LVLT - Sector: Technology---Industry: Diversified Communication Services

[purple]

LVLT just jump into Nasdaq index 100.

RNIN is An IPO.

Any bosy has any ideas?

Thank you,

[setravis]

"LVLT" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.       
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.      
Even if the thread has not been posted in in more that 120 days, post to "run an update" the thread is alive again......Why create a new one....
The use of some common sense, you will know that your post are where they are,1 stock , 1 thread, not hard to find !!
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$     

[Ares]

a lot of positive indicators.  current High is 6.43 which is at least .25 above the open. trying to get in with an entry of 6.28(.15 buffer) in my paper trade.
Exit strategy - stop loss at 6.18 (.10 risk) or when the price opens and closes below the 8 moving average of the 15 minute chart.
I noticed Blocks of green at 6.42 which looks like institutional interest but then again there were blocks of red too.
Watching resistance at 6.64.
I was searching for a current thread for lvlt for the year 2007 but did not find any.
Another technical perspective would be nice to see.
In at 6.28 out at 6.34
May Re - enter when the hourly chart makes a new high above the 8 ma.
I was just reading the other boards and this may belong to the trading systems or personal logs.

[cdrankwalter]

yeah cramer has been pumping this stock like crazy, i want to listen to the most recent conference call tonight and then ill see how i feel about it.

[Ares]

How do we insert a chart here. I tried copying stockcharts and pasted it to my pictures and microsoft word but can not paste it here.
By the way I'm watching ASIA right now (January 12, 2007 @ 10:23am)
In paper I'm in at 8.67 (.15 Buffer from current High of 8.82)
Initate Stop loss at 8.57 or when price opens and closes below the 8MA of the 15 minute chart.
Out at 8.72 at 11.36 am January 12, 2007

[Quasi]

How do we insert a chart here. I tried copying stockcharts and pasted it to my pictures and microsoft word but can not paste it here..........

Try going to the following thread on chart posting
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3261.0

There is also some good information located under the Help function at the top of this page,  then select the "posting" and you will find under "Additional Options" a section on how to attach files ie charts.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=help;page=post

hope this helps to get you started.

Happy trading / investing
Quasi

[Ares]

How do we insert a chart here. I tried copying stockcharts and pasted it to my pictures and microsoft word but can not paste it here..........

Try going to the following thread on chart posting
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3261.0

There is also some good information located under the Help function at the top of this page,  then select the "posting" and you will find under "Additional Options" a section on how to attach files ie charts.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=help;page=post

hope this helps to get you started.

Happy trading / investing
Quasi

Thanks Quasi,

Ares

[setravis]

More Expert Info Would Be Appreciated.......

The postings on this LVLT board have been a major disappointment especially since there has been a very high volume of 30-70 million shares traded daily...I would expect much more interest. 

Does anyone follow the LVLT chart so that they can contribute their insight here? Come on 3SOF stock heads... David...Ramsburgh 

How about some perspectives on the LVLT fundamentals?...Michael 

Where you at Melf ? Aussie ? Terliso , la-onda ? and all you other top posters...you know who I am taking about....

I'm trying to create a critical mass of posters with excellent information that will help all of us.

By the way, I'm long...very much so...

Thank you, and best wishes for the trading year of 2007...make some dough $

[la-onda]

as requested:
1)

Level 3 Communication initiated with "outperform" - update

Friday, January 12, 2007 2:29:42 AM ET
Credit Suisse
NEW YORK, January 12 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Credit Suisse
initiate coverage of Level 3 Communication (LVLT.NAS) with an
"outperform" rating. The target price is set to $7.5.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the
company is expected to continue to witness robust demand on account of
increased data usage. The analysts believe that the integration of
Level 3 Communication's recent acquisitions would yield significant
synergies, leading to margin expansion and positive free cash flows.
The company is likely to witness EBITDA growth of 30% during 2007,
Credit Suisse adds.

2)
17 slides presentation (Jan. 11th):
please check attached slides; especially slides 8-17

3)
Bear Stearns update

Dilutive Exchange Benefits Free Cash

• Swapping Debt for Equity. Late Thursday, Level 3 announced an agreement to exchange $490M of 10% convertible senior notes maturing in 2011 for 160.1M shares of common stock. After the exchange, approximately $390M of the notes will remain outstanding. Pro forma for the Broadwing acquisition, the transaction is 12.3% dilutive to equity holders.
• Premium Paid For Early Conversion. Beginning in 2007, the senior notes were convertible at a conversion price of $3.60. Based on today's agreement, bondholders are expected to receive 326.8 shares per $1,000 note, implying a conversion price of $3.06.
• Removing High Interest Debt. Level 3 expects the exchange to reduce cash interest expense by $47M in 2007, or 6.7% of our roughly $700M interest expense estimate. Further, the removal of $490M of debt, together with the $500M 10.75% notes tendered in late December, should partially offset the $1.25B in debt issued in October and December to facilitate the Broadwing transaction. On a pro forma basis, we estimate net debt to be approximately $6.4B.
• Equity Owners Footing the Bill. Though Level 3 will benefit from lower interest and the associated improved free cash flow, we believe the company is paying a significant premium at the expense of shareholders. While we appreciate the improved balance sheet profile, we believe there is risk of further dilution as Level 3 continues its delevering activities.
• EPS Updated To Reflect Broadwing; Moving To YE07 Price Target. We have updated our EPS estimates to reflect the acquisition of Broadwing and are introducing our YE07 price target of $7.75 (previously $6.75) based on our pro forma DCF model and adjusted for the dilutive impact of today's announcement.

4)

Jefferies ups price target to $8.50

Last week, LVLT closed its acquisition of BWNG. We are releasing
an updated model reflecting the combination.

Key Points

• Deal Closed. Announced Oct. 17, 2006, the transaction was a stock and cash deal in which shareholders received $8.10 of cash and 1.3411 shares of LVLT stock for each share of BWNG. In addition, LVLT assumed $180MM of BWNG's convertible debentures and $22MM of BWNG's capital leases - offset by
roughly $325MM of cash and investments.
• Significant Synergies. Due to the scalable and fixed cost nature of telecom networks, LVLT should be able to garner significant network and operating expense synergies as BWNG's customer base and traffic is migrated onto LVLT's network.
• Breakdown of Synergies: 40% Network/60% Operating. We expect LVLT to generate approx. $175MM of annual synergies - once the companies are integrated. 40% is expected to come from:
(1) the migration of BWNG's long haul traffic onto LVLT's long haul network and (2) from the migration of BWNG's last mile traffic onto LVLT's metro assets. The remaining 60% of is expected to come from the reduction duplicative operating expenses.
• Integration Costs. Expected to total $110-130MM over the course of 18 months. To be comprised of $20MM of network integration costs, $20-30MM of costs associated with operational integration, $30MM of transaction costs, and $40-50MM of incremental capex associated with the network integration.
• Doubles LVLT Exposure to Enterprise Market. The combination of LVLT and BWNG enterprise businesses will create a unit with more than $700MM of annual revenue, representing nearly 20% of LVLT's proforma revenue - and double the company's pre-transaction levels.
• Reduces Leverage Further. Previously, LVLT management indicated this transaction would reduce LVLT's proforma Debt/EBITDA ratio by one full turn by 2009. We believe LVLT's leverage profile could improve even more significantly.
• Increasing PT to $8.50 on Combination. We are increasing our YE07 PT to $8.50, from $7 - as we believe the addition of BWNG's business delivers an incremental $1.50 of value to LVLT shares.

Valuation/Risks
We value LVLT shares as of YE07 at $8.50, implying an EV/08E EBITDA of 15.0x and an EV/09E EBITDA of 11.9x. These multiples compare favorably with the current trading multiples of 17.0x 07E and 12.1x 08E. Primary risks for LVLT are a change in the demand environment or the addition of a new aggressive competitor.

positive IMO
cheers
Oliver

[David Randolph]

3 minute look on LVLT:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1243386212639565557&hl=en


Click here to take a 14 days free trial of the 3 Stocks on Fire Premium Service

[Melf Elf]

Where you at Melf ? Aussie ? Terliso , la-onda ? and all you other top posters...you know who I am taking about....

I'm trying to create a critical mass of posters with excellent information that will help all of us.

Setravis,

I wish that you had asked about LVLT in late November, when it broke out of the Bullish Falling Wedge. 

I played LVLT badly, back on page 3, and put it on the back burner. 

The Bear Flag (in red) and the Ascending Triangle (purple...highs both 5.72) finally quit morphing when it formed a Bullish Falling Wedge, then broke out above 5.394 on November 30, putting 6.56 IN PLAY, which got MADE on Friday, January 12.

That's all I've got, as far as targets.  Friday "could be" a Bearish Doji Star Hangman, so it might pull back some, particuarly since that target got MADE.

Good luck!

[Melf Elf]

Setravis,

I don't know if you're interested in the short-term, but given that the 6.56 target got MADE on Friday, basis the daily chart, I took a look at the 10-minute chart for any sign of weakness off that Bearish Doji Star Hangman candle on Friday.

LVLT has been trying to breakout above this Descending Triangle today.  It's nearing the 6.53...6.53 lows of the pattern.

If 6.52 gets printed, 6.26 will be IN PLAY, as long as LVLT trades below 6.53.

If the pattern breaks out to the upside, then it's okay, at least for the time being.

Math for the Descending Triangle:

6.80 - High

6.53 - both lows

6.80 - 6.53 = 0.27 points

6.53 - 0.27 = Target: 6.26

Good luck!

[Melf Elf]

If 6.52 gets printed, 6.26 will be IN PLAY, as long as LVLT trades below 6.53.

Setravis,

LVLT is called gap down, below 6.53.  If that holds up, 6.26 will be IN PLAY.  It's currently trading in the mid 6.30s in pre-market.

That would leave a Bearish Island Reversal, with two Bearish Doji Star Hangmen, on the chart if LVLT doesn't fill the opening gap, back to yesterday's 6.53 low.

[la-onda]

fyi:
Level 3 Communications downgraded to "sell"

Wednesday, January 17, 2007 8:42:05 AM ET
Deutsche Securities

NEW YORK, January 17 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities downgrade Level 3 Communications (LVLT.NAS) from "hold" to "sell." The target price has been raised from $3.40 to $4.65.

[Melf Elf]

LVLT is called gap down, below 6.53.  If that holds up, 6.26 will be IN PLAY.  It's currently trading in the mid 6.30s in pre-market.

Setravis,

LVLT has been holding all day at 6.28, which was minor prior horizontal support, but that just caved, and the Descending Triangle target of 6.26 MADE.

That would leave a Bearish Island Reversal, with two Bearish Doji Star Hangmen, on the chart if LVLT doesn't fill the opening gap, back to yesterday's 6.53 low.

Unless the Bulls can pull off a stampede into the close, today's gap down candle will leave the Bearish Island Reversal in the daily chart.

fyi:
Level 3 Communications downgraded to "sell"

Wednesday, January 17, 2007 8:42:05 AM ET
Deutsche Securities

NEW YORK, January 17 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities downgrade Level 3 Communications (LVLT.NAS) from "hold" to "sell." The target price has been raised from $3.40 to $4.65.

Oliver,

Huh? 

Deutsche bank downgraded it, but raised their target to a price that got MADE back in September?

What are those guys smokin' over there?