3SOF

Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (DESC) creates and delivers products and solutions to the emerging decentralized energy marketplace, giving users greater control over their energy cost, quality and reliability. As the parent company of Proton Energy Systems (http://www.protonenergy.com) and Northern Power Systems (http://www.northernpower.com), Distributed Energy Systems delivers a combination of practical, ready-today energy solutions and the solid business platforms for capitalizing on the changing energy landscape. For more information visit http://www.distributed-energy.com.

The breakway gap was made when the company raised guidance for the full year 2005:

Distributed Energy Raises Guidance for 2005 (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BDB71DA91%2D8E1A%2D4C6B%2DA27D%2D58AF27B80797%7D)

As you can see in the chart below, DESC jumped above a resistance level without touching it, which is the definition of a breakaway gap (those that are never closed  8)):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2777;image)

Energy has been the hot sector of the year, and that's a wave that lifts all boats (what is the correct expression? thanks), specially the ones with improving fundamentals as DESC.

The stock doesn't look like it wants to close the gap, it looks like it is running away from this area. This is one of my preferred chart patterns, since risk is low (you don't want to see the stock start coming down to fill the gap) and potential profit is high:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=2778;image)

I've decided to buy DESC for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio at today's open.

3 Stocks on Fire Community take on DESC (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=search2&search=DESC)

This analysis is part of Top 5 Stocks for Tuesday (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1821.0), conducted by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire. David Randolph is managing a public and diversified portfolio which is up 144% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php).

www.3stocksonfire.org is a traders and investors new Community growing everyday, with 2350 registered users in just about 2 months. We exchange great trading strategies and stock picks everyday on our boards. If you want to join our Community and receive a free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).

Earnings are due on August 4th which may keep one wary for holding this long, although it did raise 2005 guidance. Current heavy volume buying may trigger an exhaustion run towards psychological $10 resistance as it starts to develop the early stages of its parabolic form. All three technical indicators are strong - when these develop bearish divergences with respect to price does one need to get worried. A solid Investors Business Daily ranking is an added bonus. The move retains a double top breakout from June 17th on the point-n-figure chart with a price target of $9.50.

new contract

DESC Distributed Energy subsidiary selected by New York Power Authority to Provide Renewable Power System (6.06 -0.03)

Co announces the New York Power Authority (N.Y.P.A.)has commissioned DESC subsidiary Northern Power Systems, to design and install a 165- kilowatt power generation system for the New York City Department of Environmental Protection at its Owl's Head Wastewater Treatment Facility in Brooklyn, New York. Northern Power is undertaking this project under its master implementation contract with N.Y.P.A. to design and install distributed generation projects across the state. 

anyone have a price target in mind? just bought in at $6.15

Another great pick dave. Applaud.

You nailed it Dave. Thanks. Got in at $6.05 this am. keep it coming.

Applaud !! Applaud !!! In @6.04. Had to go to inlaws for a couple hours this afternoon and when I got back awesome surprise.

Keep up the great work men. You are the best.....

Thank You

Great call, in at 6.07.

Awesome site, we are fortunate to have talent like this at our click of the mouse, a giant opportunity is ours.

Thank you.

Applaud

Great call Dave. In this morning.

Thanks for your kind words  :-*

We've had these news yesterday: New York Power Authority Selects Northern Power to Provide Renewable Power System (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=1612191&guid=%7B1479A430%2D2F99%2D491F%2D84D5%2DC11F4F585287%7D&symb=)

For a company worth $243.37M this seems to be a big deal (no time now to dig much). The stock is up 5% more in pre-market (it is possible for it to fizzle a bit and come down to close the opening gap, I don't know).

My trading plan is no plan for now, other than letting the profits run ...  8)

Protecting my profit sold at 6.92.  Good luck to those still holding.  Great pick Dave!!

 I appreciate your call on DESC, David.
I initiated in Distributed Energy Systems, Inc (NASDAQ:DESC) in September, 2004 @$2.12, but most of my position was developed through accumulation in the mid-$3 range, in March, 2005, with my last adds to position in the low $4's, six weeks ago...

The Conference Calls of DESC are exceptional. In fact, I''ve looked for the kind of synergy between Proton Energy and Northern Power (respectively-the hydrogen generation and energy solutions sides of DESC) with other companies where there was a merger of talents- Hydrogenics (NASDAQ:HYGS), which grew from the merger of Hydrogenics and Stewart, and also with Quantum Fuel Technologies (NASDAQ:QTWW)- which is currently showing strength from the integration of  Quantum and Starcraft, now its Tec-Star division...

My price goal for 50% of my position of XX,000 shares of DESC is $9.50, by November, 2005. That's pretty much in line with the Point and Figure numbers:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?DESC

I have to balance two factors- DESC has attracted very short term traders; and when DESC retraces, it has done so very dramatically. Therefore- a stock vulnerable to profit-taking.

The other side of the coin- DESC had promised "lumpy" earnings for 2005,, with the nicest  lumps coming in the months now ahead.

DESC is going to be disrtributing Hogens(TM) - their portable hydrogen generators-through
Airgas, Praxair, AND Air Products & Chemicals. 2006 will be a banner year.
Northern Power- the wind turbine/energy solutions side of DESC, is also generating very impressive sales- its clientele are are the best and most influentiail clients.....

So my compromise:
1) Reduce just 8% of my position in DESC on a GTC sell order which, with any buying interest whatsoever tomorrow, will fill in the AM...
2) Keep my 92% long position, and reassess as the Conference Call on Thursday, August 4th, 2005  draws closer. Perhaps another 8% divestiture at $8.00?
3) Consider redeploying some of my capital proceeds to a company I've come to consider similar to DESC- only in that it offers energy solutions, and is very agressive in marketing to high-profile clients.
That company is China Energy Savings Technology (NASDAQ:CESV) . I've been accumulating CESV in the higher$8's, and low $9's.

All the best, David.
Again- thank you for your choices.

                                                    -rand

PS- As I mentioned to you in an email, we share the same first and last names. This got my immediate attention.
                                D.R.

David Randolph says great analysis David Randolph  LOL, amazing, you're welcome David  :D

DESC has a bullish trend after a breakaway gap, everybody sees that. I would like to hold this winner, but I have a problem. You see, any particular stock strategy must be subdued by the general portfolio management strategy, and I have a philosophy: the way to stop a string of losses is to take a profit, even if it is a small one.

Psychologically that will change my apparently losing money mindset.

Over the last couple of days I took 3 losses in a row and GEMS today will be the fourth. Taking a profit in DESC will stop this and will make me psychologically available for profits, refusing to enter a down mood.

DESC did a doji too, which shows indecision from traders to continue the bull run, so profit taking probably is on his way as David Randolph (not me, lol) says.

So I'll take a profit on DESC today, not for a particular reason, I need to stop a string of four consecutive losses.

i was surprised to see you buy in the first place on a GAP up.
i am glad to see you take profits when possible.
i think that was a problem we had lately (or at least i did).

"letting the profits roll" is good but sometimes it seems they fade away fast too.

Sold DESC @$6.81

I have decided to hold this stock a little longer.  I made my decision based on the close today.  The stock closed today above the body of the doji made yesterday  ;D.  I know that earnings are coming out soon, and I still think this stock will have a run up into earnings.  My target is currently around 8-8.50.

Wow what is up with this stock today? They came out with amazing earnings last night, and the stock is reacting like they just declared bankruptcy!! :(

Probably it's just that old thing jb, «RULE 22: Buy the rumor, sell the fact».

I don't expect DESC to close that gap opened, that was a breakway gap. I'll probably buy some of DESC next week.

Thanks David, I hope so, I made a bad move and bought at $7.30 afterhours when they announced earnings, the numbers look great so I bought :( Guess I have a lot to learn.

Have a good weekend.

I held my $6/shr after David sold, but certainly did not see this drop coming.

I also saw a great report yesterday (i.e. beat their own revenue guidance by 20%). I took the opportunity to increase my position by 50% under $6 this morning.

I compared to BCON, DESC has $40-50M revenue (it looks like BCON is still in trial period), although BCON does have a larger market cap.

Many positive factors in DESC:

- Very good revenue growth so far and even a lot more 2nd half (quotation increased by 5x so far this year)
- Hot area (energy bill to be signed by the President on Monday), and also what the market needs
- Many analysts interest on the CC today, and the mood seems to be upbeat
- management seems to be conservative in guidance but they are clearly very upbeat about the growth potential
- possibly profitable in 2-3 Qs (their own target is to be 1st to be profitable in the new energy sector)
- I saw many $1M worth of orders (i.e. 200K orders) went through last week, clearly MMs are accumulating

One negative:

- Margin is going to be about only 25% (don't know why the margin is so low), but management is going to focus on improving the margin

It seems that this one has both short term and long term potentials

Sorry, I meant DESC has a larger market cap (compared to BCON).

They beat their recently revised (revised only 2 weeks ago) revenue guidance by 20%.

I just saw this on www.q-trader.com, and it's very similar to my own conclusion:

DESC reports stellar results, bright future ahead...

DESC suffered a "sell the news" today as investors took earnings day profits on what has been a monster run over the past few weeks. We are buyers of the dip and believe today's conference call was nothing short of phenomenal. Our impression was that the institutional shareholders on the call were duly impressed with what was said and will be buying this dip, along with us.

Here are some highlights from the conference call:

Positive

DESC's Northern Power subsidiary has formed an Operation & Maintenance division to obtain long-term, lucrative, and high-margin service contracts for distributed power projects around the globe. The division burst out of the gate with a $10 mil backlog in the first 3 months of operations, and the company sounded incredibly optimistic about it's prospect's going forward. We believe an O&M division provides DESC an incredible opportunity to leverage their reputation and expertise to generate recurring, high-margin revenue. If the O&M division's current growth rate is maintained or accelerated, there is a high probability that DESC will once again have to raise revenue guidance in the near-future. We all know what happened last time they did that, and keep in mind the O&M revenue was not accounted for in the Q2 results.

Company signaled a potential sales explosion from the HOGEN distributors in the near-future. They cited a 500% increase in quotation activity since the mega distributors signed on a few months ago, and keep in mind they are still training sales reps and have not even commenced sales. Chip was very direct in saying that the distributors are overwhelmingly enthusiastic about sales prospects for the HOGEN's, a product with multi-billion dollar potential. In his words, it is a "dream come true."

The distributors have trained hundreds of sales reps and are soon to commence sales. This product is going from a mom and pop sales force to the largest gas products distributors in the world.

Company has an internal goal of achieving 25% blended gross margins by the end of '06, which would represent a dramatic improvement over current levels. Chip emphasized that gross margins would be helped more so by the high-margin product launches (O&M, Hogens) than be operational improvements at Northern Power's core divisions. However, he did say there were measures being taken to control costs at the core divisions as well.

Negatives


Concern over gross margins was the major negative. The company posted a substantial increase in YOY and sequential revenue but didn't manage to reign in gross margins enough to impact the bottom line. The company said the gross margin trouble was attributable to overflow from pre cost-control Northern Power contracts, as well as a transitional phase at Proton. According to Chip, who has proven himself quite credible, these gross margin issues are being resolved and shareholders can expect the staggering top-line growth will translate into EPS improvements going forward.

QuoteThanks David, I hope so, I made a bad move and bought at $7.30 afterhours when they announced earnings, the numbers look great so I bought Sad Guess I have a lot to learn.

The lesson you should take: don't buy just because of news, specially if the stock previously had a big run up - the news probably was already discounted.

But I guess DESC has upside potential, just wouldn't like to see it penetrate the gap on the chart, after all this was a breakaway gap, so the stock should run away from this level ...

I'd really like to buy back into this stock - phenominal long term investment.

Nature abhors a Vacuum - will wait for that gap at 5-5.5 to fill.

I am surprised it's not there yet

Started down, but showed good strength in picking up 2%.

I'm sure some of that was momentum from the energy bill, or maybe the proverbial bounce, but still thinking this may pull back some more before it's next charge up.

My re-entry point still at that 5 - 5.50 range

I have 15 minutes to write about 3 buy backs I'm going to make today. The chart and the rest of the thread tells the whole story. More details on the first update after the close.

DESC is buy back #1 !

(This recommendation was made by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire. 3 Stocks on Fire is a Community of stock traders and investors. Our 2851 members change trading ideas and strategies on our message boards everyday. We welcome you as a new member of the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please take 10 seconds to register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register) and receive our free newsletter)

David,

Great company - I've been waiting to re-enter

Hasn't this stock been teetering into the gap enough to think support is eroding?
I'm no TA master by any means, but always operated under theory that all gaps eventually get filled.

It's got a nice jump this morning, but that may be due to 3SOF?
LOL - You'r becoming the E.F. Hutton on the internet

QuoteHasn't this stock been teetering into the gap enough to think support is eroding?
I'm no TA master by any means, but always operated under theory that all gaps eventually get filled.

Support is the ascending trendline, not the gap. Gaps get filled, except for runaway gaps, which is the case with DESC (well, they may get filled, but probably just some years later).

QuoteIt's got a nice jump this morning, but that may be due to 3SOF?
LOL - You'r becoming the E.F. Hutton on the internet

Not at all, the stock had 600 trades at this moment, only about 50 or 60 3 Stocks on Fire members read this recommendation and probably only 5 or 10 followed it.

Anyway, that won't be a problem after October 1st, when this board will only be available for subscribers (there are 70 subscribers at this moment, many thanks for them  :)).

Who's that E.F. Hutton? Thanks.

What I meant to say was I have watched this stock trade - intraday down into the gap - My thought was since there was a sizeable gap between 4.88 - 5.50 that a good re-entry point was around 5.00

How do you differentiate a breakaway gap from a "regular" gap?

---------

While the board is free (I'm also weighing becoming a paying member) - I'll guarantee your generating a lot of folks who stop in and take a look to see what your selections are. They may never even register, just read.

Not sure how old you are, but when I was a kid there were a series of commercials for a brokerage house called E.F. Hutton. The commercial would always be a large gathering of people (restaurant, ballgame, etc.) and then show 2 people talking. One guy would say to another "Well my broker is E.F Hutton" and the crowd would go silent with everyone bending an ear to eavesdrop.

Then the  tag line of the commercials in a James Earl Jones voice: "When EF Hutton talks - People listen"

QuoteHow do you differentiate a breakaway gap from a "regular" gap?

A simple gap up occurs when the open is above the previous day high. A breakaway gap occurs when the stock jumps above a resistance level to a new relative high. You see, you have a resistance level and the stock opens above that, not even touching it, and never looks back to fill the gap (well, never in the short term  :D)

QuoteWhile the board is free (I'm also weighing becoming a paying member) - I'll guarantee your generating a lot of folks who stop in and take a look to see what your selections are. They may never even register, just read.

That would be nice KCScott, you still got about a month and a half to decide. Yes, we're getting about 7,000 different people visiting 3 Stocks on Fire everyday  :o

QuoteNot sure how old you are, but when I was a kid there were a series of commercials for a brokerage house called E.F. Hutton. The commercial would always be a large gathering of people (restaurant, ballgame, etc.) and then show 2 people talking. One guy would say to another "Well my broker is E.F Hutton" and the crowd would go silent with everyone bending an ear to eavesdrop.

Then the  tag line of the commercials in a James Earl Jones voice: "When EF Hutton talks - People listen"

Cool story  :D Never heard of it, but that's normal if you consider, not my age, but where I live, which is across the Atlantic Ocean.

Thanks KC, let's see if DESC advances to a new high above $7.5 ... where's randstory? I'm sure he's glad with the move on DESC today.

This is DESC's profile:

«Distributed Energy Systems Corp Formerly known as Proton Energy Systems, Inc.. The Group's principal activities are to design, develop and manufacture proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrochemical products for commercial applications. The PEM technology is incorporated in two families of products namely, hydrogen generators and regenerative fuel cell systems. The hydrogen generators convert water and electricity into high purity, pressurized hydrogen gas using PEM electrolysis. The regenerative fuel cell systems integrates PEM hydrogen generation technology with PEM fuel cell technology to create a power quality device that produces hydrogen from water and electricity, stores the hydrogen, and uses the hydrogen as fuel for the production of electricity. The products of the Group function as power generating and energy storage devices.The registered trademarks include Proton(R), Hogen(R), Unigen(R), Fuelgen(TM), Hipress(TM) and Transforming Energy(TM). On 10-Dec-2003, the Group acquired Northern Power Systems Inc.»

I have to admit, I know little about these issues. I don't understand the business, using electricity and water to produce hydrogen, then use the hydrogen to make electricity again?  ???

Perhaps randstory, being an investor in the company, knows more about their business  :)

This doesn't mean I won't make money trading the stock, at all. I know about technical analysis, and that's a powerful tool to make money in the stock market.

I could guess where the advance phase just started would stop, but that would be silly, only by luck I could sell at a short term top with this kind of technical setup (In fact I was lucky when I sold at $6.81, then had the opportunity to buy back lower today at $5.59).

If this uptrend is for real, this advance phase will take DESC to new highs above $7.50. If not, we'll know it if the stock closes below the ascending trendline, which tomorrow will stand at $5.35.

More about Breakaway gap:

http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/GapsandGapAnalysis.html

Hi, Dav:

   One questions about the tredline:

   Sometime, you use linear chart and sometimes use semi-log chart to draw trendline. Could you please tell us more?

   Thanks.

Hi, Dav:

   Perfect timing and re-entry point.

   Breakaway Gap usually not getting filled and the ascending trendline is right at it.

   Good trade.

I'm impressed! I just joined yesterday and your three calls for today are up! I'm in awe. ;D

David,

  I am new writing to the board...two things really i was curious how I know you received your donation, nothing told me you did.

Also I know you will do your update on DESC but as an amatuer trader I have become somewhat discouraged almost believing I have a curse that when I buy something it has to go down...Is this just a slight pullpack before an increase next week or should I prepare for more loss. thank you.

Look at the chart above and you can get an idea if the pullback is normal and within this stock's regular pattern. I wouldn't worry about it.

Hey David, thanks for taking the time and interest to explain. I have 4 stocks MSPD, DESC, OPWV, and PETS.
with an initial investment of 18K however that is about down to 14.5K so a little frustrated. The stocks are not evenly balanced( probably my first problem)  I own some real estate and i am doing well but i wanted to try out stocks. I have come to trust 3SOF and the credible information this site provides. So all of this is a huge learning experience. I try to follow your guidance and if i lose then at least I learn in the process. The major disadvantage i have is i am currently in Iraq with the US Army. and checking on stocks and even this site becomes challenging at times. I try not to get discourage and drive on. I will offer whatever help I can even if minimal for now.

I continue to hold DESC based on your update and agree with the " position trader"  philosophy.  I will monitor the trendline and stick with your recommendation. Again thank you...

Thanks for your post and good luck for you patriotmp, you deserve it ! As a rule, and thinking of your portfolio, you should not hold more than 20% in one single stock, so to be fully invested you should need to have at least 5 different stocks. Don't be discouraged, not by your losses or by your lack of time to follow the market. You just need to read my updates everyday (with the market closed) and follow them and I'm sure in some time you will be in the green again.

I don't own OPWV now and don't like the stock. I don't own PETS but I like it. The other two I own and update the trading plan everyday.

Yesterday I've made these comments about DESC:

QuoteDESC had a perfectly normal pullback. Volume wasn't enough for a single reversal day to hold. What I mean by this is that usually stocks need to make a short term low, advance, and then come back to retest that low, or hold a bit above it, so a short term bottom is definitely put in place.

That retest isn't needed when volume is very strong, this shows bulls are very eager to buy and won't give a second chance to buy at a low point.

That wasn't the case with DESC, so the stock is coming down to probably make a second touch at the ascending trendline which today will stand at $5.40.

The stock indeed came down to touch $5.40 yesterday, before closing at $5.50. Now DESC has a better chance of starting a short term advance phase that will possibly end just above $7.5, the high of the year.

But I need to keep that safety net on guard, and the trend must keep bullish, so if the stock is set to close below the ascending trendline, which today will stand at $5.43, I'll be forced to sell with a small loss, respecting RULE 13: Take Big Profits and Small Losses.

Bought some at $5.65.

I am quite suprised that this site has followers from Iraq.

Actually, from what patriotmp is holding, I am not worry about at all. All four stocks are in uptrend:

MSPD year low is around $1.20, tested its low twice and has higher lows since July. It should go higher from here. Need some time.

DESC should also go up from $5.50.

PETS long term trend is up and now is in base building. It should go up after consolidation (this may last few months).

OPWV also is in long term uptrend. The recent pull bck is very small one. Its last pull back took 3 months. So, patient is needed to hold the last two stocks and make profit from it.

Good luck.

   Shawfund,

     Hey thanks man...always good to hear reinforcing words from others!.  I like keeping my mind on other things and the stock market does that well...looking forward to increasing my participation to the board.

Patriot

Quote from: patriotmp on August 23, 2005, 02:49:27 PM

   Shawfund,

     Hey thanks man...always good to hear reinforcing words from others!.  I like keeping my mind on other things and the stock market does that well...looking forward to increasing my participation to the board.

Patriot

Patriot,

I',\m somewhat of a contrarian on DESC - just believing it will consolidate a bit lower (at which point I will but) since the AE stocks seem to be out of favor on the street.

Whether, I'm right or wrong about the entry point, I think it's a great long term holding.

I also want to express my thanks for the job your doing over there.
We're proud of every one of you - God Bless and stay safe.

Best Regards,

KCS

As said, DESC is now much better positioned to start an advance phase. We got a short term bottom in place, now the stock needs to climb from this level.

The trading plan is simple, DESC is near a medium term support and should react positively to it, if it doesn't I'll have to sell. The ascending trendline for today will be at $5.47.

The stock was up 5% yesterday on average volume after touching the ascending trendline, so I feel confident about the bullish outcome for DESC.

Hi, patriotmp:

You should be very happy. All of your holdings are doing very well today.

At the time of writing,

MSPD: as high as $1.92
DESC: as high as $6.15
PETS: as high as $10.65 near year high
OPWV: $17.80 near year high

Good investing. Hope you doing well in Iraq.

Glad to see server returning normal again.

DESC gained almost 10% today. 

Oil sector strong, TA indicators all points oversold. RSI 25, KD oversold, price is just above breakway gap.

All give strong buying signal.

Good trade.

I see the action on DESC yesterday as very bullish  :-*

Not only because of the white candle with volume above average, but specially because the advance held in the face of a market that generally turned south. I see relative strength in this alternative energy play, I'll definitely continue to hold DESC.

500-Mile Russian Oil Pipeline Project Selects Northern Power for Critical Systems

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050825/lath086.html?.v=22

Thanks for posting the news 422fwhp  :)

Taking into account the size of the business and the size of the company, the news isn't all that significant, but good news is always welcome.

Yesterday DESC had another white candle with volume above average, so everything is fine ... I expect the stock to break the 2005 high, which is $7.44, and that would trigger a technical objective of $7.44-$5.31 = $9.57, but it's still too early to think about that.

The long term can be a sum of many small short terms.

David

May You comment about insider selling last month?   :-\

Best,
Vova

David may wish to say more, but the 48,000 DESC shares sold is less than 1% of the over 5 million held by insiders. Meanwhile, institutional holdings are up over 6% (nearly a half-million shares).

Contrast that to Peabody Coal (BTU), insiders sold 25% of their holdings this month, and the chart seems to say why!

Quote from: voova99 on August 26, 2005, 07:40:25 AM
David

May You comment about insider selling last month?   :-\

Best,
Vova

I've read Peter Lynch's book «One Up on Wall Street» last week, an investment classic. One of his takes about insider trades is that insider buying is important, but insider selling isn't reliable.

Insiders can sell for a variety of reasons not related with the fundamentals of the company. I want to thank robt answer too, DESC is up 3% now  :)

Thank You David and Robt   8)

Desc is down over 4%. Anybody no what gives?

usedcasting:

First, the whole market is down today, and market sentiment can squash even a strong stock from rising.  Also, look at the chart, 3 days of white with increasing volume and up about $1 -- some people are probably deciding to take profits today.  Looks like normal behavior from here, no need to worry at this point.

hi,
i have been reading w.d. gann's 45 years on wall street and have been studying time and price.
i put together this chart on desc.
gann says: " when looking up dates for change in trend , consider whether the market has run from any high or low price 7 to 12 days , 18 to 21 days , 28 to 31 , 42 to 49 , 57 to 65, 85 to 92 , 112 to 120 , 150 to 157 or 175 to 185............." page 11, :) 45 years on wall street.
" stock market campaigns move in 3 to 4  sections or waves. never consider that the market has reached final tops when it makes its first section  in a move up because if it is a real bull market it will run at least 3 and possibly four sections............ page 9 45 years on wall street.
today looks like normal reaction with not too much volume......
i would love any one with more than my limited knowledge to comment on this chart and give constructive critique .
thanks
maxi

Used-
  Rest easy. Today is Friday and for many traders that is also called Profits Day. DESC has had a good run this week so you have people taking their profits off the table. If David is right and this market starts to slow ( and by the way there are a good number of us who agree with him) , you'll see this occuring  more frequently. When you see this happening in the future always check the volume. If it is below average or average as it is today, it's most assuredly profit taking. All the best.
  Irish

Thanks for your input, all.

I show my colors to easy, I know!

Have a great weekend.

You guys already said it all on DESC, great  :D

That analysis is interesting rickjust, I've never studied or applied Gann analysis on my technical analysis. I like to keep it simple, because with too many indicators and theories, we can justify any position we please, and that's not good. But I have my ears and eyes opened to new technical analysis theories, off course I'm learning like everybody else.

Perhaps I'll buy a book on the subject, I'm curious about the accuracy of the time and prices analysis. Can you suggest one book on the subject? Thank you !

Coming back to DESC, nightshade81, Irishman and I have similar thinking: after a three white soldiers pattern, the stock opened with a gap up on Friday and simply couldn't hold those gains. Profit taking kicked in and the stock fell 3%.

Nothing to worry about, I believe. It was nice that the stock closed above $6.20, you see, that could have been the «shoulder level» of a head and shoulders top, but it wasn't ... DESC is on an uptrend and that will probably continue as we'll see new 2005 highs above $7.44.

The ascending trendline for Monday's session will stand at $5.60, I'll continue holding DESC.

thanks for your reply,
i understand how one can get bogged down with too many indicators. i am very new to trading and i bought a system called "safety in the market" by david bowden from australia.
( i am from aust,)
he is a student of gann's . it is based on abc swing trading. he runs weekend seminars on time and price in australia but i am living in the states right now so haven't found anything here.
i know gann had a method of squaring time and price using the number 9 and i am reading jesse livermore's "how to trade in stocks" and he stresses the importance of finding the pivitol point of a stock  , low or high related to time and price.
i will post an article i found on the safety in the market website which deals with time and price on the stock talking thread. i am reading "45 years on wall street" wd gann ( tough going!)
for now i am having fun learning from you and others on your superb site hope to pay full years membership buy end of sept.
as for desc , looks like another down day mon. and then a resumption of upward climb testing 7.44.
thanks, happy trading
maxi

Up +4% PM

Thanks rickjust, actually one of our first registered users and the first man who donated something to this website is an Australian too, it's aussietrader  :D

I find it hard to believe that Livermore talks about Gann in his book «How to Trade Stocks», but if you say so ... I've read «Reminiscences of a Stock Operator» about 5 times and didn't see anything about that theme, I believe.

Considering DESC, me too, I'm starting to get a bit puzzled by this persistent insider selling. Do they know something we don't or are they selling just to meet personal financial needs? It's not just one person, but several insiders selling, not unloading a lot of stock, but continuously selling ...

I have a 13% profit and feeling unease. Plans are important, but flexibility to adapt is even more important. There are several degrees of indiscipline, some more serious than others, and being human, I know I'll break some rules and change some plans ...

Let's take RULE 13: Take big profits and small losses.

1) It's very serious and damaging to my account not to take small losses and to let a loss grow.
2) I should take big profits, but sometimes I just have to accept what the market is willing to give. I can't be ashamed of taking small profits when that's all there is to take.

So I'll take my small profit tomorrow on DESC.

<<So I'll take my small profit tomorrow on DESC.>>

Couldn't have come at a better time either...Cramer just pumped it tonight.

Jody

hi david,
i think you missunderstood me. i didn't mean that livermore mentioned gann in his book ,but, having said that i think i did read somwhere that gann lent him money to get trading again when he was bankrupt. it is not too far fetched considering back in the early twentieth century wall street was a much smaller place and the high flyers would have known eachother. but this is a desc thread , and i was hoping desc would have a decisive down day today rather than the inside day that it had . but i guess i will wait another day.
thanks
maxi

Quote from: David Randolph on August 29, 2005, 07:52:32 PM


Considering DESC, me too, I'm starting to get a bit puzzled by this persistent insider selling. Do they know something we don't or are they selling just to meet personal financial needs? It's not just one person, but several insiders selling, not unloading a lot of stock, but continuously selling ...

178,000 shares is 3.3% of the insider holdings, which I agree is significant. However, 100,000 of those shares is represented by a single sale of shares by one of the directors, James Ozanne. This same party sold 94,000 shares exactly a year ago, in August 04, which leads me to believe that this sale is probably not related to the company's current prospects. 

This leaves 78,000 shares traded by other insiders, just a couple of percent of the shares held, which I don't find worrisome (though I may feel differently in retrospect if the company's fortunes fall!)

While I plan to take some profit today, I intend to keep at least half of my DESC holding and see where it might take me.

As for Cramer, well, I don't blame him for the lemmings, daytraders and shorts who try to exploit his picks; the foundation for most of his picks remains sound, and many of them do well, once all the smoke clears.

EDIT: A couple of people on other message boards voiced their opinions that DESC is a "Gulf play." The company's going business provides high-demand energy systems for facilities that are unable to connect to the energy grid, usually due to their remote location.

Essential services in the Gulf will need to be reliably powered, so this does make some sense. Today's performance was stellar, particularly in contrast to the market's general performance (or, for that matter, to the rest of my portfolio!).

Gulf contracts my never materialize, but the belief that they may should power DESC upward for now. And should a Gulf contract be announced any time soon, DESC will likely explode.

I will continue to hold, I think others should keep a close watch.

Thompson says 30% of today's action was institutional (it's 22% for the month).

(http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/fcgi-bin/fhdcoverage?t=DESC&d=20050829)

Here's a chart (hope this works!) DESC still looks goodto me!

Let me applaud you robt, you've made good research on DESC and were paid for it  :D

I've made the mistake of changing my initial trading plan without a very strong motive to do so. I wasn't sufficiently informed about the insider selling on DESC to take that attitude.

I've learned my lesson and paid for it, so everything is fine.

Good luck for your investments robt, keep those posts coming, I'm enjoying them a lot, in fact, let me put your rating up a bit, you deserve it  :D

Applauded by DR???

Where's the smilie that's all pink from blushing?  ???

this really took me by suprise today.
given my previous post about stocks moving in 3 to four sections before a change in trend i think you would agree that this is well on it's way into the fourth section.
notice each section has increased in it's range up.
this should break 7.44 and no resistance that i can see from here .
good luck evryone
maxi

I'm disappointed in the weakness today, maybe the insider selling is tripping it up, though I don't think it's an issue, the market may.

Protecting profits selling anothre half of my position, still in it should we make that target.

edit: at the end of the day, a tiny drop, and everything good about the chart stays intact (to my untrained eyes), 7.44 target in sight, maybe by weekend?

Still holding, but not much happening. Price has been flat, volume has increased a little bit in the last week, indicators still look positive.

Also still holding, still good as I bought at 5.95.

I'd like to see a bit more action though.

Could it be related to the lower prices on oil?

I'm keeping it for the long term.

Coverage initiated

Guess you'll see some action today!

DESC Distributed Energy started with a Buy at First Albany; tgt $9

First Albany initiates DESC with a Buy and $9 tgt. Firm says the co has a clear path to cash flow breakeven and profitability, and represents a unique and "technology neutral" way to leverage the proliferation of the distributed generation market, while participating in the growth of onsite industrial hydrogen generation in the near term, with meaningful longer-term opportunities in additional hydrogen technology evolution over time.

No link for this yet, though, but look at premarket -- up .40

I think we can declare the target reached, closed @ 7.42, just a few cents below the day's high of 7.49.

Will the inevitable pullback come at open tomorrow? Given the strong close, and continuing strong indicators, it seem not -- but I'll be watching.

Since I'm a longtime holder of DESC, I won't be exiting entirely in any case. When DESC became a 3SOF, I tripled my position. Though I've reduced that by degrees, I'm still at 150% of my usual position and, for now, I'll stay there.

Why no more talk about DESC?  Long-term prospects are more than bright for them.  Anyhow, as I hold it long-term, I try to analyze the chart on a day to day basis and develop my skill at sensing the next move.  I thought that breakaway gap on raised guidance would hold, and - you know what?  It never closed.  I'm no expert on gaps but I'm learning.  What about that gap between 9/7 and 9/8.  Why did it fill?  Was it not a breakaway gap.  Today's action looked like a hammer on support.  What do you think?

I've been meaning to update, but not much in the way of good news. The retracement seems to be running out of steam, but it may take news to propel the stock upward.

Trust me, Trader

David like that company and that sector much!   :)
We need only right time to get in.
There is a lot of potential in DG (disributed generation) market!

Best,
Vova

circa 7.49? That would project to +/- 3.33  :'(, were the price would be supported by a  line that dates back to September 2004, in blue in the chart).

For what it's worth, Cramer recently gave DESC a push in his "lightning round." This often brings in a lot of daytraders going after a cramer pop, often followed by shorts, but I think anything that brings more attention to desc could be the catalyst it needs to break out.

And it's a BREAKOUT!!!

One of the charts below shows the very strong action near the close, looks like news is anticipated. Nevertheless, I took profits, selling about a third of my holdings before the black candle near day's end (I was holding about twice as much DESC as usual, so I'm still a bit DESC-heavy). Looks like it will continue tomorrow.

DESC took a severe beating following the "breakout." Interesting chart shows a bearish engulfing candle, a further dive, and then another engulfing candle, this one to the bulls' advantage.

Today, thestreet.com, the financial site part-owned by James Cramer, added DESC to its portfolio of "Stocks under $10." Since Cramer recently said nice things about DESC in his "lightning round," it may be his next step to do a full endorsement of DESC on TV, radio, or in his column.

If that does happen, I will further reduce the number of shares I'm holding. A large crew of shorts work the market by trading off "the Cramer effect," which can bring short-term pain to longs.

However the current chart looks quite bullish, especially if the steeper trendline holds.  Even if it doesn't, the long term ascending trendline should do, and this line has been validated several times (see year plus chart). It looks like we are in the closing stages of an ascending triangle pattern, which, given volume, could follow through to the upside, giving a target of $9.50-9.80.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some upward movement to the resistance at $7.50 again in the coming days.  And perhaps Cramer's mutterings are what's needeed to break to the upside??  Let's hope the curse of Cramer doesn't come into effect once again >:D

Anyway, here's the chart:

You are so right, in fact 7.50 resistance is history, as is all resistance at an all-time high of 8.06 at close.

I felt compelled to take profits today. I'm now at half my customary hold for DESC, and will overload again if there's a significant pullback.

Gutted >:D

Can you believe it??  I was so caught up with HYRF and HOM this morning that I totally forgot to check DESC for the first few hours, only to see it going crazy!  and after posting my plan last night too!!

So of course spent the day waiting for the pull-back that never came to get in and ride with it, and here we are, any kind of resistance is dust and we are over $8!! Unbelievable

Good job robt, I am right with you on this one, hoping we get a little pull-back to get back in on.

Man, what a messy day ::)

Yesterday was a very strange day for DESC. Yes the chart has been looking good, Cramer and thestreet.com have brought much-needed attention to this relatively unknown stock.

But there was that engulfing candle (as the chart labels it, "bearish harami"). The software for some reason does not see the bullish engulfment that followed. (?)

Like the two engulfing candles, all movement today was pretty much symmetrical, see-sawing in a pattern that seemed randomly variable, yet always in balance between bulls and bears, and we ended with a doji.

Yet after hours and pre-market saw the stock go up, rather straightforwardly -- notice also that yesterday's doji also started with a gap UP at a new high of 8.10. It closed slightly lower, after achieving a new 52 week high of 8.37, at 8.06, just 3 cents below the previous high, just achieved two days ago.

DESC has kept its gains, a very good sign. It wants to go up, but something held it back in market hours yesterday. Perhaps long daytraders versus shorts, or intraday swing traders, playing "momo" games, or maybe it's the MMs, but whatever it is, I think it's temporary.

I think it's "momo" players coming in for a quick trade and out, but the strength DESC has shown should now attract more long-termers, and even seduce some of the "momentum" crowd into playing this one for a longer term.

Most longs are aching for desc to release some positive news, which in these conditions would send the stock soaring. But I know this company -- they do not manipulate the share price with PR.

Having taken profits Wednesday, I would welcome an opportunity at "free shares" should the share-price dive. But I expect a positive day, and may buy back in at a higher level tp benefit.

Great post robt,

I'd appplaud if I could, and will do as soon as I'm out of the newbie woods Only a couple more posts and I'll be there. :)

I 'm a little happier as I managed to buy in on the pull-back a couple of days ago around $7.80, so provided we hold above $8 while the market figures out where this one wants to go, I will be happy.  I  expect that you are right about day traders and such playing with the stock - just see yesterdays late afternoon dive, but hopefully this should settle in the next few days, and we will start to see trading ranges that represent solid (hopefully upward) movements.  Had a good run on DESC last month when it was in 3SOF, and a little disappointed with myself that I sold out below $7.  But each trade is a new trade, the market never looks back and neither should we.

Will hold for my target of between $9.50 and $10 and see what it looks like it will be doing there.

Good trading robt, I always enjoy your posts  ;)

Thanks for the kind words. I have a warm feeling for anyone smart enough to see the value in DESC. In the AE sector, they are the "best of breed." Non-dilutive, with a functioning business on its way to profit, and in the two years I've traded DESC, I've always felt they gave high priority to the well-being of shareholders.

While there was more daytrading today, it was much more clearly a bull day. The chart now shows a clearly established trend toward previously uncharted highs.

Nice. ;)

Just wanted to post the latest chart for trading monday.  Have a good weekend all

Today, DESC made another new high, as anticipated. Looked strong all day, I expect continuation tomorrow.

I don't understand- why would I subscribe to 3sof if I may see
the open trades anyway for free?????????

Best,
Vova

Indeed, robt, another solid day breaking new ground  ;D

All seems to be good, though we may want to keep a close eye on it as the RSI heads over 70, which could signal it topping out in the short term - bu then again, it has held very high RSI values previously, so I won't reconsider my position unless we see a clear pullback in the making.

As for your post Vova, don't forget that 3SOF has just changed over to a subscription based model.  What you can see are threads on trades that David has already closed out on.  While many of us continue to follow these, as many of them represent excellent fundamental stories, and have more gains to be made, what you do not have access to are David and Frederick's new picks, the stocks that they believe to be "on fire" right now.  For posts related to those, wyou will have to wait until they have closed out of their position.

Just a word to note though, while I haven't been here too long, what I have come to realise is that this is a very strong trading COMMUNITY, and we are happy to share our knowledge and analysis with each other, and if this helps others out, so much the better, but it is a community, which represents both give and take.

All the members here have clearly seen the value in supporting David and Frederick in their endeavour, and no doubt all of us (I hope ;) ) have seen many times more than our subscriptions/donations in returns from their picks and analysis.  I for one am happy to support them with my subscription, because what I am doing is supporting our entire community here, allowing David and Frederick to continue to provide this incredible resource, and from now on devote more of their time to it.  I will happily admit that right now I only have 1 3SOF pick in my portfolio (and that has made me over 300%  :o) but virtually ALL of my trades over the last couple of months have come from threads on this site - either from the 3SOF picks or from other members' analysis.  This would not have been possible without them.  In addition, I have learned so much about trading and the markets since I have been a member, and while I did not post much at first, my increasing confidence and willingness to contribute has led me to feel a part of this community.

If you want to be a part of the 3SOF community, benefit from all of the latest trades, and interact with other traders who are really willing to contribute ideas together, I would strongly recommend subscribing.  It is not the case now, but as things evolve with the site, it will become more evident who the community members are and who the leechers are, and I guaranteee you that as a subscribed member you will gain full feedback from the rest of the community, and that is worth so much more than just a few "stocks on fire"  (though the stocks on fire are pretty good too).

Anyway, enough of my rant, I hope that answered you (and anyone elses) questions about what the point of subscribing is ;D

The Scotsman

I didn't expect the feedback like that ,Scotsman !  :o

It was the pleasure to read your post.

It's indeed very good place with lot of experienced traders online,
and I want to thank David for interesting posts and great profit
that I did on HOM .  ;D

Hope to be among subscribers in near future,
good luck and trading on DESC

Best,
Vova

ST, you called. A retracement, giving back the last two days, and likely to do some gap-filling tomorrow.

I may lighten my position tomorrow AM, but will look to add more at the low.

Decided not to lighten up. In the past, DESC sell-offs often have ended in the morning hours, with major gains late in the trading session. This AM, it dived to 7.80 but is now narrowing its loss. I still believe it is headed for new gighs, so I increased my holdings by a third.

We'll see.

Let's hope so,

never nice to see 10% wiped off in a day and a bit, but I am with you, and will hold for today.  I will sell if it breaks support at $7.50.

The intraday was interesting, in that it traded green at several points, the last being at 3 pm, before an orderly exit by what I assume to be daytraders.

Since this is an energy stock, it's vulnerable to the selloff across the sector. But as an AE company headed toward profitability, DESC is unique, and I trust the market to recognize that, in the long run.

The daytraders aren't likely to be back tomorrow, unless as shorts, but I don't think a short strategy is an attractive one here.

I agree, 7.50 support is important, I will reduce my hold to minimal shares if it breaks.

My beloved DESC! It is cursed by the horrid curse of the "Three Identical Crows!"

"The market is either approaching a top or has
been at a high level for some time. A decisive trend move
to the downside is made with a long black day. The next
two days are accompanied by further erosion in prices
caused by much selling and profit taking. This type of price
action has to take its toll on the bullish mentality."

I was prepared to pull the trigger at 7.50, as I promised. But my fingers froze! Then at that moment, I realized the truth....

I have fallen in love with a stock!

I know it is a forbidden love! But I cannot resist its pull!!!

Actually, what happened was, I was distracted by the action in KFX today, and whille I should have been selling DESC, I was loading up more KFX.

By the time I noticed what had happened in DESC, it had risen back above 7.50. It dropped again, but ultimately closed at 7.45. I decided not to take a loss over the matter of 5 cents. Not yet anyway.

I was no doubt influenced by KFX's 8% gain today. It, too, is an energy stock that has been stung by the energy sell-off, but it suddenly shot up on good news, and the same could happen with DESC at any time.

And now, a grim picture of my beloved:

indeed, I saw this one coming, and sold out at around 7.67.

I can't believe that I ended up selling out for a loss!!  Three days ago, this was the only positive stock in my bag, and I was a happy camper!  not so today, other big sell offs also hurt me bad, and I saw several breaks of key support.  Sold on this one and OMNI, which was for a MUCH bigger loss!!.

Here's hoping DESC will find support at the old ascending trendline - is a bit lowere, but if it holds there, it may be a buy again  :-[

oh well, just gotta move on...

I congratulate you on your discipline; I hope you can congratulate me as well, as it turns out DESC did not fail me.

Today's meager volume suddenly exploded at around 2:30 (5 minute volume @ 2:15 - 700; 5 minute volume @ 2:25 - 79,000), and the subsequent hod was 7.80.

It closed at 7.70. Even better, the after-hours high was 8.20!

The three identical crows formation may still have influence to be felt, but a gap-up and continued rally seems to be a near term likelihood.

There's been no news out, and I understand DESC received a mention on Cramer's radio show, so shorts may be out in force on Tues., in which case I will need to act fast to preserve the gains. (In fact, would have taken the AH 8.20 if I had been watching the tape today.)

Addendum: On Cramer's radio show, guest William Gabrielski, who recently added DESC to TheStreet.com's "under $10" portfolio, predicted a good quarter. Cramer responded that DESC is "rockin'"

Good for you robt, as I said.

Absolutely nothing was broken, just overbought, maybe cramer nudged it on its way for a tumble, and yesterdays market panic didn't help either.  The three crows got me scared and I pushed the button because I didn't want to see too much red.  In hindsight, I did not stick to my gameplan, which was to hold above the ascending trendline.

When you look at the chart, it retraced perfectly, and I saw it today, but already had put money in other picks from this morning.  But you're right.  this one was one to ride out, as DESC is definitely bullish short and long term.

Maybe I'll get another chance, but I doubt at this level.  Good luck robt, I gotta go work on my non-intuitive trigger finger.   ;D

Don't forget the Cramer factor. Immediate gains after a Cramer pick have a way of disappearing. Long-term holders hate seeing their stocks picked for this reason.

This could be a very easy swing trade for a while. load - unload - load - unload...you know the drill...

not a truer word said robt,

and I hope for your sake you got out of DESC first thing this morning.  Today's action was nasty :P  It broke the trendline on the log chart, but the linear chart sill shows a valid trendline.  However, todays red candlestick was a big one, and gives us a bearish engulfing pattern, which doesn't really add to the situation.  I know that DESC is in a much better position than other AE plays, but I just get a bit concerned that it could go the same way as BCON and CPST, but managed to hold its own longer.

I'd be very careful with DESC for now, and wai to see if it corrects this downtrend anytime soon  :-\

I had a stop on about half my shares @ 7.60, so the damage is not too great if DESC comes back as I expect it to. We'll see, I guess...

After trading sideways a few days, DESC made an aggressive move up today, and is now just a little above my exit price.

AE is still not in fashion, but I still feel that news could drive DESC way up. Considering a small position here, especially if there's a sell-off in the AM.

robt,

I just saw this this afternoon as well - dunno if I'm up for taking another ride with DESC.  However, at least the last few days of sideways trading has created a solid base to move from.  Also things just suddenly picked up in the afternoon - was there anything out??  rumours???

Might have a little fish around

Very nice move today  :D

Big block traded right at closing time.

Good interest: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=DESC

Yahoo message-board full of happy DESC-owners, hoping for news soon.  ;)

Looking nice on StockTA: http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=DESC&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

I'm a happy camper!

;D

A heads up to all interested - any bets on whether it will be positive or negatively revieved???

Distributed Energy Systems Schedules Conference Call To Discuss Third Quarter Results

WALLINGFORD, Conn., Oct. 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (Nasdaq: DESC - News) announced that it will release its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2005 on Monday, November 7, 2005. The company will also host a conference call on the day of the release at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
ADVERTISEMENT

Individuals wishing to participate in the conference call should dial (866) 578-5801 or for international calls (617) 213-8058. The call will also be broadcast live over the Internet, and can be accessed by all interested parties at www.vcall.com or through the investors' section of the Distributed Energy Systems website at www.distributed-energy.com.

My science on fuel cells is limited (saw a PBS documentary once), but my understanding is that the biggest obstacle to developing a fuel cell car is how to obtain the hydrogen.  This is an article about an Israeli company that has developed a practical fuel cell car:  I believe this development shows that fuel cell technology can be practical:  The market has noticed.  8)

http://www.isracast.com/tech_news/231005_tech.htm

THE CAR THAT MAKES ITS OWN FUEL
A unique system that can produce Hydrogen inside a car using common metals such as Magnesium and Aluminum was developed by an Israeli company. The system solves all of the obstacles associated with the manufacturing, transporting and storing of hydrogen to be used in cars. When it becomes commercial in a few years time, the system will be incorporated into cars that will cost about the same as existing conventional cars to run, and will be completely emission free.


Illustration photo – the car in this image is not related to the story. Actual pictures of Engineuity's system are classified at this stage.
(Image credit: Ford)

As President Bush urges Americans to cut back on the use of oil in wake of the recent surge in prices, more and more people are looking for more viable alternatives to the use of petroleum as the main fuel for the automotive industry. IsraCast recently covered the idea developed at the Weizmann Institute to use pure Zinc to produce Hydrogen using solar power. Now, a different solution has been developed by an Israeli company called Engineuity. Amnon Yogev, one of the two founders of Engineuity, and a retired Professor of the Weizmann Institute, suggested a method for producing a continuous flow of Hydrogen and steam under full pressure inside a car. This method could also be used for producing hydrogen for fuel cells and other applications requiring hydrogen and/or steam.

The Hydrogen car Engineuity is working on will use metals such as Magnesium or Aluminum which will come in the form of a long coil. The gas tank in conventional vehicles will be replaced by a device called a Metal-Steam combustor that will separate Hydrogen out of heated water. The basic idea behind the technology is relatively simple: the tip of the metal coil is inserted into the Metal-Steam combustor together with water where it will be heated to very high temperatures. The metal atoms will bond to the Oxygen from the water, creating metal oxide. As a result, the Hydrogen molecules are free, and will be sent into the engine alongside the steam.
The solid waste product of the process, in the form of metal oxide, will later be collected in the fuel station and recycled for further use by the metal industry.

Refuelling the car based on this technology will also be remarkably simple. The vehicle will contain a mechanism for rolling the metal wire into a coil during the process of fuelling and the spent metal oxide, which was produced in the previous phase, will be collected from the car by vacuum suction.



Click to enlarge

Beside the obvious advantages of the system, such as the inexpensive and abundant fuel, the production of Hydrogen on-the-go and the zero emission engine, the system is also more efficient than other Hydrogen solutions. The main reason for this is the improved usage of heat (steam) inside the system that brings that overall performance level of the vehicle to that of a conventional car. In an interview, Professor Yogev told IsraCast that a car based on Engineuity's system will be able to travel about the same distance between refueling as an equivalent conventional car. The only minor drawback, which also limits the choice of possible metal fuel sources, is the weight of the coil. In order for the Hydrogen car to be able to travel as far as a conventional car it needs a metal coil three-times heavier than an equivalent petrol tank. Although this sound like a lot in most cars this will add up to about 100kg (220 pounds) and should not affect the performance of the car.

Engineuity is currently in the advanced stages of the incubator program of the Chief Scientist in Israel, and is seeking investors that will allow it to develop a full scale prototype. Given the proper investment the company should be able to develop the prototype in about three years. The move to Hydrogen based cars using Engineuity's technology will require only relatively minor changes from the car manufacturer's point of view. Since the modified engine can be produced using existing production lines, removing the need for investment in new infrastructures (the cost of which is estimated at billions of dollars), the new Hydrogen cars would not be more expensive. Although Engineuity's Hydrogen car will not be very different from existing conventional cars, the company is not currently planning an upgrade kit for existing cars but is concentrating on building a system that will be incorporated into new car models.

Possibly the most appealing aspect of the system is the running cost. According to Yogev, the overall running cost of the system should be equal to that of conventional cars today. Given the expected surge in oil prices in the near future Engineuity's Hydrogen car could not come too soon. [/b]

Hi, logocovet.

I think it's more a problem of storage and transportation/distribution that is the problem
with that kind of fuel.

Here is the danish version of storage of the fuel:

http://www.amminex.com/index.htm

The danish government is going to weep if people no longer buys gasoline. 1 (That is ONE) liter of gasoline costs here DKK 10,- This comes out to $US 1.6205 pr. liter... ::) Been that way for years...
Hurray for taxation...pays (amongst other things) for the good roadsystem that we can't afford to drive on...
But everything is taxable, so I trust they'll come up with something.


When I cheer higher oilprices, it's because that will speed up the development of alternative energyforms.

Thanks Cumulina,

I do recall something in the documentary about the dificulties of storing hydrogen.  I believe that the alternative energy movement is much bigger in Europe than it is in the US.  (What can U exect from a president who doesn't believe in global warming or evolution)  ???

But oddly enough, Bush is very pro fuel cell technology, although for the wrong reasons.  Bush is unwilling to introduce strictly fuel efficiency/emission standards b/c of his buddies in the oil industry.  Instead he supports "totally clean" energy like fuel cells knowing that they are not a practical reality yet.  It is his red herring.  (Solar is very small in the US).  I guess, in an odd way, this puts Bush in the alternative energy movement.

Back to DESC.  I've heard many times said that DESC is considered best of breed.  Can anyone explain why DESC is different or better than the other alternative energy companies ?(FCEL, PLUG, Ballard, ENER, etc).  Thanks.

DESC deserves a fresh analysis...May move up next week... :)

ok I'll give you my thoughts on DESC, as it is one that I have followed for a little while, and have traded a couple times - once for a good profit, and once for a loss, after seeing a big profit on the last run-up.

DESC is still clearly in a bullish trend - one look at the chart tells you that, rising from the low 3s to over $8 where it now stands since June, within that trend, we have seen 2 clear ascending trendlines - the initial trendline (TL1) that lasted until mid-august, was replaced by a steeper one (TL2) that held until early October, when DESC pu in its recent high of 8.88.

Unfortunately, this trendline couldn't hold (and I got burned on it) - after printing this high, it pulled back below this trendline and key support at 7.50.  However, TL1 did hold and continues to do so - in fact, the recent move since rebounding off TL1 has ranged between it and TL2, now upper resistance.

Having consolidated this week aroound 8.00, DESC put in a nice solid marobozu on Friday, suggesting it wants to go higher.  I'm not sure TL2 will break though, and it may climb up the underside of it until it pushes recent highs at 8.88.  A word of caution though, what we may have developing is an anscending or symmetric triangle, as it pushes towards new highs - I would look for it to rebound back to TL1 at some point in the near future before breaking 8.88.  The chart is very bullish though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that eventual breakout, but I think there will be better entry points than buying in on Monday morning.  If we do indeed have an ascending triangle forming, it would give a technical breakout target of around 12.30, which would be veery nice ;D

As many have said on this thread, DESC is considered "best in breed".  Simply comapring its chart with other AE plays such as CPST and BCON, demonstrates why this is so - when the AE bubble burst in September, and these stocks took a tumble back to their starting points, DESC just kept on going.  I see that as a very good sign, and an indication of higher prices to come.  DESC should eb at least a $10 stock by Christmas, at least in my opinion.

Any other thoughts are most welcome.

The Scotsman

So quiet here - if nobody else will, then I shall be happy to post it:

:o


Distributed Energy Reports Record Revenues of $12.3 Million, Sharply Reduced Net Loss in 3rd Quarter

November 07, 2005 08:01:52 (ET)


WALLINGFORD, Conn., Nov 07, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (DESC, Trade) reported today that revenues rose to a record $12.3 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared with $4.8 million in the same period one year ago. The company sharply reduced its third quarter net loss to $3,587,000, or $0.10 per share, from $5,780,000, or $0.16 per share, during the same period in 2004.

Third-quarter results primarily reflect strong performance at Northern Power Systems, where revenue growth derived largely from power installations for building and industrial applications. In addition, due to sufficient and positive warranty experience, Proton Energy Systems recognized $1.6 million in previously deferred revenue during the quarter from the sale of the mid-sized HOGEN(R) S Series hydrogen generators.

Through nine months of 2005, Distributed Energy Systems had revenue of $33.9 million, and a net loss of $12.8 million, or $0.36 per share. One year ago, the company reported nine-month revenue of $11.1 million, and a net loss of $18.4 million, or $0.52 per share.

Northern Power and Proton Energy merged to form Distributed Energy Systems in late 2003. The combined company provides industrial and commercial markets with products and services offering greater control over the supply and cost of power, as well as increased efficiency and reliability.

"We made solid progress in the third quarter toward every one of our objectives," said Walter W. (Chip) Schroeder, president of Distributed Energy Systems. "Revenues at Northern Power continue to grow, reflecting the strong position of our engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) business in the remote and on-grid distributed power segments. Northern's current year-to- date revenues are more than 250% above the comparable period one year ago." He also noted successful progress on signing long-term contracts for Northern Power's PowerAdvantage(TM) operations and maintenance program for distributed generation facilities.

Mr. Schroeder commented on Proton Energy as follows: "There was notable progress at Proton, where we began to see early shipment and order progress from distributor agreements we signed with Airgas, Praxair and Linde earlier in the year."

"These distribution partners tell us that order flow is a function of not only the compelling value of Proton products, but also because of the volatile condition of today's hydrogen supply market," Mr. Schroeder continued. "End users are taking a fresh look at onsite hydrogen generation as an alternative to truck-delivered supplies, and they like the idea of gaining more control over their hydrogen resources."

Mr. Schroeder noted the increased demand and the "value proposition" of the use of onsite hydrogen for electric generator cooling, where the savings to the plant owner typically result in a payback of less than a year. He pointed out that this enables Proton to sell its large HOGEN H Series systems at better margins and into this and other markets, where the company is seeing promising product line acceptance.

"On the financial front," Mr. Schroeder stated, "we moved closer to breakeven," emphasizing the sharp reduction in the third quarter's net loss. "This is our best bottom line since the merger of Northern Power and Proton Energy," he said, "and our improved results also demonstrate the positive effects of remaining focused on the goal of becoming profitable within our existing capital resources."

DESC reported that the company's gross margins were positive for the fourth consecutive quarter. In addition, cash and marketable securities as of September 30, 2005, were $42.7 million compared with $45.8 million as of June 30, 2005. The change primarily reflects the net loss for the quarter, with working capital requirements remaining essentially unchanged. The company defines working capital as current assets minus current liabilities excluding cash and marketable securities.

3rd Quarter Highlights:

Distributed Energy Systems noted several major developments since the regular August 5th investor conference call, including:


-- An agreement with Linde Gas to distribute Proton's HOGEN hydrogen 
       generators in the United States, Mexico and the Caribbean. 
    -- A $2.05 million contract for Northern Power to design and install 
       independent remote power systems for three offshore natural gas 
       drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico for Construcciones Mecanicas 
       Monclova S.A. de C.V. 
    -- A contract for Northern Power to provide two TelePrime(TM) power 
       systems for the Sakhalin-II Pipeline project on Russia's Sakhalin 
       Island. The contract valued at $1.5 million, brings Northern Power's 
       total contractual involvement in Sakhalin oil and gas development 
       projects to more than $6 million. 
    -- Announced the promotion of Darren Jamison to president of the Northern 
       Power Systems subsidiary. 
    -- The purchase by Northern Power of a $1.5 million, 110,000 square-foot 
       manufacturing and engineering facility in Barre, VT, to improve 
       production efficiencies. 
    -- An increase in original contract award from the Anchorage-based Alaska 
       Village Electric Cooperative for Northern Power to install three 
       additional NorthWind 100(R) wind turbines, including remote monitoring 
       and controls valued at $1.8 million. 
    -- Announced a multi-million dollar agreement to provide PowerAdvantage 
       O&M service to former DTE Energy distributed generation customers. 
    Outlook: 
"Developments such as these -- together with the momentum from customers who see the need to think smarter and differently about their electric power priorities -- continue to bolster our optimism," Mr. Schroeder concluded. "We are in the right business at the right time, now and for the foreseeable future, and we believe our operational improvements should enable us to report continuing progress over the next several quarters."

Its now in the double figures !! :o Cramers LIKES it !! It has exposure to solar enery and it will be profitable before than it is expected !! Thats tremendoues growth !! ;D

Man this price action is in a nice lookin bullish uptrend. Would have been great for a longer term trade.

DESC's price action has 2 ascending triangles.

-Triangle 1 is in the works as we speak with a technical target 9.93

-Triangle 2 just made its confirmation today that it is indeed an ascending triangle, just barley making a breakout to close today at 8.94 above the prior peak at 8.88. Guess we will see tomorrow if this is a confirmed breakout. Target for the break of Triangle 2 is 11.18

Volume needs to begin increasing for the uptrend to continue, It has been decreasing since this uptrend began. Usually when the volume decreases as price action continues to increase, it is a sign that the uptrend is losing interest and running out of steam. And all uptrends eventually run out of steam sad enough  :'( . But those are some beautiful twin triangles on DESC's chart. An increase in volume is going to be key in the continuation of this trend.

Good luck to everyone holding.

-fousc

But trading at 9.90 AH - if it holds that it should be crazy tomorrow!!!

Hey guys, i think we missed something here .... the CUP with HANDLE has formed this should have been a great play since the beginning of the breakout.. i just noticed that today ???  Anyway. i think desc will fly tomorrow :)

Great charts, great action!  :D

Something that might "keep the kettle boiling" might be this conference:

NYSSA Presents 3rd Annual Alternative Energy Industry Conference
- BusinessWire

NEW YORK, Nov 02, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) will present the 3rd Annual Alternative Energy Industry Conference on November 29, 2005.

The total clean-energy market is predicted to grow to $92 billion by 2013, about seven times its current size of $13 billion. Is now the time to invest? Don't miss this opportunity to meet the CEOs, CFOs, and other senior executives from public companies that range from the world leaders in fuel cell technology to up-and-coming players in the areas of solar and geothermal power.

The following companies are presenting:

American Superconductor Corporation ; Ballard Power Systems ; DayStar Technologies, Inc. ; Distributed Energy Systems Corp. ; Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. ; FuelCell Energy, Inc. ; Intermagnetics ; MTI (Mechanical Technology, Inc.) ; Plug Power Inc. ; SatCon Technology Corporation ; and U.S. Geothermal, Inc. .

The conference will be held on November 29, 2005, 8:00 a.m. to 5:10 p.m., at the Harvard Club, 27 West 44th Street, New York, NY. Early registration by November 8, $195 NYSSA members, $295 nonmembers. Prices $70 higher after November 8. Registration deadline is November 22. No charge for press with credentials. A complete agenda is available at http://www.nyssa.org/Template.cfm?Section=calendar&template=/ ContentManagement/ContentDisplay.cfm&ContentID=6065


I think we might have to keep an eye on all those companys!  :o

Surely they're not going there to have a beer and a chat...Could they save something special to show?
I have been keeping a bit of an eye on MKTY, it has been behaving strangely, and have had nice insider-buys...Hmmm...

Looking forward to todays action on DESC ... And VERY much also ENER, they have C/C today.  ;)

Has everyone seen how many AE commercials there are on TV now?  Every car and oil company has a comercial with green grass and blue skys and a bunch of pastel colors.  Even ADM is producing bio fuel. 

The American car companies have especially jumped on the wagon since they need to change their image from SUV's to hybrid, environmentally friendly cars.    ALot of Ford and GM commecials.

The talking heads have been talking about AE too.  Cramer just recommended DESC  on Friday:

"The "best little alternative energy company you have never herd of ," is Distributed Energy Systems (DESC) according to Cramer. Two big trends are helping this company:

   1. Distributed power
   2. On-site hydrogen power generation

Hurricanes have pushed people toward a reliable source of power. Also economics are making on-site hydrogen power systems more desirable. The company also has exposure to solar and wind power.
The economics of the company Cramer mentioned were a better than expected revenu of $12.3 million vs. expected $9 million. 2% better than expected gross margin also.
Cramer said, "This is not going to be the last good quarter. It is the first great one!"

I think it is the first time he "infomercialed" a stock under $10.  DESC was originally on his under $10 portfolio. 

Good luck all!  :o

I firmly believe DESC will continue pushing higher in the coming days & weeks.. there is no doubt about that..just look on the chart  ;)

DESC

DESC is down close to it's 50 DMA on lower volume over the past few weeks.
It has filled the Nov. 7 Gap

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/DESC1.png)

The previous two times this stock has touched the 50 DMA it has turned and I see no fundamental reason to believe it will not make the bounce again

The 50MA didn't provide the support hoped for, but tomorrow may well be a reversal opportunity ::)

Nice doji star reversal made today touching down on the top of a support zone.  I think tomorrow could be a positive day, just watch for that support level that it just broke through, may well provide resitance now.

You are all probably wondering why DESC broke the 50 day moving average. If you take a look at the thread I started you will understand why: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3732.msg38534#msg38534

Updated WW chart..

maxi,

If you look at calven's chart just above this post, DESC currently is in a Symmetrical Triangle (applause to calven for his nice work on this stock).  Since this is looking like we're currently in an Elliott Wave 4, those often "morph" (change) into something else.

I've drawn this "possible" Elliott 5 Wave scenario below my chart:

Wave 1 - was the first move down off the Wolfe Wave 5 "false breakout."

Wave 2 - was another "false move" out of the Wolfe Wave pattern that failed.

Wave 3 - is usually the largest move of the 5 Elliott Waves.  This one was a tank from 10.49 to the December 21 low of 6.92.

Wave 4 -  When a Wave 2 rally is "simple" (it was), Wave 4 down should alternate, and be "complex."  This is looking that way.  Right now, it's a Symmetrical Triangle, as seen in calven's chart above. 

I have the top of that Symmetrical Triangle drawn as a dotted red line on my chart.

If we rally back to the broken Wolfe Wave, calven's Symmetrical Triangle is going to "morph" into a Bear Flag (solid red lines), and we will have what looks like an A-B-C Wave 4 Bear Flag rally into resistance at the bottom of the broken Wolfe Wave, which comes in at 8.465 on Tuesday, January 6.  It rises at 0.032 daily, if you want to track it.

If we get a rally to "C" that is equal to the rally to "A," that would be 8.28, so we'll watch for that if DESC rallies. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 31, 2005, 03:47:26 PM
If we get a rally to "C" that is equal to the rally to "A," that would be 8.28, so we'll watch for that if DESC rallies. 

DESC rallied to 8.20 today and closed at 8.09, up almost 7%.  The Ascending Triangle breakout on the hourly (chart below) looks like this has some more upside. 

QuoteIf we rally back to the broken Wolfe Wave, calven's Symmetrical Triangle is going to "morph" into a Bear Flag (solid red lines), and we will have what looks like an A-B-C Wave 4 Bear Flag rally into resistance at the bottom of the broken Wolfe Wave, which comes in at 8.465 on Tuesday, January 6.  It rises at 0.032 daily, if you want to track it.

DESC broke out above the Symmetrical Triangle, so we got the pattern "morph."  So far, this looks to be playing out as the A-B-C Wave 4 rally shown in my daily chart this weekend.

Quote

Quote

thanks for the great work melf and cal,
looks like i might jump in tomorrow. like to see it open lower but it will probably gap up slightly ,
then i will wait and look for the pullback.
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on January 04, 2006, 12:15:40 AM
thanks for the great work melf and cal,
looks like i might jump in tomorrow. like to see it open lower but it will probably gap up slightly ,
then i will wait and look for the pullback.
maxi

maxi,

Short-term, with yesterday's upside Ascending Triangle breakout (hourly chart in last post), I would expect DESC to rally to a minimum of 8.49-8.51 to complete "C" of Elliott Wave 4.  It could go higher than that.  The Ascending Triangle breakout measures to about 8.98, but that might be difficult to achieve since this is a countertrend rally.

1. For today, January 4, the bottom of the broken Wolfe Wave is 8.497. 

2. For today, January 4, the top of the Bear Flag is 8.51.

Bigger picture, it looks like the current Elliott Wave 4 A-B-C rally also could be the formation of the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top, which reinforces the bearishness of the Wolfe Wave if the neckline is taken out. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 04, 2006, 04:34:46 AM
maxi,

Short-term, with yesterday's upside Ascending Triangle breakout (hourly chart in last post), I would expect DESC to rally to a minimum of 8.49-8.51 to complete "C" of Elliott Wave 4.  It could go higher than that.  The Ascending Triangle breakout measures to about 8.98, but that might be difficult to achieve since this is a countertrend rally.

1. For today, January 4, the bottom of the broken Wolfe Wave is 8.497. 

2. For today, January 4, the top of the Bear Flag is 8.51.

DESC printed 8.51 at 3:30PM, up another 5% today.  Suggestion: Take some profits on longs when you get to resistance, especially when it's DOUBLE resistance, like this is:

1. 8.497 Resistance at the bottom of the broken Wolfe Wave.

2. 8.51 Resistance at the top of the Wave 4 A-B-C rally to the top of the Bear Flag (see Daily Chart in the last post for the A-B-C  Bear Flag).

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 04, 2006, 03:43:02 PM
[DESC printed 8.51 at 3:30PM, up another 5% today.  Suggestion: Take some profits on longs when you get to resistance, especially when it's DOUBLE resistance, like this is

8.51 was the exact high on the day.

I suspect that we've got some technicians playing this one.   8)

Two days of selloff Thursday and Friday, after the Wave 4 A-B-C rally to DOUBLE resistance completed exactly at the 8.51 target (top of the Bear Flag) on Wednesday. 

So far, the Elliott Wave scenario that I oulined at the end of the year (see drawing at the bottom of the chart) and calven's Wave Wolfe scenario are playing out to "textbook perfection." 

If we saw the high on Wednesday and DESC tanks from here, I'm going to be annoyed with myself that I didn't short it at DOUBLE resistance,  but I didn't for the following reasons:

1. The general market was very strong this week.

2. DESC had an Ascending Triangle upside breakout (see hourly chart in post above) that measures to 8.98.

3. Elliott Wave 4s are notoriously difficult to play.  They tend to "yank you around."  Bearish patterns like Bear Flags and Rising Wedges can keep ratcheting their way higher and higher, stopping you out, then they tank. 

NOTE: That type of action is an example of when making "higher highs and higher lows" isn't bullish, as it normally is.

Here's how that "ratcheting its way higher," making "higher highs and higher lows" in bearish fashion could play out.  Picture DESC rallying from here, back toward:

1. The top of the Bear Flag (red line)

2. The bottom of the Wolfe Wave (blue line)

3. The 50DMA (green line)

Those all come in early next week in the 8.60 - 8.76 area.  If DESC makes a bid to get through that price range, it's up against TRIPLE resistance.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 08, 2006, 06:48:05 AM
If we saw the high on Wednesday and DESC tanks from here, I'm going to be annoyed with myself that I didn't short it at DOUBLE resistance,  but I didn't for the following reasons:

1. The general market was very strong this week.

2. DESC had an Ascending Triangle upside breakout (see hourly chart in post above) that measures to 8.98.

3. Elliott Wave 4s are notoriously difficult to play.  They tend to "yank you around."  Bearish patterns like Bear Flags and Rising Wedges can keep ratcheting their way higher and higher, stopping you out, then they tank. 

DESC broke below the Bear Flag on Wednesday, then yesterday, ran all the way back through the Bear Flag, and CLOSED at 8.89, above all of this resistance:

Quote
Here's how that "ratcheting its way higher," making "higher highs and higher lows" in bearish fashion could play out.  Picture DESC rallying from here, back toward:

1. The top of the Bear Flag (red line)

2. The bottom of the Wolfe Wave (blue line)

3. The 50DMA (green line)

Those all come in early next week in the 8.60 - 8.76 area.  If DESC makes a bid to get through that price range, it's up against TRIPLE resistance.

Talk about a short squeeze!   :o  :o  :o

My plan was to short DESC if it made a bid for that TRIPLE resistance, but not when it closes above all of it, and on good volume, like it did.   We'll see how it does from here.

You were absolutely right to NOT short DESC when that long white bodied candle re-entered the previous channel on high volume! 100% perfect TA!!!  ;) That was the "tell"...




I have been stalking DESC for the past few months hoping to buy at that 1-4 WW support line but obviously never got the chance...oil prices bottomed and energy started to move again just before my long entry target was reached...needless to say DESC never got the chance to hit the 1-4 line ($68 oil) and it rallied early. Oh well nothing gained nothing lost.

Good TA though Melf Elf...even the WW cant account for the swings in oil prices. Fundamentals ultimately take over.  Its a shame that our patience wasn't rewarded on this one.

Applaud the work though!

Although I don't short stocks much personally, I would encourage you to take a look at shorting DESC when it reaches the 1-3 resistance line again...could be worth a look

cal  >:D

Quote from: calven on January 21, 2006, 03:12:54 AM
I have been stalking DESC for the past few months

cal,

lol...I have to admit to some "stalking," too.   Good description.   ;D

Quote
Good TA though Melf Elf...even the WW cant account for the swings in oil prices. Fundamentals ultimately take over.  Its a shame that our patience wasn't rewarded on this one.

Applaud the work though!

Thanks, cal.  I particularly appreciate that, given how "marked" this looked as a good short, and how much difficulty I had warding off the demons who wanted to "squeeze" the life out of me on this one! 

>:D   >:D  >:D

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 21, 2006, 08:49:25 AM
Thanks, cal.  I particularly appreciate that, given how "marked" this looked as a good short, and how much difficulty I had warding off the demons who wanted to "squeeze" the life out of me on this one! 

>:D   >:D  >:D

calven,

Thought you'd get a kick out of this chart.

As you will remember, we removed DESC from consideration as a short when it managed the close above triple resistance on January 12.  There are so many charts to look at, I haven't followed it since then (we need a "division of labor."  You take 10...you take 10...you take 10...you take 10...)

;D.

On February 1, DESC topped out at a new high of 11.00 (after sqeezing the shorts), then formed two Bear Flags, and yesterday, fell like a brick below a bunch of support.

What an interesting chart!

Hello Melf Elf,

Your opinon on DESC is appreciated.

Quote from: njshiva on September 26, 2006, 10:28:19 PM
Hello Melf Elf,

Your opinon on DESC is appreciated.

njshiva,

You must have ESP, asking me about DESC at this particular time.  I studied it last weekend, and was going to use it to present a piece in Melf's Workshop on the MACD signal line crossovers, and bounces higher off the signal line, since the March 8 crash (red arrows on the chart). 

Basically, all of those signals were a bust.  Some produced a one or two day rally.  Other crossover signals were given right at tops of moves.  The last bounce higher off the signal line, right near zero, rolled over to the downside, and resulted in the recent waterfall decline.

>:(  :'(

While I was studying the chart, I noticed that it "could be" forming a Bullish Wolfe Wave.  Last weekend, DESC closed right at the bottom of the possible Wolfe Wave Channel, and was needing a Wave 5 fakeout to the downside (not required, but usually better if there is one).

We got the Wave 5 move down on Monday and Tuesday, then an upside reversal back to the bottom of the Wolfe Wave channel at yesterday's close.  I'll show you a close-up of that next.

Meanwhile...the Bearish Wolfe Wave Target line (Blue #6) has a severe downward slope.  We never hit it, but I guess that's a moot point since the stock has gotten hammered so badly.  It's still IN PLAY, though, since DESC hasn't done anything bullish yet.

njshiva,

The past three days' trading looks like a Bullish Morning Star, except Monday's black candle shoulder be longer than it is; it should have closed closer to the low of the day.  Otherwise, yesterday's candle needed to close at 3.32, or better, in order to get half way through Monday's candle to qualify for the Bullish Morning Star.  Yesterday's close was 3.32 exactly, and the close also is smack on the bottom of the "possible" Bullish Wolfe Wave.

The reason for the "fakeout" to Wave 5, below the channel, is get "everyone" on the wrong side of the trade.  Bullis give up when the channel breaks, and sell at the wrong time, and Bears jump in and short the stock on the channel break, also at the wrong time.

So, this certainly has that look to it.  It's a knife-catcher at the moment, and things like MACD are pointing straight down, but again, that's the sort of thing that you see at a Wave 5 fakeout.  Notice that at the November, 2005 Bearish Wave 5 fakeout, there looked to be no sign of stopping DESC on the upside.  It tanked from 10.70 to 6.92, for a 35.3% decline.

If this is a Bullish Wolfe Wave, the Wave 6 target line is derived by connecting the low of Wave 1 and the high of Wave 4.  That's now at about 5.50, and rising toward the declining 200DMA, which is the dotted red line.

Fundamentally, I don't know anything about the company.  It could be a piece of junk, or it could have prospects.  Maybe you or someone else could help with that.

Good luck if you own it, or if you play it, njshiva!

 

Melf Elf,
As always one of the things I look forward here at 3SOF is your technical analysis.
I normally would have jumped on to this one with yesterdays spike. With oil going down I am shy of the whole sector.

Thanks for the reply . Applaud you!!

Very nice move by DESC today, up over 10% on decent volume.  You can see that there has been a lot of churn in the low 3s, and I think this looks like it could be a solid short term reversal play.  I would not be surprised to see it run to 4 fairly quickly, which is next resistance (but doesn't look t be very significant), and above that 4.50, which also coincides with descending resistance from the triangle breakdown.

There was an interesting article written today, in addition to the announcement of the completion of their Manhattan Project (pardon the pun) which indicates that regulatory red-tape around distributed genertion projects has recently been lifted, which may materially impact DESC in terms of increased contracts and consultancy:

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/061010/18195_id.html?.v=1

I like today's move and expect we may see some continuation during the rest of this week.  May look to buy tomorrow.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 10, 2006, 06:01:44 PM
Very nice move by DESC today, up over 10% on decent volume...  I would not be surprised to see it run to 4 fairly quickly

Scotsman,

Yes, it was! 

I agree.  The declining 50DMA is just below 4.10. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 27, 2006, 02:30:50 AM

The past three days' trading looks like a Bullish Morning Star

Interestingly, the following 3 sessions, September 27, 28, 29, was another Bullish Morning Star.

Quote
and the close also is smack on the bottom of the "possible" Bullish Wolfe Wave.

DESC finally closed back inside the channel on October 5, 6, and 9, prior to yesterday's nice gain.

Quote
The reason for the "fakeout" to Wave 5, below the channel, is get "everyone" on the wrong side of the trade.  Bullis give up when the channel breaks, and sell at the wrong time, and Bears jump in and short the stock on the channel break, also at the wrong time. So, this certainly has that look to it.

If it isn't a Bullish Wolfe Wave, it sure is doing a good job of acting like one!  :D

Quote
It's a knife-catcher at the moment, and things like MACD are pointing straight down, but again, that's the sort of thing that you see at a Wave 5 fakeout.  Notice that at the November, 2005 Bearish Wave 5 fakeout, there looked to be no sign of stopping DESC on the upside.  It tanked from 10.70 to 6.92, for a 35.3% decline.

It looked like no sign of stopping DESC on the downside.  It has ralled 26.9% off the 2.90 low.

Quote
If this is a Bullish Wolfe Wave, the Wave 6 target line is derived by connecting the low of Wave 1 and the high of Wave 4.  That's now at about 5.50, and rising toward the declining 200DMA, which is the dotted red line.

DESC came reasonably close during this lengthy decline to achieving the downside target line (#6 blue) off the Bearish Wolfe Wave. 

It will be fun to see if it can give the upside target line (#6 green) a little chase.  :D

Think you might take a position mr. elf?

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 11, 2006, 04:57:39 AM
Think you might take a position mr. elf?

Scotsman,

No, the volume has gotten too thin.  I also wouldn't buy it this extended off the 2.90 low.  The bottom of the channel, after the Bullish Morning Stars, was a good risk:reward entry.

U.S. Missile Defense Agency Awards $1.25 Million Contract to Proton Energy Systems for Regenerative Fuel Cell Research
Wednesday October 11, 4:30 pm ET
Regenerative Fuel Cell Study Aims at Greater Efficiency, Reduced Weight

WALLINGFORD, Conn., Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Proton Energy Systems, a leader in hydrogen generation and fuel cell technology and products, and a subsidiary of Wallingford, CT-based Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (Nasdaq: DESC - News), announced today that it has been awarded a $1.25 million follow-on contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA). The Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Phase III contract calls for continued development of regenerative fuel cell technology for high altitude airships.

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The research project is part of a Department of Defense initiative to develop a lighter-than-air, high-altitude airship Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) prototype. According to the Missile Defense Agency, this ACTD plans to demonstrate the engineering feasibility and potential utility of an unmanned, untethered, gas-filled, solar-powered airship that can fly at 70,000 ft.

Research will proceed during a one-year period designed to test the efficiency and performance of Proton's hydrogen-generating "core stack." In addition, its proton exchange membrane (PEM) stack technology will be monitored closely as it is scaled up to the size required for high-altitude airship deployment.

"By working with the MDA on the high-altitude airship application, Proton will be better able to advance its expertise in regenerative fuel cell technology for this and many other government and commercial applications," said Rob Friedland, senior vice president and head of the Hydrogen Technology Group. "In addition, all of us at Proton are grateful to Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Lieberman for their strong support of this important technology program."

The proton exchange membrane electrolysis technology developed by Proton produces energy by converting water into hydrogen and oxygen to power the airship. This PEM reaction happens in a controlled environment, enabling Proton's regenerative fuel cell system to provide the airship with its necessary power. This same technology is also used to provide back-up power in the telecom industry, as well as for serving huge commercial markets for hydrogen, including cooling power plant generators.

Approved for public release, 06-MDA-1860 (5-Sept-06)

Proton Energy's Hydrogen Technology Group (HTG) is part of Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (NASDAQ: DESC - News). The Military and Aerospace Team within HTG designs, develops, models, and builds technology solutions based on Proton's core PEM technology. They meet the technical needs of a diverse customer base that includes commercial aerospace partners, and civilian and military government agencies. Please contact the Military and Aerospace Team at 203.678.2351 and online at www.protonenergy.com/company/hyd-tech.html to learn more.

 ;)

DESC...has dropped a lot. Wow. :o

I like the alternative energy field.  I know solars were hot in 2007 and correcting right now in early 2008...they should stage a comeback...I believe.

This may be the year of wind turbines and later in the year fuel cells.

I don't own DESC...but have been watching closely.  Looking to buy soon and holding for the long term.  I think DESC could be a winner in 2008. :)

$25 million dollar market cap with revenues of $35 million for the previous 12 months.  Bud Cherry...former CEO of Foster Wheeler Global Power Group was named interim CEO in 2007

Most recent press release:

BARRE, Vt., Jan. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (Nasdaq: DESC - News), an innovative leader in wind power technology, announced today it received orders for seven Northwind 100 wind turbines for use in Alaska and the Northeast region of the United States.

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Four of the advanced 100 kilowatt wind systems were sold to the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC), a utility responsible for providing power to 53 villages in Alaska. The other three wind turbines were ordered by Sustainable Energy Developments, Inc., (SED) an Ontario, NY-based company, currently developing wind projects with businesses, municipalities, residences, schools and farms in the Northeast.

Bud Cherry, chief executive officer of Distributed Energy Systems, said: "These important sales emphasize DESC's commitment to supplying state of the art, reliable, and cost effective wind turbines in extremely diverse environments. This latest follow-on sale to AVEC - their 15th through 18th Northwind units - is gratifying to us, underscoring once again this established customer's continuing satisfaction with the Northwind 100. We also welcome the partnership with Sustainable Energy Developments as we bring the Northwind 100 into the "lower 48" marketplace."

AVEC's four new Northwind 100 units are planned to be installed in its remote village diesel systems in Mekoryuk and Savoonga, which border the Bering Sea. In these wind-diesel applications, the Northwind 100 offsets the ever-increasing costs of diesel power generation. "In 2007, three Northwind 100 turbines provided over 20% of the electrical production for two interconnected villages on Nelson Island." said Brent Petrie, special projects manager for the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative. "That installation alone displaced approximately $85,000 in diesel fuel costs in 2007." Petrie said AVEC is evaluating the potential installation of wind turbines in up to 27 of the 53 communities it serves.

"The Northwind 100 will be a crucial part of SED's continued success in the Northeast," said Kevin Schulte, CEO and Co-Founder of SED. "The demand of projects requiring this size turbine matched with the respect we have for Distributed Energy Systems made the partnership and purchase of the three Northwind 100s a no-brainer."

With 100kW of rated power, the Northwind 100 was designed for use in wind- diesel applications, and more recently has been released as an alternative power generator for small businesses, commercial farms, small communities, schools and universities, and small corporate and industrial sites. The turbine uses gearless design and direct-drive architecture to deliver high energy capture and low maintenance requirements to a mainstream wind energy marketplace.

DESC profile:

Distributed Energy Systems Corp. designs, builds, and installs stand-alone and grid-connected electric power systems for industrial, commercial, and governmental customers. Its generating systems convert energy derived from wind, sunlight, oil, natural gas, diesel, and bio-fuels into electricity, using power generation technologies integrated with custom controls and power electronics. It sells its systems to grid-connected customers and to customers who need power solutions for remote locations or environmentally benign alternatives to centrally distributed electricity. The company also offers hydrogen generators, which utilize proprietary proton exchange membrane and electrochemical technology to produce hydrogen through the electrolysis of water, to domestic and international customers for industrial, utility, and research applications. It also develops additional technologies and products for the distributed energy market, including systems that provide backup power and energy storage, hydrogen generators that produce hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles, power network architectures that link diverse power generating sources, and advanced wind turbine generators. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut..

Has not been trading since sometime around mid June 08...