Nasdaq 100

[Melf Elf]

The QQQQ is trading at 37.30 in pre-market trading.  If that holds up, the Double Top target of 37.33 will get MADE at the open.

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still will be IN PLAY.

[alien41]

Melf Elf those Bears just can't be beat.    Whats a bull to do?  It's gonna be a long hot summer the way things are going.

Alien

[Melf Elf]

Melf Elf those Bears just can't be beat.    Whats a bull to do?  It's gonna be a long hot summer the way things are going.

Alien,

Yeah, those Bears have been mean...mean...mean.     

The QQQQ is trading at 37.30 in pre-market trading. If that holds up, the Double Top target of 37.33 will get MADE at the open.

The 37.33 Double Top target MADE right after the open.

[Melf Elf]

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still will be IN PLAY.

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still is IN PLAY.  In addition, the QQQQ broke below the neckline of a H&S Top on Tuesday, putting a target of 36.86 IN PLAY.

The neckline for today, June 29, comes in at 37.95.  The gap up open in the QQQQ this morning was 37.96, and the low so far today is exactly 37.95., smack on the neckline.

So, ahead of the Fed news, in a market that is in a downtrend, with two downside targets IN PLAY, we've gapped higher above the neckline this morning, and are rallying hard.

It has me scratching my head a bit, that in this technical circumstance, players are being so brave, stepping in ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon.

 
It would seem to make more sense if we were down 100-200 points this morning, if fear and trembling about the Fed news, then have a nice upside reversal.

The market doesn't always make sense, though.   

[Melf Elf]

Here's the hourly chart, with the H&S Top, and this morning's gap up opening above the neckline.

[nullzero]

The GDP news just gave the FED the go ahead to come down hard on intrest rates.... great 

[tokyopua]

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still will be IN PLAY.

The Bear Flag Target of 37.02 still is IN PLAY.  In addition, the QQQQ broke below the neckline of a H&S Top on Tuesday, putting a target of 36.86 IN PLAY.

The neckline for today, June 29, comes in at 37.95.  The gap up open in the QQQQ this morning was 37.96, and the low so far today is exactly 37.95., smack on the neckline.

So, ahead of the Fed news, in a market that is in a downtrend, with two downside targets IN PLAY, we've gapped higher above the neckline this morning, and are rallying hard.

It has me scratching my head a bit, that in this technical circumstance, players are being so brave, stepping in ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon.

 
It would seem to make more sense if we were down 100-200 points this morning, if fear and trembling about the Fed news, then have a nice upside reversal.

The market doesn't always make sense, though.   

CNBC keeps reporting that the reason for the rally is that many hedge funds are dying for a few extra percentage points on their end of quarter results, so are willing to gamble on the slight rally that is going on.  They say that end of quarter and Fed policy statements seldom ever happen at the same time, so that is what is going on supposedly.

[beroznikmal]

Fed news out.. raise interest rate by 0.25% as expected.. qqqq seems to be rallying..
cheers...
B

[Melf Elf]

CNBC keeps reporting that the reason for the rally is that many hedge funds are dying for a few extra percentage points on their end of quarter results, so are willing to gamble on the slight rally that is going on.  They say that end of quarter and Fed policy statements seldom ever happen at the same time, so that is what is going on supposedly.

tokyopua,

I've been hearing that all day, too.  It surprises me that the market is being this accommodating, to allow those guys to have their expected end of quarter rally.

   

[Melf Elf]

By the way, it looks like fous' Hound of the Baskervilles signal was good for a 50 pts. rally in the NASDAQ, so far. The buy signal was June 19 when the MACD histogram crossed above the zero line.

Unfortunately, I didn't get long.  The bearish chart patterns kept me out. 

[rickjust]

hi melf,
correction on the hound of the baskerville signal . repost from my post on xing board.
thanks maxi

hi,
it is one of the strongest signals but it is not called "hound of the baskervilles."
the hound has the opposite effect.
from "come into my trading room"
" when a super strong signal doesn't pan out it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market.................................but the failure of a divergance of macd hist. is an exception."
" i call this the hound of the baskervilles signal, after a story by sir arthur conan doyle. sherlock holmes was called to investigate a murder on a country estate. his clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being commited. that indicated the dog knew the criminal, and the murder was an inside job. sherlock holmes recieved his signal not from the action but from the lack of expected action. when a divergance of macd hist. fails to produce a reversal, it gives a hound of the baskervilles signal."

maxi

[Melf Elf]

hi melf,
correction on the hound of the baskerville signal . repost from my post on xing board.

maxi,

Wow, that was interesting! Thanks, and Applause.

" when a super strong signal doesn't pan out it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market.................................but the failure of a divergance of macd hist. is an exception."

Okay, this particular signal hasn't failed, since we've had a nice rally, so it's not a "Hound of the Baskervilles" signal, as you say.

his clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being commited. that indicated the dog knew the criminal, and the murder was an inside job.

I am crazy for murder mysteries, and I would have sworn that it was Agatha Chrisite, with the dog that didn't bark, indicating that the dog knew the murderer, and that it was an inside job.

Shows you how wrong you can be!, And, it shows you that I need to re-read my Arthur Conan Doyle, and my Agatha Christie (two of my all-time favorites).

Maybe we should call this "The Mouse Trap" signal, since it sure looks like a Bear Trap.  I'm pretty sure that's Agatha Christie, but it's been many years since I've read those books.

Have you ever been to a "Murder Mystery" dinner, or weekend?

I highly recommend it.  Way-y too much fun...you must try it.

 

Clues in Potted Palms.  Or, a clue under an unpretentious fern, out in the garden.

At dinner, I was in conversation with a delightful woman across from me, who suddenly dropped dead, right into her Tomato Aspic.  People can be so rude, nowadays.  It isn't at all like it used to be, when people would be polite, and wait until after dessert and coffee, to be murdered.

 

[Melf Elf]

Welcome to MORPHOLOGY 101. 

Sometimes, patterns "morph," or change into other patterns, which makes it difficult figuring them out.

Off the June 13 low, we had a Bearish Rising Wedge, then TWO pattern morphs:

Patten #1: The Bearish Rising Wedge, in AQUA.  Those often "morph" into H&S Tops, like this one did.

Pattern #2: The H&S Top, in RED.  That broke to the downside, then we got the gap up yesterday, smack on the neckline, which put the downside target ON HOLD.

When the Head of a H&S Top is taken out to the upside, the pattern measurement is added to the Head to derive the upsde target.

But, wait a minute...

The slope of the recent lows is 0.02 per day.  If we create a parallel line with the same slope off the recent high of 38.99, that trendlline comes in today, June 30, at 39.13.

This morning's open was 39.12.  The high, so far, was 39.14, made in the first minute of trading.

Pattern #3: A Bear Flag, in BLUE.

All 3 patterns are bearish, consistent with the overall trend since the mid-May breakdown.

An upside takeout of this morning's high of 39.14, which also would be a takeout of the top of the Bear Flag, in BLUE, would favor the bulls, especially if it's on a closing basis.

[nullzero]

market getting wacked today

[Melf Elf]

Welcome to MORPHOLOGY 101. 

The slope of the recent lows is 0.02 per day.  If we create a parallel line with the same slope off the recent high of 38.99, that trendlline comes in today, June 30, at 39.13.

This morning's open was 39.12.  The high, so far, was 39.14, made in the first minute of trading.

The 39.14 high at the top of the Bear Flag remains the high off the June 13 low. 

All 3 patterns are bearish, consistent with the overall trend since the mid-May breakdown.

The downside action since June 30 has borne that out. 

market getting wacked today

nullzero,

Whacked all the way back to the bottom of the Bear Flag. 

We're within a hair of breaking it to the downside.   That isn't looking very friendly at the moment.

"Honor Thy Stops."