NLG.TO

[video]

Michael,

Sell if you must and garner some profits, but get back in if it really starts to move.
If these numbers prove to be true....I think we can have at minimum a $6.00 Can. stock ($5.00 US)

Hope this is useful info.

Video

[Michael]

Video

As mentioned in the CKCM thread I already sold. I bought below 2 so I decided to lock in a bit of profit.

I agree that the Zambai option can provide significant upside for the stock. I do however believe that the stock might go down from here in the absence of news about this. I therefore hope to buy in a bit lower.

I don't think I have made it a secret here that I am very bullish on Oil stocks. I do however think we will see a correction in the coming weeks so I have in general sold out of my energy stocks.

The oil chart is showing a double top and Katrina has not managed to get people excited (at least not on oil). My target for this reversal is around $62. At that point I will be shopping for oil stocks again (including NLG!)

Mike

[video]

The Aftermath of Katrina (thanks to Tracer on Yahoo-PKZ board)

A Category 5 hurricane, the most severe type measured, Katrina has been reported heading directly toward the city of New Orleans. This would be a human catastrophe, since New Orleans sits in a bowl below sea level. However, Katrina is not only moving on New Orleans. It also is moving on the Port of Southern Louisiana. Were it to strike directly and furiously, Katrina would not only take a massive human toll, but also an enormous geopolitical one.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States. The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is bigger than Houston, Chiba and Nagoya, Antwerp and New York/New Jersey. It is a key link in U.S. imports and exports and critical to the global economy.

The Port of Southern Louisiana stretches up and down the Mississippi River for about 50 miles, running north and south of New Orleans from St. James to St. Charles Parish. It is the key port for the export of grains to the rest of the world -- corn, soybeans, wheat and animal feed. Midwestern farmers and global consumers depend on those exports. The United States imports crude oil, petrochemicals, steel, fertilizers and ores through the port. Fifteen percent of all U.S. exports by value go through the port. Nearly half of the exports go to Europe.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is a river port. It depends on the navigability of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi is notorious for changing its course, and in southern Louisiana -- indeed along much of its length -- levees both protect the land from its water and maintain its course and navigability. Dredging and other maintenance are constant and necessary to maintain its navigability. It is fragile.

If New Orleans is hit, the Port of Southern Louisiana, by definition, also will be hit. No one can predict the precise course of the storm or its consequences. However, if we speculate on worse-case scenarios the following consequences jump out:


The port might become in whole or part unusable if levees burst. If the damage to the river and port facilities could not be repaired within 30 days when the U.S. harvests are at their peak, the effect on global agricultural prices could be substantial.

There is a large refinery at Belle Chasse. It is the only refinery that is seriously threatened by the storm, but if it were to be inundated, 250,000 barrels per day would go off line. Moreover, the threat of environmental danger would be substantial.

About 2 percent of world crude production and roughly 25 percent of U.S.-produced crude comes from the Gulf of Mexico and already is affected by Katrina. Platforms in the path of Katrina have been evacuated but others continue pumping. If this follows normal patterns, most production will be back on line within hours or days. However, if a Category 5 hurricane (of which there have only been three others in history) has a different effect, the damage could be longer lasting. Depending on the effect on the Port of Southern Louisiana, the ability to ship could be affected.

A narrow, two-lane highway that handles approximately 10,000 vehicles a day, is used for transport of cargo and petroleum products and provides port access for thousands of employees is threatened with closure. A closure of as long as two weeks could rapidly push gasoline prices higher.

At a time when oil prices are in the mid-60-dollar range and starting to hurt, the hurricane has an obvious effect. However, it must be borne in mind that the Mississippi remains a key American shipping route, particularly for the export and import of a variety of primary commodities from grain to oil, as well as steel and rubber. Andrew Jackson fought hard to keep the British from taking New Orleans because he knew it was the main artery for U.S. trade with the world. He was right and its role has not changed since then.

This is not a prediction. We do not know the path of the storm and we cannot predict its effects. It is a warning that if a Category 5 hurricane hits the Port of Southern Louisiana and causes the damage that is merely at the outer reach of the probable, the effect on the global system will be substantial.







   

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[REALDEALS21]

Oil is headingto over $70 !

Watch tomorrow for GAS and OIL plays !

[Michael]

Hi Realdeal and Video

It seems like I was exceptionally wrong with that call on oil! Good I posted it on a Sunday so nobody traded on it 

I still think we are heading for a reversal but for now it seems like oil prices literally has the wind in the back.

I will write a little more on oil when the storm has receded

Mike

[Michael]

Hmmm...... maybe I was too fast to apologize for my call on oil!

I have at least turned definitely short term bearish on oil.

If the worst storm in the Mexican Gulf in modern history can't break the resistance at $67 what can?

One of the signs that we might be looking of at a reversal is the clear divergence between the stock price and RSI. I will as promised write a bit more on oil as soon as I get time. (have been a bit busy lately looking at RFID!)

Mike

[video]

Nelson closed at a new recovery high.....$3.03 Canadian (last time it was this high was 1996)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NLG.TO

[la-onda]

=

[valueseeker]

I am still keeping NLG. The potential of Zhambai (or just the thinking the potential of it) will keep pushing up the stock.

I sold CHAR (NLG has 40% in it) today at the peak after holding it over two weeks. It probably will pull back a bit before next earning report.

Still keeping KCS (natural gas play) and EGY (a smaller oil company). I will try to buy into another natural gas company before October (when people start to turn on heater).

[PerfectSage]

Out of NLG.TO on Monday @ $2.93 and into PBG.TO @ $6.88 & out of PBG.TO @ $10.10

[valueseeker]

Sold NLG at $2.85 yesterday. I didn't like it dropped a bit after Katrina, instead of moving up like other oil & gas stock.

Still keeping KCS, CHK, and EGY in oil & gas sector. The former 2 for the up coming NG season.

[usedcasting]

Alot of action today. Have not found any news.
Anyone find anything?

Good Trading

[PerfectSage]

usedcasting: In spite of the fact that oil is down & natural gas is up today, energy stocks are having a great day.  Looks like NLG tested the breakout point of $2.50, passed and is now going to break above $3 on heavy volume. I bought  NLG back at $2.89 today. 

[oiloiloil]

What is this for BS, Lukoil offering only 2B for NLG.TO

[usedcasting]

Is this the end for Nelson? " Bad offer"


LUKOIL offers $2 bln to buy Nelson at a discount

Friday, September 30, 2005 06:09 EDT

By Dmitry Zhdannikov

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian oil major LUKOIL offered to buy oil firm Nelson Resources for US$2 billion in cash, a 15 percent discount to the market value of a firm with large potential reserves in Kazakhstan.

The price offered for Toronto-listed Nelson, with all its assets in the ex-Soviet republic, is around C$2.57 per share, compared with Thursday's closing price of C$2.96.

"The parties have agreed to negotiate the definitive agreements by Oct 12," Nelson said in a statement on Friday, adding that it was keen to ensure the offer would be for 100 percent of its shares.

But LUKOIL said it already had agreement from 65 percent of Nelson's shareholders that they would sell their stakes, and it would extend the offer to minority shareholders at the same price.

"This price represents a premium of 27.5 percent to the six-month average trading price of Nelson," said LUKOIL.

LUKOIL is already heavily present in Kazakhstan and has said it wants to further expand in the country, which is set to become one of the key global oil players in the next decades as it sits on massive hydrocarbon reserves.

Some analysts were surprised at the level of the offer.

"It is 37 percent below our fair value, and the reasons for this discount are not clear," said Dmitry Lukashov from Aton brokerage.

"We will recommend to those of our clients, who are shareholders in Nelson, to vote against this deal," said Lukashov.

But Andrei Gromadin of MDM Bank said he considered Nelson expensive at current levels and Kaha Kiknavelidze from Brunswick UBS added that LUKOIL was offering to pay a price in line with recent transactions in the Kazakh oil sector.

"LUKOIL wants to pay $12.6 per barrel of proved reserves and $7.9 per barrel of proved and probable reserves, which is close to what CNPC offered for PetroKazakhstan ," he said.

China's CNPC offered to pay $4.18 billion for Toronto-listed Kazakh producer, PetroKazakhstan, valuing the firm at $10.7 per barrel of proved reserves -- one of the highest valuations in the history of oil deals in Kazakhstan and well above average Russian levels.

LUKOIL has a 50-50 joint venture with PetroKazakhstan, known as Turgai Petroleum, and it said this week it wanted to buy out the remaining 50 percent of the venture from CNPC before the deal closes.

"It is obvious that LUKOIL wants to increase its presence in Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea region in general," said Kiknavelidze.

Kazakhstan wants to triple oil output to 3 million barrels per day by 2015 due to three major projects, led by global oil majors, but analysts say that mid-sized fields, like those of Nelson, also offer attractive positions in the booming industry.

Nelson has stakes in several oil firms or separate fields in Kazakhstan, including Alibekmola, Kozhasai, Zhambai, North Buzachi, Karakuduk and Arman fields.

The firm says its net proven and probable reserves are around 270 million barrels, but its total reserves in place could be potentially as high as 2 billion barrels.

© Reuters Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Reproduction or redistribution of Reuters content, including framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.