DESC

[njshiva]

Hello Melf Elf,

Your opinon on DESC is appreciated.

[Melf Elf]

Hello Melf Elf,

Your opinon on DESC is appreciated.

njshiva,

You must have ESP, asking me about DESC at this particular time.  I studied it last weekend, and was going to use it to present a piece in Melf's Workshop on the MACD signal line crossovers, and bounces higher off the signal line, since the March 8 crash (red arrows on the chart). 

Basically, all of those signals were a bust.  Some produced a one or two day rally.  Other crossover signals were given right at tops of moves.  The last bounce higher off the signal line, right near zero, rolled over to the downside, and resulted in the recent waterfall decline.

 

While I was studying the chart, I noticed that it "could be" forming a Bullish Wolfe Wave.  Last weekend, DESC closed right at the bottom of the possible Wolfe Wave Channel, and was needing a Wave 5 fakeout to the downside (not required, but usually better if there is one).

We got the Wave 5 move down on Monday and Tuesday, then an upside reversal back to the bottom of the Wolfe Wave channel at yesterday's close.  I'll show you a close-up of that next.

Meanwhile...the Bearish Wolfe Wave Target line (Blue #6) has a severe downward slope.  We never hit it, but I guess that's a moot point since the stock has gotten hammered so badly.  It's still IN PLAY, though, since DESC hasn't done anything bullish yet.

[Melf Elf]

njshiva,

The past three days' trading looks like a Bullish Morning Star, except Monday's black candle shoulder be longer than it is; it should have closed closer to the low of the day.  Otherwise, yesterday's candle needed to close at 3.32, or better, in order to get half way through Monday's candle to qualify for the Bullish Morning Star.  Yesterday's close was 3.32 exactly, and the close also is smack on the bottom of the "possible" Bullish Wolfe Wave.

The reason for the "fakeout" to Wave 5, below the channel, is get "everyone" on the wrong side of the trade.  Bullis give up when the channel breaks, and sell at the wrong time, and Bears jump in and short the stock on the channel break, also at the wrong time.

So, this certainly has that look to it.  It's a knife-catcher at the moment, and things like MACD are pointing straight down, but again, that's the sort of thing that you see at a Wave 5 fakeout.  Notice that at the November, 2005 Bearish Wave 5 fakeout, there looked to be no sign of stopping DESC on the upside.  It tanked from 10.70 to 6.92, for a 35.3% decline.

If this is a Bullish Wolfe Wave, the Wave 6 target line is derived by connecting the low of Wave 1 and the high of Wave 4.  That's now at about 5.50, and rising toward the declining 200DMA, which is the dotted red line.

Fundamentally, I don't know anything about the company.  It could be a piece of junk, or it could have prospects.  Maybe you or someone else could help with that.

Good luck if you own it, or if you play it, njshiva!

 

[njshiva]

Melf Elf,
As always one of the things I look forward here at 3SOF is your technical analysis.
I normally would have jumped on to this one with yesterdays spike. With oil going down I am shy of the whole sector.

Thanks for the reply . Applaud you!!

[ScottishTrader]

Very nice move by DESC today, up over 10% on decent volume.  You can see that there has been a lot of churn in the low 3s, and I think this looks like it could be a solid short term reversal play.  I would not be surprised to see it run to 4 fairly quickly, which is next resistance (but doesn't look t be very significant), and above that 4.50, which also coincides with descending resistance from the triangle breakdown.

There was an interesting article written today, in addition to the announcement of the completion of their Manhattan Project (pardon the pun) which indicates that regulatory red-tape around distributed genertion projects has recently been lifted, which may materially impact DESC in terms of increased contracts and consultancy:

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/061010/18195_id.html?.v=1

I like today's move and expect we may see some continuation during the rest of this week.  May look to buy tomorrow.

[Melf Elf]

Very nice move by DESC today, up over 10% on decent volume...  I would not be surprised to see it run to 4 fairly quickly

Scotsman,

Yes, it was! 

I agree.  The declining 50DMA is just below 4.10. 

The past three days' trading looks like a Bullish Morning Star

Interestingly, the following 3 sessions, September 27, 28, 29, was another Bullish Morning Star.

and the close also is smack on the bottom of the "possible" Bullish Wolfe Wave.

DESC finally closed back inside the channel on October 5, 6, and 9, prior to yesterday's nice gain.

The reason for the "fakeout" to Wave 5, below the channel, is get "everyone" on the wrong side of the trade.  Bullis give up when the channel breaks, and sell at the wrong time, and Bears jump in and short the stock on the channel break, also at the wrong time. So, this certainly has that look to it.

If it isn't a Bullish Wolfe Wave, it sure is doing a good job of acting like one! 

It's a knife-catcher at the moment, and things like MACD are pointing straight down, but again, that's the sort of thing that you see at a Wave 5 fakeout.  Notice that at the November, 2005 Bearish Wave 5 fakeout, there looked to be no sign of stopping DESC on the upside.  It tanked from 10.70 to 6.92, for a 35.3% decline.

It looked like no sign of stopping DESC on the downside.  It has ralled 26.9% off the 2.90 low.

If this is a Bullish Wolfe Wave, the Wave 6 target line is derived by connecting the low of Wave 1 and the high of Wave 4.  That's now at about 5.50, and rising toward the declining 200DMA, which is the dotted red line.

DESC came reasonably close during this lengthy decline to achieving the downside target line (#6 blue) off the Bearish Wolfe Wave. 

It will be fun to see if it can give the upside target line (#6 green) a little chase. 

[ScottishTrader]

Think you might take a position mr. elf?

[Melf Elf]

Think you might take a position mr. elf?

Scotsman,

No, the volume has gotten too thin.  I also wouldn't buy it this extended off the 2.90 low.  The bottom of the channel, after the Bullish Morning Stars, was a good risk:reward entry.

[REALDEALS21]

U.S. Missile Defense Agency Awards $1.25 Million Contract to Proton Energy Systems for Regenerative Fuel Cell Research
Wednesday October 11, 4:30 pm ET
Regenerative Fuel Cell Study Aims at Greater Efficiency, Reduced Weight

WALLINGFORD, Conn., Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Proton Energy Systems, a leader in hydrogen generation and fuel cell technology and products, and a subsidiary of Wallingford, CT-based Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (Nasdaq: DESC - News), announced today that it has been awarded a $1.25 million follow-on contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA). The Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Phase III contract calls for continued development of regenerative fuel cell technology for high altitude airships.

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The research project is part of a Department of Defense initiative to develop a lighter-than-air, high-altitude airship Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) prototype. According to the Missile Defense Agency, this ACTD plans to demonstrate the engineering feasibility and potential utility of an unmanned, untethered, gas-filled, solar-powered airship that can fly at 70,000 ft.

Research will proceed during a one-year period designed to test the efficiency and performance of Proton's hydrogen-generating "core stack." In addition, its proton exchange membrane (PEM) stack technology will be monitored closely as it is scaled up to the size required for high-altitude airship deployment.

"By working with the MDA on the high-altitude airship application, Proton will be better able to advance its expertise in regenerative fuel cell technology for this and many other government and commercial applications," said Rob Friedland, senior vice president and head of the Hydrogen Technology Group. "In addition, all of us at Proton are grateful to Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Lieberman for their strong support of this important technology program."

The proton exchange membrane electrolysis technology developed by Proton produces energy by converting water into hydrogen and oxygen to power the airship. This PEM reaction happens in a controlled environment, enabling Proton's regenerative fuel cell system to provide the airship with its necessary power. This same technology is also used to provide back-up power in the telecom industry, as well as for serving huge commercial markets for hydrogen, including cooling power plant generators.

Approved for public release, 06-MDA-1860 (5-Sept-06)

Proton Energy's Hydrogen Technology Group (HTG) is part of Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (NASDAQ: DESC - News). The Military and Aerospace Team within HTG designs, develops, models, and builds technology solutions based on Proton's core PEM technology. They meet the technical needs of a diverse customer base that includes commercial aerospace partners, and civilian and military government agencies. Please contact the Military and Aerospace Team at 203.678.2351 and online at www.protonenergy.com/company/hyd-tech.html to learn more.

[njshiva]

 

[kslifka]

DESC...has dropped a lot. Wow.

I like the alternative energy field.  I know solars were hot in 2007 and correcting right now in early 2008...they should stage a comeback...I believe.

This may be the year of wind turbines and later in the year fuel cells.

I don't own DESC...but have been watching closely.  Looking to buy soon and holding for the long term.  I think DESC could be a winner in 2008.

$25 million dollar market cap with revenues of $35 million for the previous 12 months.  Bud Cherry...former CEO of Foster Wheeler Global Power Group was named interim CEO in 2007

Most recent press release:

BARRE, Vt., Jan. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Distributed Energy Systems Corp. (Nasdaq: DESC - News), an innovative leader in wind power technology, announced today it received orders for seven Northwind 100 wind turbines for use in Alaska and the Northeast region of the United States.

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Four of the advanced 100 kilowatt wind systems were sold to the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC), a utility responsible for providing power to 53 villages in Alaska. The other three wind turbines were ordered by Sustainable Energy Developments, Inc., (SED) an Ontario, NY-based company, currently developing wind projects with businesses, municipalities, residences, schools and farms in the Northeast.

Bud Cherry, chief executive officer of Distributed Energy Systems, said: "These important sales emphasize DESC's commitment to supplying state of the art, reliable, and cost effective wind turbines in extremely diverse environments. This latest follow-on sale to AVEC - their 15th through 18th Northwind units - is gratifying to us, underscoring once again this established customer's continuing satisfaction with the Northwind 100. We also welcome the partnership with Sustainable Energy Developments as we bring the Northwind 100 into the "lower 48" marketplace."

AVEC's four new Northwind 100 units are planned to be installed in its remote village diesel systems in Mekoryuk and Savoonga, which border the Bering Sea. In these wind-diesel applications, the Northwind 100 offsets the ever-increasing costs of diesel power generation. "In 2007, three Northwind 100 turbines provided over 20% of the electrical production for two interconnected villages on Nelson Island." said Brent Petrie, special projects manager for the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative. "That installation alone displaced approximately $85,000 in diesel fuel costs in 2007." Petrie said AVEC is evaluating the potential installation of wind turbines in up to 27 of the 53 communities it serves.

"The Northwind 100 will be a crucial part of SED's continued success in the Northeast," said Kevin Schulte, CEO and Co-Founder of SED. "The demand of projects requiring this size turbine matched with the respect we have for Distributed Energy Systems made the partnership and purchase of the three Northwind 100s a no-brainer."

With 100kW of rated power, the Northwind 100 was designed for use in wind- diesel applications, and more recently has been released as an alternative power generator for small businesses, commercial farms, small communities, schools and universities, and small corporate and industrial sites. The turbine uses gearless design and direct-drive architecture to deliver high energy capture and low maintenance requirements to a mainstream wind energy marketplace.

DESC profile:

Distributed Energy Systems Corp. designs, builds, and installs stand-alone and grid-connected electric power systems for industrial, commercial, and governmental customers. Its generating systems convert energy derived from wind, sunlight, oil, natural gas, diesel, and bio-fuels into electricity, using power generation technologies integrated with custom controls and power electronics. It sells its systems to grid-connected customers and to customers who need power solutions for remote locations or environmentally benign alternatives to centrally distributed electricity. The company also offers hydrogen generators, which utilize proprietary proton exchange membrane and electrochemical technology to produce hydrogen through the electrolysis of water, to domestic and international customers for industrial, utility, and research applications. It also develops additional technologies and products for the distributed energy market, including systems that provide backup power and energy storage, hydrogen generators that produce hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles, power network architectures that link diverse power generating sources, and advanced wind turbine generators. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut..

[setravis]

Has not been trading since sometime around mid June 08...