3SOF

Some of the indices, like the Russell that J.B. mentioned, have broken out to new highs.  The QQQQ has lagged a bit, but is poised for a move higher if it can take out the top of the range we've been in over the first half of 2005 (dark black horizontal line on the chart).  Looks like an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

Note that there are several targets in the $42s-$43s, if the QQQQ can break out.  (Sorry about all of the junk on the chart  :-[).

ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO CHART:

The QQQQs got the Inverse H&S breakout the day after my last post in July (see above).  Nothing real exciting since, but it still looks okay, with targets in the mid-42.00s to mid-43.00s still IN PLAY.

Both selloffs back below the neckline in late August and in late September found support at the bottom of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Kumo (Cloud) which you'll see on the next chart, so while it was sloppy, it looks okay as well.

Uptrend still in tact.

QQQQ looks terrible on a technical basis. Here are some charts I made in my forum/blog. Looking like we may test 2 year trendline support very soon.  >:(

QQQQ October 6 2005
QQQQ testing upsloping trendline support. A breakdown of the trendline means a test of $38.20
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=800&stc=1)

QQQQ - October 7 2005
The QQQQ hit trendline resistance and was driven down hard during the first week of October. Significant support at $38.00 now supports the QQQQ. A breakdown at these levels signals longer term weakness for the major markets.
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=803&stc=1)

QQQQ looking terrible on a technical basis. $38.00 support cut through with ease. Next major support near $36.00. Look for a small bounce at $37.05...
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=807&stc=1)

QQQQ - October 17 2005
QQQQ broke major trendlines in the past 2 weeks trading. Very bearish signal heading into the winter months. Could be looking at a correction all the way back to the 2 year upsloping support line of 36.75. Anyone else care to share their analysis or insight?
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=818&stc=1)

Approaching breakout levels...

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 13, 2005, 04:03:52 AM
Note that there are several targets in the $42s-$43s, if the QQQQ can break out.  (Sorry about all of the junk on the chart  :-[).

The 6-month Inverse H&S pattern broke out on July 14, 2005, the day after that post, putting a Target of 42.78 IN PLAY (scroll back to original post).  Since the pattern formed over 6-months, the time projection for when we would expect the target to come in would be six months hence, roughly January 14, 2006.

42.78 MADE on January 9, 2006.  

The May 13, 2005 Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout put a target of 43.43 IN PLAY.  That pattern formed over five months, so the time projection was by (roughly) October, 15, 2005.  Sometimes, you get a Fibonacci extention of time, like 1.618 longer than it took for the pattern to form.    At any rate, we missed that target by twelve cents: the January 11, 2006 high only was 43.31, so that could be it.

There's also a "lost target"  of 43.68 still IN PLAY from the November, 2004 breakout (not shown on this chart).  I thought we'd get there on the January rally, but we fell short of that one, too.  We'll see if that gets MADE later on.



 

i wonder if the nasdaq can go higher this year, or if it will go lower
such a tight range it's been in for the last couple months

Big Volume in this LT breakdown.

(http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=573105&stc=1)

The QQQQ hung onto key 40.16-40.19 support by a hair, closing at 40.19.  The low on the day was 39.96.  Given that the underlying NASDAQ 100 closed just about on its low, it makes you wonder if the QQQQ close right on support wasn't manufactured.

???  ::)

At any rate, the QQQQ is "on the ropes" here, and needs to rally.  It already has shown signs of trouble which we'll look at below, and it wouldn't look good to take out 2006 support (40.16 - 40.19) on a closing basis.  Target: 37.33 would be IN PLAY.

Signs of Trouble:

1. After the November - December, 2005 "Mini" H&S Top target of 40.30 MADE during the first session of 2006, the QQQQ went on a short-squeezing seven session Parabolic screamer to the upside, to 43.31 on January 11, 2006.  That's the high for year, so far.

Anecdotally, David Randolph's "gut feeling" about a high in the QQQQs at the start of the year was uncannily accurate...only several days early.  He gets an applause for that when he returns.

:D ;D

2. Parabolic rallies often have "Parabolic Returns"  to the origin of the rally. The Parabolic Rally began at 40.16 on January 3, 2006.  The Parabolic Return to 40.19 occurred on March 10,2006.

"Thud."  At 40.19 on March 10, 2006, we were right back where we started the year.  "Let's try this again, only let's be more reasonable this time!"

:D  ;D

3. The rally off the March 10, 2006 low looked much better, in that a pattern was built (the Ascending Triangle, in purple).  Rallies tend to be more solid and more sustainable when they come off a base/pattern of some kind.

4. The Ascending Triangle breakout above 42.01 in late March, 2006 put Target: 43.83 IN PLAY.

Math:

High of the pattern: 42.01
Low of the pattern: 40.19

42.01 - 40.19 = 1.82 points, added to the breakout above 42.01 = 43.83 IN PLAY.

5. The breakout was "sloppy" though, to say the least.  By "sloppy," I mean that the top of the Ascending Triangle at 42.01 got violated going into both the April 17 and the May 3 lows.  Very "sloppy."

6. Whle the "sloppy" action was going on, the QQQQ formed another bullish pattern, a Bullish Falling Wedge (the pattern in red), so things still looked okay.  The "sloppiness" was justifiable: the QQQQ was forming another bullish pattern: a Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in red).

Since the trend in the QQQQ was bullish, that pattern "should have been" a bullish continuation pattern, and it "should have' broken out to the upside.  It didn't.  It broke to the DOWNSIDE on Thursday, May 11, putting target: 39.455 IN PLAY.

Uh-oh-h-h....that's a whole different ball game right there!

7. Also on Thursday, May 11, the QQQQ broke a one-year up trendline (black line).

8. The Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple) target of 43.83 went ON HOLD each time that that the QQQQ went below the 42.01 breakout.  That target gets CANCELLED when the QQQQ trades below 40.19, which is the low of the pattern. 

We closed  on Friday at 40.19. (We need that face on the toolbar, biting fingernails).

9. Friday, May 12 was the first close below the 200DMA since October 12, 2005. 

That October 12 close was a one-day Bullish Wolfe Wave #5 fakeout, which resolved to the upside, beginning the very next day.  The QQQQs went on an upside screamer to the Bullish Wolfe Wave Target #6 (applauded calven for pointing that out to us).

10. Technically, when the QQQQ failed to hold above the 42.01 (the Ascending Triangle breakout), the MACD failed from below its signal line, and took a nosedive below the zero line.
(I'll post that chart next).

We've got a lot of bearish evidence here.  The QQQQ needs to rally off this 40.16 - 40.19 support.

QQQQ - MACD

Melf,

Great Analysis (applaud 2X)... I couldn't add anything else to it ;) (I have the exact same view right now).

Unfortunately I was unable to post some technical comments on the NDX recently, but this is ugly right now... like you said, we need an urgent up move, or else ..... ups... I rather don't say these words.... ;)

Regards !

Just by looking on the QQQQ weekly scale ... there is no doubt the chart is really bearish, looks like we are entering in BEAR MARKET (Shorting Time)

---- The 50(SMA) weekly Scale just missed by hair
---- Histogram did not managed to tick up on the positive side
---- MACD Fast Line bounced below from Slow line... (VERY UGLY!!)

As always I must applaud Melf Elf for his great Analysis ;)

Frederick and Alister,

Thanks for the feedback, and for the charts, Alister.

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 13, 2006, 11:26:17 AM
The QQQQ hung onto key 40.16-40.19 support by a hair, closing at 40.19...it makes you wonder if the QQQQ close right on support wasn't manufactured.

??? ::)

Yesterday's close was the 40.16, which also looks curiously manufactured.  The market looked much rougher than QQQQ being down only three cents.

???

40.16-40.19 is holding up on a closing basis, though, so I'll give it the benefit of the doubt.  That looks like they might want to rally it a bit, but I'm still cautious here.  Got out of all of my trading longs yesterday, except one. 

I dont think QQQQ is going to have a bounce. Its looking super bearish right now.

Quote from: nullzero on May 16, 2006, 11:13:31 AM
I dont think QQQQ is going to have a bounce. Its looking super bearish right now.

nullzero,

The bounce lasted for five minutes at the open.   QQQQ got only to 40.26, then tanked for the remainder of the day.  I didn't expect it to get very far on those "manufactured" closes of 40.19 and 40.16 on Friday and Monday.  The NASDAQ stocks have looked much, much weaker than those closes would indicate.

I think those "manufactured" closes is what's referred to as "painting the tape."  Having the QQQQ appear to look much better than it really was by posting the two closes right at 40.16. - 40.19 support.

My APPL that I was long, for example, has been getting whacked.  It had a false breakout to 73.80 a week ago, then got grabbed by the throat and taken down.   It went as low as 64.75 today.  That's a 12.3% hit...much worse than the QQQQ closes would indicate.  A lot of stocks seem to have taken similar or worse hits.

QQQQ took a hit today... not good :(

Looks like the QQQQ is trying to close the gap... hopefully then we'll see is that is it  :o

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 17, 2006, 11:21:23 AM
Looks like the QQQQ is trying to close the gap... hopefully then we'll see is that is it  :o 39.36

39.31 now... ARSH!!!!!  ;D

Looks like the gap was closed... and a reound has occured.. lets just hope the bulls will take over...  :P 39.55 and recovering....:P

looks like its down again ...39.37.... argh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o

ok am I annoying anyone yet.... ;D

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 13, 2006, 11:26:17 AM
6. Whle the "sloppy" action was going on, the QQQQ formed another bullish pattern, a Bullish Falling Wedge (the pattern in red), so things still looked okay.  The "sloppiness" was justifiable: the QQQQ was forming another bullish pattern: a Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in red).

Since the trend in the QQQQ was bullish, that pattern "should have been" a bullish continuation pattern, and it "should have' broken out to the upside.  It didn't.  It broke to the DOWNSIDE on Thursday, May 11, putting target: 39.455 IN PLAY.

Uh-oh-h-h....that's a whole different ball game right there!

Falling Wedge Target: 39.455 MADE yesterday.

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 17, 2006, 01:29:33 PM
looks like its down again ...39.37.... argh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o

ok am I annoying anyone yet.... ;D

B.,

Nah-hh-h, I liked your "play by play" account.   ;D

On the breaks of the "Bullish" (wasn't bullish) Falling Wedge...the up trendline off the April, 2005 low...the 200DMA...and, 40.16-40.19 support...The NASDAQ is down eight days in a row, for the first time since September, 1994!

:o

A ninth down day today doesn't seem likely, but if we get it, it would be the first time since May, 1984.

:o

After a beating like the market has taken here, it's pretty easy to get "lathered up for Bear," so I'm making an extra effort to be on the alert for downside fakeouts (maybe AAPL), positive divergences like we had last October when it looked like we might be going down the crapper, etc.

At the October, 2005 low, we had a nice postive in the MACD histogram.  At the March, 2006 low of 40.19, we had TWO positive divergences in the MACD histogram.

Indicators don't always give postive divergences at bottoms, or negative divergences at tops. We might not get that.  But, when stocks are tanking below support like the QQQQ has been, I at least like to see some evidence that the bleeding has stopped.

MACD chart next.

QQQQ - MACD Chart

Nice work Melf, as always. Thanks and appl

uc.

Quote from: usedcasting on May 19, 2006, 09:31:43 AM
Nice work Melf, as always. Thanks and appl

uc.

Thanks, uc.  FINALLY an up day in the QQQQ!

Bullish Hammer (also a harami, I suppose) that looks like it might produce at least a relief rally, back to all of the broken support that I outlined last weekend.  Maybe one of those "One-to-Three Day Wonders" to the upside, but at this point, I think that any rally is suspect.

Stocks, in general, haven't seemed to react well to earnings which is suggestive of a lot of good news having already been factored into the market:

1. Some stocks made a high on earnings: GIGM.

2. Some stocks broke patterns on earnings: BEN

3. Some stocks re-tested broken patterns on earnings, and failed: BBC

4. Some stocks re-tanked, or even crashed on earnings: DIET..TMTA (that happens even in strong markets, though).

My "overall" feeling about earnings, however, has been that it didn't matter how good the earnings were, "We're selling the news."  Just my impression.

market looking ugly

Quote from: nullzero on May 22, 2006, 11:57:53 AM
market looking ugly

nullzero,

Yeah, unfortunately. 

There's been a lot of damage done the charts since the critical breaks in the QQQQs on May 11 and May 12, when I began this discussion that weekend.  No better example than your DHI short.

That next Monday morning, May 15, DHI broke below a year-long Double Top, taking out 28.78, the October 27, 2005 low.  That's the middle of the Double Top.  It looks like an "M-shape."

Prior to that break, DHI printed 28.78 exactly on May 4, 2006, went into an Ascending Triangle formation, broke below the triangle, then  broke below critical 28.78 support.

(We need a face on the toolbar that looks real nauseated, like it's just about to you-know-what).

That action  isn't "just a normal pullback," as many analysts on CNBC are saying.  That's a serious break below a one-year Double Top in a stock (and sector) that has had a terrific six-year run to the upside.  I remember sometime last summer calculating that Hovnanian (HOV) was up something like 2,700% since its late 1999 low.

:o  :o  :o

When a sector has had a run like that, it's not a question of "if," but "when" it's going to have a sizeable correction.  That time already arrived for DHI and the other builders, but the date "when" DHI has a serious CIT (change in trend) was May 15, 2006.  Unless/until DHI closes back above 28.78, its in full-blown Bearish Mode, and its at risk of making the downside target that is IN PLAY.

A rally back to broken support at 28.78 for a re-test at some point would be "a normal pullback," but it woud be a "normal pullback" to year-long RESISTANCE. 

DHI is just one example of why I said yesterday that I'd view any rally here in the QQQQ as suspect. 

wow what crazy action today was...
tanking from open till 12 and rebound from there on, forming a hammer...
volume was enormous.... techinically, the qqqq closed above the support of 38.23

My prediction is that we will get a 3 day rally maybe more upto the 39 level before seeing another session of down days...

Be safe and GLTA

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 23, 2006, 05:52:06 AM
DHI is just one example of why I said yesterday that I'd view any rally here in the QQQQ as suspect.

The rally from the May 24 low was suspect, indeed.  It was a Bear Flag rally, back toward the broken Double Top at 40.16-40.19.  The Bear Flag high was 40.00, just below the break.

Yesterday's low of 37.49 was within $0.16 of the Double Top Target: 37.33 that has been IN PLAY since the May 12 break.  That could be "close enough" for another rally attempt, but this isn't much of a base to go up against the four-month Double Top.

In case Alien reads this: The solid green line is the line of scrimmage.  All of the candles above it are playing for the Bears.  The candles below it (since the May 12 breakdown) are playing for the Bulls.

The Bulls are outnumbered 4-1, and are the underdogs.

The QQQQ is trading at 37.30 in pre-market trading.  If that holds up, the Double Top target of 37.33 will get MADE at the open.

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still will be IN PLAY.

Melf Elf those Bears just can't be beat.  >:D  Whats a bull to do?  It's gonna be a long hot summer the way things are going.

Alien

Quote from: alien41 on June 13, 2006, 09:08:17 AM
Melf Elf those Bears just can't be beat.  >:D  Whats a bull to do?  It's gonna be a long hot summer the way things are going.

Alien,

Yeah, those Bears have been mean...mean...mean.  >:D  >:D  >:D

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 13, 2006, 08:18:46 AM
The QQQQ is trading at 37.30 in pre-market trading. If that holds up, the Double Top target of 37.33 will get MADE at the open.

The 37.33 Double Top target MADE right after the open.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 13, 2006, 08:18:46 AM
The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still will be IN PLAY.

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still is IN PLAY.  In addition, the QQQQ broke below the neckline of a H&S Top on Tuesday, putting a target of 36.86 IN PLAY.

The neckline for today, June 29, comes in at 37.95.  The gap up open in the QQQQ this morning was 37.96, and the low so far today is exactly 37.95., smack on the neckline.

So, ahead of the Fed news, in a market that is in a downtrend, with two downside targets IN PLAY, we've gapped higher above the neckline this morning, and are rallying hard.

It has me scratching my head a bit, that in this technical circumstance, players are being so brave, stepping in ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon.

???  ::)
It would seem to make more sense if we were down 100-200 points this morning, if fear and trembling about the Fed news, then have a nice upside reversal.

The market doesn't always make sense, though.  ;D  >:D

Here's the hourly chart, with the H&S Top, and this morning's gap up opening above the neckline.

The GDP news just gave the FED the go ahead to come down hard on intrest rates.... great  :-\

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 29, 2006, 11:27:36 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 13, 2006, 08:18:46 AM
The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still will be IN PLAY.

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still is IN PLAY.  In addition, the QQQQ broke below the neckline of a H&S Top on Tuesday, putting a target of 36.86 IN PLAY.

The neckline for today, June 29, comes in at 37.95.  The gap up open in the QQQQ this morning was 37.96, and the low so far today is exactly 37.95., smack on the neckline.

So, ahead of the Fed news, in a market that is in a downtrend, with two downside targets IN PLAY, we've gapped higher above the neckline this morning, and are rallying hard.

It has me scratching my head a bit, that in this technical circumstance, players are being so brave, stepping in ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon.

???  ::)
It would seem to make more sense if we were down 100-200 points this morning, if fear and trembling about the Fed news, then have a nice upside reversal.

The market doesn't always make sense, though.  ;D  >:D

CNBC keeps reporting that the reason for the rally is that many hedge funds are dying for a few extra percentage points on their end of quarter results, so are willing to gamble on the slight rally that is going on.  They say that end of quarter and Fed policy statements seldom ever happen at the same time, so that is what is going on supposedly.

Fed news out.. raise interest rate by 0.25% as expected.. qqqq seems to be rallying..
cheers...
B

Quote from: tokyopua on June 29, 2006, 01:57:36 PM
CNBC keeps reporting that the reason for the rally is that many hedge funds are dying for a few extra percentage points on their end of quarter results, so are willing to gamble on the slight rally that is going on.  They say that end of quarter and Fed policy statements seldom ever happen at the same time, so that is what is going on supposedly.

tokyopua,

I've been hearing that all day, too.  It surprises me that the market is being this accommodating, to allow those guys to have their expected end of quarter rally.

;D  >:D 

By the way, it looks like fous' Hound of the Baskervilles signal was good for a 50 pts. rally in the NASDAQ, so far. The buy signal was June 19 when the MACD histogram crossed above the zero line.

Unfortunately, I didn't get long.  The bearish chart patterns kept me out.  >:(

hi melf,
correction on the hound of the baskerville signal . repost from my post on xing board.
thanks maxi

hi,
it is one of the strongest signals but it is not called "hound of the baskervilles."
the hound has the opposite effect.
from "come into my trading room"
" when a super strong signal doesn't pan out it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market.................................but the failure of a divergance of macd hist. is an exception."
" i call this the hound of the baskervilles signal, after a story by sir arthur conan doyle. sherlock holmes was called to investigate a murder on a country estate. his clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being commited. that indicated the dog knew the criminal, and the murder was an inside job. sherlock holmes recieved his signal not from the action but from the lack of expected action. when a divergance of macd hist. fails to produce a reversal, it gives a hound of the baskervilles signal."

maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 29, 2006, 03:32:44 PM
hi melf,
correction on the hound of the baskerville signal . repost from my post on xing board.

maxi,

Wow, that was interesting! Thanks, and Applause.

Quote
" when a super strong signal doesn't pan out it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market.................................but the failure of a divergance of macd hist. is an exception."

Okay, this particular signal hasn't failed, since we've had a nice rally, so it's not a "Hound of the Baskervilles" signal, as you say.

Quote
his clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being commited. that indicated the dog knew the criminal, and the murder was an inside job.

I am crazy for murder mysteries, and I would have sworn that it was Agatha Chrisite, with the dog that didn't bark, indicating that the dog knew the murderer, and that it was an inside job.

Shows you how wrong you can be!, And, it shows you that I need to re-read my Arthur Conan Doyle, and my Agatha Christie (two of my all-time favorites).

Maybe we should call this "The Mouse Trap" signal, since it sure looks like a Bear Trap.  I'm pretty sure that's Agatha Christie, but it's been many years since I've read those books.

Have you ever been to a "Murder Mystery" dinner, or weekend?

I highly recommend it.  Way-y too much fun...you must try it.

:D  ;D

Clues in Potted Palms.  Or, a clue under an unpretentious fern, out in the garden.

At dinner, I was in conversation with a delightful woman across from me, who suddenly dropped dead, right into her Tomato Aspic.  People can be so rude, nowadays.  It isn't at all like it used to be, when people would be polite, and wait until after dessert and coffee, to be murdered.

:D  >:D

Welcome to MORPHOLOGY 101.  ;D

Sometimes, patterns "morph," or change into other patterns, which makes it difficult figuring them out.

Off the June 13 low, we had a Bearish Rising Wedge, then TWO pattern morphs:

Patten #1: The Bearish Rising Wedge, in AQUA.  Those often "morph" into H&S Tops, like this one did.

Pattern #2: The H&S Top, in RED.  That broke to the downside, then we got the gap up yesterday, smack on the neckline, which put the downside target ON HOLD.

When the Head of a H&S Top is taken out to the upside, the pattern measurement is added to the Head to derive the upsde target.

But, wait a minute...

The slope of the recent lows is 0.02 per day.  If we create a parallel line with the same slope off the recent high of 38.99, that trendlline comes in today, June 30, at 39.13.

This morning's open was 39.12.  The high, so far, was 39.14, made in the first minute of trading.

Pattern #3: A Bear Flag, in BLUE.

All 3 patterns are bearish, consistent with the overall trend since the mid-May breakdown.

An upside takeout of this morning's high of 39.14, which also would be a takeout of the top of the Bear Flag, in BLUE, would favor the bulls, especially if it's on a closing basis.

market getting wacked today

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 30, 2006, 10:38:50 AM
Welcome to MORPHOLOGY 101.  ;D

The slope of the recent lows is 0.02 per day.  If we create a parallel line with the same slope off the recent high of 38.99, that trendlline comes in today, June 30, at 39.13.

This morning's open was 39.12.  The high, so far, was 39.14, made in the first minute of trading.

The 39.14 high at the top of the Bear Flag remains the high off the June 13 low.  :(

Quote
All 3 patterns are bearish, consistent with the overall trend since the mid-May breakdown.

The downside action since June 30 has borne that out.  :(

Quote from: nullzero on July 07, 2006, 02:58:29 PM
market getting wacked today

nullzero,

Whacked all the way back to the bottom of the Bear Flag.  :(

We're within a hair of breaking it to the downside.   That isn't looking very friendly at the moment.

"Honor Thy Stops."

Im still 90% short in my portfolio  ;). So this last down turn I saw about a 6% gain overall in portfolio. Fundamentally I believe we are due for a big decline not just speaking technically. The real estate boom is over and the use your house as an ATM is over as well. So consumer spending will definately be down in the coming quaters. Resturants might be good short espically if they bounce. CMG looks good for short.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 08, 2006, 04:44:53 PM
[Whacked all the way back to the bottom of the Bear Flag.  :(

We're within a hair of breaking it to the downside.   That isn't looking very friendly at the moment

The QQQQ broke the Bear Flag to the downside today when 37.53 got printed.  That puts Targets: 37.16 IN PLAY (the bottom of the Bear Flag) and 35.56 IN PLAY.

37.02 still is IN PLAY from the last Bear Flag break on June 6.

The bottom Bottom Bollinger Band came in on Friday at 37.1699.

37.02-37.16 is important support.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 10, 2006, 03:02:26 PM
The QQQQ broke the Bear Flag to the downside today when 37.53 got printed.  That puts Targets: 37.16 IN PLAY (the bottom of the Bear Flag) and 35.56 IN PLAY.

The 37.16 target MADE yesterday.  The QQQQ scrambled back above the bottom of the Bear Flag, so the 35.56 target is ON HOLD.

Quote
37.02 still is IN PLAY from the last Bear Flag break on June 6.

37.02-37.16 is important support.

Yesterday's low was 37.08, right in the middle of that range of support, so six cents could be "close enough" to consider the 37.02 target MADE, as well.

Yesterday's candle wasn't a strong reversal stick, but the QQQQ has got a chance at a double-bottom here, at 37.16 and 37.08.

Time to rally outta this danger zone! 

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 12, 2006, 08:24:37 AM
Yesterday's low was 37.08, right in the middle of that range of support, so six cents could be "close enough" to consider the 37.02 target MADE, as well.

The 37.02 Bear Flag target has MADE, so that's now a moot point.

Quote
Yesterday's candle wasn't a strong reversal stick, but the QQQQ has got a chance at a double-bottom here, at 37.16 and 37.08.

Time to rally outta this danger zone! 

No double-bottom.  :(

Quote
The QQQQ scrambled back above the bottom of the Bear Flag, so the 35.56 target is ON HOLD.

The QQQQ didn't hang on to the bottom of the Bear Flag for very long this morning.  The Second Bear FlagTarget: 35.56 is back IN PLAY.

thanks for your work on this.  I'm not great at charts but doesn't it look like INDU and COMP just broke through below some very very important support lines?

Quote from: brandyjoco on July 12, 2006, 02:11:04 PM
thanks for your work on this.  I'm not great at charts but doesn't it look like INDU and COMP just broke through below some very very important support lines?

brandy,

See my post on the NDX in Frederick's "How Low Can We Go?" folder.

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 23, 2006, 05:52:06 AM
May 15, DHI broke below a year-long Double Top, taking out 28.78, the October 27, 2005 low.  That's the middle of the Double Top.  It looks like an "M-shape."

That action  isn't "just a normal pullback," as many analysts on CNBC are saying.  That's a serious break below a one-year Double Top in a stock (and sector) that has had a terrific six-year run to the upside.  I remember sometime last summer calculating that Hovnanian (HOV) was up something like 2,700% since its late 1999 low.

DHI is just one example of why I said yesterday that I'd view any rally here in the QQQQ as suspect. 

I was reminded of those comments that I made to nullzero two months ago at the broken Double Top when, today,  DHI finally lowered their 2006 estimate by 30%, from $5.25-$5.35 to $3.65.

Great example of the old saw, "First the chart...then the news."  We saw the breakdown in the chart in mid-May, then the bad news came out today, two months after the breakdown.

It's also a good example of why I say that I'm distrustful of what "appear to be" good fundamentals, when a chart is breaking down, and of why I say that I defer to the price action in the chart at that point, and ignore the fundamentals.   

DHI recently was referred to as "The Teflon Homebuilder" because it was about the only bulider that hadn't lowered its numbers.  DHI simply held off lowering for as long as it could, would be my guess, given the 30% drop in guidance.  They must have had some iinkling before today that prospects weren't exactly knocking their door down, wanting a new home.

At any rate, DHI gapped down today and currently is off 8%, near $21, off 24% from the point of the breakdown.

"The market is a discounting mechanism...rule of thumb is roughly 6 months into the future."  DHI was almost $42 in January...it's $21 in July, down almost 50%

In terms of the NAZ/QQQQ, yesterday's break of the H&S Top in the NAZ 100, like DHI, also was a one-year top, so we need to be careful with that.

Its hard to touch any long position in a market like this. I think the only stocks that can hold up in this market are strong funadmental high yield div. stocks, any stock related to oil that is fundamentally strong ex. (SU, HES, VLO, XOM) and will benefit from higher oil prices, commoditys stocks and ETFs  like ex. (GLD, SLV, PD, FCX, N), and foreign stocks, ETF, foreign currency.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 14, 2006, 04:06:31 PM
Alister,
Nice job on MRVL and on the overall market since May. Applause.

You too melf elf, you've done a great job by posting your analysis & being patience hitting the keyboard (you got triple applause from me ;) gotta wait an hour though :D ;D)

Quote from: Terliso on May 15, 2006, 02:41:19 AM
Just by looking on the QQQQ weekly scale ... there is no doubt the chart is really bearish, looks like we are entering in BEAR MARKET (Shorting Time)

---- The 50(SMA) weekly Scale just missed by hair
---- Histogram did not managed to tick up on the positive side
---- MACD Fast Line bounced below from Slow line... (VERY UGLY!!)

As always I must applaud Melf Elf for his great Analysis ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 12, 2006, 02:00:46 PM
[The QQQQ didn't hang on to the bottom of the Bear Flag for very long this morning.  The Second Bear FlagTarget: 35.56 is back IN PLAY.

The Bear Flag Target: 35.56 just MADE.

Thanks, Alister!  ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 18, 2006, 01:52:41 PM
[The Bear Flag Target: 35.56 just MADE.

The low on the day came in a few minutes later, at 35.54.  The QQQQ rallied and finished out the session on a Bullish Doji Star Hammer which "should be" good enough for a rally here off the Bear Flag target that  MADE.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 19, 2006, 06:33:24 AM
The low on the day came in a few minutes later, at 35.54.  The QQQQ rallied and finished out the session on a Bullish Doji Star Hammer which "should be" good enough for a rally here off the Bear Flag target that  MADE.

Wow, it sure was!  :o

While yesterday's rally looked very impressive, that's the nature of a bear market rally.  They come from out of the blue, and they often are very sharp to the upside, like the Fed rally on June 29 to the top of the Bear Flag on the QQQQ chart above.

Yesterday's rally to a high of NDX 1498 probably still has some room on the upside, to broken support of the year-long top at NDX 1511-1515, and possibly above that, to the bottom of the the broken Bear Flag, or to the bottom of the broken channel (blue), but I'd want to see a lot more than yesterday's snapback rally toward resistance.

Re-tests of broken support (NDX 1511-1515, in this case) are common.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 20, 2006, 05:35:41 AM
I'd want to see a lot more than yesterday's snapback rally toward resistance.

Re-tests of broken support (NDX 1511-1515, in this case) are common.

Gap up at the open to NDX 1497, well below the broken neckline of the H&S Top, then Wednesday's rally was completely reversed to the downside.

intersting to see that the qqqq might be gong thru another bearish formation...

What you think MELF?

Quote from: beroznikmal on July 28, 2006, 03:11:01 PM
intersting to see that the qqqq might be gong thru another bearish formation...

What you think MELF?

b.,

Yes, that's how it looks.

The QQQQ now is at DOUBLE resistance: Friday's high was 37.14, at the top of the Bear Flag.  The low of the last Bear Flag was 37.16.

If we get through there, next DOUBLE resistance is the bottom of the last Bear Flag  and the 50DMA, both at about 37.90.

The NAZ 100 closed just about smack on a re-test of the neckline on the broken one-year H&S Top.  I'll show you that chart next.

The neckline of the broken one-year H&S Top came in on Friday, July 28, at 1510.78.
The high on the day was 1511.00.
The close on the day was 1510.30.

Given the reasonably good strength of Friday's rally, I doubt that Friday's numbers happen to be a coincidence.  Players know where that neckline resistance is, thus the cap on Friday's rally, right at the neckline.

If the NAZ 100 were to trade perfectly, technically, we would see it do a back flip off that neckline on Monday, and continue down into the autumn, toward the H&S Top target that is IN PLAY.

Unfortunately, the market doesn't always trade in perfect textbook fashion.  ;D  >:D

Depending on things like earnings, market sentiment (which has been much too bearish to suit me...bearish sentiment has been at multi-year highs), amount of shorting that has been done that could fuel a rally, etc. the NAZ could break back above the neckline and test other levels of resistance (e.g., the bottom of the last Bear Flag...the blue trendline off the August, 2004 low).

Friday's close is a perfect setup for an immediate failure here on the re-test of the broken neckline.  If the NAZ doesn't fail here, I'd be cautious about having too much exposure to shorts for awhile.  There could be an attempt at a big short squeeze.

Not so sure there is any head and shoulders pattern to be found but is a bit overbought now but good chances we can see a summer rally-- at least much better then it was a week ago.

The 4-year cycle lows are hard to call as  there are usually more then one and no way to know if the first or second will be the lowest one. We may have see the low of the year allready but I think it wil go lower on the secodn try. Maybe it is going to go back in September or October and test the 38% or 50% on the NDX weekly chart. Right now there are quite a lot of nice charts setting up so I put the odds on an August rally first.

We will see what happens when it gets back up to the trend line on the daily chart. That is the most common place for shorts to be waiting.

Quote from: metro on July 29, 2006, 07:24:55 PM
Not so sure there is any head and shoulders pattern to be found

metro,

The neckline of the H&S Top is 1515.42 the week of October 14, 2005 and 1511.53 the week of June 16, 2006.  The Right Shoulder that formed after the June 13, 2006 low, when quite a number of analysts were calling the June 13 low a "capitualation low," was a Bear Flag.

Whether we agree or not that the past year is a H&S Top, in addition to the other downside targets that have MADE since I began posting on this thread the weekend of May 12, 2006, prior to May 15 break of the Double Top in the NAZ 100 (1633-1634) and QQQQ (40.16-40.19), the Right Shoulder/Bear Flag target of 1448.46 also MADE on July 18 on the break of that 1515 - 1511 neckline.  The low was NDX 1446.11.

So up to this point, all of the Bearish targets that we've identified have MADE, and obviously, June 13 wasn't a capitulation low.  In the process of making all of those downside targets, we've also broken below an entire year's worth of trading when we took out 1515-1511.  We're currently at 1510 as of Friday's close, so everything above here is resistance, going back one year.

Quote
but is a bit overbought now but good chances we can see a summer rally-- at least much better then it was a week ago.

Entirely possible.  As I mentioned yesterday, bearish sentiment has been at high levels not seen since the secondary low of March, 2003, and the last 3 weeks in the candlesticks sure look like a Bullish Morning Star pattern (the middle candle is an Inverted Hammer), so we certainly could rally back above the 1515-1511 neckline here.  The fact that all of the downside targets have MADE (except the H&S Top target) also suggests the possibility of rally here.

Quote
We will see what happens when it gets back up to the trend line on the daily chart. That is the most common place for shorts to be waiting.

The bottom of channel off the August, 2004 low (blue line) comes in this week at NDX 1559.85. It rises a couple of points each week (see chart).

The bottom of the Right Shoulder/Bear Flag, at about NDX 1542 this week, also is resistance.

Where the bearish case would start to fall apart, in my view, is if we close back above that channel (blue), and paricularly if we close above the high of the Right Shoulder, NDX 1590.83.  I posted several examples this weekend of Right Shoulders getting taken out to the upside in the SWIR (short) folder on the Stock Picking Board, if you're interested.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 29, 2006, 01:27:56 PM
The neckline of the broken one-year H&S Top came in on Friday, July 28, at 1510.78.
The high on the day was 1511.00.
The close on the day was 1510.30.

Given the reasonably good strength of Friday's rally, I doubt that Friday's numbers happen to be a coincidence.  Players know where that neckline resistance is, thus the cap on Friday's rally, right at the neckline.

Yesterday's close: 1509.43 on a doji star, right at the neckline again. 

A takeout of yesterday's low 1501.78 will look weak.  Interesting that we've got what looks like a Bullish Morning Star on the weekly chart, but a close today of 1499.18 or lower will be a Bearish Everning Star on the daily chart, coming off neckline resistance.  Naturally, it would need downside follow-thru.

Bull and Bear struggle here at the neckline.

MELF,
I think the QQQQ just broke an bearish Wedge...
what you think....
:P

Quote from: beroznikmal on August 01, 2006, 10:45:46 PM
MELF,
I think the QQQQ just broke an bearish Wedge...
what you think....
:P

b.,

That's difficult to say because you need to start the Bearish Wedge at the secondary low on July 21 to have a Bearish Rising Wedge, as you've done, but if you include all of the trading since the July 18 low, it comes out a Bear Flag, as you also have done.  Nice work!  Applause.

Whichever it is (or both), it isn't looking very pretty, is it?

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 01, 2006, 09:32:52 AM
A takeout of yesterday's low 1501.78 will look weak.

We not only took out 1501.78, we gapped down below it, to 1498.17.
:( 

Quote
Interesting that we've got what looks like a Bullish Morning Star on the weekly chart, but a close today of 1499.18 or lower will be a Bearish Everning Star on the daily chart, coming off neckline resistance.

We not only closed at 1499.18 or low, the high on the day was the 1498.17 open.

:(

We also closed at 1484.94, below the 1485.96 low of last Thursday's white candle.

:(

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 29, 2006, 01:27:56 PM
If the NAZ 100 were to trade perfectly, technically, we would see it do a back flip off that neckline on Monday, and continue down into the autumn, toward the H&S Top target that is IN PLAY.

We got the back flip off the broken neckline.

:(

Quote
Naturally, it would need downside follow-thru.

The NAZ 100 (and QQQQ) are vulnerable here, below the neckline.  It represents one year's worth of  resistance, and the market is recognizing that at the moment, and backing off from there on the back flip to the downside.

 

I anticipate, with everything that is going on, we will have another leg down....
B

The way the stock market is trading kind of reminds me of that one stock you have a position in that will go slightly your way then unexpectantly go the other way... just when you about to give up it goes your way big time. I continue to hold all short positions through this rally because I think the BIG DROP is coming at some point in the near future. DOW up 100 points... on what though? Many people think there is manipulation going on by people like the "Plunge Protection Team" this has been a hot topic on the boards and even some respected people in the stock market believe this can be the case. Well for those that havent shorted maybe its a good time to take position when the DOW is over 11200... If the FED decides to raise interest rates again which I believe they will it will kill the markets in the short term.

Quote from: nullzero on August 02, 2006, 12:08:05 PM
The way the stock market is trading kind of reminds me of that one stock you have a position in that will go slightly your way then unexpectantly go the other way... just when you about to give up it goes your way big time.

nullz,

Yeah, that's the nature of these Flags and Wedges, and we've had several of them since the May 11 break of the Bull Flag that wasn't bullish.   

Down..Up...Down...Up...Down....

Since the May 11 break, we know that all of the patterns ahve resolved to the downside, and that all 4 of the targets have MADE  (the H&S target still is IN PLAY as long as we're below the neckline.  It goes ON HOLD above it).

After the back flip off the 1515-1511 neckline on Tuesday, the market came right back there yesterday. The high on the day was 1510.51, smack on the trendline again, where the market backed off, for a close of 1500.48.

Still a Bull and Bear struggle at the neckline.

Interestingly, the bottom of Beroznikmal's Bearish Rising Wedge came in yesterday at 1501.58.  We got through it for another re-test of the neckline, but that's still resistance.  We backed off and closed slightly below B's Bearish Rising Wedge, at 1500.48. 

As the chart stands, that close gives some validation to B's Bearish Rising Wedge pattern.  It needs downside follow-thru, of course.

Notice that on all of the following pattern breaks, the market tried to regain the pattern, like yesterday, but failed:

1. The break of 1634-1633 support on May 15.

2. The break of Bear Flag #1 on June 6.

3. The break of Bear Flag #2 on July 10.

On each of those breaks, the market got slightly back inside the pattern, then tanked to the pattern targets, all of which MADE.

Notice also that Bear Flag #2 took awhile to form, and that it went back above the channel (blue line)...below the channel...above it...then below it, broke the Bear Flag, and the 1448.46 target MADE on a dead drop from the June 30 high (post-Fed rally) to the July 18 low.

This could take awhile. 

If the Bulls can take out the 1515-1511 neckline, we likely will see metro's rally, and likely to the bottom of Bear Flag #2 (roughly NDX 1542) or the broken channel (blue) at NDX 1559.85 this week.

Possibly higher.  We'll try to follow it as best we can.

Once again the Nasdaq rallied up to break the neckline but closed under the neckline. IMO, the bearish wedge/flag is still in play. Monday should be interesting, the market is telling me it is in Bearish mod which tells me that the feds will most likely continue to rise the interest rates come teusday which will cause the overall market TANK...

AGAIN just my opinion... ;D
B

Quote from: beroznikmal on August 03, 2006, 09:27:11 PM
Once again the Nasdaq rallied up to break the neckline but closed under the neckline.

B.,

Yeah, it's still a Bull and Bear battle. 

Quote
IMO, the bearish wedge/flag is still in play.

Yes, the close was just inside your Bearish Rising Wedge (not shown on this chart), right at the neckline again.  On this chart, I've drawn it as a Bear Flag (purple) because the bottom of the flag came in yesterday at 1483.44, and yesterday's low was 1484.60.

I've also added a down trendline (black) off the May 8 high, right before the market tanked.  There are only two data points on that trendline (May 8 and July 5), but yesterday's high was dead on it, then the market backed off a little to the neckline close. 

Quote
Monday should be interesting, the market is telling me it is in Bearish mod which tells me that the feds will most likely continue to rise the interest rates come teusday which will cause the overall market TANK...

AGAIN just my opinion... ;D
B

I'm leaning slightly toward metro's summer rally, mainly because of the high Bearish Sentiment numbers.  "Expect the Unexpected."  :D

But, I'm also mindful that in a Bear Market, it is correct to be bearish, so any rally here could simply be a "relief rally," to work off bearish excess.

High bearish sentiment doesn't necessarily mean that The Bears have got it wrong.  Extreme bearish sentiment only is wrong at bottoms.  It doesn't seem likely that we bottomed at 1446 after completing a one-year top, but I'm open to the possibilty that the break was a Bear Trap.

I don't think that it was a Bear Trap, but we'll have to see, and try to play it accordingly.

Everything above the 1515-1511 neckline is one-year resistance, so even if we close above the neckline, it might be a raggedy rally, trying to chew through resistance:

1. The top of the Bear Flag comes in today at 1527.83.

2. The bottom of the last Bear Flag comes in at about 1544.

3. The bottom of the broken channel (blue) comes in at 1559.85

4. Kumo (Cloud) resistance begins at 1559.05, right at the bottom of the channel (see next post).

5. The high of the last Bear Flag is 1590.83.

Both the channel off the August, 2004 low and the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) are currently at 1559.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 04, 2006, 07:29:42 AM
Everything above the 1515-1511 neckline is one-year resistance, so even if we close above the neckline, it might be a raggedy rally, trying to chew through resistance:

1. The top of the Bear Flag comes in today at 1527.83.

We gapped up above the neckline, and above the black down trendline, got to 1530.04, two points above the Bearish Rising Wedge/Bear Flag, then they let the air out if it, and we closed back below the 1515-1511 neckline, at 1503.84.

Pretty raggedy attempt to the chew through resistance.

There are a number of ways to draw the trendlines in this Bearish Rising Wedge pattern (I'll go with that, since the trendlines eventually will converge).  The important thing is how the market responds to the trendlines.

After we connect the first two highs and lows (the first low actually was a "secondary low") and extend them out,  how did the market respond?

1. Thursday's low was about one point from the lower trendline, then the market rallied.

2. Friday's high was about two points from the upper trendline, then the market sold off.

3. Friday's low was about three points from the lower trendline, the the market rallied again.

For an index at 1500, a couple/three points from a trendline is pretty decent indication that the market is reponding to/validating those trendlines.

We could see more of this up and down, like we did in the last Bear Flag.  If we take out the bottom of the pattern, that would put 1446-1450 IN PLAY, and also would put (roughly) 1410 IN PLAY, as long as we remained below the broken Bearish Rising Wedge. 

On any break, re-tests of the bottom of the broken pattern should be expected.

On the upside, this Bearish Rising Wedge could "morph" (change) into a Bear Flag as the market tries to chew through some more resistance.  The upper trendline would need to be redrawn, and would be more parallel to the lower rail, looking more like a flag.

The top of this curremt pattern (purple) and the bottom of the last Bear Flag are next resistance.

We can see why the market has been difficult to play from both the short and the long side.  Up.  Down.  Up.  Down.  Good for quick trades, though.

Basis the weekly chart, we finished the week of July 28 on a Bullish Morning Star.  That chart next.

Doji Star this week, just below the broken neckline.  Indecision.

Open: 1506
Close: 1503

Upper Wick: 24 Points
Lower Wick: 27 Points

Could we be any more indecisive?  :D

A black candle the coming week that is at least half way below the July 28 white candle would look like a reversal of the Bullish Morning Star into a Bearish Evening Star, right at the broken neckline of the one-year H&S Top.

MELF,
Since we broke the bearish wedge today, what is the inplay value for the QQQQ?
Could you please also include the math equation for my future reference.

Thanks
Beroz

Quote from: beroznikmal on August 08, 2006, 03:49:31 PM
MELF,
Since we broke the bearish wedge today, what is the inplay value for the QQQQ?
Could you please also include the math equation for my future reference.

Thanks
Beroz

beroz,

targets are on chart.  i cant type too well now. carpal tunnel.  bottom of channel is 36.81 for today aug 9.  we are trading back above it, now at 36.95, so targets are on hold unless we go back below it.  trendline rises 0.09 per tading day, so add that daily.

  when we trade back inside a pattern, targets go on hold because it could have been a downside fakeout.  caution until it goes back below pattern.

i will explain math when i can type better.  sorry. 

Thanks
Hope you feel better..
Beroz

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 09, 2006, 11:12:19 AM
i cant type too well now. carpal tunnel. 

Take a relax melf, no problem ;) :D ;D
Health is more important than money ;)

Hey Terliso what you think of TARR today? Im targeting small to medium size home builders on shorting now.

beroz and alister,

thx, guys. you are pals   ;D.

qqqq cliose below wegde. targets still in play as long as we are below it.   

Hope you get better as well Melf.

Melf,
I got the math... basically its the
Point where the stock breaks the wedge -
(highest point before the stock fails the wedge - the lowest point of the wedge)

thanx

Looks like the qqqq rallied up to the low part of the wedge today and proceeded to move down... ( see MELF QQQQ chart)...
Looks like this is very positive for the bears...
B

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 05, 2006, 07:38:27 AM
Doji Star this week, just below the broken neckline.  Indecision.

A black candle the coming week that is at least half way below the July 28 white candle would look like a reversal of the Bullish Morning Star into a Bearish Evening Star, right at the broken neckline of the one-year H&S Top.

half way is 36.48.  this week's black candle close was 36.53, within five cents.  advantange: bears.

the recent bear flag broke ot the downside on tuesday.  the bottom of the flag came in on thursday at 33.90.  bulls rallied it to a high of 33.88, just below the flag.  bears took it down on firday, indicating a failed re-test of the broken bear flag.

advantage: bears

thx, nullz.  ;)

Howdie Melf
I tried posting this last week but I guess that it did not make it...  Just some insight into the repetitive motion injury.  I had it last year around this time for most of the summer.

2 things helped me.  First i got 3 sessions of acupuncture, it really helps increase circulation to the injured area and tendons do not have good profusion to begin with.  That provided quick relief.  then i replaced my pointers, got rid of the traditional mice and now use a touch pad on one and a thumb track ball on another and i believe that has helped keep the injury away.

I hope that this is informative for you!  we all want to be able to continue reading your knowledgable posts.

Cheers Joe

bulls made an intraday foray back inside the bear flag, but couldn't sustain the rally.

in the morphology 101 department (see june 30 post this thread for explanation of the june morphed pattern, if needed), we've got the possibility of the recent bearish rising wedge/bear flag morping into a h&s top if we take out the 36.26 neckline to the downside.  shoulders are circled in blue on the chart.

there also were print lows of 36.24...36.23...36.25 along the neckline in late july, so those would need to be taken out as well.

notice that in june, the h&s top got taken out to the upside, but it was a bull trap fakeout on the morph into the bear flag (again, see june 30 post, if needed).   tricky little devils, these patterns.

>:D  >:D  >:D

bears still have the advantage here, and the bear flag targets still are IN PLAY, but the bulls can at least put those targets ON HOLD with a close back inside the bear flag. 

tough on the bulls, though.  in addition to resistance at the bottom of the broken bear flag, the declining 50dma is just overhead.  the bulls failed right there on their last attempt on august 4.  see red number 4.

Quote from: joet on August 13, 2006, 09:03:07 PM
2 things helped me.

thx, joe.  ;)

Quote from: beroznikmal on August 09, 2006, 09:40:41 PM
Melf,
I got the math... basically its the
Point where the stock breaks the wedge -
(highest point before the stock fails the wedge - the lowest point of the wedge)

thanx

beroz,

right.  now, if we break the 36.26 neckline, what downside target would be IN PLAY?  you can't look at joe's paper for the answer.  no cheating.

:D  >:D

Hi Melf,

Sorry to hear about your carpal tunnel, hope it gets better soon.  Have you tried using voice recognition software?  I used to use it on my old computer, worked pretty well once I trained it, though not enough I felt like sticking with it.  But in a case like yours, it might make the difference while you are healing.

Was just wondering in general how you are investing while things look bearish still?  I did see you played BCON quite nicely the other day  ;)

I am only about 10% invested max myself at any given time these days...

Quote from: tokyopua on August 15, 2006, 07:26:43 AM
Hi Melf,

Sorry to hear about your carpal tunnel, hope it gets better soon.  Have you tried using voice recognition software? 

Hi, tokyopua,

thx for the suggestion.

Quote
Was just wondering in general how you are investing while things look bearish still?  I did see you played BCON quite nicely the other day  ;)

thx.  i've been taking stabs on both sides, like playing bcon long.  haven't played much lately.  difficult to think clearly with my eyeballs rolling around in my head from my hand hurting.  like this...

::)  ::)  ::)

:D

it's feeling a bit better since i've been resting it.  thx.

your sva validated support yesterday at 2.06, the bottom of the bear flag.  hope it rallies for you from here.  i'll post you a chart in 3sof folder.  good luck.

Bull made a major move today above the ~37.21 and now is in the wedge...
The volume was also heavy...
It is very difficult to figure out where we go from here....
I think we are still in a bearish market .. looking for confirmation these coming days...

B...
p.s.
Melf you should trya word recognition program if it urts to type...
Get well soon...

Quote from: beroznikmal on August 15, 2006, 10:34:56 PM
Bull made a major move today above the ~37.21 and now is in the wedge...
The volume was also heavy...

beroz,

they sure did.  the bulls opened it back inside the wedge, closed it above the 50 dma for the first time since may 10, when the market cracked, and also took out the 37.63 August 4 high on a closing basis, which was the head of a possible h&s top morph. nice day for the bulls. downside targets are ON HOLD.

Quote
It is very difficult to figure out where we go from here....
I think we are still in a bearish market .. looking for confirmation these coming days...

bulls have some more head room here.  the bottom of the last flag and the top of the current wedge are at about 38.07 and 38.21.  didn't calculate it exactly.

yesterday also was the first close above the NDX 1515-1511 neckline that we've discussed so often, so that squeezed some bears out of their shorts and could produce more rally on additional short covering and new buying.   in addition to the extremely high bearish sentiment that we've had for several weeks, mutual fund cash levels are very high, so that also could help to fuel a rally.

Quote
Melf you should trya word recognition program if it urts to type...
Get well soon...

thx, beroz.  i'm taking it easy.  ;)

Good move for the bull. gapped up 2 days in a row.

hi,
which way now for the qqqq's .
i see a cup and handle formed but we are below both 200ema and 200ma.
so consieveably i see a rally to the 200ema at 3908 which will give us the second shoulder, and then a series of lower tops lower bottoms with support at around 3790.
macd rolling over, rsi still has legs but may double top at 70.
which is stronger cup and handle,double top, or head and shoulders?
so looks like a battle between the old combatants the bulls and bears.
i am playing for the bears being always a little skeptical, lol
maxi

hi,
which way now for the qqqq's .
i see a cup and handle formed but we are below both 200ema and 200ma.
so concieveably i see a rally to the 200ema at 3908 which will give us the second shoulder, and then a series of lower tops lower bottoms with support at around 3790.
macd rolling over, rsi still has legs but may double top at 70.
which is stronger cup and handle,double top, or head and shoulders?
so looks like a battle between the old combatants the bulls and bears.
i am playing for the bears being always a little skeptical, lol
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on September 09, 2006, 12:53:44 PM
i am playing for the bears being always a little skeptical, lol
maxi

maxi,

I'm still uncommitted.  Neither team has made me a good offer.  :D  ;D

After the early August Bearish Rising Wedge/Bear Flag/Mini H&S Top issue resolved when we broke above 37.63 with the August 15 close of 37.70, that put 39.00 IN PLAY.  Instead of subtracting from 36.26, we ADD to the upside breakout.

Math:

37.63 - August 4 high

36.26 - Neckline

37.63 - 36.26 = 1.37 points

37.63 + 1.37 points = Target: 39.00 IN PLAY

We got to within two cents of the target, to 38.98 (red #1), in just two days.  Since then, it looks like a Bear Flag.

Whether we rally back toward the top of this Bear Flag and the 200DMA and broken May support just above 40.00, or whether we break the Bear Flag this week to the downside, and test the 50DMA, the QQQQ is buliding a nice base here under 40.00 for a year-end rally, or rally in early 2007.

Personally, I'd like a rally here toward 40.00, then a scary October selloff back to 35.54, for a nice double bottom, then some upward bias into the end of the year, establishing a six-month base, then a breakout above 40.00 on a Santy rally come Christmas, or in January.

"The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

Should we get anything nice like that, maxi, we can use your cup and handle as a receptacle for champagne when we ring in 2007.  :D

nice couple of days for the q's
breakout today on the 5min chart.
next resistance 40
max

here is the daily,
maxi

Today's session was «very bullish» for the Nasdaq-100, apart from the major advance, the index made an important breakout to new short term highs, opening a new technical setup and confirming several bullish ideas.

Breakout of the Descending Resistance:
Today's session was a powerful breakout of this price reference, the index had a bad reaction on this resistance in the beginning of the month, at that time it looked like the end of the line, but now we know it wasn't...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/stockcharts/NDX.gif)

Inverted Head and Shoulders already triggered and «In play»:
Perhaps it's not much easy to spot, but there's already an Inverted H&S formation in play, First shoulder was the late June's Sell off; Second Shoulder the end of August's sell off, the Head is located on July's lows; the potential target could be set above 1700 pts. This pattern is not perfect, there were a lot of price reactions after the neckline's breakout, but when inverting the Chart scale it's a bit easier to follow:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/stockcharts/NDX_invert.gif)

I would say that a consolidation may occur, but the main pattern has changed a lot (for better), even when looking to the long term chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/stockcharts/NDX_lt.gif)

regards,

Quote from: rickjust on September 12, 2006, 03:07:20 PM
next resistance 40

maxi,

That's what it looks like.  The QQQQ penetrated the top of the Bear Flag intraday, but closed smack on it, within one penny.  If it can take that out, 40 looks to be next resistance:

1. 40.00 was the Bear Flag high, on June 2, after the break of 40.16 - 40.19 support.

2. 40.10 was the declining 200 DMA yesterday.

3. 40.16 - 40.19 was key support that broke in May (thick red line)

4. 40.27 - that's about where the 40.16 - 40.19 trendline comes in now.

I still prefer an autumn selloff to even the playing field, but I might not get it.  :D

While this chart certainly looks constructively bullish, this base is only two-thirds as large as the top that broke in May.  I'll show you what I mean in the next post.

KOMG attempted the same thing in late June, and failed.  I'll show you that, too.

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 13, 2006, 02:17:31 AM
While this chart certainly looks constructively bullish, this base is only two-thirds as large as the top that broke in May.  I'll show you what I mean in the next post.

All trading from about November 10, 2005 to May 15, 2006 occurred above 40.00, roughly, (that's the blue line), so we've got a six-month top with which to contend.  Those candles are playing for the Bears, so to speak.

Everything below the blue line is the four-month base that we've been building since the breakdown.  Those candles are playing for the Bulls, so to speak.

Bulls are outnumbered here.  Not badly, but still outnumbered.  If we continue to base for another two months, that would "level the playing field."  We would have a six-month base going up against a six-month top.

"The bigger the base, the better the breakout," and I would say especially with six-months worth of resistance immediately overhead.

Can we rally directly from here with only a four-month base, back to the January high? 

Certainly.  But, it can be more difficult when the base isn't strong.  We'll look at that next in the KOMG chart.

 

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 13, 2006, 02:32:04 AM
Certainly.  But, it can be more difficult when the base isn't strong.  We'll look at that next in the KOMG chart.

KOMG completed a three-month H&S Top in late April.  In late June, it attermpted take a two-month base, and rally against the stronger top.

Was it possible for KOMG to succeed?  Certainly.  In fact, I played it long with a stop in the low 41s. Our buddy, Joet, asked me about why I played, with resistance right overhead.  Very astute question. 

Bases don't always have to be the same size as a top, in order to succeed.  But, "the force isn't with you," if the base is smaller.  I thought KOMG had a chance, but I used a tight stop, and got stopped out.

KOMG failed at the top of a Bear Flag, within six cents of the April Right Shoulder.  Confirmation of the failure was the break of the Bear Flag, the re-test of the neckline right before earnings, then the killer gap down to 42.50 on earnings.

So, looking at KOMG as an example, if the QQQQ breaks out above the low 40s in this time-frame, we aren't necessarily out of the woods, if you see what I mean. 

Curious spike yesterday, to 40.22.   ???  ::)

The QQQQ, otherwise, didn't trade anywhere near there, but they're letting it stand.  That's pretty close to the 40.16 - 40.19 trendline from broken support last spring.  (Next chart).

The QQQQ got to within about five cents of November, 2005 - May, 2006 resistance yesterday (solid red line).  The 50 and 200DMAs are badly inverted.  That doesn't mean that we can't go higher. 

It only means that the QQQQ isn't "in gear," and that it might be a little more difficult to rally from here, with this four-month base going up against that six-month "overhang" of resistance.

Fantastic analysis, my brain is swimming.  Applaud
Lets see where the Nasdaq goes  I am hping that AKAM bring it down a little in the near future
cheers Joe

hi,
look at the chart for the q's. last three candles are bearish. slow stoch and the rsi with a quadruple top, macd on a down trend. 50ma needs to come in line with the 200 day so i think some retracement is on the way this week. let's see.
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on October 01, 2006, 11:04:38 PM
hi,
look at the chart for the q's. last three candles are bearish. slow stoch and the rsi with a quadruple top, macd on a down trend. 50ma needs to come in line with the 200 day so i think some retracement is on the way this week. let's see.
maxi

The «exotic» setup is still working so far. The target for the Inverted H&S is set @ 1710 pts.

Here's an updated chart:

regards,

the 20 EMA heald nicely and now 8 green sessions since the slight pullback... HMM when to correct again
Cheers Joe

The Case of the Bull....... :D
QQQQ, weekly chart has the potential to produce an
Inverted Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal) Pattern

could this be also a double top of the Nasdaq  ???
MACD is also negative

Quote from: la-onda on November 05, 2006, 03:28:31 PM
could this be also a double top of the Nasdaq  ???
MACD is also negative

Nasdaq, QQQQ, NDX are all in the same trend... so if one of them will pullback the other 2 will do the same thing.... Am I right?

Any chance we can get all the QQQQ threads merged? I'm pondering an options thread on the same topic ... and it would be cool to have only one for reference. hehehehe

OH ... and one other thought. Instead of a "dated posted date" stamp ... maybe a "last updated date" stamp would help us figure out which thread to post to. Since we're shooting for 1 thread by stock, the posted date should become irrelevant.... eventually. AND ... maybe more bland topics that don't specify an action or direction.

Just a thought :)
-Samantha

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on November 26, 2006, 07:15:34 PM
Any chance we can get all the QQQQ threads merged? I'm pondering an options thread on the same topic ... and it would be cool to have only one for reference. hehehehe

You were right Samantha, we should combine not just the QQQQ Threads....

We should merged QQQQ, Nasdaq, & NDX threads because  all these 3 are all in the same trend, the only differences are the prices. ;)

Maybe a little help from Setravis will do that ;D

Sorry wrong guy??? I still think you're a peach!  :-*
Hey - I've been trying to piece together all of your fabu insight on the 3 magic lines concept. Is there a dedicated thread for that? http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7259.0 is the best I can come up with. :)
-Samantha

Don't worry I'll make one for you ;) :D

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on November 26, 2006, 10:15:37 PM
Sorry wrong guy??? I still think you're a peach!  :-*
Hey - I've been trying to piece together all of your fabu insight on the 3 magic lines concept. Is there a dedicated thread for that? http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7259.0 is the best I can come up with. :)
-Samantha

There you go Samantha, I made your thread... ;)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7602.0

This was an ugly day in the markets. I'm showing long term upward trendline on the Qs around $43.31 ish... or maybe the option strike at $43. All of my sensabilities say we should be going higher if the Santa rally shows up ... you know everyone wants some techy gadget for Christmas ... well except for me ... I want a weed whacker with attachments. :)

And one day does not a trend make ... but I'm keeping $43 in mind with a confirmation from the Dow ... since they tend to be buddies.
-Samantha

QQQQ chart doesnt look pretty, broke 50dma today on high volume. Also a bearish cross on the MACD. However support at 43.50 held up today with a bounce. Lets see how long the QQQQ can hold up with the negativity on tech as of late. QID is looking like a good play for a declining nasdaq.

The most difficult thing for me at the July 18, 2006 low was the fact that getting there was so ridiculously easy, it seemed like a no brainer.

Back on Page 1 in this folder, about 8 posts down, at the weekend of May 12, 2006, I posted at least 10 reasons why I thought that the QQQQs were in trouble.

In subsequent posts, several of us discussed the various bearish patterns, and the bearish targets IN PLAY as each pattern emerged.  At the July 18, 2006 low, the last of our pattern targets, 35.56, had MADE within two cents: the final low was 35.54.

That was it?

Yep.

That was the final low of what I thought would be a 4-year cycle low into October, 2006?

Yep.

You're joking.   ???  ::)

Nope.   :D  >:D

Next post: How a "no brainer" can be so difficult!

Although the last of our targets in the daily chart had MADE at the July 18 35.54 low, the BIG difficulty that I had was that, in the weekly chart, we had broken a year-long H&S Top, in order for the 35.54 to get MADE.

Somewhere in this thread, I posted a "possible" Bearish Wolfe that lead to much lower prices into the Autumn, 2006 4-year cycle low, and with this H&S Top completed, I saw almost no chance of the July 18 low being THE low for 2006.

As I've said many times, this is another great example of why I never try to predict anything, but rather, try to follow the market, as best I can!

:D

I also try to learn from my mistakes, so that I don't repeat them.

At the July 18 low, it was very difficult, if not impossible, for me to view this chart as bearish, which in retrospect, was fine.  It was bearish.

The important thing was that I "got with the program" as we moved along though the autumn, and played charts that were bullish, but I still had a difficult time being as bullish as I should have been.

We look at that time-frame next.

Where I began to "get with the program," was when we got back above the neckline of the 1-Year H&S Top, and took out the high of the first Bear Flag/Rising Channel (in green).

I had mentioned that there was record short interest last summer, and the chart now was beginning to smack of a HUGE Bear Trap fakeout at that July 18 low.

As we now know, it was.

The next two patterns (in blue, and in red) also were Bear Flag/Rising Channel patterns, and when you're expecting an Autumn 4-Year Cycle low, I found it very, very difficult to view those upside breakouts as bullish, but I also avoided get stuck in a bearish mindset.

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 11, 2006, 05:07:12 AM
maxi,

I'm still uncommitted.   Neither team has made me a good offer.  :D  ;D

Whether we rally back toward the top of this Bear Flag and the 200DMA and broken May support just above 40.00, or whether we break the Bear Flag this week to the downside, and test the 50DMA, the QQQQ is buliding a nice base here under 40.00 for a year-end rally, or rally in early 2007.

Even though I was trying to remain open-minded about rallying to a new high at the end of the year, look at the 3 patterns that I've drawn in this chart, coming off the July, 2006 low.

In the next post, I'll show you an entirely different way of looking at those patterns.

Part of technical analysis is "the art of interpretation."  Back in September, I wasn't the least bit artful, but Maxi (rickjust) sure was!  Applause. 

Back on the last page on September 12, he came so, so close to finding this Bullish Inverse H&S pattern (that I didn't find, either), but Maxi thought that the pattern was blown! 

It wasn't.  It broke out September 12, and I'm still wondering how I missed it.  Hindsight is 20/20, isn't it?

I certainly missed it, at least in part, because I was expecting a 4-Year Cycle low to come in, and thinking that we'd get some sort of re-test of the July 18 low.

"Don't think, Melf, look at the chart!"  :o

Summary:

My main point in this review, is how important it is to try to remain objective, and not be overly influenced by our own opinion, or by what we're hearing in the news at any particular point in time.

As objective as I was trying to be last summer and autumn, I clearly can see that I was strongly influenced by my expectation of a 4-year cycle low, and I think that clouded my vision so that I didn't find this Bullish DOUBLE Inverse H&S Breakout.

Those can be very powerful, as some of you will remember in my recent trade in VPHM.  That DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S breakout was very powerful, and this one in the QQQQ was also.

Looking at this chart from that vantage point, we can see how the QQQQ had such a strong year-end rally, and rally into 2007.

Next, we'll look at the current time-frame in the QQQQ.

EDIT: I'm starting to fall asleep at the wheel, so I'm going to take a break, but I'll finish by this afternoon.  We need a Snore Face on the toolbar.

"If past is prologue..."

Just as the six downside pattern targets that we had IN PLAY after the mid-May, 2006 breakdown MADE with no problem, all of the upside pattern targets off the July 18 low MADE with no problem, as well.

The last of the bullish targets, 44.23, MADE the day before the November high of 44.86.

Next, we'll look at November, 2006 to the present.

After all the upside targets MADE, we got a Double Top, or "M" Top at 44.86 and 44.76, in November and December, 2006 that put a target of 41.76 IN PLAY.

"Targets against the dominant trend are less like to get MADE."  The trend was bullish, and the target didn't get MADE.

Instead, the QQQQ took out 44.86 and 44.76 highs to the upside, so now we have to add the height of the pattern to the upside breakout, and that put a target of 46.26 IN PLAY.

Notice that the pivot of the first "M" Top was 43.26, on December 1.

After the January 16 high of 45.40, where did the first selloff end?

43.29.

What does that tell us?

43.26 wasn't support we broke the first Double Top, but that Double Top got reversed to the upside, and now 43.26 has been re-established as support, which it "should have been" back in December.

That's at least suggesting that we don't want to get too bearish at that 43.29 low, on January 26.

Off that low, we went up and put in another Double Top, or "M" Top, and on the bad news out of China, we broke short-term key support: 43.26 - 43.29.

Now, that isn't support again!

Do we see any "character change" in the market, given that type of action?

Most definitely.

Coming of the July, 2006, there was no nonsense of that sort, at all.  Patterns formed, broke out to the upside, and the targets got MADE with no problem.

We've got a problem here:

1. 43.26 - 43.29 isn't support here.  On Wednesday and Thursday, we made intraday forays above it, but couldn't close it out above it.  Friday, we didn't get near it at all.

We still "could," but in the interim, we've got...

2. The "lost target" of 41.76 back IN PLAY, from the December 22 breakdown.

3. 41.18 IN PLAY for the second Double Top breakdown, below the 43.29 pivot between the 45.40 - 45.55 highs.

4. EDIT: The bullish target of 46.26 didn't get MADE, and is CANCELLED on the break of 43.26 - 43.29.

That's another bit of evidence of a "sea change" in the character of the market.

So, 43.26 - 43.29 certainly look "pivotal" both figuratively and literally.

If we CLOSE above that level, I would rate the short-term picture as neutral.

Below it, as we are at Friday's close, the short-term picture is bearish, with the two downside targets of 41.76 and 41.18 IN PLAY.

The 200DMA is 40.9948 at Friday's close, just below the 41.18 IN PLAY.

Oh Melf how we miss you, and how tickled you would be (and I'm sure you are) by the QQQQs toying with us. 

On Thursday we had a day of indecision as the market started to show signs of toppiness off of this rally, and the high that day was where?  You guessed it, at 43.24, 2 cents below Melf's 43.26 resistance, and it hit this level 3 times during the day while forming a small ascending triangle that it eventually broke down from. 

Then Friday, with the Jobs report coming in and all, the QQQQ''s gapped above this resistance, drawing all those early morning bulls in in the pre-market, but boy did it charge them for their over-exuberance!  The QQQQs headed lower, eventually bouncing off Wednesday's triple low of 42.65-66, before rallying up to $43 to close the day.  This breakdown also broke out of a rising wedge (to the downside) that had been forming all week.  This rising wedge breakdown puts a target of 41.72 IN PLAY, which coincides quite nicely with Melf's M top target:

Math - pattern high: 43.34 - pattern low: 42.06 = 1.28
Break of pattern at 43 - pattern range of 1.28 => downside target of 41.72.

For the moment, it looks like 42.65 is key short term support, so once again the chains are set.  rally above 43.29 (well 43.34 to take out Friday's high) or break below short term support at 42.65, which would suggest we may see a move into the 41.70 range.  Go on QQQQ, test us!!

Nice weekly chart. SHORT.
http://bestchartsonline.com/

Semiconductors.......
There has been a HUGE divergence between the QQQQ's and the SMH.. The biggest I've ever seen !
These two sectors always move in tandem, over time.

QQQQ to Nasdaq Composite: See Ya
EVERYONE KNOWS IT'S A MARKET of stocks, not a stock market.

But that old saw even holds for traders of index funds, notably those based on the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq-100.

So far in 2007, the Nasdaq Composite's total return is up 19.09%, while the Nasdaq-100 -- the basis for the popular QQQQ exchange-traded fund, is up 27.74%.

The outperformance of the QQQQ is so significant that it has persuaded most options traders and investors to consider less-diversified investment strategies, Credit Suisse derivatives strategists Ed Tom and Glenn DeSouza said in a recent trading advisory.

The ETF (now officially called PowerShares QQQ Trust due to a licensing marketing agreement) consists of only the top 100 Nasdaq nonfinancial stocks. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) consists of all the listed Nasdaq stocks, which now totals about 3,000 companies.

These distinctions are probably little surprise to most options traders, who tend to trade the Nasdaq-100 more than almost anything else. But the performance divergence merits a closer look because most investors view the QQQQ as a proxy for the entire Nasdaq. In fact, there are important differences between the Nasdaq-100 and the Nasdaq Composite.

"The majority of the nearly 900 basis points [nine percentage points] of outperformance is mostly attributable to significant returns in only a handful of technology names including Google, Apple, Research in Motion and Microsoft," according to a recent trading advisory from Credit Suisse's derivatives strategists.

Almost as important as what's in the QQQQ is what's left out. With 65% in tech stocks, which have been among this year's leaders, the QQQQ also has no financial stocks, which have been devastated by the subprime collapse and its attendant effects. Financials have a heavy weighting in the Nasdaq Composite as well as the Standard & Poor's 500, and indeed have weighed down their performances.

To look even closer, the most influential stocks in QQQQ are: Apple, which comprises 12.27% and is up 120% year-to-date; Microsoft, which makes up 6.44% and is up 23% year-to-date; and Google which makes of 5.6%, and is up 58% so far this year.

In the Nasdaq Composite, Apple only makes up about 3.91%; Microsoft, 8.31%; and Google, 4.08%. What explains the difference? The answer is technical, and has to do with how the index and ETF are calculated, which changes the percentage weightings of the components.

"The divergence in performance between the Nasdaq-100 and the broader Nasdaq this year is particularly significant," according to Tom and DeSouza. "The fact that they have larger relative weights in the smaller subset benchmark have made owning the more highly concentrated Q's worth being less diversified so far this year."

Sometimes diversification isn't a hedge against stupidity, as investor Warren Buffett once wryly observed, but an impediment to performance. As many options traders like to say, some of the world's richest people are those with the most highly concentrated stock positions, such as Buffett and Microsoft's Bill Gates.

QID... >:D

Technology...

The Nasdaq 100 wide double bottom reversal offers a target of 1550, calculated as
1300 + [ 1300 - 1050]. Retracement respected the new support level at 1300, and Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) broke above 0.1, both indicating a strong up-trend. The primary trend may be up, but downside risk remains elevated until there is confirmation from the broader market (the Dow or S&P 500) — or stronger earnings from index leaders like Microsoft.

Nasdaq 100: Primary Up-Trend

Testing resistance...

Technology

The Nasdaq 100 is retracing to test the new support level at 1300, after completing a wide double bottom reversal to a primary up-trend. Respect of support is likely to confirm the up-trend, offering a target of 1550, calculated as 1300 + [ 1300 - 1050]. Failure of the new support level, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 1050.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=48302)

Technology
The Nasdaq 100 is stronger than the Dow and S&P 500 — though it does show a weak bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (13-Week). Reversal of the indicator below zero (or the index below 1340) would warn of a secondary correction.

Technology
The Nasdaq 100 encountered resistance at 1500, but remains stronger than the Dow and S&P 500. Breakout above 1500 would signal another primary advance with a target of 1600 — calculated as 1300 + ( 1300 - 1000 ). Reversal below 1340 is unlikely, but would warn of a secondary correction. Twiggs Money Flow (13-Week) rising above 0.25 would confirm a primary advance.

Technology
The Nasdaq 100 broke through resistance at 1500 to signal a primary advance to 1600. A Twiggs Money Flow (13-Week) rise above 0.25 would confirm.

Technology...
The Nasdaq 100 broke short-term support at 1800, indicating another test of support at 1725. Failure would confirm the primary downtrend. 63-day Momentum Oscillator declining below zero strengthens the bear signal.

Technology...

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for a test of 1920; breakout would signal an advance to 2050*. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) respect of the zero line indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 1770 is now unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

Target calculation: 1920 + ( 1920 - 1770 ) = 2070

Technology...

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for a test of 1920. Breakout would signal an advance to 2050. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) respect of the zero line indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 1770 is now unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

Target calculation: 1920 + ( 1920 - 1770 ) = 2070

Technology...

The Nasdaq 100 broke resistance at 1920 and is advancing to 2060*. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) respect of the zero line indicates buying pressure. Expect retracement, however, to test the new support level in October.

Target calculation: 1920 + ( 1920 - 1770 ) = 2070

Technology...
The Nasdaq 100 is headed for a test of resistance at 2060. A strong rise on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 2060 in October would test the 2007 high of 2250*.

Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Technology...

The Nasdaq 100 respected support at 2060, signaling an advance to the 2007 high of 2250*. The sharp rise on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) indicates strong buying pressure.


* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Technology...
The Nasdaq 100 is headed for a test of its 2007 high of 2250. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) in an up-trend above the zero line indicates strong buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Nasdaq 100

Technology...
The Nasdaq 100 broke through its 2007 high at 2250, signaling a fresh advance. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) troughs high above zero indicate strong buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Nasdaq 100...

Technology
The Nasdaq 100 is holding above its new support level at 2250; a positive sign. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) indicates buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Nasdaq 100...

Technology
The Nasdaq 100 respected its new support level at 2250; a positive sign. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) indicates strong buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Nasdaq 100...
Technology
The Nasdaq 100 is also advancing but there is a bearish divergence on Twiggs Momentum. Penetration of the rising olive trendline would confirm that momentum is slowing and warn of a correction. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (21-day), however, continues to indicate buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Nasdaq 100...

This stock market index contains 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The NASDAQ 100 is a modified version of a market value-weighted index, where each company's weight is based on their market capitalization with certain restrictions applied in capping the influence of the largest companies. There are no financial companies in the NASDAQ 100, but it does include companies in Canada, Israel, India, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ireland.

There are a number of standards a company must reach in order to be listed in this index including: being listed only on the NASDAQ (either the Global Select or Global Market tiers), must be listed for 2 years (or must meet market capitalization standards), have an average daily volume of 200,000 shares, be current in its reports and not be in bankruptcy proceedings. While there may be changes in the components in the case of delisting, the NASDAQ 100 is rebalanced once a year when its companies are reviewed then publicly announced.

Nasdaq 100...
Technology
The Nasdaq 100 also displays bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below the 2007 high at 2250 would warn of a correction to the long-term trendline.


* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Nasdaq 100...
Technology
The Nasdaq 100 also displays bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below the 2007 high at 2250 would warn of a strong correction, possibly to the long-term trendline.

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 - 1750 ) = 2350

Technology...
The Nasdaq 100 also rallied, but a stronger decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests another test of support at 2200.

The Nasdaq 100...

Technology
The Nasdaq 100 is headed for a test of primary support at 2200. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of strong selling pressure.

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 - 2200 ) = 2600