NGA

[lancefur]

Financials came out on August 4th per Yahoo. Was there something with the results?

fantastic start of trading on NASDAQ....   

I think there was some problem with NGA's transactions on the Nasdaq, because volume was abnormally low, considering the magnitude of the move yesterday. I mean, the stock opened down 14.3% with almost no volume? Can't be, something went wrong.

I would expect the anomaly to be corrected today and NGA to go back up to where it was before.  We've touched the base of the descending channel (again).

I'll keep holding NGA.

[jorgegr]

It nearly closed the gap. Hope will bounce up from here otherwise...
will have to take another loss

[Terliso]

Ket, Just curious as to why you think NGA will go back down to $6. 

I think he said that because NGA is breaking down again from Descending Triangle and it made the 3rd hit from Decending Resistance.

If you do the math, you will get the technical target of $5.43. Unless NGA is going to report a blowout earnings and $5.43 target will never get made because Fundamentals will trump the Technicals.

11.63 - 8.53 = $3.10
08.53 - 3.10 = $5.43

Sorry for the first chart, it was posted a month ago.

NGA hit the target today.

there is something terribly wrong with this company...

There is nothing wrong with the company Raspi, just a technical breakdown.

[David Randolph]

I don't quite understand what you mean? It goes down on light volume because there are no buyers.. I don't think it has anything to do with trading on NASDAQ...

You were right raspi, sorry for my misinterpretation of the facts.

NGA hit the target today.

Yes, you were absolutely right in your technical analysis and prediction Terliso, congrats

NGA got killed over the past few days and I wasn't even watching when the stock made a low at $5 or I don't know how I would feel. Even after recovering almost 20% from the intraday low, NGA was still down 10.8% on the day

I still think there are a few minor technical problems with the stock's Nasdaq trading, for example, we have ygtrdr saying he doesn't have Level II quotes and my Metastock isn't updating the stock either. These problems may have partially caused the low liquidity and the subsequent very sharp moves.

Yesterday NGA closed a very big and visible gap, but there's no doubt the technical picture is quite bearish now.

Valuation seems extremely attractive now, since NGA is trading at 8 times 2007 estimated EPS (I'm expecting a second half of the year similar to the first), and growing EPS by 71% from the year ago levels. However, the CEO's words at the latest earnings press release weren't positive:

«Commenting on the results of the second quarter 2007, Ronald J. Evans, president and chief executive officer, said "The strength of the U.S. economy continues to support hot-dip galvanizing demand at above historical levels. Strong capital goods spending, including electrical distribution and highway projects which specify galvanized product, has resulted in improved industry utilization rates."»

This "above historical levels" means that he expects demand to slow to the historical average.

When I was picking the two stocks to drop from the Main yesterday (which ended up being SYX and SNDA) I considered NGA, but then I figured that the bridge accident occurred in the US and the 156,000 bridges across the country needing maintenance would add to NGA's demand going forward.

The CEO's words were certainly discouraging, but I guess it wasn't on purpose.

NGA is just a $73 M market cap company growing revenues from $35 M in 2004, to $47 M in 2005, to $74 M in 2006 and to about $92 M in 2007. The revenue CAGR since 2004 was 38%, which is impressive. EPS came up from $0.03 in 2004 to an estimated $0.72 in 2006. But the stock price also rose from an average of $1.2 in 2004 to a high of $11.63 in 2007, so I would say the share price reflected the improvement in fundamentals.

Now, the CEO said this was an above trend growth, but I don't think revenues will shrink back down to 2004 levels, even if there's an economic recession in the US. A part of the company's growth has to be on its own merits.

I'm taking a lot of pain in NGA (and way too fast), but I hold the stock some more time, to see if we get some clarification on the technical problems, the CEO (I'm going to write him an e-mail), or a technical improvement after closing the gap.

I'll hold NGA.

[David Randolph]

I believe NGA's bleeding has stopped. I expect the stock to rise at least 10% today or tomorrow. I'll reconsider my options on NGA over the update after Thursday's close, for now I'll hold.

[pinoleropuro]

NGA is another winner according to Dow Theory Quadrix by ticker.
infact this one scored the highest.
NGA
over all score                  99(Dow theory only recomends stocks with an over all score of 80)
momntum score             99
value score                     69
quality score                   91
financial strength             77
earnings estimates          NA (?)
Performance score          86
volume metrics               83

in the past when I have held stocks Dow theory recommends with an overall score over 80 I have done well.
NGA has the highest score from all your picks. I am considering selling my CL and either get in NGA or JAKK.

[David Randolph]

NGA is another winner according to Dow Theory Quadrix by ticker.
infact this one scored the highest.
NGA
over all score                  99(Dow theory only recomends stocks with an over all score of 80)
momntum score             99
value score                     69
quality score                   91
financial strength             77
earnings estimates          NA (?)
Performance score          86
volume metrics               83

in the past when I have held stocks Dow theory recommends with an overall score over 80 I have done well.
NGA has the highest score from all your picks. I am considering selling my CL and either get in NGA or JAKK.

Hi pinoleropuro, I've heard a lot about the Dow Theory, but never this one. The Dow theory that I know of was invented by Charles Dow (the creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and it compares the Dow Transports with the Dow Industrials to make general market bull and bear calls.

I wonder if you're talking about another "Dow". What's your source? I would like to learn about that theory. Thanks

NGA didn't rise 10% as I expected, in fact it fell an additional 4.66% and now I'm losing 35.44% in this stock Man, I was winning 14% just three weeks ago, this sure was a sudden and painful change. The next time I'll pay more attention to the chart, and not just to the fundamentals. I need technical & fundamental analysis combined to get an edge.

I still think there's some problem with NGA's trading, most websites are not updating the quotes and Reuters isn't updating it either.

It is too early to phone call investor relations now, but I'll make a call throughout the session to see if they're aware of anything.

The CEO's words over the latest press release were stupid, because he blamed the US economy for the company's success. One never does that, when things go well, it is because management and employees worked well, when things go bad, "it's the economy's fault" These guys need to learn these tricks and not harm shareholders in an unnecessary way.

The candles still favor a bounce in NGA, I hope it happens today. I'll hold NGA some more time, the stock is fundamentally cheap at this point.

[Garoh]

NGA is another winner according to Dow Theory Quadrix by ticker.
infact this one scored the highest.
NGA
over all score                  99(Dow theory only recomends stocks with an over all score of 80)
momntum score             99
value score                     69
quality score                   91
financial strength             77
earnings estimates          NA (?)
Performance score          86
volume metrics               83

in the past when I have held stocks Dow theory recommends with an overall score over 80 I have done well.
NGA has the highest score from all your picks. I am considering selling my CL and either get in NGA or JAKK.

Hi pinoleropuro, I've heard a lot about the Dow Theory, but never this one. The Dow theory that I know of was invented by Charles Dow (the creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and it compares the Dow Transports with the Dow Industrials to make general market bull and bear calls.

I wonder if you're talking about another "Dow". What's your source? I would like to learn about that theory. Thanks

NGA didn't rise 10% as I expected, in fact it fell an additional 4.66% and now I'm losing 35.44% in this stock Man, I was winning 14% just three weeks ago, this sure was a sudden and painful change. The next time I'll pay more attention to the chart, and not just to the fundamentals. I need technical & fundamental analysis combined to get an edge.
I still think there's some problem with NGA's trading, most websites are not updating the quotes and Reuters isn't updating it either.

It is too early to phone call investor relations now, but I'll make a call throughout the session to see if they're aware of anything.

The CEO's words over the latest press release were stupid, because he blamed the US economy for the company's success. One never does that, when things go well, it is because management and employees worked well, when things go bad, "it's the economy's fault" These guys need to learn these tricks and not harm shareholders in an unnecessary way.

The candles still favor a bounce in NGA, I hope it happens today. I'll hold NGA some more time, the stock is fundamentally cheap at this point.

Yes David this is very important , technical tells you about things goes on that you don't know about to avoid such sharp loss 

NGA has a problem with its trading I'm not getting it on one of my streamers .. there should be a problem with it ..

[BigSully1]

NGA is another winner according to Dow Theory Quadrix by ticker.
infact this one scored the highest.
NGA
over all score                  99(Dow theory only recomends stocks with an over all score of 80)
momntum score             99
value score                     69
quality score                   91
financial strength             77
earnings estimates          NA (?)
Performance score          86
volume metrics               83

in the past when I have held stocks Dow theory recommends with an overall score over 80 I have done well.
NGA has the highest score from all your picks. I am considering selling my CL and either get in NGA or JAKK.

Hi pinoleropuro, I've heard a lot about the Dow Theory, but never this one. The Dow theory that I know of was invented by Charles Dow (the creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and it compares the Dow Transports with the Dow Industrials to make general market bull and bear calls.

I wonder if you're talking about another "Dow". What's your source? I would like to learn about that theory. Thanks

He's talking about the Quadrix rating system that Richard Moroney uses in his newsletters "Dow Theory Forecasts" and "Upside Stocks"

By the way Pino, "Upside" reccommended selling JAKK as soon as ER came out, and never reccomended buying NGA.

[tokyopua]

I agree that NGA should bounce here soon, it is quite oversold.  I got in yesterday as the gap fill and the 200sma looked like it should act as support.  Im a bit surprised to see it go down yet again, but am still hopeful it can get above the 200sma today.  There is also a trend line connecting March and April lows to this current low, so hopefully all this combines to start stabilizing NGA and sending it higher.

[BigSully1]

NGA didn't rise 10% as I expected, in fact it fell an additional 4.66% and now I'm losing 35.44% in this stock Man, I was winning 14% just three weeks ago, this sure was a sudden and painful change. The next time I'll pay more attention to the chart, and not just to the fundamentals. I need technical & fundamental analysis combined to get an edge.

So now you finally .admit that you are a trader, will always be a trader, and not some kind of misguided Warren Buffet apprentice? Many people here have warned you many times that you do need to pay attention to technicals especially on these volatile micro and small caps. Some got booted off the site for it.

Well David, I can't be booted off, I've already canceled my subscription (after almost 2 years) and today will likely be my last day here. I just can't figure out what your site is all about anymore. I have no trouble finding good LT picks on my own, and most of your picks I would never want to hold LT anyway.

Maybe once you figure out what 3SOF and yourself is all about, I will return. Until then, seeya later and GL.

[tokyopua]

NGA didn't rise 10% as I expected, in fact it fell an additional 4.66% and now I'm losing 35.44% in this stock Man, I was winning 14% just three weeks ago, this sure was a sudden and painful change. The next time I'll pay more attention to the chart, and not just to the fundamentals. I need technical & fundamental analysis combined to get an edge.

So now you finally .admit that you are a trader, will always be a trader, and not some kind of misguided Warren Buffet apprentice? Many people here have warned you many times that you do need to pay attention to technicals especially on these volatile micro and small caps. Some got booted off the site for it.

Well David, I can't be booted off, I've already canceled my subscription (after almost 2 years) and today will likely be my last day here. I just can't figure out what your site is all about anymore. I have no trouble finding good LT picks on my own, and most of your picks I would never want to hold LT anyway.

Maybe once you figure out what 3SOF and yourself is all about, I will return. Until then, seeya later and GL.

Wow, tough words.

David, I suppose on a day like today and then hearing this kind of thing, you might feel pretty low.  Just wanted to throw in my vote of confidence with you.   You could still be amazingly right long term, we just havent gotten there yet.  Or worst case you just lost some money in this tough market like pretty much everyone else, and might decide to alter your approach again. 

In any case, you have a track record that speaks for itself, dont forget that.      Still rooting for you big guy!!!!

[mbaugh]

BigSully1, I understand your frustration, but I believe you are too short-sighted, you want everything to be perfect all the time, let us know if you find another service that sticks around and still interacts with their customers when the going gets tough....I bet you'll never find such a service.  This is what makes David different, he's here during the good and bad times.  The main problem here is that NO ONE seems to be able to tolerate the term "long-term", I admit I am guilty also, but the fact remains that David has clearly said his picks are for 3 years.  Well in today's world with the internet and the constant flow of information, I believe most people have lost that long-term approach.  It has become a "me" and a "I want it now" society.  If you buy a stock to hold for three years then that means its a "hold" for three years.  If you critique the stock everyday then I guess its not really a stock for three years because yes it will go down and it will go up again and again........the real test is where will it be in three years?  I admit I don't have the right answers,but am I going to blame someone else especially David, HELL NO!!!!  Because of David I am a better trader and because of him I am still here able to trade.  David is human, i believe most on this board expect too much of David, I would not trade David for any other financial advisor in the world because I know he's sincere and honest and that alone will allow him to prevail.  Remember folks, he's only trying to achieve a 30% yearly return, well he may not be able to acheive that every single year but over the long-term I bet he does since he already acheived over 100% returns annually since inception.  The best part about this site is our ability to interact and share ideas and David's ability to adapt as well.  maybe we can go with a short term portfolio and a long-term portfolio.  Not a daily day-trading one, but one such as a 3-month fund and the other being the way it is now the 3 year fund.  That way we can still make money in the short-term by buying for a swing trade and still have the main portfolio so that we can still see where we end up in 3 years.  If it seems that the short-term fund keeps outpacing the long-term fund then we can re-evaluate whether or not to keep having a long-term fund.  Its my opinion that in today's fast paced society the concept of "long-term" is fading since technogy is changing everything allowing more people to control their monies.  I believe that's why we see daily 200 point swings in the market.  People are managing their money from cell-phones to their lap-tops at work and this I believe is contributing to the erosion of the "Long-term" concept.  Back in the old days people never knew how their stocks where doing untill they got their statements in the mail or if they checked the papers.  I still agree with David that maybe long-term is the way to go, but I'm also open to the fact that maybe we are in a different world today and the long-term approach may be dying but the only way to find out is to stick with the plan and see how we still at the end.  This post is already too long, sorry if I didn't make much sense, but I've had a few cold beers tonight!   Good Luck everyone! And David, I stand right behind you!

[pinoleropuro]

NGA is another winner according to Dow Theory Quadrix by ticker.
infact this one scored the highest.
NGA
over all score                  99(Dow theory only recomends stocks with an over all score of 80)
momntum score             99
value score                     69
quality score                   91
financial strength             77
earnings estimates          NA (?)
Performance score          86
volume metrics               83

in the past when I have held stocks Dow theory recommends with an overall score over 80 I have done well.
NGA has the highest score from all your picks. I am considering selling my CL and either get in NGA or JAKK.

Hi pinoleropuro, I've heard a lot about the Dow Theory, but never this one. The Dow theory that I know of was invented by Charles Dow (the creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and it compares the Dow Transports with the Dow Industrials to make general market bull and bear calls.

I wonder if you're talking about another "Dow". What's your source? I would like to learn about that theory. Thanks

He's talking about the Quadrix rating system that Richard Moroney uses in his newsletters "Dow Theory Forecasts" and "Upside Stocks"

By the way Pino, "Upside" reccommended selling JAKK as soon as ER came out, and never reccomended buying NGA.

Thanks BigSully1
I can't respond to the board while I am at work so I didn't.
David,
I have only been in this board since the begining of this year, even though I registered a long time ago- don't remember when. I like you, am also loosing quite a bit.
You have a great track record and that is why I decided to follow your board.
Just a thought, what got you to where you are now with a great following is what worked best for you and for those that are following you otherwise you would not have the great following you have.
My little portfolio doesn't even compare to yours but that is why I follow your recomendations because you've done well. obviously you've done something right.
Maybe changing strategy is not really what is needed but one thing I have read repeatedly throughout the board is that maybe we simply need to tweek the entry points a little more.
I know its gotta be aweful to see your portfolio go from around $420,000.00 to $358,000.00 and change.
just take a moment to refocus, regroup and I am very confident you will be able to come back with a vengence just like you found that GOAM trade. I know you can find a couple of other GOAMS out there that can help this thing get back on track.
Buena suerte amigo. = good luck friend.
I am hanging on...

[TraderStar]

Guess I will add my 2 cents here :-) 

I've rarely encountered anyone with more savvy than David in picking small cap stocks with potential to give big returns.
But the timing for entry ... often has room for improvement. 
Much of the time it's like .. "I've found another good one, let's buy on open tomorrow".
And the chart is screaming ... "not yet!!" 

Picking winning stocks may be the most important component of wealth-building, but it is not the only one.  There are 2 others:  timing of entry and timing the market.
Since the Dow hit 14k, there were numerous signs of failure at least in the short term.  Profits should have been taken in all holdings and new entries postponed until the best setups once again present themselves.
NGA for example ...why not exit at the first close below the 50 sma .. or the second one at latest... then sit back in the weeds & watch.  The market fell apart & so did NGA.  Now it just bounced on its 200 sma, so maybe there's a new entry down here ..
Take profits at $9 and re-invest at $5.64 with a really tight stop .. what's wrong with that? 

I think it would work out better to be trading these great picks ..  not just buy & blindly hold on, come what may.

You don't need charts that look like the blueprints for the New York subway system 
... just a couple of moving averages, stochastics, volume .. a few simple indicators are enough because we already know the stocks are fundamentally sound and will eventually run ... like TBSI for example

David Elliott of Wall Street Teachers is an excellent market timer and has some basic technical timing indicators he uses (he also has more complex ones for those who want to daytrade fast & furious!).  He just did a web presentation for Options University on these simple proprietary indicators which should be available for the next few days at least: 
http://www.options-university.com/Webinars/DavidElliott/index.html

I watched it last night & it reminded me again of how important it is to enter your trade at the right time ... like in real estate, you make your profit when you buy your house .. if you pay the right price. 

In any case, it's up to each of us to manage our own account .. those with small accounts need to be stricter than those blessed with large ones .. the latter can often just set & forget because they can weather the downtrends.  But I think we would all make more money faster if we factored chart timing and market timing into the purchase decision ..
there are times when it may be better to just be in cash .. waiting for the next good entry points to set up.

Maybe others would like to share their favorite timing indicators in the General discussion.