JAKK

[JKN]

FYI From Financial Times 

Britney's not as toxic as you might think
By James Altucher FT.com, 03:35 BST Sep 25, 2007

I was a sore loser when I was younger. This is going to sound a bit geeky but when I was in 11th grade and playing a game of chess for the honour of my high school against the head of the chess team from a neighbouring school, I lost the game and was very upset about it. In one motion with my arm I knocked all the pieces to the floor.

It gets worse. I didn't go back to school the next day or the day after that. I don't even think I went back for the whole next week. It was a sickness.
I would hide outside until I could hear both my parents' cars leave the driveway for work, then I'd take the bus into Princeton and meet John Nash to play some chess. Remember the film, A Beautiful Mind, about a brilliant economist (played eloquently by Russell Crowe) who then, very sadly, went crazy?
Well, this John Nash wasn't him. It was his son. He had just received his PhD in mathematics and was very much like his father in a lot of ways. He was living at home and we'd get together and play chess when I cut school. He was a strong, master-level player who would tend to get nervous in tournaments and obsessively stroke his unkempt beard.
I couldn't bear the thought of going back to school. In my mind I was labelled a loser even though nobody but me and my opponent really cared about the outcome of that game. But as human beings we tend to instinctively attempt to rank and label ourselves in some way. So when I was in high school I identified myself as a "strong chess player" and anything that got in the way of that made me feel less worthy of myself. You can imagine the number of girls who were attracted to me when I so labelled myself.
Much later, it wasn't the number of chess games I won or lost that I used to establish my self-worth, but money gained or lost. There were only two situations I found myself in – "not having any money" and "not having enough money". Neither is good.
Not having any money means a lack of freedom. While the desire for anything (including freedom) creates suffering, not having any money at all means you have to be enormously creative to get out from under the whims of those who have no creativity.
In spite of personal finance television shows, books and articles, the elusive "number" one needs remains just that. And it's the quest for more that could trigger the conclusion of a life lived without consequence when lying on one's deathbed.
This brings me to Britney Spears. I have never listened to her music. Nor have I seen her dance, including at the famous VMA awards (nor do I know what "VMA" stands for). I read Page 6, though, and follow her story and its very intimate details. Once I read a profile that suggested she was a brilliant businesswoman and manager of her own brand, a task she has let slide lately. But we can forgive her because she is 24 and we all remember what that was like.
I stood on Wall Street the other day doing a project for thestreet.com. I asked passers-by: "Britney, buy or sell?" and the most common answer was "sell". So this young beautiful thing, this lost girl who sings "Gimme More" was consequential enough to inspire a flight of liquidity into – what? – more inspired personal brands?
When everyone says "sell", we know it's time to buy. This suggests some stocks.
Skechers – Britney is a celebrity endorser for Skechers footwear and I'm personally excited about their "Cali gear" line, which is similar to Crocs.
Jakks Pacific makes a Britney doll. The company trades for less than five times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation and will have a strong run into Christmas on the heels of the problems facing Mattel.Elizabeth Arden makes a Britney fragrance as well as perfumes for other celebrities. At 10 times ebitda and with analysts steadily upping estimates, I think the company is poised for an upside surprise at its next earnings report. I would place the bet now, since it's relatively safe at this multiple.
Pepsi – Britney is a celebrity endorser for Pepsi. Sugared water doesn't go out of fashion in a recession. And with a 2 per cent dividend and growing foreign sales, it's hard to find a safer bet.
And, of course, Sony, which puts out Britney's single "Gimme More". With 100 per cent earnings growth over the past year, I think this will be the ringleader of the Britney snapback rally.
When I wake up, the twin demons of fear of loss and angst over self-worth try to guide my day. And every now and then I still knock over the chess pieces when I lose. But if I'd never done that I wouldn't have had any material for this fantastic column – if I say so myself.
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[berloga]

Isn't the SMA50 crossing the SMA200 forming a Golden Cross?

[BigSully1]

Isn't the SMA50 crossing the SMA200 forming a Golden Cross?

I think it's behaving  bullish and will likely breakout soon? I've got a full position now.

[David Randolph]

Isn't the SMA50 crossing the SMA200 forming a Golden Cross?

I think it was Terliso who invented the name, so you should ask him, but I think he calls the "golden cross" when the 50 days crosses above the 200 days, and not when the 50 goes below the 200, which was what was happening on JAKK (not if the stock closes where it is now).

I wonder who were the suckers selling JAKK down 4.6% yesterday (oops, I shouldn't say this, I'm the one who's losing 10% on the stock), JAKK is up 4.5% today.

[BigSully1]

Isn't the SMA50 crossing the SMA200 forming a Golden Cross?

I think it's behaving  bullish and will likely breakout soon? I've got a full position now.

lLooks like we are going to get a nice big engulfing candle, completely swallowing up the previous 3 days red candles. Looks ready to burst at the seams, IMO.

[David Randolph]

That's a beautiful article JKN, this market is so inefficient that someone has to write on the Financial Times a stock is attractive for it to rise.

JAKK has been active on the press release machine, here are two of them:

• Care Bears(TM) Celebrate 25th Anniversary in New York City
Business Wire (Tue 7:30am)

• Nickelodeon & Viacom Consumer Products Awards Neopets Master Toy License to JAKKS Pacific
Business Wire (Wed 6:00am)

5.9 million unique users per month on www.neopets.com is big! I guess JAKK's management was outraged by the market's reaction to the 2nd quarter results and thinks it had something to do with the communication it has with investors or something. They also probably don't enjoy the way the company is valued, at 10 times earnings, and probably know it is because of the litigation with WWE, so they're doing everything they can to diversify their business and show us their actions.

Anyway, the big news of the day for JAKK is that BigSully1 is now an investor in the stock. This should be enough to push it towards $30 and beyond.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

(just one more thing: the "technical guys" who sold on Monday because of the 50 days SMA resistance should be buying today, to be coherent, since the stock closed above the 50 days SMA - just until the next reliable (only in their minds) technical signal).

[David Randolph]

Nice push up from JAKK yesterday, on volume above average. The way I see the chart evolving, the $28 level will act as a resistance level until we get some very meaningful news, as the company beating estimates for the 3rd quarter or raising full year guidance.

When that happens I believe the stock will immediately open over $30 and leave an island on the chart, roughly between $18 and $28. Of course, the scenario may not play out this way, the important thing is to have fundamentals supporting the long term rise of the stock. And that we have.

[David Randolph]

JAKK's move seems solid, the stock consolidated a bit on low volume. I'll continue holding JAKK.

[David Randolph]

JAKK's management is smart, anticipating trends. They bought Hanna Montana's and Pokemon's licenses when these were relatively unknown or a thing of the past in Pokemon's case, just before they exploded in popularity.

It seems the market is starting to see a very strong 2nd half for JAKK, and seeing the nonsense it was selling the stock that way just because of an almost irrelevant 5 cents miss in a seasonally weak period, before the new products hit the stores.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

[David Randolph]

JAKK is coming back very strongly and entered the "gap territory". The gap will be closed at $29.5, but the reasons behind the move tell me JAKK will reward patient investors a lot more than just a close the gap move.

I believe this because the reasons behind the move seem to be that JAKK is having a stronger than expected 2nd half, because its new products are getting a lot of traction in stores. This may mean the company will not only deliver on its $2.39 EPS promise, but probably exceed it.

Another reason is that JAKK worked a lot to diversify itself from being mainly a WWE action figures company. This should promote a multiple expansion, because with more diversification, comes less risk.

My take is JAKK should trade at 20 times earnings like any other major toy company. If JAKK makes, say, $2.5 a share and this type of multiple expansion occurs, we'll be looking at a $50 a share stock by years end. This is my expectation, I'll keep holding JAKK.

[David Randolph]

It seems JAKK is having just a bit of trouble surpassing the $28 short term resistance level at first attempt. I would actually prefer if the stock were to stay between $26 and $28 until we get some meaningful earnings news, and then a gap up with the stock opening above $30 and never looking back. Somehow I believe this behavior would harm the bears in this stock more, and they deserve to be as punished as an investor can be ... Lol, where did I get this rage?

BigSully1, with his flexibility, did much better, going with the flow.

Anyway, I'll continue holding JAKK for the long term.

[David Randolph]

I would actually prefer if the stock were to stay between $26 and $28 until we get some meaningful earnings news, and then a gap up with the stock opening above $30 and never looking back.

Be careful with what you wish for ... it may actually happen

Let's see if JAKK can sustain the $26 level, making a range between $26 and $28. I'll keep holding JAKK for the long term.

[David Randolph]

JAKK did all right yesterday, as I want it to be kept between $26 and $28 until the next earnings news ... then a gap up to more than $30 a share, as management increases 2007 full year guidance, that would be a fundamental development which could take JAKK towards $50 a share.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

[David Randolph]

Check this out folks, at www.marketwatch.com:

Miley mania rocks box-office prices
Your girls want 'Hannah Montana' tickets; you can forget the Boss

It's a mania. Prepare for a blowout 2nd half for JAKK, they could sell their Hannah Montana dolls for $100 a piece or more, they would sell them all

[BigSully1]

Check this out folks, at www.marketwatch.com:

Miley mania rocks box-office prices
Your girls want 'Hannah Montana' tickets; you can forget the Boss

It's a mania. Prepare for a blowout 2nd half for JAKK, they could sell their Hannah Montana dolls for $100 a piece or more, they would sell them all

Well now I know what the Tivo'd newscast, was about last night and won't need to listen. Like you David, I hope this doesn't run up too fast. I don't want to be tempted to take profits, want to at least  push them into next year. Good to see you excited on this one, you deserve a nice reward on it.