ICOC

[David Randolph]

I should find more like ICOC, since I'm already 33.7% ahead on the stock and it was so obvious since the beginning. That preferred shares issue really made the trick, didn't it?

It really pays to read the 10-Q and 10-K forms filed with the SEC. But it sure gives a lot of work ... not a problem to me, I would work to the moon for a superior strategy, or for an hedge. 

My valuation model says ICOC's optimal exit price is $17.53, so I'll comfortably let the profits run.

[Garoh]

I should find more like ICOC, since I'm already 33.7% ahead on the stock and it was so obvious since the beginning. That preferred shares issue really made the trick, didn't it?

It really pays to read the 10-Q and 10-K forms filed with the SEC. But it sure gives a lot of work ... not a problem to me, I would work to the moon for a superior strategy, or for an hedge. 

My valuation model says ICOC's optimal exit price is $17.53, so I'll comfortably let the profits run.

David I told you this is the best one you have right now ...  I think you should look at chart first , it will give you a clear view about the stock direction for fast return stocks such as ICOC 

Maybe SNCR will be a good one , take a look  ...

[DragonAMG]

this definitely appears to be a good pick!!!  My only mistake is buying a few hundred shares.  I really need to adopt your 6% on every stock.   I just randomly bought the amount of shares I think is right.... could be 1% or 10%.  Very bad money management... I know, I know.

[Garoh]

Zacks likes this one 

Zacks Recent Price Strength Strategy highlights: Amtrust Financial Services, ICO, Inc., Logility and SMTC Corp.

Jul 6, 2007 06:00:09 (ET)


CHICAGO, Jul 06, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- This stock picking strategy looks for companies trading in the upper range of their 52-week highs that have attractive fundamental attributes. This strategy proves that "trend is your friend" with a +29% return versus +16.7% for the S&P 500 in 2006. This screen is called the Recent Price Strength Profit Track strategy. Four stocks meeting this screen's exclusive criteria are Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI, Trade ), ICO, Inc. (ICOC, Trade ), Logility, Inc. (LGTY, Trade ) and SMTC Corp. (SMTX, Trade ). View the entire list of stocks for the Recent Price Strength Profit Track at http://at.zacks.com/?id=1863

Here are details about four companies currently identified by the Recent Price Strength Profit Track:

Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI, Trade ), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, recently reached a new 52-week high and has seen its share price increase 19% over the past four weeks. In late June, the company announced that it entered an agreement to acquire Associated Industries Insurance Services, Inc., a Florida-based workers' compensation managing general agency, and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Associated Industries Insurance Company, Inc., a Florida workers' compensation insurer, for approximately $41.2 million. In early June, AFSI declared a quarterly dividend of 25 cents per share, reflecting a dividend increase of 25%.

ICO, Inc. (ICOC, Trade ) just hit a new 52-week high. The company experienced a share price increase of 25% during the past four weeks. In early May, ICOC delivered fiscal second-quarter earnings that were ahead of the consensus estimate by 14% and increased on a year-over-year basis. The company experienced record quarterly revenues of $94.7 million, an improvement of 19% from the previous year.
Logility, Inc. (LGTY, Trade ) is hovering right around its 52-week high, which was set in late June shortly after the company posted fiscal fourth-quarter results that included a record total revenues amount of $12.7 million. The result was 26% ahead of last year's revenues. Quarterly earnings per share of 14 cents surpassed the year-prior 12 cents. LGTY has seen its share price increase by 15% over the past four weeks.

SMTC Corp. (SMTX, Trade ) has been recently achieving 52-week highs and currently trades slightly below that level. The share price of SMTX grew by 40% over the past four weeks, which is the highest four-week growth record currently under this Profit Track. In mid-May, the company reported first-quarter results, stating that its quarterly performance reflects continuing solid execution of its growth strategy premised on improving its customers' cost competitiveness by providing high quality manufacturing and outstanding service responsiveness.

[David Randolph]

David I told you this is the best one you have right now ...  I think you should look at chart first , it will give you a clear view about the stock direction for fast return stocks such as ICOC   

I'm not interested in fast returns, but in a 30% plus long term average return for the Main Portfolio. After 11 years in the stock market and hundreds if not thousands of analysis I firmly believe the chart doesn't tell you what will happen next. I also need scalability in my strategy.

Maybe SNCR will be a good one , take a look  ...

SNCR ... well, the chart certainly looks bullish, maybe even a parabolic rise:



Market cap is $1.1 B for $76 M in revenue over the past four quarters, so the price to sales ratio is 14.5. EPS over the past four quarters was $0.39, so the Price to Earnings Ratio is 87.3.

I don't know if the stock will be up or not, but it sure looks insanely overvalued. I wouldn't touch it, because if it starts going down, that is, without bullish momentum, the stock will fall dramatically. It would be a long way from overvalued to undervalued.

But you're doing quite well with your averaging up in ICOC, congrats

this definitely appears to be a good pick!!!  My only mistake is buying a few hundred shares.  I really need to adopt your 6% on every stock.   I just randomly bought the amount of shares I think is right.... could be 1% or 10%.  Very bad money management... I know, I know.

Hi DragonAMG, I think the 6.6% rule, or for example, 10% rule if you're about to own 10 different stocks is a simple and effective way of controlling risk. As a comparison between the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio and the Main Portfolio shows it is very hard to know which stocks will perform the best.

Nothing new on ICOC, I'll keep holding the stock.

[David Randolph]

ICOC's uptrend continues, despite some profit taking by the end of the session. Fundamental value is at least $16, no reason to take profits this low, even though it will be a bumpy road.

[David Randolph]

Resin prices have the greatest impact on ICOC's revenues and earnings:

«Demand for the Company's products and services tends to be driven by overall economic factors and, particularly, consumer spending. The trend of applicable resin prices also impacts customer demand. As resin prices are falling, customers tend to reduce their inventories and, therefore, reduce their need for the Company's products and services as customers choose to purchase resin on a just-in-time basis rather than building large levels of inventory. Conversely, as resin prices are rising, customers often increase their inventories and accelerate their purchases of products and services from the Company to help lower their raw material costs. Additionally, demand for the Company's products and services tends to be seasonal, with customer demand historically being weakest during the Company's first fiscal quarter due to the holiday season. The Company's fourth fiscal quarter also tends to be weaker compared to the Company's second and third fiscal quarters, in terms of customer demand, due to vacation periods in the Company's European markets. However, demand during the Company's fourth fiscal quarter of 2006 and 2005 was the strongest demand of all quarters within fiscal years 2006 and 2005 due, in part, to rising resin prices.»

It took me some time, but I found the market for resin at the Plastics Exchange 

I still need to figure out what this all means, but it appears resin prices have been strong.

Just one note to seasonality: this quarter (calendar Q2 is fiscal Q3 for ICOC) should be strong, but the next one will be affected by seasonality.

I'll continue holding ICOC.

[David Randolph]

ICOC said the following in its Q1 2007 10-Q:

«The Company's revenues and profitability are impacted by the change in resin prices. The Company uses various resins (primarily polyethylene) to make its products. As the price of resin increases or decreases, market prices for the Company's products will generally also increase or decrease. This will typically lead to higher or lower average selling prices and will impact the Company's gross profit and gross margin. The impact on gross profit is due to a lag in matching the change in raw material cost of goods sold and the change in product sales prices.»

Even though resin is a cost for ICOC, it appears that the more it rises, the better for ICOC's short to medium term financial performance.

Going to the Plastics Exchange (beautiful) website, particularly to the polyethylene market summary, we see that its price, although below its mid 2006 highs, was significantly higher in Q2 2007 when compared to Q1 2007:



It looks like Q2 2007 is set to be very strong for ICOC, since it is also a seasonally strong quarter. We'll see how strong and judge then. In the meantime, relax and keep holding ICOC.

[Garoh]

David

What's this ??

Thursday , July 05, 2007 15:30ET

According to the NASDAQ Dividend List, ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOCZ) are expected to go ex-dividend on July 06, 2007. This $0.421875 cash dividend was originally declared on May 02, 2007.

  DECL-DATE          X-DATE        REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
05/02/2007      07/06/2007      06/22/2007      07/02/2007

AMOUNT:    $0.421875 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: N/A
CHANGE:    N/A

[David Randolph]

David

What's this ??

Thursday , July 05, 2007 15:30ET

According to the NASDAQ Dividend List, ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOCZ) are expected to go ex-dividend on July 06, 2007. This $0.421875 cash dividend was originally declared on May 02, 2007.

  DECL-DATE          X-DATE        REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
05/02/2007      07/06/2007      06/22/2007      07/02/2007

AMOUNT:    $0.421875 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: N/A
CHANGE:    N/A

Good question Garoh

Unfortunately I don't have a good answer. I've searched on ICOC's 10-Q's and didn't find anything relative to ICOCZ. You know what? I think ICOCZ only has a relation to ICOC because the ticker symbols resemble each other. I guess ICOCZ is an illiquid ADS from a foreign company, a company that doesn't have anything to do with ICOC (except the similar ticker symbol - this is why the financial websites link ICOCZ to ICOC). Check ICOCZ's chart:



Resin prices continue to push higher:



Second quarter earnings will probably be above expectations. Analysts are calling for $0.16 EPS.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

[David Randolph]

ICOC's earnings will be published in August 8th:

• Webcast Alert: ICO, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2007 Earnings Webcast
PR Newswire (Fri 7:00am)

I expect this quarter's earnings to be quite strong, because of seasonality, higher resin prices and what the CEO said in the Q1 earnings release:

«"Our operating results strengthened over the course of our fiscal second quarter, and we expect this momentum to carry into our third quarter," said company President and Chief Executive Officer A. John Knapp Jr.»

ICOC made $0.20 EPS in calendar Q1 2007 and analysts are expecting just $0.16 for the calendar 2nd quarter. I guess everything is set for a nice earnings surprise in August 8th.

I'll continue holding ICOC.

[David Randolph]

ICOC had a pretty nasty sell off yesterday, with the stock going down 5.4% on the day. Like the sell off that happened a couple of weeks ago. Yet the stock is trending higher, as fundamentals are supportive.

From what I've been seeing about the factors that influence ICOC's fundamentals, I believe fiscal 3rd quarter earnings will be quite strong. Results will be published in August 8th and I'm not thinking of leaving the stock before that.

[David Randolph]

We're still three weeks away from ICOC's earnings, so there's plenty of time for the stock to make new highs before August 8th.

The scenario I'm making is ICOC pushing to new highs and opening with a gap up on what I expect to be good news. That's where I'll probably take profits.

For now I'll keep on holding ICOC.

[berloga]

This is a good strategy as many of us have commented here, including David's stance in the "Strategy Disclosed" thread. We should sell shares of companies like ICOC and NVTL when they have massive earnings run-up, then wait on the sidelines, as their fundamentals will hopefully still be good and then, for an opportune moment to get back in at a discounted price, if that happens. This way, we have a profit to enjoy and possibly offset any other mishaps, like TZOO, for instance.

[David Randolph]

This is a good strategy as many of us have commented here, including David's stance in the "Strategy Disclosed" thread. We should sell shares of companies like ICOC and NVTL when they have massive earnings run-up, then wait on the sidelines, as their fundamentals will hopefully still be good and then, for an opportune moment to get back in at a discounted price, if that happens. This way, we have a profit to enjoy and possibly offset any other mishaps, like TZOO, for instance.

Yes, mainly because of the risk of selling the stock on a technical breakdown due to weak hands, like it happened with SILC

Nothing new for ICOC, ascending support standing at $10.5. I'll keep holding ICOC.