Today I'm looking for some rebound candidates. LVLT had a powerful 17% rise, breaking a short term pennant and crossing on the upside its descending trend line.
I had no ambitious perspectives, but I look to the $2.50 level has a short term possible target.
Hi J
Today LVLT post a 1.06% drop
What do u think for the next two days movement?
Symbol Rem Last Chg BVol (K) Buy Sell SVol (K) Vol (K) Open High Low Time
LVLT NM 1.860 -0.020 19.6 1.850 1.870 2 7161.615 1.920 1.970 1.850 25/05
Thks
On 5/20/05 the chairman Walter Scott completed an open market purchase of 200k shares (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?sid=102815&symb=lvlt&siteid=mktw)
On 5/26/05 the stock was listed among barchart.com's volume leaders. This pattern reminds me of FC a few weeks back when it [FC] was trading in the mid $3's only to break $7.
Is LVLT a good stock to jump into?
I like this pick. It may pullback a bit from today. Volume and the Chaikin money flow is increasing. All good signals.
Before you jump into this stock read this article I came across today. LVLT is the most shorted stock on the Nasdq.
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_2763019
Quote from: saffeysite1 on May 27, 2005, 06:22:05 PM
Before you jump into this stock read this article I came across today. LVLT is the most shorted stock on the Nasdq.
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_2763019
and thats just nice ;)
... I think this is a good buy point of LVLT.
Good luck !
I took your advice and got in at 2.27. LVLT closed 6/14/05 with a nice volume push in the closing minutes. Looking at the charts, is LVLT a keeper?
Hey ssubirias3,
Looked at the chart and it still looks ok on the short term. I say let the market take you out on this one. Use your stops! I would place it following the 20ema, 9ema or low of previous day on LVLT. LVLT is going through some resistance zones and stocks usually start consolidating to build momentum to go through. It will need a lot of volume to get through. Yesterdays candle was very bullish, just wish it had more volume.
Hope that helps.
updated chart picture
LVLT looks like heading north and close that little gap there... ;)
I am with you on that. Nice chart work. Applause.
Just dropping the chart.. ;) happy trading
:)
Now it is really flying...
Level 3 to Acquire WilTel in $680M Deal
Monday October 31, 5:15 pm ET
Level 3 to Buy WilTel From Leucadia National for About $680 Million in Cash and Stock
BROOMFIELD, Colo. (AP) -- Level 3 Communications Inc. said Monday it agreed to acquire Internet access and services company WilTel Communications Group LLC from Leucadia National Corp. for about $680 million.
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Level 3, which operates IP-based fiber-optic networks said it will pay $370 million in cash and issue 115 million shares in the deal. Based on Friday's closing price of $2.70 for Level 3 shares, the stock portion of the agreement is valued at $310.5 million. Level 3 has the right to substitute cash in lieu of stock.
The Tulsa, Okla.-based WilTel delivers voice, data, video and IP services over a next-generation fiber-optic network. The acquisition includes all of WilTel's communications business, including a multiyear contract with SBC Communications Inc. and WilTel's Vyvx video transmission business.
Leucadia shares rose $1.37, or 3.3 percent, to close at $42.96 Monday on the New York Stock Exchange. Level 3 shares rose 18 cents to close at $2.88 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
SBC, WilTel's largest customer, is in the process of acquiring AT&T Corp. and plans to migrate the services provided by WilTel to the combined company.
Level 3 will not acquire certain WilTel assets and liabilities, such as WilTel's headquarters or the assumption of any of WilTel's outstanding debt or mortgage obligations, under the terms of the deal.
Integration costs have been pegged at $100 million to $150 million, with the majority of those costs incurred in fiscal 2006, assuming the deal is closed in the first-quarter.
Kevin O'Hara, Level 3's president and chief operating officer, said that the combined Level 3 and WilTel will reach 50 new markets and include 3000 new route miles compared with Level 3's pre-acquisition facilities.
Level 3 estimates WilTel will contribute $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion in revenue in 2006, including the SBC master contract, but that amount is expected to fall to $600 million in 2008 as SBC traffic merges with AT&T. WilTel is expected to contribute between $50 million to $90 million in cash flow for 2006 and about $125 million to $150 million a year thereafter.
LVLT is looking solid, might break its 52 week high next week ! ;D
LVLT is been a good girl, major resistance coming @ 3.70. protect ur profit ....& happy trading ;)
LVLT ;)
Watch out LVLT, heavy volume (19mil) 4 times the average volume... we might get spike at After Hours ;)
Level 3 Signs Multiyear VoIP Agreement With Patriot Media
Monday November 14, 7:00 am ET
Level 3 to Provide E-911 and Other Network Services to the New Jersey Cable Operator
BROOMFIELD, Colo., Nov. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Level 3 Communications (Nasdaq: LVLT - News) today announced that it is the exclusive underlying network provider for Patriot Media's new digital phone service called "Patriot Digital Phone." Patriot Media, a New Jersey based cable operator serving 115,000 households, launched its digital phone service in October 2005.
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Under the terms of the multiyear agreement, Level 3 is providing Patriot Media with (3)VoIP Enhanced(SM) Local service, which is used by cable operators, as well as carriers, Internet service providers and other companies eager to deploy a quick-to-market, cost-effective, regulatory-compliant IP voice solution. Included in (3)VoIP Enhanced Local service is a fixed-line solution for E-911 that includes network connections to public safety answering points (PSAPs) that serve approximately 68 percent of households across the United States. Level 3 recently enhanced its E-911 solution for IP voice customers, and continues to increase the geographic availability of its E-911 platform. Already operating one of the largest networks in the United States, Level 3 plans to extend its fixed-line E-911 coverage to more than 70 percent of households by the end of 2005.
Still rising.... ;)
Looking good to buy back ;)
After 14 sessions of consolidation, LVLT rebounded from 50% fibonacci retracement & made a breakout today, up 7.02% ;) :D
Wondering if anyone could give me any insight as to when would be a good time to get into LVLT. Seen this run up and wondering if anyone thinks there is more to come. Thanks
Triangle breakout on huge volume. Implied target $4.75.
Looking at a long term chart, today's volume was the highest in the history of the stock. Beyond the implied target, I see resistance between $5 and $7.50. Over $7.50 and it runs to $10 real fast.
Terlisa, you made some nice coin on this last year. You getting back in? I bought today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060328/latu060.html?.v=51
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060328:MTFH78266_2006-03-28_12-20-27_WEN3432&symbol=LVLT.O&rpc=44
Level 3 Expects to Meet or Exceed First Quarter 2006 Projections
Tuesday March 28, 7:00 am ET
Company Increases Estimates for First Quarter and Full Year 2006 Consolidated Adjusted OIBDA
BROOMFIELD, Colo., March 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Level 3 Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: LVLT - News) announced today that it expects to meet and, for certain metrics, exceed its first quarter 2006 projections issued on February 7, 2006. The company increased its first quarter 2006 Consolidated Adjusted OIBDA projection from $105-125 million to $140-150 million. For full year 2006, Level 3 also increased its Consolidated Adjusted OIBDA projection from $550-600 million to $600-650 million and its 2006 Net Cash Interest Expense projection from $505 million to $520 million.
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"The improvements to our OIBDA projections are a result of better than expected performance in our communications business," said Sunit S. Patel, Level 3's chief financial officer. "Our higher margin core communications services results are stronger than anticipated. Additionally, the progress we've made integrating WilTel Communications has also led to our improved forecast."
As previously announced, the company is holding its 2006 Analyst and Investor Day today beginning at 8:30 a.m. EST, at the Grand Hyatt in New York City. A webcast and an archive of the event will be available on Level 3's investor
Wow.....How fast things can change. I was becoming very bullish on this stock and wanted to continue holding it but as you know Cramer was very bullish on the stock, so it decided to go down. Eh......doesn't make any sense huh? Well, that happens sometimes......it's called the "cramer effect".
I unloaded half my shares this morning and the other half shortly after because I was afraid of this thing tanking as fast as its been rising.
Today's candlestick looks very nasty! I'm wondering if it's going to try to fill the gap at 4.50. If it does, I'll be jumping in again ;D Until then, good luck to all you remaining shareholders!! I hope you make out good on this stock. ;)
TODAY'S CANDLESTICK!
BEARISH DARK CLOUD COVER
Type: Reversal
Relevance: Bearish
Prior Trend: Bullish
Reliability: High
Confirmation: Suggested
No. of Sticks: 2
Definition:
Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Pattern is a two-candlestick pattern signaling a top reversal after an uptrend or, at times, at the top of a congestion band. We see a strong white real body in the first day. The second day opens strongly above the previous day high (it is above the top of the upper shadow). However, market closes near the low of the day and well within the prior day's white body at the end of the day.
Level 3 communications (LVLT) stock has been moving in a negatively inclined channel since May as show the chart above. The oscillators are moving to the downside. I believe, will continue to move down to test, in the short term, the $3,75 level exactly the actual value of the EMA200. LVLT hasn't broken the $4 support but it is looking like it will.
(http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2028/1705/1600/LVLT.2.jpg)
Hi,
strong sell signal...Yesterday a High Wave was formed near a great resistance and more 50% retracement. End of pullback ? Probability are in our favour.
close at 4.30
target at 3.36
stop loss at 4.61 (large)
Reward/Risk ratio of 27.9 / 7.2 = 3.875
lvlt get's an upgrade,buy at jeffries
Looking strong, PR on Youtube signed L3...........Bear staearns puts target at $6.75
This one getting alot of attention and volume...............Worth watching for major advancement...........
Bearsterns has 6.75 target...
LVLT has broken out of a Bull Flag pennant setup with huge volume closing at 6.02$ 52 week high, I can say LVLT is on FIRE !!! In the daily chart we can see that Bullish MACD crossover, so keep it on your watchlist. Remenber " the trend is your friend until it ends ".
(http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/10/2154/1600/LVLT.jpg)
Monster volume....
52wk Range: 2.06 - 6.00
Volume: 165,044,613
Avg Vol (3m): 28,611,600
Technicals
Record Price High
Most Actives
Record Price Break Out
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
16.43%above 13-day MA
26.04%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Oct 24
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $6,052.09
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: -0.578571
Next Earnings: 10/19/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
This stock has a thread....here it is !
Why create new ones.....Clutters the boards.
Miguel007, you created a thread on 15 July 2006,and then you create a new one today ???
Use the search to find a thread on a stock pick.
Look go here.....
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=169.msg74327#msg74327
AP
Level 3 to Acquire Broadwing for $1.4B
Tuesday October 17, 5:10 pm ET
By Sandy Shore, AP Business Writer
Network Operator Level 3 to Buy Broadwing in $1.4 Billion Deal
DENVER (AP) -- Network operator Level 3 Communications Inc. took another step in its transformation Tuesday by announcing a $1.4 billion cash-and-stock deal to acquire Broadwing Corp., which sells communications services.
If the acquisition is finalized, Broadwing will become the latest of a string of companies Level 3 has acquired as part of its strategy to offer service from one locale to another without relying on -- or paying -- a third party for part of the transmission.
The acquisition will enable Level 3 to put Broadwing's customers on its network and eliminate duplication, Level 3 President and Chief Operating Officer Kevin O'Hara told The Associated Press.
"We're going start to finish and every incremental dollar of traffic that we can put on network, we get to keep a bigger and bigger piece of it as a result of the financial leverage," he said.
Investors joined analysts in welcoming the decision, driving Level 3's stock to a 52-week high and Broadwing's stock up nearly 20 percent.
"We believe this acquisition further consolidates supply in the long-haul market and will help in further stabilizing industry pricing," JP Morgan analyst Jonathan Chaplin said in a research note.
Janco Partners analyst Donna Jaegers said Level 3 would gain more business customers and a nationwide sales force. "I think it's a good fit," she said, adding that any risk would primarily be in the integration of operations.
Level 3 agreed to pay $744 million in cash and issue 122 million shares, which will translate to $8.18 a share in cash and 1.3411 shares for each share of Broadwing. The offer represented a 15 percent premium over Broadwing's closing price of $13.28 a share on Monday.
The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2007 pending approval by regulators and Broadwing shareholders. O'Hara said no decisions have been made on potential layoffs that may occur as Broadwing is folded into Level 3's operations.
Level 3 expects to spend between $110 million and $130 million to combine the companies and that Broadwing's operations should start contributing to adjusted operating income next year.
Based in the north Denver suburb of Broomfield, Level 3 offers Internet communications services over its 23,000-mile broadband fiber optic network. The industry leaders are such companies as Verizon and SBC while Level 3 fits into a group of smaller competitors such as Qwest Communications International Inc.
"Level 3 starts to look very attractive in that next tier," O'Hara said. "But, to be fair, we're still a small player compared to the behemoths."
As managed modem and DSL businesses waned, Level 3 acquired a handful of companies that have boosted network traffic. Among its customers today are Hershey Foods, Pennsylvania State University and the commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
"Going forward, Level 3 has really changed its stripes," Jaegers said. "Now they're realizing they have to go after more small and mid-sized customers."
Based in Austin, Texas, Broadwing sells data, voice, and media products and services to business and other service providers over a 19,000-mile intercity fiber network.
Level 3's stock closed up 72 cents, or 13.5 percent, to $6.04 a share on the Nasdaq Stock Market. In the past year, it has traded between $2.06 a share and $6 a share.
Broadwing's stock rose $2.62 a share, or 19.7 percent, to $15.90 a share, on the Nasdaq. It has swung between $4.99 a share and $16.44 a share in the past year.
Level 3: http://www.level3.com
Broadwing: http://www.broadwing.com
Chart looking good...............for a big tall white candle.
Any news or volume and were off to the races..........
Cant post chart right now, but it sure look good............... ;D
Well heres a chart, 50 million in volume helps............
Quote from: Holygrale on November 03, 2006, 01:43:03 PM
Chart looking good...............for a big tall white candle.
Holygrale,
Pretty chart! Applause for your posts. I'm a day late reading them, darn it. >:D
The 34/55RSIs have given 3 consecutive Buy Signals here at 5.46...5.38...5.46 while LVLT has been finding support at the up trendline off the August low (blue trendline).
I coulda had this yesterday morning for the 5.38. >:(
Coulda...Shoulda...Woulda... :D ;D
"THE PERFECT BUY" (if there is such a thing :D ) was in the Right Shoulder of the Inverse H&S, just prior to the nice breakout. The 34/55RSIs gave a Buy Signal at 4.22. LVLT also was finding support at its 50DMA.
The Inverse H&S Target of
5.60 MADE within four cents at the
5.56 high of the Symmetrical Triangle (Green #1).
The Symmetrical Triangle broke out (another nice buy) and that target of
6.12 MADE within three cents on October 17 on the announcement of the acquisition of BWNG. The high was
6.09. Two good examples of how we can't expect exactitude from targets. But, they were darned close, and the 5.60 eventually MADE on the run-up to 6.09.
If I had gotten LVLT at 5.38 yesterday morning, my stop would be 5.11, below the first green arrow, when the first 34/55 RSI Buy Signal was issued. I wouldn't insist that the blue up trendline hold. Sometimes stocks establish a new up trendline that is less severe in its upward slope.
The risk would have been a loss of 5%.
The expectation on the trade would be at least a re-test of the 6.09 high, for a gain of 13.2%.
Risk:reward would have been 1:2½, roughly.
I'll have to play with the risk:reward numbers here, but I like this chart.
I'll show you the 34/55RSI chart next.
By the way, thanks for answering my question in the FORD folder. Another applause, but I have to wait an hour to give it to you, or I'll get bad Karma, or some such thing. :D
The FORD chart has me stumped, so I haven't done anything with it.
34/55RSI Buy Signals
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 08, 2006, 03:46:31 AM
I'll have to play with the risk:reward numbers here, but I like this chart.
Holygrale,
I ended up buying LVLT for 5.59, well above what I wanted to pay! :D >:D
I placed an order before the market, at 5.48. They didn't fill it. The low was 5.50.
I decided to go ahead and "pay up" because the chart looks so strong, and put my stop below 5.35, which was the low, prior to this second run-up to the neckline.
EDIT: Risk is a loss of 4.5%. Reward if we get 6.09-6.12 target IN PLAY: 8.9%, for roughly a 1:2 risk:reward.
This morning's low was a successful re-test of the down trendline, and also looks to be the bottom of a Right Shoulder, of a Bullish Inverse H&S, which contributed strongly to my being willing to "pay up" for the stock. :D
The neckline is 5.72-5.68. We need to take that out to the upside.
Good luck!
Melf......
"By the way, thanks for answering my question in the FORD folder. Another applause, but I have to wait an hour to give it to you, or I'll get bad Karma, or some such thing.
The FORD chart has me stumped, so I haven't done anything with it".--- No worries on the reply, was hoping she would gain some momentum but I'm on the sidelines on FORD for now.........
In the meantime, LVLT has treated me well the past few weeks, I see more upside on this one. Nice analysis your doing on it by the way.
Hey take a look at AUY for the gold play, been in since 8.50 but I also day trade it for 5k shares at a time along with core position, talk about predictability............nice and steady.
Keep it going!
Quote from: Holygrale on November 09, 2006, 11:57:50 PM
No worries on the reply, was hoping she would gain some momentum but I'm on the sidelines on FORD for now.........
Holygrale,
I was hoping so, too, but the chart does nothing for me.
setravis and I were trying to figure out what appears to be a very low P/E, but I don't know if it's accurate or not. There's a big disparity between that analyst saying "must own," and how badly FORD has responded to disappointing earnings.
Quote
In the meantime, LVLT has treated me well the past few weeks,
Great!
Quote
I see more upside on this one. Nice analysis your doing on it by the way.
Thanks. I have a late entry into the stock, at 5.59, so I might get nailed on my 5.34 stop. I was disappointed that LVLT couldn't get going on the upside yesterday, given the nice patterns on the charts, but it held up in yesterday's down market, so we'll see.
I'm a bit concerned about a possible Bear Flag resolution in the LVLT daily chart. I'll post that next.
Quote
Hey take a look at AUY for the gold play, been in since 8.50 but I also day trade it for 5k shares at a time along with core position, talk about predictability............nice and steady.
Keep it going!
I've been in GG. Sold it yesterday. I'll post you on it in that folder.
Holygrale,
Hopefully, the current pattern is a Bullish Ascending Triangle, with the highs both at 5.72.
Alternatively, it could be a Bear Flag (pattern in red), and the two upside targets that got MADE could be all that we're getting on the upside. :P
Both the blue up trendline and the up trendline of the "possible" Bear Flag came in yesterday at about 5.35, so I'll take a loss if we print 5.34.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 08, 2006, 11:26:22 AM
I ended up buying LVLT for 5.59, well above what I wanted to pay! :D >:D
I placed an order before the market, at 5.48. They didn't fill it. The low was 5.50.
EDIT: Risk is a loss of 4.5%. Reward if we get 6.09-6.12 target IN PLAY: 8.9%, for roughly a 1:2 risk:reward.
Sold LVLT at 5.34. Loss: 4.5%.
I made THREE mistakes on this trades:
1. I paid more than I wanted to pay, rather than wait for my 5.48 price, which I would have gotten.
2. I "should have" stopped out yesterday's close of 5.44, which was a break of the trendline in the daily chart (see last post).
3. I was blinding "trading the plan," which we normally should do, but in this case, that break of the trendline required an adjustment to the plan. I was late to the trade, paying 5.59, and I "hoped" that the trendline break on a closing basis DIDN'T MEAN ANYTHING!!
Duh-h-h-h... ::) Where's that Embarrassd Face? > > > :-[
If I had not made those THREE mistakes, my loss would have been 4.48-4.44: only 0.9%
There is support at the 50DMA, at 5.25, and horizontal support at the last low of 5.12, so LVLT still could rally off one of those. That trendline break at yesterday's close, though, likely will keep me from re-entering.
LVLT just jump into Nasdaq index 100.
RNIN is An IPO.
Any bosy has any ideas?
Thank you,
"LVLT" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Even if the thread has not been posted in in more that 120 days, post to "run an update" the thread is alive again......Why create a new one.... ???
The use of some common sense, you will know that your post are where they are,1 stock , 1 thread, not hard to find ;D !!
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ 8)
a lot of positive indicators. current High is 6.43 which is at least .25 above the open. trying to get in with an entry of 6.28(.15 buffer) in my paper trade.
Exit strategy - stop loss at 6.18 (.10 risk) or when the price opens and closes below the 8 moving average of the 15 minute chart.
I noticed Blocks of green at 6.42 which looks like institutional interest but then again there were blocks of red too.
Watching resistance at 6.64.
I was searching for a current thread for lvlt for the year 2007 but did not find any.
Another technical perspective would be nice to see.
In at 6.28 out at 6.34
May Re - enter when the hourly chart makes a new high above the 8 ma.
I was just reading the other boards and this may belong to the trading systems or personal logs.
(//)
yeah cramer has been pumping this stock like crazy, i want to listen to the most recent conference call tonight and then ill see how i feel about it.
How do we insert a chart here. I tried copying stockcharts and pasted it to my pictures and microsoft word but can not paste it here.
By the way I'm watching ASIA right now (January 12, 2007 @ 10:23am)
In paper I'm in at 8.67 (.15 Buffer from current High of 8.82)
Initate Stop loss at 8.57 or when price opens and closes below the 8MA of the 15 minute chart.
Out at 8.72 at 11.36 am January 12, 2007
Quote from: Eatinfolikefish on January 12, 2007, 10:41:45 AM
How do we insert a chart here. I tried copying stockcharts and pasted it to my pictures and microsoft word but can not paste it here..........
Try going to the following thread on chart posting
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3261.0
There is also some good information located under the Help function at the top of this page, then select the "posting" and you will find under "Additional Options" a section on how to attach files ie charts.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=help;page=post
hope this helps to get you started.
Happy trading / investing
Quasi
Quote from: Quasi on January 12, 2007, 01:16:38 PM
Quote from: Eatinfolikefish on January 12, 2007, 10:41:45 AM
How do we insert a chart here. I tried copying stockcharts and pasted it to my pictures and microsoft word but can not paste it here..........
Try going to the following thread on chart posting
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3261.0
There is also some good information located under the Help function at the top of this page, then select the "posting" and you will find under "Additional Options" a section on how to attach files ie charts.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=help;page=post
hope this helps to get you started.
Happy trading / investing
Quasi
Thanks Quasi,
Ares
More Expert Info Would Be Appreciated....... ;D
The postings on this LVLT board have been a major disappointment especially since there has been a very high volume of 30-70 million shares traded daily...I would expect much more interest. ???
Does anyone follow the LVLT chart so that they can contribute their insight here? Come on 3SOF stock heads... ;) David...Ramsburgh :D
How about some perspectives on the LVLT fundamentals?...Michael ;D
Where you at Melf ? Aussie ? Terliso , la-onda ? and all you other top posters...you know who I am taking about.... :D :D :D
I'm trying to create a critical mass of posters with excellent information that will help all of us.
By the way, I'm long...very much so... :P
Thank you, and best wishes for the trading year of 2007...make some dough $ ;)
as requested:
1)
Level 3 Communication initiated with "outperform" - update
Friday, January 12, 2007 2:29:42 AM ET
Credit Suisse
NEW YORK, January 12 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Credit Suisse
initiate coverage of Level 3 Communication (LVLT.NAS) with an
"outperform" rating. The target price is set to $7.5.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the
company is expected to continue to witness robust demand on account of
increased data usage. The analysts believe that the integration of
Level 3 Communication's recent acquisitions would yield significant
synergies, leading to margin expansion and positive free cash flows.
The company is likely to witness EBITDA growth of 30% during 2007,
Credit Suisse adds.
2)
17 slides presentation (Jan. 11th):
please check attached slides; especially slides 8-17
3)
Bear Stearns update
Dilutive Exchange Benefits Free Cash
• Swapping Debt for Equity. Late Thursday, Level 3 announced an agreement to exchange $490M of 10% convertible senior notes maturing in 2011 for 160.1M shares of common stock. After the exchange, approximately $390M of the notes will remain outstanding. Pro forma for the Broadwing acquisition, the transaction is 12.3% dilutive to equity holders.
• Premium Paid For Early Conversion. Beginning in 2007, the senior notes were convertible at a conversion price of $3.60. Based on today's agreement, bondholders are expected to receive 326.8 shares per $1,000 note, implying a conversion price of $3.06.
• Removing High Interest Debt. Level 3 expects the exchange to reduce cash interest expense by $47M in 2007, or 6.7% of our roughly $700M interest expense estimate. Further, the removal of $490M of debt, together with the $500M 10.75% notes tendered in late December, should partially offset the $1.25B in debt issued in October and December to facilitate the Broadwing transaction. On a pro forma basis, we estimate net debt to be approximately $6.4B.
• Equity Owners Footing the Bill. Though Level 3 will benefit from lower interest and the associated improved free cash flow, we believe the company is paying a significant premium at the expense of shareholders. While we appreciate the improved balance sheet profile, we believe there is risk of further dilution as Level 3 continues its delevering activities.
• EPS Updated To Reflect Broadwing; Moving To YE07 Price Target. We have updated our EPS estimates to reflect the acquisition of Broadwing and are introducing our YE07 price target of $7.75 (previously $6.75) based on our pro forma DCF model and adjusted for the dilutive impact of today's announcement.
4)
Jefferies ups price target to $8.50
Last week, LVLT closed its acquisition of BWNG. We are releasing
an updated model reflecting the combination.
Key Points
• Deal Closed. Announced Oct. 17, 2006, the transaction was a stock and cash deal in which shareholders received $8.10 of cash and 1.3411 shares of LVLT stock for each share of BWNG. In addition, LVLT assumed $180MM of BWNG's convertible debentures and $22MM of BWNG's capital leases - offset by
roughly $325MM of cash and investments.
• Significant Synergies. Due to the scalable and fixed cost nature of telecom networks, LVLT should be able to garner significant network and operating expense synergies as BWNG's customer base and traffic is migrated onto LVLT's network.
• Breakdown of Synergies: 40% Network/60% Operating. We expect LVLT to generate approx. $175MM of annual synergies - once the companies are integrated. 40% is expected to come from:
(1) the migration of BWNG's long haul traffic onto LVLT's long haul network and (2) from the migration of BWNG's last mile traffic onto LVLT's metro assets. The remaining 60% of is expected to come from the reduction duplicative operating expenses.
• Integration Costs. Expected to total $110-130MM over the course of 18 months. To be comprised of $20MM of network integration costs, $20-30MM of costs associated with operational integration, $30MM of transaction costs, and $40-50MM of incremental capex associated with the network integration.
• Doubles LVLT Exposure to Enterprise Market. The combination of LVLT and BWNG enterprise businesses will create a unit with more than $700MM of annual revenue, representing nearly 20% of LVLT's proforma revenue - and double the company's pre-transaction levels.
• Reduces Leverage Further. Previously, LVLT management indicated this transaction would reduce LVLT's proforma Debt/EBITDA ratio by one full turn by 2009. We believe LVLT's leverage profile could improve even more significantly.
• Increasing PT to $8.50 on Combination. We are increasing our YE07 PT to $8.50, from $7 - as we believe the addition of BWNG's business delivers an incremental $1.50 of value to LVLT shares.
Valuation/Risks
We value LVLT shares as of YE07 at $8.50, implying an EV/08E EBITDA of 15.0x and an EV/09E EBITDA of 11.9x. These multiples compare favorably with the current trading multiples of 17.0x 07E and 12.1x 08E. Primary risks for LVLT are a change in the demand environment or the addition of a new aggressive competitor.
positive IMO
cheers
Oliver
3 minute look on LVLT:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1243386212639565557&hl=en
Click here to take a 14 days free trial of the 3 Stocks on Fire Premium Service (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/_advantages.php)
Quote from: setravis on January 15, 2007, 12:30:17 PM
Where you at Melf ? Aussie ? Terliso , la-onda ? and all you other top posters...you know who I am taking about.... :D :D :D
I'm trying to create a critical mass of posters with excellent information that will help all of us.
Setravis,
I wish that you had asked about LVLT in late November, when it broke out of the Bullish Falling Wedge. :D
I played LVLT badly, back on page 3, and put it on the back burner.
The Bear Flag (in red) and the Ascending Triangle (purple...highs both 5.72)
finally quit morphing when it formed a Bullish Falling Wedge, then broke out above 5.394 on November 30, putting 6.56 IN PLAY, which got MADE on Friday, January 12.
That's all I've got, as far as targets. Friday "could be" a Bearish Doji Star Hangman, so it might pull back some, particuarly since that target got MADE.
Good luck!
Setravis,
I don't know if you're interested in the short-term, but given that the 6.56 target got MADE on Friday, basis the daily chart, I took a look at the 10-minute chart for any sign of weakness off that Bearish Doji Star Hangman candle on Friday.
LVLT has been trying to breakout above this Descending Triangle today. It's nearing the 6.53...6.53 lows of the pattern.
If 6.52 gets printed, 6.26 will be IN PLAY, as long as LVLT trades below 6.53.
If the pattern breaks out to the upside, then it's okay, at least for the time being.
Math for the Descending Triangle:
6.80 - High
6.53 - both lows
6.80 - 6.53 = 0.27 points
6.53 - 0.27 = Target: 6.26
Good luck!
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 16, 2007, 03:17:58 PM
If 6.52 gets printed, 6.26 will be IN PLAY, as long as LVLT trades below 6.53.
Setravis,
LVLT is called gap down, below 6.53. If that holds up, 6.26 will be IN PLAY. It's currently trading in the mid 6.30s in pre-market.
That would leave a Bearish Island Reversal, with two Bearish Doji Star Hangmen, on the chart if LVLT doesn't fill the opening gap, back to yesterday's 6.53 low.
fyi:
Level 3 Communications downgraded to "sell"
Wednesday, January 17, 2007 8:42:05 AM ET
Deutsche Securities
NEW YORK, January 17 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities downgrade Level 3 Communications (LVLT.NAS) from "hold" to "sell." The target price has been raised from $3.40 to $4.65.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 08:19:15 AM
LVLT is called gap down, below 6.53. If that holds up, 6.26 will be IN PLAY. It's currently trading in the mid 6.30s in pre-market.
Setravis,
LVLT has been holding all day at 6.28, which was minor prior horizontal support, but that just caved, and the Descending Triangle target of 6.26 MADE.
Quote
That would leave a Bearish Island Reversal, with two Bearish Doji Star Hangmen, on the chart if LVLT doesn't fill the opening gap, back to yesterday's 6.53 low.
Unless the Bulls can pull off a stampede into the close, today's gap down candle will leave the Bearish Island Reversal in the daily chart.
Quote from: la-onda on January 17, 2007, 11:41:20 AM
fyi:
Level 3 Communications downgraded to "sell"
Wednesday, January 17, 2007 8:42:05 AM ET
Deutsche Securities
NEW YORK, January 17 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities downgrade Level 3 Communications (LVLT.NAS) from "hold" to "sell." The target price has been raised from $3.40 to $4.65.
Oliver,
Huh? ???
Deutsche bank downgraded it, but raised their target to a price that got MADE back in September?
What are those guys smokin' over there? ::) :D
[
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 03:03:08 PM
Unless the Bulls can pull off a stampede into the close, today's gap down candle will leave the Bearish Island Reversal in the daily chart.
Here's what the Bearish Island Reversal looks like in the chart, for those not familar with the pattern.
The first Bearish Doji Star Hangman gapped up from the big white candle. Tuesday was another Bearish Dojo Star Hangman. Those both are warnings of possible change in trend when they show up after a big run
When LVLT was called gap down yesterday, that completely the "island." The two Doji Star Hangmen are stranded on an island by the gap up, then the gap down, confirming that the two Bearish Doji Star Hangmen
really were as bearish as they looked.
I can't do any better than Melf's analysis but I can say that LVLT has been on a nice 7 month bull run. If the trend remains, this is a buy at the lower trendline when it makes it back down there.
Quote from: basonista on February 06, 2007, 10:01:14 PM
I can't do any better than Melf's analysis but I can say that LVLT has been on a nice 7 month bull run. If the trend remains, this is a buy at the lower trendline when it makes it back down there.
Basonista,
You did MUCH better than Melf. You followed up on LVLT, and I didn't. Applause.
So many stocks...so little time, huh? I wish that we had caught this last week, but coulda...shoulda...woulda...
1. In my last analysis, I missed the fact that the Bullish Falling Wedge (in green) morphed into an Ascending Triangle (blue), with the flat top of the pattern at 6.08 and 6.07.
TIP: When an Ascending Triangle breaks out, I create a line parallel to the ascending line, and anchor it to the the last high (6.07) of the flat 6.08...6.07 top. That way, we can see if the Ascending Triangle morphs into a Bear Channel, which we can see that it did. The "Abandoned Twins" (circled in red) gapped above the top of the channel, then LVLT tanked on the Bearish Island Reversal.
We already knew that those "Abandoned Twins" didn't look good, though.
2. LVLT is Cramer's Speculative Pick of 2007. It gapped up at 6.18 on January 8, after he picked it, on an Ascending Triangle breakout that put
7.22 IN PLAY, came back an filled the 5.95 gap, then ran higher and MADE the Bullish Falling Wedge target of 6.56.
3. After the January 12 and January 16 Bearish Doji Star Hangmen got put in, the next morning, Deutche Bank came out and "Cramerized" Cramer, by cutting LVLT to a SELL, leaving those "Abandoned Twins" on the chart!
Quite wicked of Deutsche Bank to "Cramerize" Cramer, but all's fair in Wall Street.
;D >:D
4. Look where the selloff ended, on January 23. Smack on the ascending line (red arrow).
5. LVLT recovered to 6.38, went into a little Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple) and broke out it on Tuesday. Look where the 6.05 low of that pattern, at Data Point #4 is: smack on that ascending line, for a second validation (second red arrow).
I think that LVLT is trying to say, "What are you, Melf, an idiot? I've told you twice now. YES, that trendline
is support! If I tell you that it
isn't support, put your stop under there."
But, I don't understand why stocks abuse me in that manner. :( :'(
Target #1: Symmetrical Triangle (in purple) 6.62 is IN PLAY
Target #2: Ascending Triangle (in blue) 7.22 is IN PLAY
Basonista,
LVLT currently is indicated BID 6.45...ASK 6.47, gap up from yesterdays' 6.36 close.
CURSES!! :'( >:D
Coulda...shoulda...woulda...
can't wait for 25 cents above the open. that 25,000 blockat 6.48 must mean something good.
In at 6.49
Stop at 6.39
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 07, 2007, 09:16:41 AM
Basonista,
LVLT currently is indicated BID 6.45...ASK 6.47, gap up from yesterdays' 6.36 close.
CURSES!! :'( >:D
Coulda...shoulda...woulda...
I see they are reporting earnings tomorrow. I wonder if CSCO's good earnings yesterday are helping LVLT today. More bandwidth and services being added (CSCO) could mean more VOIP services added (LVLT).
So, what do you think, Melf? Looking good to buy or wait for a pullback to a support level? I'm not sure I would want to buy before earnings tomorrow but if they are good, this will be a rocket for sure!
There are blocks on the red after I took a position.
I'm just going with momentum for the day.
Quote from: basonista on February 07, 2007, 11:18:16 AM
So, what do you think, Melf? Looking good to buy or wait for a pullback to a support level?
Quote
Basonista,
No, I missed the entry down in the low 6.00s, at the top of the Ascending Triangle, and on those two ascending line validations.
>:(
I'm not sure I would want to buy before earnings tomorrow but if they are good, this will be a rocket for sure!
Yeah, technically, it looks very good here, so it could get a nice pop on earnings. Too much risk for me, though, entering now, at 6.58.
Quote from: Eatinfolikefish on February 07, 2007, 11:33:56 AM
There are blocks on the red after I took a position.
I'm just going with momentum for the day.
Good luck, Eatinfolikefish! ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 07, 2007, 02:01:42 AM
Target #1: Symmetrical Triangle (in purple) 6.62 is IN PLAY
Target #2: Ascending Triangle (in blue) 7.22 is IN PLAY
6.62 just MADE.
CURSES!! >:( >:D
I'm glad for Eatinfolikefish, though. ;) :D
A question for technical analysis and level 2 pros.
If there's a print of 25,000 on the green and soon after there's a print of 100,000 on the red within a 15 min period - what should the color of the volume bar be?
Out at 6.64
Good luck long term holders.
The reason I got out is because price opened and closed below the 15 minute 8sma and the Hourly Chart looked overextended.
It had 4 green candles in a row.
May get in again on the hourly pullback or when 6.68 resistance is broken especially with green blocks.
In again at 6.69
Stop loss at 6.59
If it breaks 6.80, what's the next resistance? ;D
It's amazing how these institutions move blocks without getting much noticed.
I'm still figuring out if their selling at the ask or at the bid.
If anyone has, please let me know. ::)
Out at 6.74
Good luck guys.
Quote from: Eatinfolikefish on February 07, 2007, 03:47:27 PM
Out at 6.74
Good luck guys.
Quote from: Eatinfolikefish on February 07, 2007, 03:06:34 PM
In again at 6.69....If it breaks 6.80, what's the next resistance? ;D
It's amazing how these institutions move blocks without getting much noticed.
I'm still figuring out if their selling at the ask or at the bid.
If anyone has, please let me know. ::)
Looking good Eatinfolikefish, hope the commission slippage isn't killing you on some of these trades for only a few cents. Here in Canada I'm still paying $25 per trade so it would kill me, but in month or so it will drop to $10 so that will help.
As far as the institutions moving big blocks, they don't do it like you and I on the open market. They do it thru brokers who specialize in block trades, the orders are not placed on the open market like you and I, the deal is set up in advance in the back room. Say somebody wants to buy or sell they then find someone else to take the other side of the trade and then report it to the exchange, thus the first time you see it print on the tape its already a done deal.
Quote from: Eatinfolikefish on February 07, 2007, 12:33:45 PM
A question for technical analysis and level 2 pros.
If there's a print of 25,000 on the green and soon after there's a print of 100,000 on the red within a 15 min period - what should the color of the volume bar be?
All depends what time period you're looking at on the chart, its just like price candles, if the close for that 15min period is lower than the close for the last 15 min period the volume bar will be red. Doesn't matter what happened inside the 15 min period. IE; 100 share trade at $1, then somebody dumps 1M shares and drives the price to 50cents, then some body buys 100 shares at $1.01, the price is up for the period so the volume bar will be green, along with the price candle (although it will have a long lower tail). Now if you expand the chart to say a 1 min period you would see that 1M shares as a red volume bar. I often do this when I see something odd on the chart.
With respect to resistance, Melf is the expert but I pulled up a weekly chart, as shown below, sorry its a big chart so you're gonna have to scroll or pop it up separately to see the whole thing. Had to go back a ways, as shown on the chart we're approaching the old resistance band now, but its fairly old, thus carries less weight, then its up to the Naz bubble highs after that. So could be a little bumpy here but after $8 its looking alot better.
I'm not in this one yet, watching and looking very interesting.
Happy trading / investing
Quasi
Thanks for your reply Quasi,
I'm also in Canada and I use Trade Freedom.
They charge starting from $9.95.
http://www.tradefreedom.com/en/promos/splash_1.asp?src=overture
I started a trading log under personal logs (Daytrading with consensus)
Hope to see you there.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 07, 2007, 11:39:39 AM
No, I missed the entry down in the low 6.00s, at the top of the Ascending Triangle, and on those two ascending line validations.
LVLT's reaction to earnings is a good example of why I don't like to chase trades.
Quote
Yeah, technically, it looks very good here, so it could get a nice pop on earnings. Too much risk for me, though, entering now, at 6.58.
If I had entered long in "No Man's Land," at 6.58, right below the 6.62 target that got MADE, and held it through earnings, I'd be under water on it here.
That's why entries into stocks are so important.
Let's say that we entered LVLT long in the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple) when it was testing the 6.09 - 6.07 top of the BIG Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue...the long horizontal trendline).
So, we "theoretically" bought LVLT at 6.09, the higher of the two data points.
When the 6.62 target got MADE, we "took at least 'some' profits when the target got MADE," so we took a profit of 8.7% on part of the position, and we had some cushion heading into earnings.
LVLT got smacked on earnings, as we now know, but the low that day was 6.08, and the close was our 6.09 entry. We wouldn't have been injured, and would have a break even on the remaining portion of the trade.
That 6.09 close, however, would be problematic for us because it was a violation of the up trendline that had TWO validations (the first two red arrows), which we
didn't want to see, but both the low (6.08) and the close (6.09) remained above the top of the BIG Ascending Triangle, so that was mitigating, as far as the trendline break looking so bad, was concerned.
So, where are we now?
Friday, LVLT jumped right back above the broken trendline, which came in at
6.156. The open was 6.20; the low of the session was
6.15!On Monday, February 13, that trendline comes in at
6.17983. Friday's close?
6.18. If LVLT opens UNCH, it will be sitting smack on that trendline.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 07, 2007, 02:01:42 AM
2. LVLT is Cramer's Speculative Pick of 2007. It gapped up at 6.18 on January 8, after he picked it, on an Ascending Triangle breakout that put 7.22 IN PLAY, came back an filled the 5.95 gap, then ran higher and MADE the Bullish Falling Wedge target of 6.56.
So, we're sitting at Cramer's
6.18, and 7.22 still is IN PLAY.
Quote
4. Look where the selloff ended, on January 23. Smack on the ascending line (red arrow).
LVLT sure likes to hit smack on that trendline. Friday's 6.15 low was the THIRD time.
Quote
5. LVLT recovered to 6.38, went into a little Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple) and broke out it on Tuesday. Look where the 6.05 low of that pattern, at Data Point #4 is: smack on that ascending line, for a second validation (second red arrow).
The close that day was our 6.09, which would have been a nice entry.
Quote
I think that LVLT is trying to say, "What are you, Melf, an idiot? I've told you twice now. YES, that trendline is support! If I tell you that it isn't support, put your stop under there."
Ahem!
I don't think that LVLT should have been calling me an idiot, because it
did break that trendline on Thursday, and it also didn't tell me to pay attention to the fact that
the top of the Ascending Triangle held as support on the earnings selloff.
Kinda makes you want to stick your tongue out at this stock, doesn't it? :P
What to do...what to do? :'(
I don't like violations of validated trendlines, plain and simple, and this trendline was validated TWICE (the first two red arrows), and it was violated on a closing basis.
:P :o
But, if it's for a purpose that is understandable, then I try to go along with the program.
Examples:
1. After the "Cramer BOOYAH" gap to 6.18 on January 8, LVLT came back below the Ascending Triangle to fill the 5.95 gap, and it filled it
exactly. That had purpose, and it was understandable, so it was alright.
2. After the selloff from the "Abandoned Twins," LVLT came back below the Ascending Triangle again, but we can see that it did it to validate the up trendline, and it nailed it
exactly. That also had purpose, and it was very nice, technically, so it was alright, as well.
So, now we have to ask ourselves, "Was Thursday's close below that TWICE validated trendline understandable, and acceptable. Was there a purpose for doing that?"
Well, as I said, LVLT did hold above the top of the Ascending Triangle (6.09 - 6.07), which it hadn't done the last two times that it sold off, so yes, we could understand it if it's trying to tell us, "Okay, this time the top of the Ascending Triangle
is support!" But, LVLT better not be lying to us! :D >:D
The top of the Ascending Triangle comes in on Monday, February 13, at
6.05. The low of the Symmetrical Triangle (in purple), prior to the breakout, also was
6.05, and it also was our second trendline validation.
So, I think that we could understand it, technically, if LVLT printed a low on Monday of
6.05, or say, within a penny: "I'm nailing the top of the Ascending Triangle at
6.05 to validate it as support, which I haven't done before, and now I'm moving higher."
That would be for a very clear purpose.
Anything below
6.05 becomes difficult to understand. The 50DMA is at 5.918 at Friday's close, so "maybe" LVLT will go down and tag it, and that will become support, but "maybe" it won't be support.
??? ::)
When the analysis is said and done, the bottom line for me ALWAYS is deciding if I think that the trade looks decent enough, and if I do, then structuring the trade in terms of a favorable risk:reward.
What's the risk?
On an entry of 6.18, using a 6.04 stop, it's a loss of 2.3%.
On an entry of 6.18, using a 5.89 stop, giving it a couple of pennies below the 50DMA, it's a loss of 4.7%.
What do we expect on the upside?
Minimum, a return to the 6.80 - 6.78 highs, which "could be" the top of anoher Ascending Triangle, a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of the BIG one (pattern in blue).
From a 6.18 entry, 6.78 would be a gain of 9.7%, so if we use the 5.89 stop, the risk:reward is 4.7% : 9.7%, or 1:2, which is fine. We always want the reward to be better than the risk.
And, if we take the trade, we always can move the stop up very quickly, once we determine what's going on in the trade, e.g., if 9.05 holds as support, then LVLT moves higher, we can raise the stop to 9.04.
Okay.
I'll give this one a think over, and see how it looks at the open Monday.
Amazing analysis Melf Elf,
Holygrale and Quasi was right.
It makes me want to put some money for longer term now too.
I'm still weighing out the pros and cons of holding overnight.
I got burnt on a gap down before.
At that time, GNTA looked fundamentally sound so I bought 1,000 shares at $2.25. It gapped down later on and now I'm still holding it.
GNBT looked nice at the time too, so I bought 1,000 shares at $3.13
with a stop of $3.03.
GNBT gave me a lot of chances to get out that day at a plus after it hit my mental stop - but I didn't get out - I held it overnight!
My plan at the time was: Buy at $3.13, mental stop at $3.03 then buy again at
the $2.00 range with a stop of 0.10 again and 1 more time at the $1.50 range with a stop of 0.10.
Again, I held it overnight!
Now, I'm still holding 1,000 GNBT shares at $3.13.
The 3SOF's program of holding fundamentally sound stocks with risk distributed to 15, looks very interesting.
I'm considering the premium area, but for now I would like to read up as much as I can.
Thanks for your expert analysis,
Ares
Quote from: Eatinfolikefish on February 11, 2007, 09:47:49 AM
GNBT looked nice at the time too, so I bought 1,000 shares at $3.13
with a stop of $3.03.
GNBT gave me a lot of chances to get out that day at a plus after it hit my mental stop - but I didn't get out - I held it overnight!
My plan at the time was: Buy at $3.13, mental stop at $3.03 then buy again at
the $2.00 range with a stop of 0.10 again and 1 more time at the $1.50 range with a stop of 0.10.
Again, I held it overnight!
Now, I'm still holding 1,000 GNBT shares at $3.13.
Ares,
We probably all have done something similar, and it's no fun, is it? :P
Interesting that you should mention GNBT. I happen to have been following GNBT for the past few weeks. I bought it a couple of weeks ago, sold it for a small loss, but am considering getting back in it this week, at 1.75 - 1.76.
In my opinion, one of the worst things that you can do with a loss like you have in GNBT is to "double down" on a loser: buy another 1,000 at, say 1.75, and "hope" that the market gawds will smile down on you, and that the danged thing will rally to 2.44, which would be your average cost, so that you can get out of it at a break even.
Math:
1,000 shares at 3.13 + 1,000 shares at 1.75 divided by 2 = Avg. cost: 2.44.
That strategy usually gets punished severely, because the stock already hasn't been acting properly since your entry, or you wouldn't have the kind of loss that you have. The bearish trend often continues, and the "Doubling Down" strategy only makes matters worse when we throw good money after bad.
That said, if we can support "Doubling Down," technically, in other words if we can come up with a very sound reason for doing it, that strategy can work, but there's additional risk involved, naturally, so we have to be VERY disciplined, and stop out the "Double Down" trade immediately, if it isn't working.
I'll post the specifics of that strategy for you in the GNBT folder on the Previous Picks Board, if you're interested.
Quote
The 3SOF's program of holding fundamentally sound stocks with risk distributed to 15, looks very interesting.
I'm considering the premium area, but for now I would like to read up as much as I can.
I believe that David has a two week free trial. You might check that out.
Quote
Thanks for your expert analysis
You're welcome, Ares. I slug it out, same as the rest of you. I'm glad if it was helpful.
Thanks for your reply Melf Elf,
Just to clarify though, I was not planning to double down on GNBT.
The plan was to Buy at $3.13 and respect the 10 cents stop loss at $3.03 then when it reaches the $2 range and shows some strength to take a long position again with a stop loss of another 10 cents.
The idea was to start with $3.13 x 1,000 shares
risk: $100/$250
Buy at a cheaper price with same 1,000 shares
risk: $100/$250
If I followed that plan, I could have achieved that goal.
The main problem was, I did not stick to the plan.
I Daytraded GNBT when it was about 0.80 cents on the way up to about $5.
Another mistake that I did was, I got attached to GNBT (with it's potential to provide vaccines to fight the Avian Flu).
Looking forward for more comments from you.
Thanks again,
Ares
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 11, 2007, 04:37:39 AM
The top of the Ascending Triangle comes in on Monday, February 13, at 6.05. The low of the Symmetrical Triangle (in purple), prior to the breakout, also was 6.05, and it also was our second trendline validation.
So, I think that we could understand it, technically, if LVLT printed a low on Monday of 6.05, or say, within a penny: "I'm nailing the top of the Ascending Triangle at 6.05 to validate it as support, which I haven't done before, and now I'm moving higher."
That would be for a very clear purpose.
Anything below 6.05 becomes difficult to understand. The 50DMA is at 5.918 at Friday's close, so "maybe" LVLT will go down and tag it, and that will become support, but "maybe" it won't be support.
Bought LVLT at 6.04. Stop: 5.79. Risk: a loss of 4.1%
I sure would have liked to have seen 6.05 hold as the low of the day, but the 6.03 low could be a little fakeout, so I'll go ahead and give it a chance, even to go down to the 50DMA, or to test the January 23 low of 5.82, thus my 5.79 stop.
Holding long anything below that is tough for me to justify. I'd like to see a 6.05 close today, or better.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 12, 2007, 02:58:12 PM
I'd like to see a 6.05 close today, or better.
The close was
6.04. :'(
Deutche Bank downgraded LVLT to sell on January 17, which was the morning that the stock gapped down and left the "Abandoned Twins" on the chart.
This morning, Deutsche Bank has upgraded LVLT to hold. ???
Level 3 Communications upgraded to hold at Deutsche BankBy Simon Kennedy
Last Update: 5:37 AM ET Feb 13, 2007
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Deutsche Bank upgraded Level 3 Communications Inc
to hold from sell, citing an increasing likelihood that the firm will meet near-term expectations. "With the acquisition of three well positioned competitive local exchange carriers in addition to eliminating other excess capacity in the market with the acquisitions of Genuity, Wiltel and Broadwing,
we cannot dismiss the idea that the operating environment for Level 3 may finally begin to improve after several long years of lagging industry and overall market performance," Deutsche Bank said.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 12, 2007, 02:58:12 PM
Bought LVLT at 6.04. Stop: 5.79. Risk: a loss of 4.1%
Sold 20% of my LVLT at 6.19. Gain: 2.4%.
Raising the stop of the remaining 80% to 6.01, below the past two days' 6.02 low. Excluding a gap down below 6.02, that will lock in a fractional gain on the trade.
I'm not real fond the "Gaps To Crap," then fade, that we've been seeing. :P
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 14, 2007, 09:47:35 AM
Bought LVLT at 6.04. Stop: 5.79. Risk: a loss of 4.1%
Sold 20% of my LVLT at 6.19. Gain: 2.4%.
[/quote]
Sold another 20% at 6.54, at February 7 gap resistance. Gain: 8.3%
Quote
Raising the stop of the remaining 80% to 6.01, below the past two days' 6.02 low. Excluding a gap down below 6.02, that will lock in a fractional gain on the trade.
Stop on the remaining 60% long position still is 6.01.
In LVLT at: $6.70
Watching 6.78 and 6.80 as light resistances
Just catching a ride with that buyer.
The nice thing with smaller positions is you could get in and out faster that those institutions without affecting the price a lot.
Nice market making skills.
This is what happens when it hasn't reached 25 cents above or below the open - not much movement.
I got concerned when I saw the counter block trade.
Got out at 6.73
At the minute chart, there was a huge volume that created a doji inside the bollinger band.
It was followed by a red candle - touching the lower Bollinger Band.
The top of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) came in yesterday at
6.766. The high was
6.77. The close was
6.76, a penny above last week's high of
6.75, so it's champing at the bit for a breakout, which would put 7.71 IN PLAY.
Math:
6.80 - High of the pattern (Green #1)
5.85 - Low of the pattern (Green #2)
6.80 - 5.85 = 0.95 points + breakout above 6.76 = Target: 7.71.
7.22 still is IN PLAY from the January 8, 2007 Ascending Triangle breakout (pattern in blue).
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 20, 2007, 10:12:06 AM
Bought LVLT at 6.04. Stop: 5.79. Risk: a loss of 4.1%
Sold 20% of my LVLT at 6.19. Gain: 2.4%.
Sold another 20% at 6.54, at February 7 gap resistance. Gain: 8.3%
Stop on the remaining 60% long position still is 6.01.
I'm raising my stop to 6.39.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 20, 2007, 10:12:06 AM
Bought LVLT at 6.04. Stop: 5.79. Risk: a loss of 4.1%
Sold 20% of my LVLT at 6.19. Gain: 2.4%.
Sold another 20% at 6.54, at February 7 gap resistance. Gain: 8.3%
Stop on the remaining 60% long position still is 6.01.
I'm raising my stop to 6.39. [/quote]
Stopped out of my remaining 60% of LVLT. Gain: 5.8%.
Seeking Alpha
Level 3 Communications: Ready to Rule the CDN Market?
Wednesday June 13, 5:35 am ET
Dan Rayburn submits: The market has not heard much from Level 3 Communications (NasdaqGS: LVLT - News) as to where they stand regarding their video content delivery offering since their acquisition of the SAVVIS CDN assets about five months ago.
Recently, however, I got an opportunity to meet with Level 3 at length and heard an overview of their content delivery product offering plans. As anyone who follows this industry knows, it's a good time to get into the content delivery market due to the high demand for delivery services and the fact that there are only about half a dozen providers or less who truly provide global delivery via streaming and progressive download.
After hearing Level 3 give their take on the what they want to accomplish, I found the company an interesting one to watch for a few reasons; they should have a few unique advantages when they bring their product to market:
They own and operate their own network and data centers. I know this model well from my days at Globix, when we owned and operated our own network and data centers and used to tell customers that "we can control your content from creation to distribution". It's a different value proposition that resonated well with our customers at the time and I expect it sttill does with many content creators today.
They own the Vyvx business which allows them to be able to ingest content directly into the Level 3 network. Add a few encoding studios, and customers have the ability to ingest, encode, host and deliver their content through one provider. That's something that no other delivery network has the ability to offer today.
They have contracts with many of the big media companies already for other services like data and networking, which gives them an immediate sales pipeline for a content delivery offering or any new product for that matter. In addition, they can provide customers with the build out of smaller networks for some of the content creators who are building out their own private delivery networks. That's not to say they can do all of this tomorrow or that they will automatically be successful, but I think they have a good shot at being a serious player in the industry if they put the right pieces in place and move fast enough. They are going to have to roll out the functionality of the network in phases and have in fact already announced the first round of the build out in May.
When it comes to the CDN business and assets that they bought from SAVVIS, the only real value there was the assets for the delivery of static content, not video. Anyone who knew the SAVVIS streaming network knows how old and outdated it was, since it was mostly the legacy infrastructure from the Cable & Wireless days. So Level 3 has a lot of work to do, basically building out a new CDN for streaming, as well as adding all of the services that go along with it, like reporting, storage, content ingestion etc.... not to mention all of the internal work that needs to be done to sell and support such a service. But done correctly, with all of the right pieces, it will be a valuable offering in the market.
While it won't put the other content delivery networks out of business (there is enough business out there for everyone) they do have the opportunity to be a serious player in the game with an offering that talks to more than just the delivery of bits. For the most part, it's a different kind of offering where they can sell the service to fulfill more of an entire ecosystem need to content creators, as opposed to just selling the delivery aspect. This is a trend we are seeing all of the CDNs move to as they begin to add more services to their offering like content management and transcoding.
In my opinion, the biggest competitor to Level 3 will be themselves. Many big companies never really get a product off the ground to mass market adoption because they move too slowly, have to0 much internal politics and red tape and take too long to decide on anything. For the most part, the smaller content delivery networks have been able to grab market share by staying quick and nimble. If Level 3 can combine the advantages of being a big company with the ability to move fast like a small company, then this can be the real deal. We'll be watching.
Press Release Source: Level 3 Communications
Level 3 Completes Internet2 Optical Network Implementation
Wednesday June 20, 7:00 am ET
New Nationwide Network Delivers 100 Gigabits per Second with Ability to Expand
BROOMFIELD, Colo., June 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Level 3 Communications' Business Markets Group today announced that the Internet2 nationwide, dedicated network services backbone is operational. This new 100 Gigabits per second (Gbps) network delivers an immediate increase in bandwidth and the capability for future scalability to enable emerging applications for the Internet2 research and education community. The network delivers the underlying optical technology required for Internet2 to dynamically provision multiple 10 Gbps wavelengths. This milestone enables Internet2 to remain on schedule to complete member migration from the existing network to this new backbone by later this year.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/19990721/LVLTLOGO)
"With more than 10 times the capacity of the current Internet2 backbone network, this powerful new network unlocks significant technology possibilities for our members," said Doug Van Houweling, Internet2 president and chief executive officer. "Level 3's innovative and collaborative spirit has helped keep this large and complex network project on track, even delivering the network ahead of schedule. With this latest major milestone in our network deployment, Internet2 will continue to focus our efforts on providing a smooth and seamless transition from the current network onto the new platform."
The new Internet2 network is designed to provide point-to-point dedicated circuits and IP services that can support next-generation applications in critical fields like telemedicine, radio astronomy, distance-learning and energy sciences research. The network will also serve as a platform for network researchers to develop new networking ideas and protocols. Created to enable a wide variety of bandwidth-intensive applications currently in use and under development at campuses and research labs, the network is designed to support growth and changes in Internet2 member requirements over time.
Under the terms of the multi-year agreement announced in June of 2006, Level 3 is providing dedicated backbone facilities comprising 13,500 long-haul route miles, multiple customer colocation suites and newly deployed metro fiber. Under the agreement, Level 3 is also providing wavelength and high-speed IP services to Internet2 with options for private line, metro and long-haul dark fiber services to interconnect the backbone with academic institutions.
"We are very pleased to have completed the delivery of a network of this scale for Internet2," said Randy Dunbar, senior vice president of offer management for Level 3's Business Markets Group. "We are proud to be an Internet2 business partner and to be providing a network that delivers increased bandwidth and scalability, enabling research and education communities to capitalize on technology innovations."
About Level 3 Communications
Level 3 Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: LVLT - News), an international communications company, operates one of the largest Internet backbones in the world. Through its customers, Level 3 is the primary provider of Internet connectivity for millions of broadband subscribers. The company provides a comprehensive suite of services over its broadband fiber optic network including Internet Protocol (IP) services, broadband transport and infrastructure services, colocation services, voice services and voice over IP services. These services provide building blocks that enable Level 3's customers to meet their growing demands for advanced communications solutions. The company's Web address is http://www.Level3.com.
"Level 3 Communications," "Level 3" and the Level 3 Communications logo are registered service marks of Level 3 Communications, LLC in the United States and/or other countries. Any other product, service and company names herein may be trademarks or service marks of their respective owners. Level 3 services are provided by wholly owned subsidiaries of Level 3 Communications, Inc.
Forward-Looking Statement
Some of the statements made in this press release may be forward-looking in nature. These forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance and are subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside Level 3's control, which could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the statements. The most important factors that could prevent Level 3 from achieving the stated goals include, but are not limited to the company's ability to: successfully integrate acquisitions; increase the volume of traffic on the network; defend intellectual property and proprietary rights; develop new products and services that meet customer demands and generate acceptable margins; successfully complete commercial testing of new technology and information systems to support new products and services; attract and retain qualified management and other personnel; and meet all of the terms and conditions of debt obligations. Additional information concerning these and other important factors can be found within Level 3's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Statements in this press release should be evaluated in light of these important factors.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Level 3 Communications
Finally is starting to make some positive moves.......
52wk Range: 3.37 - 6.80
Volume: 49,648,205
Avg Vol (3m): 29,395,000
Technicals
Close Above the 13-day MA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
5.91%above 13-day MA
3.55%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 24
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $8,337.95
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: -1.1625
Next Earnings: 07/24/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
Check out these buys by insiders on Oct 31st and Nov 1st
1-Nov-07 EBY DOUGLAS C
Director 1,005,000 Indirect Purchase at $2.99 - $3.01 per share. $3,015,0002
31-Oct-07 MAHONEY MICHAEL J
Director 30,000 Direct Purchase at $3.09 per share. $92,700
We miss moves due to the lack of... :-X
I think members around here went into hiding... :-\
Want some volume ...you got it !
52wk Range: 1.68 - 6.42
Volume: 106,334,891
Avg Vol (3m): 24,909,600
Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
26.65%above 13-day MA
46.41%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 97
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $5,323.09
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: -0.243902
Next Earnings: 07/24/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Perform
updated chart look...
Level 3 Communications Inc. is Today's Focus Stock on MicroStockProfit.com
Press Release Source: MicroStockProfit.com On Thursday February 17, 2011, 6:50 am EST
DALLAS, Feb. 17, 2011 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MicroStockProfit.com announces an investment report featuring Level 3 Communications Inc. (Nasdaq:LVLT - News). The report includes financial, comparative and investment analyses, and industry information you need to know to make an educated investment decision.
The full report is available at: www.microstockprofit.com/lp/LVLT
Level 3 Communications Inc. (LVLT) is an international communications company operating one of the largest communications and Internet backbones in the world. Since 1998, the Company has been focused on delivering premier services over one of the world's most advanced, IP-optimized networks. LVLT owns and maintains over 54,000 intercity route miles. It offers a comprehensive portfolio of network offerings that spans Internet Protocol (IP) services, broadband transport, colocation services, and patented Softswitch-based managed modem and voice services. It also uses these network services as a foundation for delivering enterprise telecommunications solutions.
For only $19 a month, you can sign up for our real-time stock alert service. Click here to join now: http://www.pennystocklive.com/premium-membership/
In the report, the analyst notes:
"LVLT said it lost $52 million, or $0.03 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2010, narrowing the year-ago quarter loss of $182 million, or $0.11 per share. The Internet backbone company said its most recent results included an income tax benefit of $93 million, or $0.06 per share, primarily from the release of foreign deferred tax valuation allowances, without which the Company's loss would have been $0.09 per share. Analysts, on average, expected the Company to report a loss of $0.10 per share."
"LVLT recently announced that it has enhanced its data center networking portfolio to help businesses meet increasing data center connectivity requirements and better manage costs. The Company said the enhanced portfolio now includes storage area networking (SAN) fiber channel protocol, dark fiber and managed fiber solutions."
To read the entire report visit: www.microstockprofit.com/lp/LVLT
See what investors are saying about LVLT at http://www.stockhideout.com
Get breaking news on LVLT at http://thestockmarketwatch.com/
MicroStockProfit.com is a small-cap research and investment commentary provider. MicroStockProfit.com strives to provide a balanced view of many promising small-cap companies that would otherwise fall under the radar of the typical Wall Street investor. We provide investors with an excellent first step in their research and due diligence by providing daily trading ideas, and consolidating the public information available on them. For more information on MicroStockProfit please visit: http://www.microstockprofit.com
MicroStockProfit.com Disclosure
MicroStockProfit.com is not a registered investment advisor and nothing contained in any materials should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. MicroStockProfit.com is a Web site wholly owned by BlueWave Advisors, LLC. Neither MicroStockProfit.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. Please read our report and visit our Web site, MicroStockProfit.com, for complete risks and disclosures.
Contact:
Brian
[email protected]
LVLT - Momentum...
Level 3 Communications, Inc. engages in the communications business in North America and Europe. It offers network and Internet services, including transport services, high speed Internet protocol services, dedicated Internet access.
Day's Range: 1.41 - 1.47
52wk Range: 0.83 - 1.77
Volume: 33,540,878
Avg Vol (3m): 21,311,900
Market Cap: 2.35B
Technicals
Most Actives
Last Price Quote is:
9.49%above 13-day EMA
20.56%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 80
The Golden Cross...
Insider buying...
10k share purchase is meaningful insider buying, but when a director purchases Over 100k share at 1.23, it may be time to reevaluate and reweigh ones holdings. Apparently, Fairfax financial has also increased its LVLT holdings recently but I don't have the link.
Technically a flag is forming with resistance at 1.3.
AKAM took a beating on the concept that its margins will fall as it competes with the likes of LVLT. This same story may repeat itself with other competition leading to increasing revenues and hopefully earnings for LVLT. Nearterm AKAM may bounce back (Swing trade) but I think their recognition of margin issues in network services and their current attempt to compensate for this through diversification of their primary business may keep them range bound.
I think current share value in LVLT may invite some long term speculative investments that bring back April/2010 highs. However, breaking through that level may require more than insider buying and margin dominance.
Level 3 to Buy Global Crossing in $3 Billion Deal
April 11, 2011, 8:25 am Mergers & Acquisitions
Level 3 Communications announced on Monday that it would buy Global Crossing (GLBC) in a transaction worth $3 billion.
The deal values Global Crossing at $23.04 a share — about 56 percent above the telecommunication company's closing price on Friday. As part of the acquisition, Level 3 will also assume $1.1 billion of debt.
The deal would combine the two companies' fiber-optic networks over three continents, offering data and voice connections to more than 70 countries. The combined entity will create a company with revenue of $6.26 billion and earnings of $1.57 billion, after taking into account projected cost savings.
"This is a transformational combination that we believe will deliver significant value to the investors, customers and employees of both Level 3 and Global Crossing," James Q. Crowe, chief executive of Level 3, said in a statement. "The complementary fit between the two companies' networks, service portfolios and customers is compelling."
Level 3 shares rose 12 percent in premarket trading. Global Crossing was up 59 percent.
Level 3 already has significant shareholder support. Singapore Technologies Telemedia, Global Crossing's largest investor with a stake of about 60 percent, has agreed to vote in favor of the acquisition. Once the deal closes, ST Telemedia is to nominate directors to the board, relative to the size of its stake.
"This strategic combination is an important milestone for both Global Crossing and Level 3, and a value-creating proposition for all stakeholders," Lee Theng Kiat, chief executive officer of Singapore Technologies Telemedia, said in a statement. "Going forward, we believe the combined strengths of the two companies will position it in a very favorable, competitive position to expand in the U.S. and compete globally."
Singapore Technologies Telemedia bought the stake in Global Crossing out of bankruptcy in 2003. Once a high-flying network operator, Global Crossing stumbled in the aftermath of the dot-com bust, filing for Chapter 11 in early 2002.
Level 3's advisers included Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley; Rothschild provided the fairness opinion; and Willkie Farr & Gallagher was the legal adviser.
Goldman Sachs advised Global Crossing, while Latham & Watkins served as the company's legal adviser. Singapore Technologies Telemedia worked with Credit Suisse Securities.
This Deal May Be Doomed From the Start
April 12, 2011
I'm not sure who put a quarter in the stock market over the weekend, but yesterday was truly a merger Monday. We saw deals literally emerging from the woodwork. Endo Pharmaceuticals agreed to buy American Medical Systems; Fiat announced its intentions to up its stake in Chrysler; Flowers Foods announced the purchase of Tasty Baking; and Valeant Pharmaceuticals hinted it'd be willing to up its hostile takeover bid for Cephalon.
This snapshot represents just half of the deals that were agreed upon this weekend. But one deal stood out and made me shake my head. Whereas every move mentioned above incorporates at least one dominant sector player, the $1.9 billion deal between Level 3 Communications (Nasdaq: LVLT) and Global Crossing (Nasdaq: GLBC) has that deer-in-the-headlights feel to it.
Level 3 is a telecommunications company that derives its revenue from transmitting data across its fiber optic networks in the U.S. and Europe. The company has never posted a quarterly profit! That's 44 losses in the past 44 quarters. Combine that with the company's negative book value and more than $6.5 billion in debt and you can clearly see why this is the ... purchasing company???
It's not surprising that Level 3 is choosing to finance this deal through an all-stock offering -- 16 shares of Level 3 for each Global Crossing share -- because it's unlikely it could get the financing to support the buyout since it burned through $97 million in free cash flow in the trailing 12 months. Now let's take a look at what Level 3 is purchasing.
Global Crossing, which possesses a fiber optic network spanning across the lucrative Latin American market, emerged in 2005 from a $30 billion bankruptcy only to pick up right where it left off. Like its new parent, Global Crossing hasn't produced a single quarter of profitability. The company, which boasts $1.1 billion in net debt, managed just $82 million in free cash flow over the trailing 12 months.
Even with synergy costs of what analysts estimate could be up to $340 million, I'm not so sure that the combined entity would be profitable even then! The net debt of the combined company will exceed $7 billion, which is downright scary. It's true that AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) are even more leveraged to their debt than the Level 3-Global Crossing combination will be, but it's also a fact that AT&T and Verizon have consistently generated a profit on the $9.5 billion and $15.2 billion in free cash flow the two have generated respectively in the trailing 12 months.
So far, I haven't even mentioned what a hypercompetitive space data transmission can be. The combination should help eliminate some costs, but it doesn't speed up growth for a sector still struggling with a rebounding economy. With a sea of choices in data transmission, it's going to be difficult for this new company to establish itself as the premier choice, especially given the inconsistent track records of Level 3 and Global Crossing.
If you ask me, this combination has all the markings of a merger of the weakest links in the telecommunications sector and may be reason enough to avoid both companies until they net shareholders a profitable quarter.
Does this deal have a chance to succeed?
Hi setravis,
thanks for all the interesting info you keep sending us.
I keept meaning to tell you that earlier but never really find the time.
So here I am.
Thanks again for the great work!
ph
You are welcome, a pleasure to serve.
Playing the Markets...is a deep passion of mine.
Good luck with all your trading..make some buck$ ;)