PAL

[soxguy]

Careful David,PAL down early,could dip below $5. Downward mo. Commodities selling off.

[Garoh]

It's a great timing David

Closing above 5.50 today could drive it high . You'er doing good work with this one ..

[buddjas1]

What is the point in buying into downward momentum?  There is no technical buy point down to $4.  Why not buy then, or wait for an upturn in momentum?  Your timing is killing your capital.

[terainvestment]

Let David works, buddjas...if you don't like, don't invest...that's it.

David has not the crystal ball, and working in this market environment it is very difficult for everyone.

Do, buddjas: please tell us your picks and make a comparison.
Run a fund, and see your returns.

Thanks!

[buddjas1]

Let David works, buddjas...if you don't like, don't invest...that's it.

David has not the crystal ball, and working in this market environment it is very difficult for everyone.

Do, buddjas: please tell us your picks and make a comparison.
Run a fund, and see your returns.

Thanks!

I do tell my picks.  I even started an exercise three weeks ago, logging all my trades while I turn $400 and some into much more.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=11012.msg113427#new

I am up over 20%, while the DOW30 is up less than 1%.  Only time will tell if I can do that consistently.

Did you buy PAL?  Why or why not?

[David Randolph]

What is the point in buying into downward momentum?  There is no technical buy point down to $4.  Why not buy then, or wait for an upturn in momentum?  Your timing is killing your capital.

Now you're into technical analysis buddjas1? I still remember when you held on to IEAM, due to "fundamentals", as it fell 90%.

Anyway, I respect your changes, as you must do with mine.

At least so far I'm winning in PAL, 3.64%. This wasn't your best choice to finger pointing ...

The candle left on the chart and the volume were bullish. Let's see what the next few days bring, unfortunately I'm being forced in thinking more short term.

I know I'm a superior short term trader, I have the tools, the knowledge and the mental flexibility to beat anyone at that game. I tried to play another game, but unfortunately it appears that I wasn't prepared for it.

I'll hold PAL, I think we'll close over $6 today. I'll take a small loss if we close below $5 today.

Blargh, it's so primary to trade like this ...

[buddjas1]

Your reference to IEAM is a cheap-shot.  If I remember correctly, you lost your fortune more than once, am I right?  I guess I am in good company.

Anyway, I learned my lesson from IEAM.  That lesson is that one must respect technical analysis as much as fundamental analysis.  Fundamental analysis can boil the 10,000 US stocks down to the most "undervalued" 100.  Technical analysis can tell you when to buy and sell those 100 undervalued stocks.  That's is what I am trying to do now.  Otherwise, fundamental analysis alone can be a trap and an excuse to let the losses run.

Have you learned your lesson from UTVG, CHME, etc., etc.?

Regarding PAL, the timing on your purchase from PAL made no sense to me and was too risky.  Maybe you timed a bottom, I don't know.  I wish you luck, however.

[berloga]

C'mon, guys! The tough economic conditions add bitter taste to everyone's spoon! When things are groovy we all strew compliments, when things turn sour, we let the worst of us out. I admire buddjas1's desire to search for better methods and David's courage to stick to his theories and throw in the towel when needed and admit mistakes. We all are learning here, there's no crystal ball...

We should take the best of the 2 approaches and unite them.

• The fundamental analysis is the reason why investors buy stocks - they perceive them cheap and expect appreciation.
• The technical analysis is what the investors often use as a gauge of other investors' perception of the stock at the moment.

Although in the long run, the fundamental analysis will probably prevail, the stock can be severely affected by the short term market conditions.

What buddjas1 recommends is to learn to use these signals to help make our day less sour. While keeping in mind the long term perspective, it is safer to take money off the table to prevent a long-term financial or mental depression. Green always looks more attractive than red and let's confess, we all watch the market daily. Just my two cents. 

[David Randolph]

Your reference to IEAM is a cheap-shot.  If I remember correctly, you lost your fortune more than once, am I right?  I guess I am in good company.

Yes, that's true.

Anyway, I learned my lesson from IEAM.  That lesson is that one must respect technical analysis as much as fundamental analysis.  Fundamental analysis can boil the 10,000 US stocks down to the most "undervalued" 100.  Technical analysis can tell you when to buy and sell those 100 undervalued stocks.  That's is what I am trying to do now.  Otherwise, fundamental analysis alone can be a trap and an excuse to let the losses run.

I must say that I admire any person who has the courage to admit mistakes, change his views and evolve. I didn't met many of these in my life.

Have you learned your lesson from UTVG, CHME, etc., etc.?

That would be a re-learning process. This is why it has been so difficult ... I guess I've learned some lessons and I probably won't make the same mistakes again in the future, but I still didn't execute on some of those losses.

Regarding PAL, the timing on your purchase from PAL made no sense to me and was too risky.  Maybe you timed a bottom, I don't know.  I wish you luck, however.

It made no sense to you because you're deriving too much to the technical side. Using just that side, was there any sense about selling around $9, like I did, when the stock was very bullish?

There wasn't, but it was the right thing to do over the short term.

PAL is up 4.8% at $5.67 ... we'll see where it closes.

Anyway, what do you think of "sell the rumor, buy the fact"? This was mainly what guided me in PAL, I knew the company would report bad results for Q4, so I sold, then when the news was out, I bought.

I guess this was a more or less good example of "technimental" analysis.

Thanks for your post berloga, you're a practical man, I wish I didn't complicate things so much. You're probably right in your assessments.

[Garoh]

It's a great timing David

Closing above 5.50 today could drive it high . You'er doing good work with this one ..

HSBC upgrades N Amer Palladium (PAL 5.50) to Neutral from Underweight

[David Randolph]

It's a great timing David

Closing above 5.50 today could drive it high . You'er doing good work with this one ..

HSBC upgrades N Amer Palladium (PAL 5.50) to Neutral from Underweight

Thanks for the information Garoh

You know what? I'll take a small profit in PAL at the 50 days SMA (today at $6.14), I need a small profit to start getting back on my feet. Need to increase confidence somehow.

The trading plan for PAL is:

1 - Take profits at $6.14
2 - Don't let a profit turn into a loss, that is, SELL if the stock prints $5.22.

[berloga]

As the market is near the bottom, there is pure speculation going on. One day up, the next day down. So, your trading decision on PAL looks very reasonable. It is hard to build any projections at this juncture.

[pinoleropuro]

what is magical about $6.14?
there seems to be resistance at $5.95 and at $6.12?

so why $6.14?

just trying to understand.
Thanks.

[David Randolph]

what is magical about $6.14?
there seems to be resistance at $5.95 and at $6.12?

so why $6.14?

just trying to understand.
Thanks.

It's the 50 days simple moving average:

I'll take a small profit in PAL at the 50 days SMA (today at $6.14)

[David Randolph]

The trading plan for PAL is:

1 - Take profits at $6.14
2 - Don't let a profit turn into a loss, that is, SELL if the stock prints $5.22.

Done. 17.6% profit. Not a lot and probably selling was a mistake, but maybe this will cheer me up.

I may not know enough to be a long term investor, or not have enough patience, but I believe I know how to "tic-tac".

I'll try to make some more trades like this.