3SOF

Northgate's Second Quarter Gold Production Increases Dramatically Kemess on Track to Produce 280,000 Ounces in 2005
Thursday July 28, 11:11 pm ET


VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 28, 2005--(All figures in US dollars except where noted) -
Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX - News; AMEX:NXG - News) today reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2005. Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital was $5,893,000 or $0.03 per common share for the second quarter of 2005. The loss for the quarter was $3,342,000 or $0.02 per share.

Approaching LT resistance line. Could see a breakout....

Nice chart work.  Applaud.

Nice pick and work on the charts calven ! Applaud....
Sleeper gold stock !
Breakout.....Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern

• Northgate Posts Strong Third Quarter Earnings of $8.8 Million Acquisition of Young-Davidson Mines to Close in Early November
Business Wire (Thu, Oct 27) 

• Northgate Completes Acquisition of Young-Davidson Mines, Limited
Business Wire (Wed, Nov 2) 

News  Link:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=NXG

Short term target of 1.70 for me, I dont know about you guys....

Calven,

Gosh - you're good!  I should just follow you around...  I missed this one ! But I am in YHOO and GOOG right now (per Zanger). I am really bad at this stuff! Just trying to make up for losses  - OUCH :(

Testing LT descending trendline. Needs to break and hold 1.55 into the close for a valid breakout....

BOOM! >:D

Just missed my 1.70 sell target.... still holding...

NXG new 52 week high. 1.72  >:D

You still holding Cal ?  ???
Looks to me this little pup may have some more to give.
Announced an apparent expansion of the minable region surrounding the
Kemess North field. The stock is moving strongly, and for good reason.
Record earnings expected in the 4th quarter, and the recent strength in gold and copper,
suggests that NXG will continue on. FY 2005 could reach 0.18 - 0.20 per share, giving a
PE less than 10. Next years earnings could reach $0.30 per share if gold copper and silver do not decline by more than 10 % fro current prices.

Longer term Resistance areas of $2.01.....2.20....258.
Could be possible targets now. What say you,Cal ?
Nice work Calven......Applaud !!!  ;D

I agree with your analysis setravis. I also like your resistance levels annotated on the chart above. Very nice work (applaud). Sold some of my position already (half @1.70) I'll give the remaining shares more time. I like 2.00 also for (target 2)  The volume with NXG looks outstanding!

Cal  >:D

NXG 1.92  - 52 week high

Hit 2.17.... You guys still holding???

cal   >:D

Still holding half of my original position... wont sell until that upsloping trendline is broken.

Gap up today!


2.26 HOD


cal  >:D

NXG continues to move!

2.38 - new 52 week high

Any TA for new move?
Thanks

Hey- sorry, havent updated this thread in a while. Didnt think anyone else was holding with me or even interested in my thoughts on NXG...lol

Took profits on half my position at 1.71 then again when it dipped (2.09). Holding onto the rest (820 shares) for 3.00 and over. Today was beautiful to say the least.

Resistance at 2.50 - all time high levels... IMO this will be over 3.00 in 2006

Horizontal resistance levels shown on the previous charts I posted.

Good Luck,
Cal  >:D

I'm interested CAL.. ;)
let me add some chart of this bullish stock ;)

Uptrend Suport line broken as well as the 50 day MA..  Im fully out of this position- 2.15

What a ride!


cal  >:D

NXG moving even higher... Not currently in the stock but 3.00 would be the target...

It continues to run!  >:D

Made an awesome little run Cal...... ;D

Volume: 5,107,800
Avg Vol (3m): 2,187,430

Technicals
Record Price High
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
inf%above 13-day EMA
inf%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 96 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $286.66 
P/E Ratio: 9.17 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 05/01/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Underperform

Headline News Link....  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=NXG

The GOLD bull run continues...........Strong close.......... ;D

Anyone holding NXG? Any thoughts on this stock and the sell off the last few days?

I sold today all of my stocks. I got creamed on NXG, NTO, TGB, AUY.  I think the 5 day chart for Gold looks the a possible H&S forming but I am not sure.  The stock market looks bad to me. INDU & COMP and most of the major indices broke through the support lines. Does anyone have any ideas about how bad this will be?  OR will it recover?

I think the gold selloff is orchestrated to shake out weak hands !
While big institutions are building positions.
Look at todays volume,The price shot up at the very end of the day.
Volume: 16,844,900
Avg Vol (3m): 4,911,490
Bounce off a 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement.
It appears that somebody bough shares just before closing and they did not care about the price..... I think the correction is just about over and people are jumping back in to take the next ride up.

Technicals
Record Volume
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
inf%above 13-day EMA
inf%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $286.66 
P/E Ratio: 9.17 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 07/27/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Underperform

Here is a thread on NXG,
Maybe that will help.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3685.0

Finding support.............

I also like this excerpt from Clive Maund on 321gold.com................"Metals and stocks are then expected to dip, with gold and silver dropping below last weeks lows to the levels detailed above, although stocks are not expected to drop much below last weeks' lows, and the stronger ones may not react as far as last weeks' lows.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund052206.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060525/0131524.html

with good news, gold consolidating and the market in a relief rally, Lets see what NXG can do!

This is strong NEWS!  ;D

We should see strong volume tomorrow, Chart shows excellent support on the 50 MA.............

NORTHGATE INTERSECTS 8.92 g/tonne GOLD OVER 218.5 FEET AT YOUNG-DAVIDSON
Thursday May 25, 7:25 pm ET


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 25, 2006 -- Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX.TO - News)(AMEX:NXG - News) today announced that diamond drilling at its Young-Davidson property near the town of Matachewan, Ontario continues to intersect significant gold mineralization. Assay results from six additional drill holes are reported herein.
ADVERTISEMENT


Drilling Highlights

- Hole YD06-1B, returned three gold bearing intervals, 33.49 g/tonne over 32.5 ft and 16.45 g/tonne over 20 ft both within a larger zone grading 8.92 g/tonne Au over 218.5 ft. Drill hole YD06-01B is the second best hole ever drilled on the property by any operator.

- Hole YD06-09, the second deepest hole ever on the property, intersected an extension of the Lower Boundary Zone 300 feet east and 250 ft below YD06-01B and returned 8.28 g/tonne Au over 52 ft within a broader zone of 4.49 g/tonne over 102.7 feet.

- Confirmation hole YD06-06, drilled to test the Upper Boundary Zone in the vicinity of historical intersections, returned 3.47 g/tonne over 105 ft and 5.33 g/tonne over 46.5 ft both within a zone grading 2.63 g/tonne over 199 ft. These results are consistent with the historic results.

- Four drills are presently active on the property. Two drills are testing the Lower Boundary Zone, one drill has just started the first hole testing the Lower YD Zone and a smaller fourth drill is testing the Lucky Zone.

Ken Stowe, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "Our view at the time that we acquired the Young-Davidson property was that it was a mine waiting to be developed and our exploration results thus far have provided compelling evidence to support this view. The wide gold intercepts in the deeper holes we have drilled below the Lower Boundary Zone are particularly noteworthy because they should make for a significant increase in the overall resource in a zone that has an ideal configuration for low cost bulk mining. We are also seeing considerable fine grained visible gold and some short, high-grade assay intervals that indicate the possibility of "jewellery box" zones once we get to detailed evaluation."

The fundamentals of the company are solid. This is one of the most efficient mining companies.

Company Facts
2005 Revenue (USD): 257.30M
Net Profit Margin: 20.93%
Operating Margin: 17.12%
Return on Average Assets: 22.98%
Return on Average Equity: 31.79%
2005 Employees: 360
815 Hornby Street Suite 404
Vancouver,  BC  V6Z 2E6
CAN 
+1-604-6814004 (Phone)
http://www.northgateminerals.com 

Company Financials Quarterly                                  (Mar '06)              Annual (2005) 
Income Statement
(in millions of USD)Total Revenue                              85.06                     257.30 
Gross Profit                                                            36.89                       72.22 
Operating Income                                                   22.79                       20.00 
Net Income                                                            21.73                      30.96 

Balance Sheet
(in millions of USD)Total Current Assets                     112.30                      89.10 
Total Assets                                                          311.93                     296.19 
Total Current Liabilities                                              31.92                       37.47 
Total Liabilities                                                         64.64                       72.57 
Total Equity                                                           247.30                     223.61             

Cash Flow
(in millions of USD)Net Income/Starting Line                 21.73                      32.89 
Cash from Operating                                                 28.89                      49.04 
Cash from Investing                                                 -2.02                       -13.26 
Cash from Financing                                                 -14.06                     -34.40 
Net Change in Cash                                                  12.80                        1.38


Technicals
Most Actives:
Volume: 7,216,800
Avg Vol (3m): 5,310,380
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
inf%above 13-day EMA
inf%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $286.66 
P/E Ratio: 9.17 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 07/27/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Underperform

Bounced very good of the 50-day MA

Gold is in play..........and so is NXG.     ;D

Chart looks good........

Upgrade to BUY..............by UBS!    ;D

Note: Michael will update this trade later, he asked me to add this position to the 3SOV portfolio today.

Trading Plan:
Buy NXG today at or near the open.

Regards,

the gold hype has gone..the timing for this pick is not that good

HI

It looks to me that this has more downside right now, before it starts going up - with price closing below 50 MA. It will be interesting to watch what will happen tomorrow.

I am not in this yet, so I can watch without being nervous.

Lalitha

Hi Lalitha0,
What do you think are the entry price points? I am also waiting on sidelines?
Thanks,
- Dhiraj

Hi Dhiraj,

If I could call entry and exit points I would be rich!

To my limited knowledge today seems to be a good day to get in since RSI went above 50 and the price is above 50 MA and MACD is turning up - would be better if it is above zero.

They also have copper so it is not a bad stock, but I am finding other good ones, so I am not getting into this one.

Good Luck!

Quote from: Ramsburg on August 16, 2006, 08:09:47 AM
Note: Michael will update this trade later, he asked me to add this position to the 3SOV portfolio today.

Trading Plan:
Buy NXG today at or near the open.

Regards,

When  ??? ??? ???

Lalitha

 ;D

The frequency that this portfolio is updated is terrible.  Not just this stock which we have been waiting since August 16th for, but in general the only ones updating the 3SOV plays are the members.  3SOF should consider dropping this portfolio if it is not going to be updated or even monitored!  So back to NXG, it is down another 7% today...any thoughts?

Quote from: lalitha0 on August 31, 2006, 03:12:54 PM

Quote from: Ramsburg on August 16, 2006, 08:09:47 AM
Note: Michael will update this trade later, he asked me to add this position to the 3SOV portfolio today.

Trading Plan:
Buy NXG today at or near the open.

Regards,

When  ??? ??? ???

Lalitha

my thought is that nxg along with egy are value stocks ..but not a good time to touch commodities stock for now

for nxg..a break down of the triangle..we may see this go lower from this point on

watch closely for turn around tho...

Any chance of an update here ?  ???

uc.

Quote from: Ramsburg on August 16, 2006, 08:09:47 AM
Note: Michael will update this trade later, he asked me to add this position to the 3SOV portfolio today.

Trading Plan:
Buy NXG today at or near the open.

Regards,

???

Well let me first apologize for the lack of update on NXG and 3SOV in general. I am really busy on my daytime job and even though Northgate seems to be a very simple pick it is actually quite complicated.

It is simple from a valuation point of view. NXG generated 65 million USD last quarter and its market cap. is 692 million USD. Their cost of Gold production offset by the  profit from copper and Silver production that is kind of a byproduct is basically zero (actually negative with 44 USD last quarter!) making them very robust in case of declining gold prices.

Now that is the simple part of this pick. The problem is that their existing mine (Kemess South) is fast being depleted and production will stop within the next 3 years  >:(

So the reason for picking is NXG is not the existing cash flow and profit as this soon will only have historical interest (even though they most likely will end up with a large bag of money) but rather the fact that their two existing projects (Kemess North and Young Davidson) and the strategic alternatives the company have is basically considered to be Zero with the existing valuation of the company.

Well I think that is wrong. I believe that NXG has a great management team and that they will most likely receive permissions to go ahead with the two projects and or find alternative investments for their healthy cash flow before KS is depleted. I also believe that there is a very realistic opportunity for a takeover bid in the future (which management in the last CC indicated they would consider).

I intented to write a lot more about KN and YD but have not had the time. I am however still convinced that NXG will turn out to be a good investment long term so we will hold the stock for now.

Quote from: poppintito on August 28, 2006, 07:41:21 PM
the gold hype has gone..the timing for this pick is not that good

Hmmm that was a very prophetic statement and for sure the timing was bad. We have suffered a great deal with Northgate

But the gold fever might come back:

China has the world largest reserves off foreign exchange (1 trillion dollar) and the want to diversify away from USD. Interestingly they also have one of the lowest percentages of gold reserves among the major central banks in the world. I don't think the financial markets fully have understood the impact of this. The currency markets has started to react but only slowly. It seems that a lot of investors still consider US to be an economic superpower.

Anyhow as said in the Valero thread even the best fundamental stocks need a trading plan and it is unforgivable and unnecessary that we have allowed Northgate to cause a 16% loss for 3SOV.

I still believe this is a great stock and my believe in gold and the most of the other metal (and energy) commodities is a strong as it was 3 month ago but lets put a safety net under this investment!

We will close our NXG position if it goes below 2.95.

Hmmmm... I am sure I offended a few of our US members with the last post so let me just elaborate a bit.

I don't think that the financial world understands the fundamental change in the power between. Europe, US, Russia, India and China. I am pretty bearish when it comes to the economies in Europe and US but more bullish when it comes to the rest of the world.

China and Gold is a perfect example of how the balance of power has changed.

Thirty years ago China held 95% of its foreign reserves in gold. Today, China's gold reserve only accounts for 1.3% of total reserves. A figure well below the average minimum 3%-5% in many other countries. China with an estimated gold reserve of 600 tonnes has a fraction of that believed held in the US with some 8,500 tonnes.d

But here is the point: China has a trade surplus of around $20 to $25 billion dollars monthly. Till now this surplus has predominantly been invested in US securities. When China declared that they are considering to change this the financial world should wake up and listen.

One month of trade surplus could buy 1200 tonnes of Gold! This means that China could buy more gold than US have in their reserves in less than 8-month :o

I don't think that this will happen (even though I am sure that China will increase their gold reserves) but imagine what effect that would have on the gold price and the currency market.

That is why I say that US today is not an economic super power. In fact the future of the US economy is to a large extent depending on decisions made in Beijing, Moscow and Delhi. Now this is certainly a new situation that investors have to relate to  ::)

For the time being it is not in the interest of China to disturb the US market so we are most likely safe but I like to invest in these "emergiing" markets just in case.

I just received this from sharpeyed.com and it's about NXG.






Dear Sharpeyed.com free newsletter subscribers,

More about NXG (Strong Buy Alert)

NORTHGATE MINERALS TO ENTER THE S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061211/0193598.html

Strong Buy NXG and hold it for the run! NXG will be very huge!

Reasons to buy NXG:

1> Looking at NXG's chart, the downside risk is minimal compared to short term upside potential. There is very good support at $2.82 (Hit on Sept 25, Oct 11 and Nov 17) Each time NXG has had a nice bounce off of this number.

2> NXG is in a pretty tight trading range since Dec 1: $3.10-$2.99. Seems to have good support at the $3 level in an environment where copper has taken a beating back close to $3 and gold is basing in the mid $620's and in my opinion getting ready for a run at $660-675 by January 1. Needs to break through $3.21 to make a run at $3.54 and then $3.94.

3> NXG was just listed on the TSX due to happen on December 18th.

4> NXG's cash position is great going into 2007. Negative gold production costs thanks to copper.

5> Warrant expiration at end of month taking the draw of the $3 range away.

6> Lots of potential in stock appreciation should YD results come out and the settlement of KN permitting.

7> Regardless of #6, NXG still looks to profit handsomely from existing mine activity and with its extensive cash build up (sh/c)ould look at acquiring a new mine to alleviate production concerns for the future.

-Forming a nice base above $3.00...
New listing
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061211/0193598.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061129/0189677.html
??
;)

Bought NXG at 3.11.  Stop: 2.94, below the low (#1) of the Symmetrical Triangle.  Risk: a loss of 5.5%.

I'm front-running a breakout here, which would be above 3.20-3.21 basis the daily chart, but given this Symmetrical Triangle breakout basis the hourly chart, and the upside takeout of 3.11 (#4), I took the trade at 3.11 on the pullback to the breakout.

I'll post the daily chart.

NXG currently is BID 3.10...ASK 3.11

Although NXG had a fairly hefty correction of 45.64% from the May high of 4.82 to the October low of 2.62, that's a reasonable correction for a stock that enjoyed a rally of 424% between May, 2005 and May, 2006.

Fibonacci corrections of 50%-61.8% are considered to be "normal."  Some technicians go even 74.6%, and still consider the trend to be bullish. 

As the chart stands, the pattern since the May, 2006 high is a Bullish Falling Wedge; only bullish, of course, if it breaks out to the upside.

We'll take a closer look at that pattern next post.

I'm with you Melf Elf, bought some @ 3.08!

Good luck to us!  :)

Highlights of the Bullish Falling Wedge:

1. There was an upside breakout of an Ascending Triangle (pattern in red) on September 6 that turned out to be a "fakeout breakout."

Those are really annoying, but they happen.

Quote from: Melf Elf link=topic=2090.msg81193#msg81193
I'm front-running a breakout here, which would be above 3.20-3.21 basis the daily chart

Some technicians insist on waiting for an actual breakout, but that "fakeout breakout" on September 6 is one of many examples of how those don't always work out, and how there aren't any guarantees on a trade, even with a breakout.

2. The primary reason that I'm tedious about calculating trendlines, is that once you get a third hit to a trendline, like NXG did on October 30, that's "generally" a pretty good indication that the trendline is important.

On October 30, NXG tagged the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge, within about a penny, then failed on a Bearish Island Reversal.

It "should" have some significance if NXG get take that trendline out to the upside.

3. NXG just broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle the hourly chart (shown in the first post this morning), and is working on a little Ascending Triangle breakout, short-term (pattern in purple).

We'll take a close look at the Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple) next post.

Quote from: Se7en on December 15, 2006, 11:17:43 AM
I'm with you Melf Elf, bought some @ 3.08!

Good luck to us!  :)

Yes, good luck to us, Se7en!  ;)

The top of the Ascending Triangle is 3.21 - 3,20.  It's not a very strong pattern (not very wide), but if it's taken out to the upside, it's automatically a breakout of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge.

This looks like a good risk/reward, thanks for the tip as always Melf.  Joined in at 3.07  :)

okay, you have convinced me; I have joined you.

NXG presentation link:
http://www.northgateexploration.ca/presentations_files/presentation.html

Tok and Oliver,

Okay, guys, good luck to us all!  ;)

My feeling on the stop is that if NXG  closes below the Ascending Triangle, there's a good chance the it will go back to the bottom of the pattern, but I'll go ahead with the 2.94 stop in case it "morphs" into something else.

I'd use the 2.82 low for a stop, but that's a risk of 9.3%, and I don't want that much.  I'd rather look to re-enter it at some other point.

Just my thoughts on the stop.

Overall, that big 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge looks like a Bullish Continuation pattern after the 424% rally into May of this year, so I like NXG from that standpoint. 

The longer-term trend still is bullish, it's just a question of how much risk we want.

Thanks for the info, Oliver!

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 15, 2006, 02:03:57 PM
I'll go ahead with the 2.94 stop in case it "morphs" into something else.

This already is looking like it "morphed" into an Ascending Triangle (the highs both are 3.14).

That's a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of larger Ascending Triangle on the daily chart, the pattern in purple, with the highs of 3.21 and 3.20.

Given that the metals stocks are getting smacked a bit today, NXG is holding up reasonably well.  We'd like to see the Ascending line (#1...#3) hold.

Of 21 metals stocks that I looked at, only 3 closed in the green yesterday: GBN, TGB and NGX.

Last I looked yesterday, the POG was down almost $12, so the close in NGX was good relative strength against  both the commodity and other metals stocks.

The good relative performance is consistent with NXG's 13/21 RSI chart, which has been flashing Buy Signals since December 5 (listed on the chart below).  When there is a bounce higher out of Bullish Synchronicity, a penny above the prior day's high is the Buy price.

Oliver, you will remember when IMOS had similar repeat Buy Signals in the 13/21 RSIs, when IMOS was trading in the high 5.80s to low 5.90s.  Those signals produced a rally, but only to 6.30 resistance.  Hopefully, NXG will do something better than that.  (BTW, IMOS had a nice 10% gain yesterday, after another 34/55 RSI Buy Signal at 5.97 was issued on Thursday.  IMOS closed at 6.62 yesterday).

Next post, the MACD chart.

MACD has been noodling its way higher, to the zero line.  It crossed above it by just a nose.  The reading is 0.00039, just barely positive.  Maybe that's by "just a hair on its nose."

But, it's a close above the zero line, nonetheless, and some technicians use that zero line for buy and sell signals, so in addition to the Bullish 13/21 RSIs, that could help us out.

The technicals are looking good, and NXG needs that kind of help to break out and thrust higher through nearby resistance.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart next post.

At the same time that the 13/21 RSIs began to flash Buy Signals, the 8-Day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) made a Bullish Cross of the 22-Day Kijun-sen (solid red line), and since that Bullish Cross, NXG has been finding support at the 22-Day (solid red line), and also has been forming an Ascending Triangle (purple).

That looks very nice, and now NXG is right at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which is the vertical green lines.

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) came in on Friday at 3.1275.

The high was 3.14.

The close was 3.12.

So, we're right there, "champing at the bit" for a breakout, both structurally, and based on the technicals.

You can see now why I'm using that 2.94 stop, and only wanting the 5.5% risk on this trade.  If NXG can't capitalize on all of this good stuff and breakout, I don't want it.

2.95 was the low of the FOUR 13/21RSI Buy Signals, so if that gets taken down, I won't have a clue what NXG is trying to do (other than breaking that support  :P), so I'll want out.

Daily chart, featuring resistance levels, next post.

NOTE: We're at the top of a new page now, so check the last two recent posts at the bottom of Page 3 if you missed them, if interested. 

RESISTANCE:

1. 3.14 - is our first hurdle to overcome.  That's the top of the "mini" Ascending Triangle, basis the hourly chart (black horizontal line)

2. 3.17 - is roughly where the top of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge comes in on Monday (solid blue line).  I'm not going to bother to calculate it exactly, because I won't consider the pattern broken out unless we also take out...

3. 3.20- 3.21 - which is the top of the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).

4. 3.28 - is the 200DMA.  The 50/200 DMAs are inverted, but that would get rectified on a good rally.

5. 3.35-3.36 - is the gap from the Bearish Island Reversal after NXG failed at 3.53, validating the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge as resistance.

We have our work cut out for us, don't we?  :D

We've got a decent chance though, so I'm willing to take the 5.5% risk.

Good luck to us, guys!  ;)

Hi Melf Elf,

Thank you very much for your input. I am currently in the sidelines ready to take a position in NXG. On Friday, the overall sector was down while NXG had a good session to the upside.

I have few short term concerns though, which may keep NXG from taking the short term resistance now, even tough it is technically set-up to do it.

1) The overall price of gold. Last session $GOLD formed an ugly reg candle and it is sitting just above moving averages. I would expect more pullback closer to the $600-$610 area

2) The US Dollar. Even though it is still in a downtrend in the last sessions it tried to build momentum to the upside, the weekly and daily charts indicate it may keep moving up for few more sessios or at least to test the trendline.

I will wait for more developments before pulling the trigger...

Thanks again for your great work,
Rafael :)

NORTHGATE ANNOUNCES MAJOR INCREASE IN GOLD RESOURCES AT YOUNG-DAVIDSON
Monday December 18, 8:30 am ET


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 18, 2006 -- Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX.TO - News)(AMEX:NXG - News) is pleased to report the results of a new mineral resource estimate at its Young-Davidson property near Matachewan, Ontario. The estimate combines the results to date for the 2006 drill program with the historic drilling data.
ADVERTISEMENT


New Indicated and Inferred Resources have been determined for the three zones that have been the focus of this year's drill program, namely the Lower Boundary Zone (LBZ), Lucky Zone and Lower Young-Davidson Zone (LYD). Resource estimates for the Upper Boundary Zone (UBZ) and the Open Pit which were outlined in a previous NI 43-101 technical report were left unchanged at this time because very little drilling was completed in these areas during 2006.

Highlights

- Total Measured and Indicated gold resources have increased to 1,063,060 ounces including Indicated resources of 599,100 ounces underground.

- Total Inferred gold ounces have increased slightly to 1,071,270 ounces.

- Drill hole YD-06-27 (previously unreported) targeting an area 300 metres below the Lucky Zone and between the LBZ and LYD zones intersected a new zone assaying 7.06 g/t gold over 18.3 metres core length. Interestingly, this intersection occurs in an entirely different rock type (sediments as opposed to normal syenite host) and correlates with previous lower-grade intersections above it.

Ken Stowe, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "I am very pleased that after only ten months of drilling, we are already two thirds of the way towards our goal of doubling the underground resource base at Young-Davidson. With another 50,000 metres of surface based exploration drilling scheduled for 2007, I am confident that we will surpass our initial resource goal well before we begin underground definition drilling in late 2007. Our 2006 exploration program has clearly demonstrated that the Young-Davidson property contains at least one multi-million ounce mineralized system which has not yet been limited at depth or along strike (east or west). In addition, the program has shown that gold on the property is present in several different types of host rocks, increasing the exploration potential of other areas within Northgate's large Young-Davidson claim package."

OVERVIEW OF YOUNG-DAVIDSON EXPLORATION AREA

Gold mineralization on the Young-Davidson property is present primarily in an intrusive syenite host rock dipping at approximately 70 degrees to the south. Figure 1, shown below, presents previously reported underground resource areas (Micon 2004 report, red shaded areas) and new resources (light yellow shaded areas) that are reported herein, which are largely defined by 2006 drilling. Historic mine workings and simplified geology along with the pierce points for the holes drilled so far this year are also shown. Elevations in the longitudinal section are based on an artificial mine grid where the surface is defined as 8,000 feet.

To view Figure 1, please click on the following link: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/docs/Figure1_Northgate.jpg


http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061218/0195862.html (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061218/0195862.html)

Rafael and Se7en,

Thanks for comments and for the information on the increase in gold resources.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 16, 2006, 04:39:47 AM
RESISTANCE:

2. 3.17 - is roughly where the top of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge comes in on Monday (solid blue line).  I'm not going to bother to calculate it exactly, because I won't consider the pattern broken out unless we also take out...

Today's high was 3.17, right at the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge, so that's hit #4.  We didn't give up much, closing down two cents at 3.10, but we obviously need to take out that resistance.

I almost bought CUP last week.  It had a rally of 13.77% today. 

Curses!  :D  >:D

Hi guys,

I think CUP's run was more to the reaction of the news delivered this afternoon than the technical development through out..

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061218/to256.html?.v=43

As of yesterday CUP was still trading underneath moving averages pointing down building a base around 3.25/$3.30 area. I feel more confortable investing in NXG since it has strong numbers plus the every day big volume gives me confidence on the technical develpment. jmho

Rafael ;)

Quote from: mexirafa on December 18, 2006, 05:46:24 PM
As of yesterday CUP was still trading underneath moving averages pointing down building a base around 3.25/$3.30 area. I feel more confortable investing in NXG since it has strong numbers plus the every day big volume gives me confidence on the technical develpment. jmho

Rafael,

Thanks for the news item.

I liked NXG a little better, too.  Similar chart patterns, though.  Both had big runs.  Both trading in a Bullish Falling Wedge.  Both still below their respective 200DMAs.

CUP closed below its Bullish Falling Wedge by about a penny or two, on November 17.  It regained the wedge and has held above that November 17 low, which I liked.  That suggested that November 17 was a downside fakeout, and it was, as the chart stands after yesterday's rally.

CUP's recent high on November 24 was 3.75, so yesterday's close at 3.80 on volume looks good for a challenge of its 200DMA, currently at 3.9941, and hopefully more than that for both stocks.

This one looks ready to move up again.  Looks like some accumulation since the begining of December. I'm going to have to watch this one!  ;D

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 03:00:56 AM

CUP's recent high on November 24 was 3.75, so yesterday's close at 3.80 on volume looks good for a challenge of its 200DMA, currently at 3.9941, and hopefully more than that for both stocks.

CUP opened at 4.09, up another 7½%.  TGB is up 4% on earnings.   NXG only is up a penny, despite the good news that Se7en posted yesterday.   ???  ::)  It's early, though.

CUP opened at 4.09, up another 7½%.  TGB is up 4% on earnings.   NXG only is up a penny, despite the good news that Se7en posted yesterday.   ???  ::)  It's early, though.
[/quote]

As you mentioned, so far, TGB, CUP, NXG and PD are showing positive......

I don't understand PCU today, I can't find any news why it is going opposite to the rest of the crowd.. :-\ Are we suppose to be concerned with such reaction since this is one of the industry leaders?

BTW, $COPPER is just abouve support around $300

Hopefully today NXG will break the resistance today...

Rafael :)

Quote from: mexirafa on December 19, 2006, 10:28:40 AM
I don't understand PCU today, I can't find any news why it is going opposite to the rest of the crowd.. :-\ Are we suppose to be concerned with such reaction since this is one of the industry leaders?

Rafael,

I wouldn't make much of PCU being down today.  That's probably just a reaction to yesterday's challenge of its recent high, at 58.38.  Yesterday's high was 58.23.

I'm more concerned about NXG taking out resistance here.

3.18 is nice.  That's a new high for the move, and a technical breakout of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 16, 2006, 04:39:47 AM
RESISTANCE:

2. 3.17 - is roughly where the top of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge comes in on Monday (solid blue line).  I'm not going to bother to calculate it exactly, because I won't consider the pattern broken out unless we also take out...

3. 3.20- 3.21 - which is the top of the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).

Now, we need to take out that 3.20-3.21 resistance.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 12:01:43 PM
Now, we need to take out that 3.20-3.21 resistance.

There's the 3.20.

Current BID 3.19...ASK 3.20.

Can we hear 3.21?  How 'bout that wealthy looking man in the back row?  :D

Good call, $3.23 now :D

Melf Elf, what's the 'Target in Play' if we close above that 3.20-3.21 resistance!? Tia.

So far so good,  I was late to the game (as usual), but I'm in @$3.18.  Good call Melf Elf ;D

Hi guys,

Great to know more people are on board. I had to wait for the breakouts before jumping in......in at 3.23. The volume above the average (3m/2,757,540) confirms the breakout..

In the bigger picture we are in the begining of the new trend to the upside..

Good luck

Rafael ;)

Thank you Melf for the great work. Applaud :D

Quote from: Se7en on December 19, 2006, 01:53:30 PM
Melf Elf, what's the 'Target in Play' if we close above that 3.20-3.21 resistance!? Tia.

Se7en,

Near-term...

Target #1 - 3.29 - the 200DMA
Target #2 - 3.33 - the little Ascending Triangle that had the highs of 3.14
Target #3 - 3.35-3.36 - the gap from the Halloween Bearish Island Reversal
Target #4 - 3.53 - the high of the Bearish Island Reversal
Target #5 - 3.58 - the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple on the daily)

Good luck, everyone!

Nice run!!!  Melf, you anticipated this nicely, applaud!  XNN failed to keep my portfolio green today, but NXG took over that role  in its stead 8)

We have a somewhat formidable resistance to deal with I think in the 3.29 to 3.35 range due to hitting the 200sma (3.29 now), a resistance line at 3.31, and the gap from 3.31 to 3.35.  If we break that, next stop is 3.53  :)

Melf,
I must appreciate your analysis and call. Your technical skills are awesome. You are the Man !

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 02:38:20 PM

Quote from: Se7en on December 19, 2006, 01:53:30 PM
Melf Elf, what's the 'Target in Play' if we close above that 3.20-3.21 resistance!? Tia.

Se7en,

Near-term...

Target #1 - 3.29 - the 200DMA
Target #2 - 3.33 - the little Ascending Triangle that had the highs of 3.14
Target #3 - 3.35-3.36 - the gap from the Halloween Bearish Island Reversal
Target #4 - 3.53 - the high of the Bearish Island Reversal
Target #5 - 3.58 - the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple on the daily)

Good luck, everyone!

We  already cruised past target 1, 2 and 3!  :D

Sold 20% of my NXG at 3.39 heading into the close here.  Gain: 9.0%

Holding 80% long.

Quote from: Se7en link=topic=2090.msg81668#msg81668
We  already cruised past target 1, 2 and 3!  :D

Se7en,

Yeah, and volume is looking good, too.

Good luck, everyone, this has been nice today.  ;)

Applaud Melf Elf on your trade. 
Good profit so far, I saw your entry post and liked it but never got around to open a position; but I'm glad you guys are making a profit on this one.

Bravo, what a good day. Went up more than I expected.  8) Hope we can see a continued breakout tomorrow.

First off, I have to thank and applaud tocitygirl for this post, which got me interested in studying the NXG chart:

Quote from: tocitygirl on December 12, 2006, 11:13:22 AM
I just received this from sharpeyed.com and it's about NXG.

Dear Sharpeyed.com free newsletter subscribers,

More about NXG (Strong Buy Alert)

NORTHGATE MINERALS TO ENTER THE S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061211/0193598.html

Strong Buy NXG and hold it for the run! NXG will be very huge!

Reasons to buy NXG:

1> Looking at NXG's chart, the downside risk is minimal compared to short term upside potential. There is very good support at $2.82 (Hit on Sept 25, Oct 11 and Nov 17) Each time NXG has had a nice bounce off of this number.

2> NXG is in a pretty tight trading range since Dec 1: $3.10-$2.99. Seems to have good support at the $3 level in an environment where copper has taken a beating back close to $3 and gold is basing in the mid $620's and in my opinion getting ready for a run at $660-675 by January 1. Needs to break through $3.21 to make a run at $3.54 and then $3.94.
3> NXG was just listed on the TSX due to happen on December 18th.

4> NXG's cash position is great going into 2007. Negative gold production costs thanks to copper.

5> Warrant expiration at end of month taking the draw of the $3 range away.

6> Lots of potential in stock appreciation should YD results come out and the settlement of KN permitting.

7> Regardless of #6, NXG still looks to profit handsomely from existing mine activity and with its extensive cash build up (sh/c)ould look at acquiring a new mine to alleviate production concerns for the future.

I'm not familiar with sharpeyed.com, but they had a good sense of technicals (the 3.20-3.21 resistance), in addition to their opinion on the fundamentals. 

Let us know if they've got any more of these, tocitygirl, will you?  :D  ;)

Quote from: vivdcosta on December 19, 2006, 03:34:17 PM
Melf,
I must appreciate your analysis and call. Your technical skills are awesome. You are the Man !

Thank you, vivdcosta.  What was particularly nice about yesterday's TRIPLE  breakout was that we got to see in real time, a good example of how the technicals sometimes can function as lead indicators, helping us to anticipate those breakouts. 

I wrote a piece about lead indicators, coincident indicators, and lagging/confirming indicators in Melf's Workshop on the Personal Log Board about a week ago, if anyone wishes to read it.

Ahead of yesterday's breakouts, we knew in advance that we had FOUR Buy Signals in the 13/RSI, a Buy Signal in the MACD, crossing above the zero line, and that NXG was sitting at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), "champing at the bit" for a breakout.

All of that technical strength not only was telegraphing a possible breakout,  it also helped us to muscle through some resistance levels, and helped us to achieve some of our targets.

A flaw in the technicals is the fact that the 50/200DMAs still are inverted, but those generally are lagging/confirming indicators.  A Bullish Cross in those often comes after a stock already has enjoyed a decent rally, but we still want to see that at some point, for confirmation of what we already know: NXG broke out (lagging indicator).

As Rafael mentioned yesterday, the volume on the breakout was good: 2 times average daily, roughly, on both a 22-day and 100-day basis (that's what Scottrade gives me, which is fine), so that looks very good.

Quote from: sanmiguelarcangel on December 19, 2006, 10:20:46 PM
Bravo, what a good day. Went up more than I expected.  8) Hope we can see a continued breakout tomorrow.

sanmiguel,

Yes, it would be nice to see some follow-thru today, but we made a lot of progress yesterday (more than I expected, too), so we might give some back, or just trade sideways a bit.

"Former Resistance 'should be' Support," so on any pullback, we've got support at:

1. 3.29 - the 200DMA

2. 3.21-3.20 - the top of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple)

3. 3.14 - the little Ascending Triangle (black line), and 3.14 also is about where the top of the Big 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge is.

After yesterday's nice breakout, we really don't want to see anything under 3.14.  That would be a take down of all THREE bullish pattern breakouts (The Big Bullish Falling Wedge...The Purple Ascending Triangle...the Black Ascending Triangle).  :P

I'm raising my stop to 3.12, for a fractional gain on my remaining 80% long position from 3.11, although I'd be tempted to sell if our 3.21-3.20 gets violated.  That would be  sloppy.  A violatiion of 3.14 would be very, very sloppy.  I definitely would sell that.

Quote from: shaker340 on December 19, 2006, 01:54:57 PM
So far so good,  I was late to the game (as usual), but I'm in @$3.18.  Good call Melf Elf ;D

Shaker,

Your 3.18 entry wasn't late at all.  That was the breakout of the Bullish Falling Wedge, and you were in ahead of the 3.21-3.20 Ascending Triangle breakout.  You did just fine.

In fact, everyone buying the breakout above 3.21-3.20, like Rafael, also did fine.  Nothing at all wrong with waiting for the actual technical breakout.  We might not have gotten it.

Good luck with this one, everyone.  I hope that we all can make some nice $$$ on it.  I appreciate everyone's participation and feedback.  Thank you. 

Today NXG volume is good, up 3 cents, I think tomorrow it will touch 3.53

Question?

Could these warrants have an impact in the price development?
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061129/0189677.html

Thanks,
Rafael :)

Quote from: wzhang on December 20, 2006, 03:08:14 PM
Today NXG volume is good, up 3 cents,

wzhang,

Yes, another 5 million share day.  ;)

We finished on a Bearish Doji Star Hangman, but after Tuesday's big breakout, yesterday's trading looked more like a high-level consolidation of the gains rather than anything bearish.  I only would be concerned if we put in a big black candle today, and close below the 3.21-3.20 Ascending Triangle breakout.

Quote
I think tomorrow it will touch 3.53

That would be nice.  ;)

Stepping down the fibonacci sequence in the RSIs, the 34RSI had a bullish thrust above its shadow, the 55RSI, on Tuesday's rally.

We can see from this 34/55RSI chart that the only other occurrence of that since the correction began last May, was in October, when NXG failed at the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge on a Bearish Island Reversal.

On all other attempts by the 34RSI to climb above its 55RSI shadow, it failed.

On this go-round, the 34RSI got above its 55RSI shadow on Friday, December 15.  It pulled back to Bullish Synchronicity on Monday, December 18 when NXG printed 3.17, right at the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge, but closed down two cents to 3.10.

That made 3.17, Monday's high, the Buy "pivot," and a print of 3.18 (where Shaker made his brilliant entry into the stock  :D), the actual Buy Signal.  3.18, everyone will remember, also was the technical breakout of the Bullish Falling Wedge.  Nice.

So, in addition to the FOUR Buy Signals that we got from the 13/21 RSIs, we've got a technical Buy Signal out of the more intermediate-term 34/55RSIs, at 3.18. 

It's important that it doesn't "roll over and die," like it did in late October, which is why we don't want to see 3.21-3.20 support, or 3.14 support get taken down.

Quote from: mexirafa on December 20, 2006, 03:22:11 PM
Question?

Could these warrants have an impact in the price development?
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061129/0189677.html

Rafael,

I doubt it, or we wouldn't have broken out and rallied to well above $3.00 just a week ahead of that expiry, if trading publicly next week at $3.00 were a threat, but check with your broker if you're concerned about it.  Ask to have the mechanics of the warrant exercise explained to you, and then explain it to us, will ya?  :D

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 21, 2006, 03:28:06 AM
I only would be concerned if we put in a big black candle today, and close below the 3.21-3.20 Ascending Triangle breakout.

Unfortunately, that might be just what we get today.  :P

CNBC even featured the copper stocks this morning,   :P

That type of thing used to be enough to "scare me" out of a trade, then I'd find the stock up the next day, and in the following days thereafter.

The technicals have been so strong on this breakout in NXG, I want to give it as much latitude as possible, however, given the fact that copper is looking so lousy, I recognize that NXG is being dragged down "in sympathy," even though it isn't a pure play in copper.

As all of you know, I'm a technician, so I don't bother much with trying to figure out the interplay between the commodity and the stocks.  If I did, I probably wouldn't have played NXG, because copper already was looking pretty lousy, and that would have put me off it.

We've already broken below the 200DMA today, which is at 3.30

3.22 is .618 fibonacci retracement of the breakout candle.

3.21-3.20 is the top of our larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple) breakout.

I've decided to be a little more demanding of NXG in this environment, and to sell it if it's set to close below 3.20. which would give me a little better than 2% gain on my remaining 80% long position.

Just wanted to give all of you a heads up, so you can make your own decisions.

The low in NXG, so far, is 3.25.

NXG currently is BID 3.30...ASK 3.30, right at the 200DMA.

Good luck, everyone!   

Oh, swell...Cramer just called for a COLLAPSE in Copper, say, "I don't want anything to do with copper.  Sell Southern Peru..."

If tha-at doesn't put us back below 321-3.20, we might be okay.  ;)

NXG is hanging in there, still at the 200DMA.

Heres what I have as far as TA - I see major support at 3.20 (much below this and Ill look for an exit)

In at 3.29 - Perfect entry would be $3.22-3.25

3.13 stop loss

Given the drop in copper, and given that the related stocks got "Cramerized," (as cumulina puts it) by his call for a collapse in copper, NXG suffered some guilt by association due to its exposure to copper, but it held up surprisingly well last week.

There is weakness in the copper fundamentals, but technically, we've still got the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout, and we're still above that. 

As a technician, I always defer to the technicals over the fundamentals, and since NXG hasn't done anything wrong, technically, I'll stay with my plan, which is:

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 21, 2006, 01:43:39 PM
I've decided to be a little more demanding of NXG in this environment, and to sell it if it's set to close below 3.20. which would give me 2-3% gain on my remaining 80% long position.

I'll also sell more into strength, if we get to the next target IN PLAY.

Quote
Just wanted to give all of you a heads up, so you can make your own decisions.

If any of you decide to cash in and take the money, I wouldn't blame you at all.  It's an 8% gain here from my 3.11 entry, and a number of you got in it for less than I did.  NXG has been outperforming sector-related stocks, but it could succumb to the negative fundamentals.

Good luck to everyone!

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 26, 2006, 03:33:24 AM
I'll also sell more into strength, if we get to the next target IN PLAY.

Sold another 20% of my NXG at 3.54, between Targets #4 and #5.  Gain: 13.8%

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 02:38:20 PM
Near-term...

Target #1 - 3.29 - the 200DMA - MADE
Target #2 - 3.33 -  little Ascending Triangle that had the highs of 3.14 - MADE
Target #3 - 3.35-3.36 -  gap from the Halloween Bearish Island Reversal - MADE
Target #4 - 3.53 - the high of the Bearish Island Reversal - MADE
Target #5 - 3.58 - the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple on the daily)

Target #4, 3.53 MADE

We got a nice candle today testing 3.55 resistance - unfortionately we weren't able to make a close above that level. Should NXG candle and close above 3.55 , 3.90 would be in play... Shocked

I have moved my stop to 3.31 (200 day) and am debating on something a little higher even...

-calven

"NXG" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   ;)               
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.     ;)             
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$       ;D 
   

Happy New Year ! May it be Prosperous for all @ 3SOF......   ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 26, 2006, 03:33:24 AM
As a technician, I always defer to the technicals over the fundamentals, and since NXG hasn't done anything wrong, technically, I'll stay with my plan

The technicals still look strong, e.g., the 34/55RSIs are moving higher, coming off the December 20 Buy Signal at 3.18.

Sold another 10% of my NXG at 3.58.  Gain: 15.1%

Holding 50% of the long position.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 02:38:20 PM

Target #1 - 3.29 - the 200DMA
Target #2 - 3.33 - the little Ascending Triangle that had the highs of 3.14
Target #3 - 3.35-3.36 - the gap from the Halloween Bearish Island Reversal
Target #4 - 3.53 - the high of the Bearish Island Reversal
Target #5 - 3.58 - the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple on the daily)

Target #5: 3.58 MADE.  That's a new high for the move, confirming the strength in the 34/55 RSIs (lead indicator).

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070103/0199644.html

NORTHGATE ISSUES 37,908,233 COMMON SHARES UPON EXERCISE OF COMMON SHARE PURCHASE WARRANTS
Wednesday January 3, 6:47 pm ET

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 3, 2007 -- Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX.TO - News)(AMEX:NXG - News) ("Northgate") today announced that prior to their expiry at 5:00 pm (EST) on December 28, 2006, 37,908,233 of Northgate's publicly traded common share purchase warrants were exercised and an identical number of Northgate common shares were issued. The warrants exercised represented 99.3% of the warrants that were outstanding prior to expiry and as a result of the exercise, the number of issued and outstanding common shares of Northgate has now risen to 253,684,813.

Both series of warrants (CUSIP numbers 666416169 and 666416177) have now been de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange and all remaining unexercised warrants are valueless.

Northgate Minerals Corporation is a gold and copper mining company focused on operations and opportunities in the Americas. The Corporation's principal assets are the 300,000-ounce per year Kemess South mine in north-central British Columbia, the adjacent Kemess North deposit, which contains a Proven and Probable Reserve of 4.1 million ounces of gold and the Young-Davidson gold property in northern Ontario. Northgate is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol NGX and on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol NXG.

Forward-Looking Statements

This news release includes certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements include estimates, forecasts, and statements as to management's expectations with respect to, among other things, future metal production and production costs, potential mineralization and reserves, exploration results, progress in the development of mineral properties, demand and market outlook for commodities and future plans and objectives of Northgate Minerals Corporation (Northgate). Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "expect", "intend", "estimate", "anticipate", "believe", or "continue" or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from Northgate's expectations are disclosed under the heading "Risk and Uncertainties" in Northgate's 2005 Annual Report and under the heading "Risk Factors" in Northgate's 2005 Annual Information Form (AIF) both of which are filed with Canadian regulators on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov). Northgate expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Quote from: rurouni on January 04, 2007, 12:57:06 AM
NORTHGATE ISSUES 37,908,233 COMMON SHARES UPON EXERCISE OF COMMON SHARE PURCHASE WARRANTS
Wednesday January 3, 6:47 pm ET

Wayne,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

I don't know what effect that will have on trading in NXG, but I've realized that I should have sold my remaining 50% long position yesterday at 3.40, a penny below last Friday's low.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 28, 2006, 09:40:09 AM
Sold another 10% of my NXG at 3.58.  Gain: 15.1%

Target #5: 3.58 MADE.  That's a new high for the move, confirming the strength in the 34/55 RSIs (lead indicator).

I was half-tempted to sell all of my remaining position when Target #5 MADE, since it was the last of my short-term targets, but I couldn't find reason to do it because:

1. The technicals looked very good

2. We had taken out the October high of 3.53, so it looked like we were going higher (and we still might).

December 28 was a Bearish Engulfer off the 3.59 high, but that didn't bother me too much, given how bullish NXG has been acting.

We finished 2006 on a Bear Flag/Rising Channel (pattern in red), the low of which was 3.41 on December 29.  Rising Channels aren't always bearish, though, especially in stocks that are acting bullish, like NXG, which broke out and made FIVE upside targets.  That last candle of 2006 (December 29) also looked like a Bullish Hammer off the bottom of the channel.

Nope.  :'(

Yesterday, January 3, the bottom of the Bear Flag/Rising Channel came in at 3.49.  NXG opened at 3.50, printed 3.51, then started tanking.  :P

I really should have used the downside takeout of Friday's 3.41 low (so, 3.40) as my stop, because:

1. We had the Bearish Engulfer off Target #5, 3.58.

2. The Bear Flag/Rising Channel got broken to the downside on the print of 3.48 yesterday, suggesting at least short-term bearishness.

3. The prior low of the Bear Flag;/Rising Channel (3.41) then got taken down, confirming the short-term bearishness.

4. Volume on the tank increased, and we finished the day at over 4 million shares, with NXG closing down 5.5%, at 3.29. 

Bottom line: 3.21-3.20 key support hasn't been broken and still could hold, but I think that I made a mistake not selling it yesterday, at 3.40. 

I'll sell my remaining 50% of NXG at the open this morning.

Sold remaining 50% NXG at the open for 3.21.  Gain: 3.2% 

Gain on the trade: 7.7%

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 04, 2007, 05:02:25 AM
Wayne,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

I don't know what effect that will have on trading in NXG, but I've realized that I should have sold my remaining 50% long position yesterday at 3.40, a penny below last Friday's low.

Hi Melf,

You are welcome.  I made a mistake of:


Turned a decent gain into a small loss.

Quote from: rurouni on January 04, 2007, 12:38:43 PM
[You are welcome.  I made a mistake of:

1. Not watching my stocks more closely
2. Hesitating to sell when NXG dropped 3-4% yesterday.  I should have sold it when I knew that it was out of character for NXG to behave that way.  It rarely drop that much.

Turned a decent gain into a small loss.

Wayne,

Sorry to hear that, darn it.  I didn't play my exit well on the last 50%, either.   :P

In addition to not selling the break of the Bear Flag below 3.41, I did too much holiday celebrating and didn't even notice the H&S Top on the Hourly Chart.  The neckline also was 3.41...3.41, so not selling the print of 3.40 was a DOUBLE mistake, since two patterns broke right at 3.40.

Curses!  :P  >:D

The H&S Top put 3.23 IN PLAY, which MADE on the gap down opening.

Math:

3.59 - High
3.41 - Neckline

3.59 - 3.41 = 0.18 points.  3.41 - 0.18 points = Target: 3.23

I hated selling on the gap down at the open, to 3.21, but that turned out alright.  I was tempted to wait for a gap-filling rally, but when it's time to sell, it's time to sell!

That would have been Mistake #3.  The gap wasn't filled, and I would have been stopped out for almost no gain on the remaining 50% when 3.14 support (the top of the little Ascending Triangle) got broken on the drop to 3.12.

Thanks for sharing your mistakes, Wayne.  Applause.   There always are opportunities to make them, and it helps a lot to learn from them, and try not to repeat them.

Given the mistakes that I made, I really don't deserve the 7.7% gain, but at least I learned to "Take profits when targets get MADE," and that saved my behind, selling into the five targets that got MADE.

Good luck, Wayne.  You'll get 'em next time.  Good to see you posting again!  I never did get those Wolfe Wave formulas to work out in the Metastock Explorer, by the way.  Thanks again for your help on that.

I played this stock poorly also, I should have gotten out around $3.55, but I made the mistake of not setting my stop, which cost me all the way down to $2.97. That was not a good way to start out the new year :-[

Quote from: shaker340 on January 05, 2007, 10:30:01 AM
I played this stock poorly also, I should have gotten out around $3.55, but I made the mistake of not setting my stop, which cost me all the way down to $2.97. That was not a good way to start out the new year :-[

Shaker,

I'm sorry for your loss, but I appreciate and admire your sharing that information so that  we all can help each other to learn from our mistakes, and to do better.  Applause.

Best of luck to you for the rest of 2007.  We have lots of time to improve!  ;)

Im still holding from 3.29 - not getting shaken, good stock, great earnings, great future and a LT upward trend... its going to take sustained movement below $3.00 for me to dump this.

As you can see NXG candled on the previous resistance line - perfectly normal  ;D

Now if we get another move below 3.00  im exiting....

calven

At 3.51 now and looking strong!

Anyone have any new TA perspective on NXG? Seems to me like we are just battling 3.60 resistance for now... Would love to see the 200 day MA hold.

calven

Hey Calven,

Haven't really been following NXG, but had a little look at the chart, and to me it looks like NXG is really chomping at the bit for a breakout.  The long term chart shows 2 ascending triangles, the one that formed over the summer broke down in September, finding support around 2.80.  As far as I can tell, that was basically the target of the triangle breakdown.  The ascending triangle that has been forming since now looks like it is set to break to the upside.  I give it a target of (3.53-2.62 = .89, + 3.53) = 4.42.

However, as I know you already experienced, it had an upside fakeout at the end of December that broke to the downside, actually piercing the bottom of the triangle, but held it on a closing basis.  I have to say, that took some resilience to hold through, as when it breached 3.00 intraday it must have been looking REAL ugly!!

In addition to this, as you have pointed out previously, there is a large symmetrical triangle on the 1 year chart that broke out in December and the subsequent breakdown made a succussful retest of the support line of this large triangle.  This to me also suggests upside continuation over the medium term.

Right now, NXG has already tested the upside resistance area twice in the last 3 days, topping out at 3.55.  Fridays candle was an inside day, which suggests a bullish resolution.  I agree with you and wouldn't like to see NXG close below 3.40 (the 200MA and also horizontal support).  This would suggest another retrace back to ascending support.  Also a third failure at this resistance level, could signal another triangle breakdown.  As a potential new entrant into the stock, I am looking for a clear breakout from this resistance level, which would be a candle that is set to close over 3.55, key short term resistance.  Note also that the last 4 months have developed into an ascending channel which currently tops out at 3.90, the resistance level of the previous triangle.  That would be my short term target on any breakout, as NXG may need a real push to get through this level.  But if it does, I could see it moving up to make that AT target around 4.42, as NXG has only seen a few weeks of trading above $4.

Thanks for your help buddy. Now the only major thing I see for NXG is HEAVY resistance at 3.90 (the top of the ascending triangle breakdown months ago)

My price by volume charts also indicate HEAVY resistance there. Any thoughts on that specifically? I know you commented on it at the end - but whats it going to take to get us through that? Metal prices dont seem to be helping at the moment.

Right calven, jumped in with you this morning at 3.55.  Loks like we got the break there.  First target is clearly 3.90, and I may look at taking some profits there.  It seems like there is a lot of talk about gold pushing through 640-640 resistance, which would bode well for the sector.  Do you know what the ticker is for gold futures?

Hey, I own NXG and KRY - I see gold going above 700 this year.

I go to www.kitco.com for gold quotes. For copper you can go to kitcometals.com - Not sure on a ticker though.

I was also looking into buying some Natural Gas stocks shortly. I would love for Natty gas to make a major dip - $NATGAS (ticker) I ABP & NGAS

Copper looks like it could rebound or at least base here as well...in case you didnt know NXG mines gold AND copper.

GOTTA love yesterday and todays candles above 3.60 resistance!

cal

Absolutely!!  And how it broke 3.64 towards the end of the day, it had been sitting there all day!  I think we will see continuation tomorrow, NXG (and AUY which I also bought just recently) feels strong right now - next stop 3.90.  Might look into a copper play again - maybe TGB or PCU?

We filled that tiny gap to 3.80 today. Not even sure if that had anything to do with todays top. Any thoughts here going forward. Maybe a 3-4% sell off tomorrow - profit taking and slight gold weakness?

Not sure if nxg will make it to 3.90 gold -3.20 in the spot market as of 2:55 ET

Calven,

I'm looking to just sit on it and ride this one with a stop just below the september gap of 3.48.  It could get a little bit of trouble with the 3.80-90 area, but I like the development of this chart, with the big symmetric triangle breakout and the more recent ascending triangle breakout.  Any pullback should I hope find support around 3.55, and sitting where it is I think there is a decent chance of getting that breakout above the key 3.90 level in the next few weeks.  Need to do more DD on this one and have a look into earnings etc to see whether we could have a catalyst for this move in the near future.

NXG could be a good aquisition target... TONS of cash.

Furthermore, NXG's gold and copper are hedged- meaning regardless of metal fluctuations they sell at that given price. Nevertheless, gold and copper going up is not a bad thing.

ALso take a look at natural gas....ABP i like - todays candle was awesome...maybe a 3.25 entry for me. (1/4 position to get my feet wet) then add the last 3/4 when i see where ngas is headed. POSITIVE divergence on the $NATGAS chart today.

Have a look at the competitor and industry breakdown for NXG.  I just can't figure it out... why is NXG SO CHEAP????

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=NXG (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=NXG)

It has a P/E of only 6.7 compared to an industry average of over 30, it is growing fast, (yoy rev growth for 06 is expected to be over 30% based on analysts forecasts for this Q).  It has a very strong balance sheet, with a current ratio of over 5, as you said loads of cash, very little long term debt.  OK its much smaller than the competitors posted here, but I'm really not sure what is discounting this stock so heavily.  Even at a P/E of 16, on current 06 eps estimates of .56, this stock should be trading at $9/share.  Just doesn't add up.

Is there a spanner in the works here or is NXG just massively undervalued?  I might see i I can get David to have a look at this... he might have an idea.

Been in NXG with some nice profits and bought more (recommended by Sharpeyed) based on the potential.  Seems undervalued to me, but I'm not really sure about the timing of the moves. 

Good analysis.

I know they added more shares...also are hedged below current gold prices which is somewhat negative...

idk have david check it out on the video analysis section ;D

I think we figured out the reason for the discount.  For some reason (perhaps because they are a Canadian traded company also on AMEX they do not provide any of their filings with/to the SEC.  Can't find any 10Qs on them anywhere.  Maybe they are available through their lsiting on the TSX.

Anyway, without clear reporting and financial visibility, its pretty obvious that Wall St would not be keen to invest.  I don' know, NXGis having a hard time with 3.80 resistance here, I'm beginning to think it might be better to put my money into a NYSE listed gold stock instead - after all the DOW is rocking right now, and maybe look to buy NXG back on the break.  We haven't even moved into the 3.80-3.90 range yet and I still anticipate significant resistance throughout this area.

As you say if their gold and copper prices are hedged, it may make it tough for them to realise much from a rebound in metal prices.

Well gold and copper prices rising is never a bad thing for NXG ....

We are also about to get some volatility VERY soon.  An ascending triangle with a neckline of 3.81 and support line at 3.70 is there. (60 min 2 week chart in scottrader) If this drops below that support line i may bail and take my heavy gains. Got to remember 3.80-3.90 is HUGE resistance. There are lots of bagholders at 3.90 that got burned during the drop in September. We get above 4.00 and we make a run at all time highs  ;D

Lots to think about- seems like good risk reward. With gold so strong I dont see how I can sell just yet. Right now it seems as if those bagholders are being absorbed at current levels. Clear skies if we get through that.

Also keep an eye on the short % - over a million shares short, worth about .30 in a cover situation.

GL
calven

I sold my NXG today at 3.78, liked the early move above 3.80, but when it turned back below 3.80 my mood soured a bit.  (Actually, I decided to go on a bit of selling spree today, just to lock in some profits and clear my books a bit.  I reckon that I willwait it out for that break above 3.90 to get back in.  I may have to pay up for it though.  In the meantime I may well  put some cash in some other gold stocks.  Man I wish I'd picked up some PCU too!!!

NXG plugging along again - wish i wouldnt have sold but made a nice profit  ;D

I am in NXG now and hoping for a break above $4.  With the way gold is going, seems like just a matter of time now. Also holding AUY and SLV.

I have this one since may last year.  Bought almost in the top  :-[  I really hope break soon above 4. 

The weekly chart since last October forms a  cup and handle pattern, the only thing missisng is some strong volume in the walls of the cup.  Anyway, looks like we all agree that a break of 4 is significant, its not far away and gold doesnt seem to be slowing down at all  ;)

Interesting action today with volume  greater than average.  Keep an eye if it crosses the resistance. Testing my patience.

NXG finally made its breakout!!! closed at 3.97 on very solid volume, currently trading pre-market above $4.

Looks like NXG wants to clear that resistance level and we could see some solid upside here.  I'm looking to buy this morning...

I'm in........Breakout looking to happen soon I hope. :o  :o

Just couldn't leave the second gap unclosed   :'(

I should have known.   :-[

The value on NXG seems to be great, almost no debt, profitable and low price to book and low price to sales.

Jewelry companies do not buy Silver and Gold the first and second quarter of the year. Jewelry companies buy lots of gold and silver the third quarter in preparation for Christmas sales.

It is usually best to wait till June before getting into Silver and Gold mining but with the value of nxg, it could bounce off the 50-day MA.

With their new two mines just picking up production, this stock should rise to 5 to 7 based on value alone.

So wait for a MACD buy signal and you can't go wrong on the timing of the entry point.


52wk Range: 0.55 - 2.96
Volume: 2,813,021
Avg Vol (3m): 2,505,660
Market Cap: 514.27M
P/E (ttm): 41.02
EPS (ttm): 0.05

Technicals
Close Below the 50-day MA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
-4.05%below 13-day MA
5.72%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 73 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $286.66 
P/E Ratio: 9.17 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/10/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform

Strong bounce off the 50-day MA... ;) :D ;D

NXG has been acquiring operating mines and refurbishing its existing mines to increase production and extend mine life. They have also discovered new extensions of veins running off their existing mines and have been increasing their stated reserves available for future development.

Their cost of gold production was about $421 in 2008 and is expected to be about $461 in 2009. They are forcasting an 11% increase in gold production, to almost 400,000 ounces. In addition, they will produce some 54M pounds of copper. Cost reductions from new equipment, mining higher grades of ore, and lower energy and other prices are benefitting the bottom line.

With small miners, you get higher leverage. A small rise in the price of gold results in a big increase in their marginal profits. NXG estimated that an increase of $25 in the price of gold would result in about $10M additional free cash flow. Since gold has recently risen over $100, that should translate into at least $40M extra profit above what they estimated at the end of 2008.

The stock is up big this year already, but it's got lots of room to run higher.

52wk Range: 0.55 - 2.89
Volume: 3,116,337
Avg Vol (3m): 2,537,780
Market Cap: 608.93M
P/E (ttm): 48.57
EPS (ttm): 0.05
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
12.01%above 13-day MA
24.09%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 86 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $286.66 
P/E Ratio: 9.17 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/10/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform

The Greatest Gold Stock in the World
By Christopher Barker
July 14, 2011

I just put together my Top 10 Gold Stocks for New Money Now series, and already two of my very favorite picks in the sector are joining forces to build the newest dominant prospect among the mid-tier miners of gold.

On Wednesday, Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG) dove into its proverbial pot of gold with an all-stock offer to acquire Primero Mining (OTC: MNOCF). Primero shareholders will receive 1.5 Northgate shares for each Primero share and hold 31% of the pro forma Northgate. Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) , with a 35.5% stake in Primero, will hold 11% of pro forma Northgate after voting its shares in favor of the deal. This is the most exciting gold deal I've seen since Primero's founding transaction about a year ago, so let me try to explain what I like so much.

Northgate Minerals had been temporarily stymied by a brief gap in its development pipeline, and it was staring down some slim production volumes at substantially elevated costs from its two Australian mines over the next several months. In the meantime, forward-looking Fools capitalized on the opportunity to position themselves for years of profitable mining from the Young-Davidson mine beginning early next year. As soon as the ink dries on this deal, Northgate will have filled its near-term production gap in one fell swoop -- and filled it in style with comfortably profitable gold and silver production from one of Mexico's truly legendary mines. With Primero's annual threshold of 3.5 million ounces of silver already delivered to stream-holder Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) for 2011, Northgate will now enjoy lucrative spot-price exposure for 50% of silver produced through the remainder of the year.

Primero Mining had remained underappreciated, deeply undervalued, and even unknown to many U.S. investors since the company leapt onto the scene last year by acquiring Goldcorp's San Dimas mine. Since U.S. investors typically had to venture onto the Pink Sheets to access Primero's shares, I eagerly awaited a U.S. listing to enhance the stock's visibility. This deal accomplishes that feat in dramatic fashion! At the same time, Primero's president and CEO, Joe Conway -- revered within the industry for his leadership in building IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG) into a mid-tier powerhouse -- will now lead Northgate Minerals as its new CEO through a targeted 72% pro forma production expansion within just two years! With increased capacity at San Dimas and Young-Davidson ramping up toward full production during 2012, Northgate expects to catapult from 320,000 pro forma ounces of gold in 2011 to 550,000 ounces in 2013.

Just this week I wrote the 7 Secrets to Profitable Gold Investing, where (here in Part 3 of the series) I discussed Primero's unrivaled outlook for exploration upside as a key factor behind the stock's No. 2 ranking within my most recent gold recommendations. Strangely enough, Northgate had previously earned the No. 2 spot within my Top 10 Gold Stocks for 2011 last December.

So what do you get when you combine my former No. 2 gold stock recommendation with my current No. 2 pick? Simply stated, and hands down, you get the premier investment vehicle for growth-hungry gold investors. That's right, this perfect pairing forces me to adjust my rankings once more, and place Northgate Minerals -- ahead of even the venerable Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD) -- as my new No. 1 pick in the sector. Moreover, for a beautifully balanced arrangement of exposure to gold assets primarily located in the mining-friendly jurisdictions of Canada and Mexico, a Foolish trio of top-three gold stocks -- Northgate Minerals, Brigus Gold, and AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ) -- could collectively offer a perfect pairing.

•Add Northgate Minerals to My Watchlist
•Add Brigus Gold to My Watchlist
•Add IAMGOLD to My Watchlist
•Add Goldcorp to My Watchlist
•Add Silver Wheaton to My Watchlist

Uptick in Gold Demand Benefits Brigus Gold and Northgate Minerals
13-day MA crossover the 50-day MA
Day's Range: 2.99 - 3.19
52wk Range: 2.41 - 3.54
Volume: 6,834,768
Avg Vol (3m): 2,126,920
Market Cap: 916.68M

Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
10.67%above 13-day EMA
13.42%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 88