings go up 10 fold as it will probably happen, given the incredible worldwide demand for these products?

According to my valuation model JASO is the most attractive solar company outthere, and today's pullback doesn't change my view at all. I'll just sit tight and keep on holding JASO.

Here's some food for thought from Jesse Livermore, written more than 80 years ago:

«And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.

And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves because they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.»

[tokyopua]

Instead of pulling back after yesterday's open, JASO did it today. It will probably close the gap at $24.2 and I couldn't care less, since my reasonably estimated valuation model tells me the stock is worth a lot more than  the current levels:



Today's hard sell off came on the wheels of an analyst downgrade (also the stock was up what, 47% in three days ):

• Sector Snap: Solar Cell Makers
AP (Tue 2:16pm)

It's funny how an analyst downgrade gets more traction if he has been bullish on the stock before and the stock had a nice run up. People accept the "lock in profits" recommendation way too easily, they welcome it, not knowing they're making a long term strategic mistake.

And the fundamental reasoning of the analyst can only make me laugh. So, solar photovoltaic cells are commodities, so one should sell their producers? I believe this is ridiculous. Even commodity producers, like copper mining stocks and oil stocks, for example, can be of great value and go up 10 fold, why shouldn't a solar PV cell producer go up 10 fold if its revenues and earnings go up 10 fold as it will probably happen, given the incredible worldwide demand for these products?

According to my valuation model JASO is the most attractive solar company outthere, and today's pullback doesn't change my view at all. I'll just sit tight and keep on holding JASO.

Here's some food for thought from Jesse Livermore, written more than 80 years ago:

«And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.

And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves because they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.»

Another positive for solar going forward is something that Cramer will be talking about ALL WEEK on his show, what he calls the Green movement or something like that.  Apparently Massachusetts has sued the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) and won at the Supreme Court level, charing that the EPA is essentially not doing its job.  The ruling was apparently on April 2nd.  Made me think of picking up CECE again as Cramers contention is that anything "green" is going up over the next many years due to this ruling.  I always take Cramer with a grain of salt, but its clearly something special when he devotes a whole week of shows to it, I have never seen him do that.

[wxmang]

Guys, you have to check this out...
I am in love with David's research even more after I did my homework from MSN:

Ok.. So I was watching Jim Cramer's Mad Money today and he was pumping "FSLR."

So I took a peak on MSN's website and just checked out earnings alone for "FSLR" FY(12/08):
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Symbol=fslr
I get a Forward PE ratio of 72.5

Next, I looked at "TSL" Earnings alone for FY(12/08)
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Symbol=tsl
I get a Forward PE ratio of 18.1

Lastly, I looked at "JASO" Earnings alone for FY(12/08)
I get a Forward PE ratio of 19

Now I know I am just looking at Earnings and not factoring the other revs/growth/dilution/etc.
But, lets just say for kicks that TSL AND JASO's earnings will grow at the same rate as FSLR and the the other factors (ie: revs/growth/dilution/etc.) are the same as "FSLR"

Well, shouldn't the stock prices look this:

TSL= FSLR'S Forward PE OF 72.5 Multiplied by TSL'S (12/08) Earnings 0f $3.42 =
$248 Per Share

JASO = FSLR'S Forward PE OF 72.5 Multiplied by JASO'S (12/08) Earnings 0f $1.31 =
$95 Per Share 

I know I am not an expert, but it looks to me like TSL and JASO are going to be monsters as David says.
They seem extremely Undervalued.
They almost seem like they should be a "10" on the "3SOF" ratings.
What would make a "10" rating?

Cramer absolutely hates China stocks and I think that is a big PLUS for us.
Why the heck would we overpay for FSLR when you can own TSL and JASO for a Huge discount?

One last thing, the U.S. dollar looks as if it is falling off of a cliff.
Once again, I am not an expert, but that would be another big PLUS for owning TSL and JASO rather than FSLR.

Please let me know if I am dreaming up the above or if I am on to something, guys 


Wxmang

[tokyopua]

An article from a few weeks ago

----------------

JA Solar gives sunny outlook
By Ann Steffora Mutschler, Senior Editor -- Electronic News, 3/30/2007
Hebei, China-based monocrystalline solar cell manufacturer JA Solar Holdings
Co. Ltd. today reported revenues for its Q4 ended December 31, 2006 of $44.8
million (349.4 million China Yuan Renminbi), compared to revenues of nil for
Q4 2005, and $31.8 million (248 million RMB) in Q3 2006.

Net income available to ordinary shareholders for Q4 2006 was $8.57 million
(66.86 million RMB) compared to a net loss of $180,000 (1.44 million RMB)
for Q4 2005, and net income of $530,000 (4.14 million RMB) for Q3 2006.

Q4 2006 basic and diluted earnings per ADS were 32 cents (2.51 RMB) and 31
cents (2.45 RMB), respectively. Each ADS represents three ordinary shares.

Q4 2006 included share-based compensation expense of $210,000 (1.65 million
RMB), or less than one cent (0.055 RMB) per diluted ADS.

Revenues for the full year 2006 were $89.2 million (696.5 million RMB),
compared to revenues of nil for the period from inception on May 18, 2005 to
December 31, 2005.

Net income available to ordinary shareholders for the full year 2006 was
$11.1 million (86.4 million RMB), compared to a net loss of $400,000 (3.11
million RMB), for the period from inception on May 18, 2005 to December 31,
2005.

For the full year 2006, basic and diluted earnings per ADS were 41 cents
(3.24 RMB) and 41 cents (3.23 RMB), respectively.

The full year 2006 included share-based compensation expense of $2.33
million (18.18 million RMB), or 9 cents (0.68 RMB) per diluted ADS. Diluted
earnings per ADS calculations for the full year 2006 were based on 26.72
million weighted average number of ADSs outstanding, compared to 26.67
million ADSs in the year ago period.

Samuel Yang, CEO of JA Solar said in a statement, ³We continue to build on
the substantial momentum in our business. We are successfully establishing
JA Solar as one of the world's premier solar cell brands. Our recent initial
public offering was very well received and a benchmark event. We now have
adequate funding in place to secure the high-quality silicon supply critical
to our growth. We brought 75MW of production online as planned in 2006. We
are on track to more than double that, with the planned addition of another
100MW in 2007 as we continue to execute on our growth plan by meeting the
cell needs of our customers worldwide.²

Further, Herman Zhao, CFO for JA Solar noted, ³At this time, we have 100
percent of our silicon wafer supply contractually secured for 2007. We are
carefully managing all aspects of our growth. We continue to leverage our
purchasing scale and long-term supply and purchase agreements. We are also
seeking increased operational efficiencies where possible, as we work to
maintain a stable gross margin level.²

In February, the company completed its IPO, generating net proceeds of
$209.1 million, net of listing expenses. The underwriters exercised their
over-allotment option for the purchase of additional ADSs, generating net
proceeds of $31.4 million. The company says it intends to use the proceeds
to purchase raw materials, to expand its existing production capacity, to
repay its short-term debt obligations, to enhance its research and
development capabilities and for general working capital purposes. Upon the
consummation of the IPO in February, all of the company¹s outstanding
6,520,000 Series A preference shares were automatically converted into
6,520,000 ordinary shares

Based on current market conditions and customer forecasts, JA Solar expects
production for 2007 to be approximately 100MW, resulting in revenues for the
full year in the range of approximately $280 to $290 million (2.1 to 2.2
billion RMB), with a gross margin expected to be approximately 19.5 percent.

For its Q1, the company expects revenue to be in the range of $39 to $41
million (301 to 317 million RMB), with gross margin expected to be
approximately 21 percent.

The company also said it expects its share based compensation for Q1 to be
approximately $240,000 (1.87 million RMB), or less than one cent (0.05 RMB)
per diluted ADS.

Last week, the company said that it plans to install four additional solar
cell production lines on its existing Ningjin site in Hebei, China, with
each line to have a manufacturing capacity of 25-megawatts (MW) per year,
with the four new lines running at full commercial production and yield
targets by the end of Q3, bringing the company's total manufacturing
capacity to 175MW per year, when added together with its three existing 25MW
solar cell production lines.

[ravenquork]

Another positive for solar going forward is something that Cramer will be talking about ALL WEEK on his show, what he calls the Green movement or something like that.  Apparently Massachusetts has sued the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) and won at the Supreme Court level, charing that the EPA is essentially not doing its job.  The ruling was apparently on April 2nd.  Made me think of picking up CECE again as Cramers contention is that anything "green" is going up over the next many years due to this ruling.  I always take Cramer with a grain of salt, but its clearly something special when he devotes a whole week of shows to it, I have never seen him do that.

Here is a link to NY Times synopsis 

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00610FA34540C708CDDAD0894DF404482

"DISPLAYING ABSTRACT - Supreme Court rules that Environmental Protection Agency has authority to regulate heat-trapping gases in automobile emissions and that agency cannot sidestep its authority to regulate greenhouse gases that contribute to global climate change unless it provides scientific basis for its refusal;..."

What this means is that the EPA not only can, but must regulate greenhouse gas  (CO₂ emissions.  Smoke stack emission, gas and diesel burning cars and trucks, efficiency of any electrical device, are just a few of the items on the table. They have always had the mandate to regulate polluting gases, the difference now is that for the first time CO₂ must be regulated to the point of mitigating global warming, based on science. They may be slow in the near term, but after the Nov 08 elections they will be forced to act aggressively. 

Solar cells, nuclear reactors and plug in Electric Vehicles in every garage! 

While writing this, a thought popped into my head.
Obviously Solar will benefit on the production side but on the consumption side there may be opportunities for companies that can provide low cost high efficiency motors and such.  There is a thread on this board about RZ (Raser) that has proven technology that can provide somewhere around 35% increase in efficiency in AC motor/controller systems. Might be something to put on the radar.

[nullzero]

Solar cells, nuclear reactors and plug in Electric Vehicles in every garage!

That is exactly how I see the future +20 years from now. I believe everything will be electric plug in vehicles powered by nuclear+solar power.

[la-onda]

just FYI

CIBC WORLD DOWNGRADES JASO, SOLF TO SECTOR PERFORM FROM SECTOR OUTPERFORM
S&P Marketscope -

CIBC WORLD DOWNGRADES JASO, SOLF TO SECTOR PERFORM FROM SECTOR OUTPERFORM

Analyst Jeff Osborne tells salesforce recent share price gains sent JASO, SOLF above his respective targets of $22, $16, toward valuation levels he doesn't consider defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers... As result, downgrades both stocks, advises investors to lock in profits... Meanwhile, ups EPS ests for JASO to $0.99 from $0.97 for '07, to $1.47 from $1.38 for '08 following news from JingLong Group, its main wafer supplier, that group will be receiving additional supply from Hemlock... Notes, however, he believes EPS hikes are baked into JASO stock.|

[tokyopua]

Thisi is cool, JASO will ring the Nasdaq opening bell tomorrow, definitely will build awareness of this company 

--------------
JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (JASO) Chief Executive Officer to Ring the NASDAQ Stock Market Opening Bell

Apr 18, 2007 10:41:27 (ET)



ADVISORY, Apr 18, 2007 (PrimeNewswire via COMTEX) --



What:
Samuel Yang, Chief Executive Officer of JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd.
(JASO), will preside over the opening bell.

Where:
NASDAQ MarketSite - 4 Times Square - 43rd & Broadway - Broadcast Studio

When:
Thursday, April 19, 2007 at 9:30 a.m. ET

Contacts:
David Pasquale, EVP
The Ruth Group
646-536-7006; mobile 917-921-8031
[email protected]

NASDAQ MarketSite:
Jolene Libretto; 646.441.5220; mobile - 347.219.9539
[email protected]



Feed Information:

The opening bell is available from 9:20 a.m. to 9:35 a.m. on uplink IA6 C band / transponder 24, downlink frequency 4180 horizontal. The feed can also be found on Waterfront fiber 1623. If you have any questions, please contact Jolene Libretto at (646) 441-5220.

Radio Feed:

An audio transmission of the opening bell is also available from 9:20 a.m. to 9:35 a.m. on uplink IA6 C band / transponder 24, downlink frequency 4180 horizontal. The feed can be found on Waterfront fiber 1623 as well.

Webcast:

A live webcast of the NASDAQ Opening Bell will be available at: http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/marketsite_about.stm .

Photos:

To obtain a hi-resolution photograph of the Market Open, please go to http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/marketsite_events.stm and click on the market open of your choice.

About JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (JASO):

This news release was distributed by PrimeNewswire, www.primenewswire.com

SOURCE: The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. is a fast-growing manufacturer of high-performance solar cells. Based in China, we continue to bridge the gap between financial feasibility and environmental awareness. Our professional, open-minded management team focuses on long-term development in the international solar industry. Innovation, cooperation and integrity are the core values present in the JA Solar philosophy.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for posting the following news Tokyopua:

• JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (JASO) Chief Executive Officer to Ring the NASDAQ Stock Market Opening Bell
PrimeNewswire (Wed 10:41am)

Of course, the news doesn't change the value of the company, but as you say, it may bring more awareness to this undervalued and extremely fast growing Chinese company involved in the solar market. I enjoyed the business description JASO gave:

«JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. is a fast-growing manufacturer of high-performance solar cells. Based in China, we continue to bridge the gap between financial feasibility and environmental awareness. Our professional, open-minded management team focuses on long-term development in the international solar industry. Innovation, cooperation and integrity are the core values present in the JA Solar philosophy.»

My valuation model says JASO should only be sold at $73.08, given my current estimates, so I'll keep on holding the stock.

[Garoh]

looks like the chinese stocks getting a hard hit today 

Chinese Economy grew 11% this time and investors are worry of big slow in economy growth next time !!

[tokyopua]

looks like the chinese stocks getting a hard hit today 

Chinese Economy grew 11% this time and investors are worry of big slow in economy growth next time !!

There are people on CNBC saying this will spark a few days of selloff, but we are still in the early innings of growth in China.  Looks like their market has far to go still, even if their government will have to battle inflation.

[David Randolph]

looks like the chinese stocks getting a hard hit today 

Chinese Economy grew 11% this time and investors are worry of big slow in economy growth next time !!

The market never dances twice with the same partner. Stocks will probably close higher today.